IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff


Cliff,

In the first 11 months of 2004, machine tool demand stood at $2.670
billion, up 43 percent from $1.867 billion in the same 2003 period,
the data show.

The machine tools report is generally based on a survey of about 200
manufacturers, distributors and importers of machine tools that
represent 76 percent of the machine tool market.

Manufacturing industry optimism continued to pay dividends for
equipment builders as sales of US machine tools in September reached
the highest level in four years. With September sales totaling $389.20
million, machine tool builders saw an increase in sales of 74.6% over
$222.86 million reported for September 2003, according to the latest
figures of the US Machine Tool Consumption (USMTC) report released by
the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association (AMTDA, Rockville,
MD) and AMT--The Association For Manufacturing Technology (McLean,
VA).

The latest report showed sales rose 89.8% in September compared to
August sales of $205.01 million, and the 2004 year-to-date total of
$2146.95 million rose 42.2% versus 2003 sales of $1509.41 million
through September. The figures are based on the totals of actual data
reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

"Manufacturing in the US continues to show signs of a strong
comeback," according to AMTDA President Ralph J. Nappi. "Machine tool
orders in September hit their highest level in four years with all
regions of the country showing growth."

Regional sales showed strong overall gains paced by robust
improvements in the West Region, which totaled September sales of
$56.07 million, an increase of 72.1% over $32.59 million in August
sales and a 196.1% leap over the September 2003 total of $18.94
million. The West Region's year-to-date total of $279.39 million rose
89.6% over September 2003 sales of $147.33 million.

In the Midwest, September sales of $162.77 million rose 156.5% over
the prior month's $63.47 million in sales and increased 46.6% compared
with sales of $111.03 million during September 2003. With a
year-to-date total of $853.66 million, the Midwest region is 43.2%
ahead of $595.99 in sales through September 2003.


No gloom in this report:

http://www.sme.org/gmn/mag/2005/05jam002/05jam002.html

Regards


Daveb

They are not the biggest, but Haas has been increasing sales every
year- and 40% of their sales are exports, much of it to China.
There are a couple of hundred companies left in the USA that make
various sorts of machine tools- but almost none make manual lathes or
mills-
Bridgeport, owned by Hardinge, makes mills here, and they say they will
make you an HLV- if you have 60 grand or so. Monarch mostly repairs and
rebuilds.
Ingersoll Rand is owned by an Italian family, but they still build big
machines to order.
A variety of other specialty companies make ironworkers, bandsaws,
grinders, sanders, presses, lasers, and so on.
Welders are still made here by Lincoln, Miller, and Esab.

There sure arent as many manufacturers as there used to be, and a lot
of low end stuff comes from china, and high end stuff from europe or
japan. But there still is some stuff made here.

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff


The U.S. machine tool market finished the year 2004 with orders more
than 40 percent above 2003 levels and shipments up 25 percent.
Consumption, whether measured by orders or shipments, had fallen more
than 60 percent from its peaks in 1998. Strong growth over the past
two years still leaves the U.S. manufacturing technology market at
less than 60 percent of its peak in 1998.

The short-term prospects are promising. The consensus outlook among
analysts who follow the U.S. manufacturing technology market on a
regular basis indicates a continued rise in orders this year. The
optimistic forecast is for double-digit growth in 2005 while forecasts
for the following years diverge. Many of the analysts feel that the
best opportunities are in the present, and that some sectors in the
manufacturing technology markets will begin to slow as early as 2006.

The signs of a recovery in capital spending have been clear for
several years. The traditional signals for an imminent increase in
capital spending are capacity utilization and the Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI), an independent survey of manufacturers’ buying plans.
Both of these began moving upwards in the second quarter of 2003. The
capacity utilization index for durable manufacturing turned upward in
April 2003, and the PMI index rose to over 50 (a signal of increased
spending & growth in manufacturing) in May 2003.

Key customer markets -- such as autos, off-road and highway
construction equipment, and appliances -- have seen growth in U.S.
consumer demand slow down in recent months. The outlook for expansion
of capacity to supply a growing U.S. demand for durable goods is
weakening. The key to a continuation of the capital-spending boom will
depend upon the fortunes of the export markets for U.S.-built capital
goods and non-traditional, but expanding, domestic markets such as the
medical equipment industry.

The weakened dollar and the elimination of punitive tariffs on U.S.
goods shipped to the European Union (EU) have made U.S. products much
more attractive in Western European markets. Exports of both
manufactured products and manufacturing technology equipment
illustrate the temporary competitive advantages provided by exchange
rates shifts. Expectations are that the dollar will steady against the
European currencies this year, but fall further against Asian
currencies.

The resulting implicit price cut in U.S. durable goods could spark a
renewed need for capital equipment by U.S. manufacturers supplying
Asian markets. The weakened dollar relative to Asian currencies is
likely to also lead to increased exports of U.S. manufacturing
technology, as these products will also be less expensive relative to
comparable European and Japanese products in Asian markets.

Still a leader

America continues to excel in important categories, including:
metrology; composite tape-laying machines; transfer lines and systems;
small, medium and large-size CNC machining centers; spar and skin
mills for aircraft components; abrasive flow machining for difficult
finishing problems; CNC turning centers; assembly systems; grinding
machines; punch presses for materials over 60 mm thick; and spiral
bevel and parallel axis gear-making machinery. In addition, the U.S.
holds a leadership position in water jet cutting and laser processing
machines, as well as in the technology for developing small assembly
robots.

