Cliff wrote in
:

On 16 Jan 2006 04:07:01 GMT, D Murphy wrote:

Up from the previous year which was the claim.

Not mine. I mentioned the reported declines in Oct, Nov & Dec 2005.

OK.


I'll guarantee that in 2006 October sales will be down from September.
Care to wager? Just name your price.

You think it's a seasonal effect (IIRC I mentioned that too) or the
start of a trend?

I don't know. I don't think it's seasonal. There has never been any
predictable seasonality in machine tool sales. Although January is usualy
a little slow.

I think that the recent downward trend is due to a lack of confidence.
There were concerns over energy costs and rising interest rates. There is
also the issue of companies having to absorb the new machines that they
have bought. Many are trying to do this without adding employees. Which
brings up the issue of a shortage of skilled workers available to do the
work. I'm already seeing demand building in January. Most of the projects
pouring in now won't result in orders until later on. I would look for
orders to pick up in February and continue to be strong through July.

BTW, the reason sales will be up in September is because of IMTS. The
show always creates a spike in orders. But if you look at the numbers the
show is just sucking them out of August and October for the most part.


snip


Better yet compare the historical data and tell me when there was no
demand for machine tools when capacity was at 80% plus.

I'd guess that you don't get to count all those closed plants or the
equipment sold as scrap Iron to China as US capacity any more.

No they don't count.

We've lost far more plants to automation and productivity improvements
than to China. Europe is a much more formidable manufacturing competitor
than China is at the moment.

--

Dan