On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 10:21:25 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 10:12, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:50:30 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 09:03, Nightjar wrote:
On 15-Jun-16 8:44 AM, dennis@home wrote:
Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave

Yes.

No.

In fact sterling has been rising steadily in step with the swing
towards brexit...

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/im...buryjune-7.PNG

But that same site also says:
"British Pound to Remain Under Notable Pressure Over Coming 10 Days

Sterling is starting to really feel the heat as markets look to exit
the GBP market ahead of the June 23rd vote.

However, there is a must-read piece on Pound Sterling Live today that
reports a view that the GBP/EUR will bounce sharply to 1.40 in the days
following Brexit.

Why? Because the euro exchange rate complex has more to lose from
Brexit than the pound does argues NABs Nick Parsons in an interview
with spread betting firm IG.

Looking ahead to the next few days, uncertainty is the buzzword.

€œSterling is sliding away as we move ever closer to the EU referendum
on the 23rd. Who knows which way the vote will go but sterling is being
undermined by the uncertainty and this isnt likely to change in the
next ten days,€� says Charles Purdy at Smart Currency Business.


and "On the potential future direction of the sterling-dollar exchange
rate Barclays write:

The recent sell-off on increased trading volumes endorses our bearish
view.

We expect resistance in the 1.4670 area to cap a move towards 1.4330
and then lower towards the 1.4005 area."



So its just another remainer lie, really.

No. See also

http://uk.reuters.com/business/currencies



Actually everything you say can be condensed into one statement:

"No one really knows WTF will happen either way" and "lots of lovely
volatility in the markets right now for speculators to make fortunes
with"

Oh dear - you don't like the direct quotes which belie your stance so you
again misquote. Bless!

On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:22:27 +0100, Capitol wrote:

Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:39:05 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:


On 15/06/16 08:44, dennis@home wrote:

Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so why
do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

Actually almost nothing is happening to the markets or the pound as
the markets have rightly assessed that the day after the referendum,
almost nothing will have changed, nor will it in the short term
future.


"£20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index

More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the
pound fell as the markets took fright over the prospect of Leave vote.

Buoyant Leave campaigners will set out detailed plans today for how a
Brexit would play out."

Taken from inews site.

How much was wiped off the US and German stock exchanges? The value
of your investments can go down as well as up.

Didn't look - I was refuting, with quotes, the lie that 'almost nothing
is happening to the markets or the pound'

On 15/06/16 13:45, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:12:13 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 10:42, GB wrote:
What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick,
for a start. So, interest rates will go up

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation down.

and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry have
a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.

We do. Lots.

E.G.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/m...ter-modi-visit

"India invests more in the UK than the rest of the European Union
combined [1]. In 2014-15 India emerged as Britains third biggest job
creator, creating 7,730 new jobs, with investments from India increasing
by 65% making it the third largest source of foreign direct investment
(FDI) [2]."

So basically all we need to so is to partner up with India and the EU
can go **** itself.



--
Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's
too dark to read.

Groucho Marx

On 15/06/16 13:52, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 10:18:49 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 09:52, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:39:05 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 08:44, dennis@home wrote:
Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so why
do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

Actually almost nothing is happening to the markets or the pound as
the markets have rightly assessed that the day after the referendum,
almost nothing will have changed, nor will it in the short term
future.


"£20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index

More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the
pound fell as the markets took fright over the prospect of Leave vote.

"More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the
pound fell {snipped misquote aka lie}

There, fixed it for you.

Oh dear, you don't like a direct quote so you 'fix it'. Bless!


If the direct quote is of a lie, no, I don't. That's opinion, not fact.

Fact is the pound fell. Opinion as to why, is another level entirely.

People are in jail for fixing FX rates. Its a fact.



Appeals to authority are for stupid people who cant think for themselves
or count beyond ten without taking off their socks..


--
Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's
too dark to read.

Groucho Marx

On 15/06/16 13:55, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:22:27 +0100, Capitol wrote:

Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:39:05 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:


On 15/06/16 08:44, dennis@home wrote:

Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so why
do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

Actually almost nothing is happening to the markets or the pound as
the markets have rightly assessed that the day after the referendum,
almost nothing will have changed, nor will it in the short term
future.


"£20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index

More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the
pound fell as the markets took fright over the prospect of Leave vote.

Buoyant Leave campaigners will set out detailed plans today for how a
Brexit would play out."

Taken from inews site.

How much was wiped off the US and German stock exchanges? The value
of your investments can go down as well as up.

Didn't look - I was refuting, with quotes, the lie that 'almost nothing
is happening to the markets or the pound'

Thats not a lie, thats a fact.

Not much is actually happening, certainly not compared with what
happened when the stock market fell from over 7000 to under 4000 as a
result of US and other countries' stupid attitudes to debt.


--
Karl Marx said religion is the opium of the people.
But Marxism is the crack cocaine.