The United States leads in the development and production of machines
to produce parts using the process of stereolithography. Work
continues to enable a broader selection of materials. Other new
technologies build metal components by selectively binding metal
powder layer by layer.

The United States also leads in the introduction of open architecture
controls which provide users with a wider choice of communication
interfaces and the ability to develop their own proprietary
applications.

These trends will be seen at the next International Manufacturing
Technology Show (IMTS), September 6-13, 2006, at Chicago’s McCormick
Place. The newest manufacturing technology equipment from around the
world will be seen by close to 100,000 visitors.

The U.S. industry’s trade group is AMT-The Association For
Manufacturing Technology (founded in 1902 as the National Machine Tool
Builders' Association). The association supports and promotes the U.S.
manufacturing technology industry and provides U.S. builders of
manufacturing systems with the latest information on technical
developments, training methods, trade and marketing opportunities, and
economic issues. It also gathers and disseminates information about
world markets, promotes its members' products in those markets, and
acts as a representative on manufacturing technology matters to
governments and trade organizations throughout the world.

In 1993, AMT opened an office in Beijing — the first trade association
to establish a presence in the vast China market. The association also
has offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou, and last year opened a
USA/Technology and Service Center in Shanghai. It also has an office
and Technical Center in Monterrey, Mexico. Visit www.AMTonline.org for
updated information


Regards
Daveb

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:29:19 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff


Cliff,

In the first 11 months of 2004, machine tool demand stood at $2.670
billion, up 43 percent from $1.867 billion in the same 2003 period,
the data show.

The machine tools report is generally based on a survey of about 200
manufacturers, distributors and importers of machine tools that
represent 76 percent of the machine tool market.

Manufacturing industry optimism continued to pay dividends for
equipment builders as sales of US machine tools in September reached
the highest level in four years. With September sales totaling $389.20
million, machine tool builders saw an increase in sales of 74.6% over
$222.86 million reported for September 2003, according to the latest
figures of the US Machine Tool Consumption (USMTC) report released by
the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association (AMTDA, Rockville,
MD) and AMT--The Association For Manufacturing Technology (McLean,
VA).

The latest report showed sales rose 89.8% in September compared to
August sales of $205.01 million, and the 2004 year-to-date total of
$2146.95 million rose 42.2% versus 2003 sales of $1509.41 million
through September. The figures are based on the totals of actual data
reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

"Manufacturing in the US continues to show signs of a strong
comeback," according to AMTDA President Ralph J. Nappi. "Machine tool
orders in September hit their highest level in four years with all
regions of the country showing growth."

Regional sales showed strong overall gains paced by robust
improvements in the West Region, which totaled September sales of
$56.07 million, an increase of 72.1% over $32.59 million in August
sales and a 196.1% leap over the September 2003 total of $18.94
million. The West Region's year-to-date total of $279.39 million rose
89.6% over September 2003 sales of $147.33 million.

In the Midwest, September sales of $162.77 million rose 156.5% over
the prior month's $63.47 million in sales and increased 46.6% compared
with sales of $111.03 million during September 2003. With a
year-to-date total of $853.66 million, the Midwest region is 43.2%
ahead of $595.99 in sales through September 2003.


No gloom in this report:

http://www.sme.org/gmn/mag/2005/05jam002/05jam002.html

Regards


Daveb

Dave,
Your material seems to end in September.
The report I mentioned was for the last three months:
October, November & December ... ?
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:53:13 -0500, Cliff wrote:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:29:19 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff


Cliff,

In the first 11 months of 2004, machine tool demand stood at $2.670
billion, up 43 percent from $1.867 billion in the same 2003 period,
the data show.

The machine tools report is generally based on a survey of about 200
manufacturers, distributors and importers of machine tools that
represent 76 percent of the machine tool market.

Manufacturing industry optimism continued to pay dividends for
equipment builders as sales of US machine tools in September reached
the highest level in four years. With September sales totaling $389.20
million, machine tool builders saw an increase in sales of 74.6% over
$222.86 million reported for September 2003, according to the latest
figures of the US Machine Tool Consumption (USMTC) report released by
the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association (AMTDA, Rockville,
MD) and AMT--The Association For Manufacturing Technology (McLean,
VA).

The latest report showed sales rose 89.8% in September compared to
August sales of $205.01 million, and the 2004 year-to-date total of
$2146.95 million rose 42.2% versus 2003 sales of $1509.41 million
through September. The figures are based on the totals of actual data
reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

"Manufacturing in the US continues to show signs of a strong
comeback," according to AMTDA President Ralph J. Nappi. "Machine tool
orders in September hit their highest level in four years with all
regions of the country showing growth."

Regional sales showed strong overall gains paced by robust
improvements in the West Region, which totaled September sales of
$56.07 million, an increase of 72.1% over $32.59 million in August
sales and a 196.1% leap over the September 2003 total of $18.94
million. The West Region's year-to-date total of $279.39 million rose
89.6% over September 2003 sales of $147.33 million.

In the Midwest, September sales of $162.77 million rose 156.5% over
the prior month's $63.47 million in sales and increased 46.6% compared
with sales of $111.03 million during September 2003. With a
year-to-date total of $853.66 million, the Midwest region is 43.2%
ahead of $595.99 in sales through September 2003.


No gloom in this report:

http://www.sme.org/gmn/mag/2005/05jam002/05jam002.html

Regards


Daveb

Dave,
Your material seems to end in September.
The report I mentioned was for the last three months:
October, November & December ... ?
--
Cliff
Do you have the figures for the last quarter?

