Cliff wrote in
news
Seemed like the "real world data" some posted were *projections*
for 2005 made in 2004 or for periods *before* the fourth quarter of
2005, which is what I commented on (from a news report) .....
G
Wrong. 2005 sales are up 8.3% over 2004's total through November.
But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....
Up from the previous year which was the claim.
I'll guarantee that in 2006 October sales will be down from September. Care
to wager? Just name your price.
So it's
not going to be possible for 2005 sales to be less than 2004 as they
are already higher.
But down for October, November & December compared to prior
months ....
December sales could be zero and total sales will still be higher for 2005
than for 2004.
[FOR RELEASE: January 9, 2006
2005 Machine Tool Consumption tops 2004 through November
November U.S. machine tool consumption totaled $245.04 million,
according to AMTDA, the American Machine Tool Distributors'
Association, and AMT - The Association For Manufacturing Technology.
This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC
program, was down 2.5% from October
IOW "down".
and down 6.9%
IOW "down".
I read that part. I actually understood it too. Did you happen to see the
part about 2005 sales through November topping total sales for 2004? Do you
need a little help with that?
from the total of $263.17 million reported for November 2004.
With a year-to-date total of $2,766.59 million, 2005 was up 8.3%
compared with 2004.]
http://www.amtda.org/usmtc/
If you want a good indicator of what 2006 sales are likely to be keep
an eye on capacity utilization for durable goods.
You don't think that sales are a good indicator of sales?
Current sales have never been a good indicator of future sales. Just ask
the companies that were in the midst of big expansions in 1999 and 2000.
When that figure goes above
80% machine tool sales take off into record breaking levels. Right now
utilization stands at 78.5%. Which follows a four plus year trend of
increases.
So why did sales drop?
They didn't. Look at sales when capacity was at say 68% and look at sales
at 78.5%, then tell me which is bigger.
Better yet compare the historical data and tell me when there was no demand
for machine tools when capacity was at 80% plus.
--
Dan