Regards
Daveb

DaveB wrote in message ...
On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

No gloom in this report:

http://www.sme.org/gmn/mag/2005/05jam002/05jam002.html

Regards


Daveb

There never is. g SME and AMTDA use the same data, but SME's reported
figures for the last four years or so have lagged those of the AMTDA.

The YTD and moving-average figures look good overall. But the last few
months of last year appear to have fallen off. Here's what AMTDA says:

"November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $245.04 million, according
to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association, and AMT - The
Association For Manufacturing Technology. This total, as reported by
companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 2.5% from October and
down 6.9% from the total of $263.17 million reported for November 2004. With
a year-to-date total of $2,766.59 million, 2005 was up 8.3% compared with
2004."

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/index.htm

I'd look at the moving averages more than the current-month, and those
numbers seem to reflect a boost in defense-related spending. You'd have to
look at Commerce Dept. figures to see what segments are up and down, to see
if there's broad-based strength in the parts market.

--
Ed Huntress

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:50:23 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

The optimistic forecast is for double-digit growth in 2005

Last year .... IIRC g.
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:58:14 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

Dave,
Your material seems to end in September.
The report I mentioned was for the last three months:
October, November & December ... ?

Do you have the figures for the last quarter?

Not right off. A search someplace might find them.
I just caught a bit of a news report a few days ago.
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:00:49 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

November U.S. machine tool consumption

Consumption would be shipped?
As compared to new orders?
I'm not certain which end of the report I got in passing
(new orders or shipped).
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:00:49 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

November

Then there's December ....
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:02:32 -0500, Cliff wrote:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:50:23 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

The optimistic forecast is for double-digit growth in 2005

Last year .... IIRC g.
--
Cliff
LMAO

Regards
Daveb

"Cliff" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:00:49 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

November U.S. machine tool consumption

Consumption would be shipped?
As compared to new orders?

I forget what they use. I think it's shipments. The AMT or SME may say on
their websites.

--
Ed Huntress

"Ed Huntress" wrote in news:NhCxf.292$r_4.141
@fe09.lga:

"Cliff" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:00:49 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

November U.S. machine tool consumption

Consumption would be shipped?
As compared to new orders?

I forget what they use. I think it's shipments. The AMT or SME may say on
their websites.


USMTC is orders booked. Sales were down slightly over the last quarter. But
they are still way better than earlier in the decade. According to the more
detailed USMTC data that we get turning was down a bit more than milling.
The Midwest dropped off after news of Delphi and GM's troubles. From what
I'm seeing so far January will be strong. It seems like there was a couple
of three months of hand wringing and now it's "WHEN CAN YOU GET IT
HERE!!!!"


--

Dan

Cliff wrote in news:gsrds1hj636ug3jegsm6fftb0pok8m74rs@
4ax.com:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:00:49 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

November

Then there's December ....

December sucked, but the data hasn't been released yet.

--

Dan

On 13 Jan 2006 05:42:24 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Sales were down slightly over the last quarter. But
they are still way better than earlier in the decade.

Sales in units or in inflated dollars?
--
Cliff

On 13 Jan 2006 05:43:27 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in news:gsrds1hj636ug3jegsm6fftb0pok8m74rs@
4ax.com:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 19:00:49 -0500, "Ed Huntress"
wrote:

November

Then there's December ....

December sucked, but the data hasn't been released yet.

The news report I heard in passing was for the last 3 months
including December IIRC.
You are probably much closer to the sources though g.
--
Cliff

Cliff wrote in news:thfes151mni4sjen5ivrcgh62lgo49n6h5@
4ax.com:

On 13 Jan 2006 05:42:24 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Sales were down slightly over the last quarter. But
they are still way better than earlier in the decade.

Sales in units or in inflated dollars?

Inflated dollars? You can't be serious. It's listed in U.S. Dollars and it
is given in units. If you are a subscriber you recieve a more detailed
breakdown by region, machine types, etc...

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

Perhaps you can subscribe and provide us with an in depth monthly analysis.
You know explain how the seemingly good news is really bad. That sort of
thing. At the very least, it would be refreshing if you were to use actual
real life data.

--

Dan

Cliff wrote in news:cjfes1hvr4rujp12cv0fa7luv6k9uu4slm@
4ax.com:

The news report I heard in passing was for the last 3 months
including December IIRC.
You are probably much closer to the sources though g.

The early numbers aren't reliable. Often they revise and re-release them as
they chase down those who forgot to report.

The Midwest is down. Other areas are doing better. From what I've seen most
shops are busy but are being careful due to fears of what is going to
happen in automotive.

Some places are working overtime rather than buying machines. I'm willing
to bet if they added up the overtime money, new machines would look cheap.

--

Dan

On 14 Jan 2006 02:51:45 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in news:thfes151mni4sjen5ivrcgh62lgo49n6h5@
4ax.com:

On 13 Jan 2006 05:42:24 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Sales were down slightly over the last quarter. But
they are still way better than earlier in the decade.

Sales in units or in inflated dollars?

Inflated dollars? You can't be serious. It's listed in U.S. Dollars and it
is given in units.

You said "sales" and that's usually in dollars.
Then you compared it with "earlier in the decade" ...
after inflation?

If you are a subscriber you recieve a more detailed
breakdown by region, machine types, etc...

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

Perhaps you can subscribe and provide us with an in depth monthly analysis.
You know explain how the seemingly good news is really bad. That sort of
thing. At the very least, it would be refreshing if you were to use actual
real life data.

Seemed like the "real world data" some posted were *projections*
for 2005 made in 2004 or for periods *before* the fourth quarter of
2005, which is what I commented on (from a news report) .....

G
--
Cliff

On 14 Jan 2006 03:09:24 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

From what I've seen most shops are busy

I'd guess that there are a lot fewer of them than a decade ago ..
and that they are no larger ...
Good point about their fears though ... India, China, etc. too.
--
Cliff

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:29:19 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff


Cliff,

In the first 11 months of 2004, machine tool demand stood at $2.670
billion, up 43 percent from $1.867 billion in the same 2003 period,
the data show.

The machine tools report is generally based on a survey of about 200
manufacturers, distributors and importers of machine tools that
represent 76 percent of the machine tool market.

Manufacturing industry optimism continued to pay dividends for
equipment builders as sales of US machine tools in September reached
the highest level in four years. With September sales totaling $389.20
million, machine tool builders saw an increase in sales of 74.6% over
$222.86 million reported for September 2003, according to the latest
figures of the US Machine Tool Consumption (USMTC) report released by
the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association (AMTDA, Rockville,
MD) and AMT--The Association For Manufacturing Technology (McLean,
VA).

The latest report showed sales rose 89.8% in September compared to
August sales of $205.01 million, and the 2004 year-to-date total of
$2146.95 million rose 42.2% versus 2003 sales of $1509.41 million
through September. The figures are based on the totals of actual data
reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

"Manufacturing in the US continues to show signs of a strong
comeback," according to AMTDA President Ralph J. Nappi. "Machine tool
orders in September hit their highest level in four years with all
regions of the country showing growth."

Regional sales showed strong overall gains paced by robust
improvements in the West Region, which totaled September sales of
$56.07 million, an increase of 72.1% over $32.59 million in August
sales and a 196.1% leap over the September 2003 total of $18.94
million. The West Region's year-to-date total of $279.39 million rose
89.6% over September 2003 sales of $147.33 million.

In the Midwest, September sales of $162.77 million rose 156.5% over
the prior month's $63.47 million in sales and increased 46.6% compared
with sales of $111.03 million during September 2003. With a
year-to-date total of $853.66 million, the Midwest region is 43.2%
ahead of $595.99 in sales through September 2003.


No gloom in this report:

http://www.sme.org/gmn/mag/2005/05jam002/05jam002.html

Regards


Daveb


Its all Bush's Fault!!!!!


Gunner

The aim of untold millions is to be free to do exactly as they choose
and for someone else to pay when things go wrong.

In the past few decades, a peculiar and distinctive psychology
has emerged in England. Gone are the civility, sturdy independence,
and admirable stoicism that carried the English through the war years
.. It has been replaced by a constant whine of excuses, complaints,
and special pleading. The collapse of the British character has been
as swift and complete as the collapse of British power.

Theodore Dalrymple,

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:50:23 GMT, (DaveB) wrote:

On Thu, 12 Jan 2006 18:00:27 -0500, Cliff wrote:

IIRC US machine tool orders are way down for the third month in a
row .... is it a seasonal effect? Or just more foreshadowings of doom?
--
Cliff


The U.S. machine tool market finished the year 2004 with orders more
than 40 percent above 2003 levels and shipments up 25 percent.
Consumption, whether measured by orders or shipments, had fallen more
than 60 percent from its peaks in 1998. Strong growth over the past
two years still leaves the U.S. manufacturing technology market at
less than 60 percent of its peak in 1998.

The short-term prospects are promising. The consensus outlook among
analysts who follow the U.S. manufacturing technology market on a
regular basis indicates a continued rise in orders this year. The
optimistic forecast is for double-digit growth in 2005 while forecasts
for the following years diverge. Many of the analysts feel that the
best opportunities are in the present, and that some sectors in the
manufacturing technology markets will begin to slow as early as 2006.

The signs of a recovery in capital spending have been clear for
several years. The traditional signals for an imminent increase in
capital spending are capacity utilization and the Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI), an independent survey of manufacturers’ buying plans.
Both of these began moving upwards in the second quarter of 2003. The
capacity utilization index for durable manufacturing turned upward in
April 2003, and the PMI index rose to over 50 (a signal of increased
spending & growth in manufacturing) in May 2003.

Key customer markets -- such as autos, off-road and highway
construction equipment, and appliances -- have seen growth in U.S.
consumer demand slow down in recent months. The outlook for expansion
of capacity to supply a growing U.S. demand for durable goods is
weakening. The key to a continuation of the capital-spending boom will
depend upon the fortunes of the export markets for U.S.-built capital
goods and non-traditional, but expanding, domestic markets such as the
medical equipment industry.

The weakened dollar and the elimination of punitive tariffs on U.S.
goods shipped to the European Union (EU) have made U.S. products much
more attractive in Western European markets. Exports of both
manufactured products and manufacturing technology equipment
illustrate the temporary competitive advantages provided by exchange
rates shifts. Expectations are that the dollar will steady against the
European currencies this year, but fall further against Asian
currencies.

The resulting implicit price cut in U.S. durable goods could spark a
renewed need for capital equipment by U.S. manufacturers supplying
Asian markets. The weakened dollar relative to Asian currencies is
likely to also lead to increased exports of U.S. manufacturing
technology, as these products will also be less expensive relative to
comparable European and Japanese products in Asian markets.

Still a leader

America continues to excel in important categories, including:
metrology; composite tape-laying machines; transfer lines and systems;
small, medium and large-size CNC machining centers; spar and skin
mills for aircraft components; abrasive flow machining for difficult
finishing problems; CNC turning centers; assembly systems; grinding
machines; punch presses for materials over 60 mm thick; and spiral
bevel and parallel axis gear-making machinery. In addition, the U.S.
holds a leadership position in water jet cutting and laser processing
machines, as well as in the technology for developing small assembly
robots.

The United States leads in the development and production of machines
to produce parts using the process of stereolithography. Work
continues to enable a broader selection of materials. Other new
technologies build metal components by selectively binding metal
powder layer by layer.

The United States also leads in the introduction of open architecture
controls which provide users with a wider choice of communication
interfaces and the ability to develop their own proprietary
applications.

These trends will be seen at the next International Manufacturing
Technology Show (IMTS), September 6-13, 2006, at Chicago’s McCormick
Place. The newest manufacturing technology equipment from around the
world will be seen by close to 100,000 visitors.

The U.S. industry’s trade group is AMT-The Association For
Manufacturing Technology (founded in 1902 as the National Machine Tool
Builders' Association). The association supports and promotes the U.S.
manufacturing technology industry and provides U.S. builders of
manufacturing systems with the latest information on technical
developments, training methods, trade and marketing opportunities, and
economic issues. It also gathers and disseminates information about
world markets, promotes its members' products in those markets, and
acts as a representative on manufacturing technology matters to
governments and trade organizations throughout the world.

In 1993, AMT opened an office in Beijing — the first trade association
to establish a presence in the vast China market. The association also
has offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou, and last year opened a
USA/Technology and Service Center in Shanghai. It also has an office
and Technical Center in Monterrey, Mexico. Visit www.AMTonline.org for
updated information


Regards
Daveb

Its all Bush's Fault!!

Gunner

The aim of untold millions is to be free to do exactly as they choose
and for someone else to pay when things go wrong.

In the past few decades, a peculiar and distinctive psychology
has emerged in England. Gone are the civility, sturdy independence,
and admirable stoicism that carried the English through the war years
.. It has been replaced by a constant whine of excuses, complaints,
and special pleading. The collapse of the British character has been
as swift and complete as the collapse of British power.

Theodore Dalrymple,

Cliff wrote in
:

On 14 Jan 2006 02:51:45 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in
news:thfes151mni4sjen5ivrcgh62lgo49n6h5@ 4ax.com:

On 13 Jan 2006 05:42:24 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Sales were down slightly over the last quarter. But
they are still way better than earlier in the decade.

Sales in units or in inflated dollars?

Inflated dollars? You can't be serious. It's listed in U.S. Dollars
and it is given in units.

You said "sales" and that's usually in dollars.
Then you compared it with "earlier in the decade" ...
after inflation?

You don't understand inflation do you?


If you are a subscriber you recieve a more detailed
breakdown by region, machine types, etc...

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

Perhaps you can subscribe and provide us with an in depth monthly
analysis. You know explain how the seemingly good news is really bad.
That sort of thing. At the very least, it would be refreshing if you
were to use actual real life data.

Seemed like the "real world data" some posted were *projections*
for 2005 made in 2004 or for periods *before* the fourth quarter of
2005, which is what I commented on (from a news report) .....

G

Wrong. 2005 sales are up 8.3% over 2004's total through November. So it's
not going to be possible for 2005 sales to be less than 2004 as they are
already higher.


[FOR RELEASE: January 9, 2006

2005 Machine Tool Consumption tops 2004 through November

November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $245.04 million, according
to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association, and AMT -
The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This total, as reported by
companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 2.5% from October
and down 6.9% from the total of $263.17 million reported for November 2004.
With a year-to-date total of $2,766.59 million, 2005 was up 8.3% compared
with 2004.]

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

If you want a good indicator of what 2006 sales are likely to be keep an
eye on capacity utilization for durable goods. When that figure goes above
80% machine tool sales take off into record breaking levels. Right now
utilization stands at 78.5%. Which follows a four plus year trend of
increases.

HTH

--

Dan

On 15 Jan 2006 19:59:08 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in
:

On 14 Jan 2006 02:51:45 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in
news:thfes151mni4sjen5ivrcgh62lgo49n6h5@ 4ax.com:

On 13 Jan 2006 05:42:24 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Sales were down slightly over the last quarter. But
they are still way better than earlier in the decade.

Sales in units or in inflated dollars?

Inflated dollars? You can't be serious. It's listed in U.S. Dollars
and it is given in units.

You said "sales" and that's usually in dollars.
Then you compared it with "earlier in the decade" ...
after inflation?

You don't understand inflation do you?

Prices went up for the same goods?

If you are a subscriber you recieve a more detailed
breakdown by region, machine types, etc...

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

Perhaps you can subscribe and provide us with an in depth monthly
analysis. You know explain how the seemingly good news is really bad.
That sort of thing. At the very least, it would be refreshing if you
were to use actual real life data.

Seemed like the "real world data" some posted were *projections*
for 2005 made in 2004 or for periods *before* the fourth quarter of
2005, which is what I commented on (from a news report) .....

G

Wrong. 2005 sales are up 8.3% over 2004's total through November.

But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....

So it's
not going to be possible for 2005 sales to be less than 2004 as they are
already higher.

But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....

[FOR RELEASE: January 9, 2006

2005 Machine Tool Consumption tops 2004 through November

November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $245.04 million, according
to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association, and AMT -
The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This total, as reported by
companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 2.5% from October

IOW "down".

and down 6.9%

IOW "down".

from the total of $263.17 million reported for November 2004.
With a year-to-date total of $2,766.59 million, 2005 was up 8.3% compared
with 2004.]

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

If you want a good indicator of what 2006 sales are likely to be keep an
eye on capacity utilization for durable goods.

You don't think that sales are a good indicator of sales?

When that figure goes above
80% machine tool sales take off into record breaking levels. Right now
utilization stands at 78.5%. Which follows a four plus year trend of
increases.

So why did sales drop?
--
Cliff

Cliff wrote in
news
Seemed like the "real world data" some posted were *projections*
for 2005 made in 2004 or for periods *before* the fourth quarter of
2005, which is what I commented on (from a news report) .....

G

Wrong. 2005 sales are up 8.3% over 2004's total through November.

But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....

Up from the previous year which was the claim.

I'll guarantee that in 2006 October sales will be down from September. Care
to wager? Just name your price.


So it's
not going to be possible for 2005 sales to be less than 2004 as they
are already higher.

But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....

December sales could be zero and total sales will still be higher for 2005
than for 2004.


[FOR RELEASE: January 9, 2006

2005 Machine Tool Consumption tops 2004 through November

November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $245.04 million,
according to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors'
Association, and AMT - The Association For Manufacturing Technology.
This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC
program, was down 2.5% from October

IOW "down".

and down 6.9%

IOW "down".

I read that part. I actually understood it too. Did you happen to see the
part about 2005 sales through November topping total sales for 2004? Do you
need a little help with that?


from the total of $263.17 million reported for November 2004.
With a year-to-date total of $2,766.59 million, 2005 was up 8.3%
compared with 2004.]

http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/

If you want a good indicator of what 2006 sales are likely to be keep
an eye on capacity utilization for durable goods.

You don't think that sales are a good indicator of sales?

Current sales have never been a good indicator of future sales. Just ask
the companies that were in the midst of big expansions in 1999 and 2000.


When that figure goes above
80% machine tool sales take off into record breaking levels. Right now
utilization stands at 78.5%. Which follows a four plus year trend of
increases.

So why did sales drop?


They didn't. Look at sales when capacity was at say 68% and look at sales
at 78.5%, then tell me which is bigger.

Better yet compare the historical data and tell me when there was no demand
for machine tools when capacity was at 80% plus.

--

Dan

On 16 Jan 2006 04:07:01 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Up from the previous year which was the claim.

Not mine. I mentioned the reported declines in Oct, Nov & Dec 2005.

I'll guarantee that in 2006 October sales will be down from September. Care
to wager? Just name your price.

You think it's a seasonal effect (IIRC I mentioned that too) or the
start of a trend?

So it's
not going to be possible for 2005 sales to be less than 2004 as they
are already higher.

But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....

December sales could be zero and total sales will still be higher for 2005
than for 2004.

So? What does 2004 have to do with those three months in 2005?

Current sales have never been a good indicator of future sales.

That's interesting.

Just ask the companies that were in the midst of big expansions in 1999 and 2000.

Umm ..... perhaps month to month trends ....

When that figure goes above
80% machine tool sales take off into record breaking levels. Right now
utilization stands at 78.5%. Which follows a four plus year trend of
increases.

So why did sales drop?


They didn't. Look at sales when capacity was at say 68% and look at sales
at 78.5%, then tell me which is bigger.

Better yet compare the historical data and tell me when there was no demand
for machine tools when capacity was at 80% plus.

I'd guess that you don't get to count all those closed plants or the
equipment sold as scrap Iron to China as US capacity any more.
--
Cliff

Cliff wrote in
:

On 16 Jan 2006 04:07:01 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Up from the previous year which was the claim.

Not mine. I mentioned the reported declines in Oct, Nov & Dec 2005.

OK.


I'll guarantee that in 2006 October sales will be down from September.
Care to wager? Just name your price.

You think it's a seasonal effect (IIRC I mentioned that too) or the
start of a trend?

I don't know. I don't think it's seasonal. There has never been any
predictable seasonality in machine tool sales. Although January is usualy
a little slow.

I think that the recent downward trend is due to a lack of confidence.
There were concerns over energy costs and rising interest rates. There is
also the issue of companies having to absorb the new machines that they
have bought. Many are trying to do this without adding employees. Which
brings up the issue of a shortage of skilled workers available to do the
work. I'm already seeing demand building in January. Most of the projects
pouring in now won't result in orders until later on. I would look for
orders to pick up in February and continue to be strong through July.

BTW, the reason sales will be up in September is because of IMTS. The
show always creates a spike in orders. But if you look at the numbers the
show is just sucking them out of August and October for the most part.


snip


Better yet compare the historical data and tell me when there was no
demand for machine tools when capacity was at 80% plus.

I'd guess that you don't get to count all those closed plants or the
equipment sold as scrap Iron to China as US capacity any more.

No they don't count.

We've lost far more plants to automation and productivity improvements
than to China. Europe is a much more formidable manufacturing competitor
than China is at the moment.

--

Dan

On 17 Jan 2006 05:11:23 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

BTW, the reason sales will be up in September is because of IMTS.

But they were down Oct, Nov & Dec ....

The
show always creates a spike in orders. But if you look at the numbers the
show is just sucking them out of August and October for the most part.

But they should have shown up in Oct, Nov, Dec ..... ?
--
Cliff

On 17 Jan 2006 05:11:23 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

We've lost far more plants to automation and productivity improvements
than to China.

I keep hearing about "productivity improvements" but then they
say the workers are paid far to much ..... and cut their benefits
or loot their retiremnt plans.
IF there were "productivity improvements" there should be MORE
$$ for the remaining employees, right?
Explain that one ....
--
Cliff

On 17 Jan 2006 17:48:22 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in news:m66ps1dcughh8kkg9ufcmi0tbavqtkovqs@
4ax.com:

On 17 Jan 2006 05:11:23 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

We've lost far more plants to automation and productivity improvements
than to China.

I keep hearing about "productivity improvements" but then they
say the workers are paid far to much ..... and cut their benefits
or loot their retiremnt plans.
IF there were "productivity improvements" there should be MORE
$$ for the remaining employees, right?

No. The savings either go into lower prices

Which explains the rapidly rising retail prices.

or offset higher costs of
pensions, health insurance, and raw materials.

But all except the pensions would be "more productive" too,
right?
And the pensions would be more productive due to the rapidly
rising stock market ... Oops, that's a world market & it probably
actually fell (in real terms) due to the decline in the value of the
dollar ..

I get it now. The dollar is neocon inflated by those
wars, spending hikes, corporate welfare to special interests
& tax cuts, right?

Explain that one ....

Lower prices. Lower costs.

But retail prices are up .....

What makes you think that every company and all of their competitors would
sell at the same price no matter their true cost? There is no greater
competitive advantage than having the lowest cost. Let's say you are
shopping for a lathe and you find two brands that will suit your needs. The
lathes are identical in every way as are the companies selling them. Would
you buy the one that costs 25% more?

Is it from Europe, Japan, .... ?

The cost of pensions and health insurance has skyrocketed.

WHY?

Double digit
increases for something like a decade. Yet inflation has remained low for
at least that long.

I assume your wife does all the shopping.

Those costs are being offset by productivity increases.

WHERE?
--
Cliff

On 18 Jan 2006 02:29:05 -0800, "kurgan" wrote:


Cliff wrote:

It's a puzzle .... where did the increased productivity GO?




Think about all the stuff that's taken for granted now that even a
billionaire couldn't get his hands on 25 years ago.

Mostly tech.

Mostly *imported*.

Cell phones, computers - 1980 supercomputer processing in a laptop, GPS
systems in cars, cars that last longer than 100,000 miles, plasma TVs,
etc.

Some of the car sare partly made in the US.
But, due to the increases in productivity & cuts in real
wages & bennies, GM & Ford are almost bankrupt, right?

All stuff that the middle class takes for granted. Junior high school
kids w/ cellphones.

That is indeed productive.

Then there's all the food. Enough food to make everyone 300 lbs.

Priced it lately? Even Gunner's kibble is probaby up ...

Etc.

You were saying?

Short term, it's hard to see productivity gains.

Like the last few years?

Long term, it's very evident.

Just import it, right?

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

HTH
--
Cliff

Cliff wrote:

Cell phones, computers - 1980 supercomputer processing in a laptop, GPS
systems in cars, cars that last longer than 100,000 miles, plasma TVs,
etc.

Some of the car sare partly made in the US.
But, due to the increases in productivity & cuts in real
wages & bennies, GM & Ford are almost bankrupt, right?




GM and Ford will eventually go belly up because their cars simply
aren't competitive.

And that's what it's about in the global marketplace. Competition.

Someone on this group recently wrote an excellent post overviewing the
rise and fall and rise again of American machine tool companies. The
same type of thing is happening in all of our industries.


Do you go to the doctor or is your health care provided in-house? You
probably go to the doctor because they are a more efficient provider of
health care.

It's the same thing internationally. China sells us labor intensive
goods. Japan sells us cars. Italy sells us high fashion and fast cars.
We sell all of them movies, information, and military
weapons/aerospace. No sense for anyone doing it in-house when someone
else does it better or cheaper or both.


thanks,

K. Gringioni.

On 19 Jan 2006 01:10:42 -0800, "kurgan" wrote:


Cliff wrote:

Cell phones, computers - 1980 supercomputer processing in a laptop, GPS
systems in cars, cars that last longer than 100,000 miles, plasma TVs,
etc.

Some of the car sare partly made in the US.
But, due to the increases in productivity & cuts in real
wages & bennies, GM & Ford are almost bankrupt, right?




GM and Ford will eventually go belly up because their cars simply
aren't competitive.

But there's been so much productivity gain ...
WHAT'S WRONG WITH THEIR PRODUCTS?

And that's what it's about in the global marketplace. Competition.

Someone on this group recently wrote an excellent post overviewing the
rise and fall and rise again of American machine tool companies. The
same type of thing is happening in all of our industries.

Falling, right?

Do you go to the doctor or is your health care provided in-house?

I used to G. Three of my great-uncles were doctors ...

You
probably go to the doctor because they are a more efficient provider of
health care.

http://www.who.int/inf-pr-2000/en/pr2000-life.html
DALE life expectancy in years :

Japan, 74.5
Australia, 73.2
France, 73.1
Sweden, 73.0
Spain, 72.8
Italy, 72.7
Greece, 72.5
Switzerland, 72.5
Monaco, 72.4
Andorra, 72.3.

"The United States rated 24th under this system, or an average of 70.0 years
of healthy life for babies born in 1999."

Cuba, 68.4 years (sanctions on things like medicines probably take a toll
but they have a lower infant mortality than the US IIRC even after that))

It's the same thing internationally. China sells us labor intensive
goods. Japan sells us cars. Italy sells us high fashion and fast cars.

IIRC The standard of living in Japan & Italy compare with that in the US.
And, per the above, they live better & longer ....

We sell all of them movies, information, and military
weapons/aerospace. No sense for anyone doing it in-house when someone
else does it better or cheaper or both.

"Kill for peace" again?

Consider how much of the GDP in the US is spent/wasted on military
things: It's about 5% of the US GDP. More (in US dollars) thet the rest
of the world combined.
That 5% is compounded NEGATIVE on the GDP.
95%
90.5%
85.7%
.....

Compared to what otherwise might have been:
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.16 .....

That's not exact but you get the idea .... and I don't
think it covers military sales & freebies to other nations
and may not cover the various secret expenses ...
--
Cliff

Cliff wrote in
:

http://www.who.int/inf-pr-2000/en/pr2000-life.html
DALE life expectancy in years :

Japan, 74.5
Australia, 73.2
France, 73.1
Sweden, 73.0
Spain, 72.8
Italy, 72.7
Greece, 72.5
Switzerland, 72.5
Monaco, 72.4
Andorra, 72.3.

"The United States rated 24th under this system, or an average of
70.0 years
of healthy life for babies born in 1999."

Which means exactly nothing as far as a gage of our healthcare system. In
fact it's worse than nothing.


--

Dan

On 21 Jan 2006 01:53:51 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in
:

http://www.who.int/inf-pr-2000/en/pr2000-life.html
DALE life expectancy in years :

Japan, 74.5
Australia, 73.2
France, 73.1
Sweden, 73.0
Spain, 72.8
Italy, 72.7
Greece, 72.5
Switzerland, 72.5
Monaco, 72.4
Andorra, 72.3.

"The United States rated 24th under this system, or an average of
70.0 years
of healthy life for babies born in 1999."

Which means exactly nothing as far as a gage of our healthcare system. In
fact it's worse than nothing.

Consider how much more you are paying for those results ....
Cost/benefit ...
--
Cliff

On 21 Jan 2006 07:43:08 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in
:

On 21 Jan 2006 01:53:51 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Cliff wrote in
:

http://www.who.int/inf-pr-2000/en/pr2000-life.html
DALE life expectancy in years :

Japan, 74.5
Australia, 73.2
France, 73.1
Sweden, 73.0
Spain, 72.8
Italy, 72.7
Greece, 72.5
Switzerland, 72.5
Monaco, 72.4
Andorra, 72.3.

"The United States rated 24th under this system, or an average of
70.0 years
of healthy life for babies born in 1999."

Which means exactly nothing as far as a gage of our healthcare system.
In fact it's worse than nothing.

Consider how much more you are paying for those results ....
Cost/benefit ...

That's too funny. As you don't seem to understand the root cause of those
results.

What we need are better doctors right? Or is it "free" healthcare for all
that's the cure? What makes you think a drug addicted pregnant woman is
suddenly going to put down the crack pipe and get healthy just because no
one will ask for proof of insurance? Yeah, I'm sure that will prevent her
from giving birth to a premature sick baby that will die inside of a
month. And I'm quite certain that sixteen year old kids will stop killing
themselves in cars once they know that they will be able to see a doctor
from cradle to grave with no out of pocket expense. And people will stop
murdering each other over the right to sell dope at a particular inner
city street corner once we have universal healthcare and better doctors.
Yeah I can see how that will all work out.

You're a hoot.

Try using the CDC death stats to adjust your data for "american stupidity".
See what you get G.
--
Cliff

On Sat, 21 Jan 2006 09:31:25 GMT, zadoc wrote:

Even if
they can afford to see a general practitioner, and they may not be
able to afford it, how long to contact the office of a GP and make an
appointment?

Often weeks in advance to get an appointment.
Uninsured? Cash in advance.
Then they are most likely just to tell them to go to a hospital
emergency room and try to get treatment.
Might lose any & all assets there too if they are not insured.
Once they find out it's going to cost a lot for treatment ...
many die I gather. No coverage.
"Experimental" things are not usually coverd either (if insured), even
if known to be effective abroad or from recent research.

Then there are medicines .... not much covered even for the
insured these days. Can be hundreds of dollars per day in pretty pills ...
Pill A costs X, Pill B costs Y, everyone takes both .. no discount ...
--
Cliff

On Sat, 21 Jan 2006 09:31:25 GMT, zadoc wrote:

Ever hear of Masada? A large number of Jews took refuge on a mountain
fortress and held out against the Roman legions. When it became
obvious that the Romans were going to win, they all committed suicide.

Except for a few hiding in a cistern IIRC. They escaped.
--
Cliff

On Sat, 21 Jan 2006 12:27:16 GMT, zadoc wrote:

On Sat, 21 Jan 2006 05:01:59 -0500, Cliff wrote:

On Sat, 21 Jan 2006 09:31:25 GMT, zadoc wrote:

Ever hear of Masada? A large number of Jews took refuge on a mountain
fortress and held out against the Roman legions. When it became
obvious that the Romans were going to win, they all committed suicide.

Except for a few hiding in a cistern IIRC. They escaped.

Actually hadn't heard that. Interesting if true. Do you have a
reference?

Just for starters:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masada
"This account of the siege of Masada was apparently related to Josephus by two
women who survived the suicide by hiding inside a cistern along with five
children."
--
Cliff