On Wednesday, 15 June 2016 13:45:45 UTC+1, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:12:13 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 10:42, GB wrote:
What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick,
for a start. So, interest rates will go up

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation down.

and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry have
a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.

I'd like to know why trade agreements take so long and what's involved.

I know what govenerment organisation is about it took over two years for me to get a key cut until I gave up and brought a new padlock.
4+ years to get a door stop (still ongoing).
It's been 2 months or since I asked for the PAT test results, nothing yet.

It doesn;t suprise me it'll take 2-10 years, when it takes 4 years to decide what chocolate is.

Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
Why would you put your heart and soul into trying to make something work

Because it is what you are employed for. Generals know that politicians
make stupid decisions but still carry out their orders, look at Iraq and
Libya.
you know to be the wrong and very stupid decision? What's more, one
initiated by politicians who only have their *own* interests at heart, not
those of the majority in the country.

It is basic human nature to do nothing to assist the idiots who caused it.


And expect the same from the EU. From those who think they'll fall over
themselves to give the UK a good deal.

Scare tactics? Possibly. Bit like Turkey joining the EU shortly.

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
.. .

It went to $1.05 at its worst. I remember as I was in the U Sat the
time and the Yanks were commenting on it

So much for memory then.

I would have sworn in a Court of Law under oath that I bought my
yellow Landxscape GCS350N chainsaw in my local B&Q.
I can even remember bringing it home. However when I looked it
up on the Internet to source a new chain the only such saws were
sold by Argos. Not believing what I saw I searched out the manual.
With Argos clearly printed on the back.

The tables on this site show the lowest sterling has ever gone
against the US dollar in the period 1960 - 1990 was £1.30
in 1985. As I won't use this as an opportunity to score a cheap
political point I won't comment any further.

https://www.measuringworth.com/datas...und/result.php

or in graph form

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph.htm


michael adams

....

On 6/15/2016 9:53 AM, michael adams wrote:
"Tim Streater" wrote
It went to $1.05 at its worst. I remember as I was in the U Sat the
time and the Yanks were commenting on it
snip
The tables on this site show the lowest sterling has ever gone
against the US dollar in the period 1960 - 1990 was £1.30
in 1985. As I won't use this as an opportunity to score a cheap
political point I won't comment any further.

https://www.measuringworth.com/datas...und/result.php

or in graph form

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph.htm

Different charts seem to provide different numbers - this one shows a
rate of $1.0438 to the pound, in the 1980s.

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-graph-zoom.php?C1=GBP&C2=USD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=195 3&DD2=25&MM2=02&YYYY2=2013&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0

"S Viemeister" wrote in message
...
On 6/15/2016 9:53 AM, michael adams wrote:
"Tim Streater" wrote
It went to $1.05 at its worst. I remember as I was in the U Sat the
time and the Yanks were commenting on it
snip
The tables on this site show the lowest sterling has ever gone
against the US dollar in the period 1960 - 1990 was £1.30
in 1985. As I won't use this as an opportunity to score a cheap
political point I won't comment any further.

https://www.measuringworth.com/datas...und/result.php

or in graph form

http://www.miketodd.net/encyc/dollhist-graph.htm

Different charts seem to provide different numbers - this one shows a rate of $1.0438
to the pound, in the 1980s.

Indeed. Having looked The Bank of England site gives a similar figure

Howver the original point being made was that this happened
in the 1970's, the implication being that it was under a Labour
Government.

quote

"Capitol" wrote in message
...


I can recall $1.2 to the pound in the 1970s. As an importer it was an interesting
experience.

/quote

when it fact it happened in 1985 - during the sixth year of the
Magnificent Reign of Our Late Supreme Leader - the Fount of all
Earthly Wisdom and She Who Must Be Obeyed.

I was hoping I wouldn't have to mention any of this as I find the
whole thing a bit upsetting myself, as can be imagined. But thank
you for your post, nevertheless.


michael adams

....







http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-graph-zoom.php?C1=GBP&C2=USD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=195 3&DD2=25&MM2=02&YYYY2=2013&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0

In article ,
Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:12:13 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 10:42, GB wrote:
What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick,
for a start. So, interest rates will go up

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation
down.

and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry
have a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.

Or much in the way of goods to export. Close the factories who are here
because we have tarrif free access to the EU - like Jaguar and Nissan -
and we'll have even less to export.
But everything we import - including so much of our food - will go up when
the pound drops.

--
*OK, so what's the speed of dark? *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On 15/06/16 10:42, Rod Speed wrote:
dennis@home wrote

Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave

Yes, but it remains to be seen if that makes any sense.

Often it doesnt with stuff like that.


I remember a foreign currency expert saying on TV that any currency goes
up until it starts going down and then it'll go down until it starts
going up.

He said it ruefully not jokingly.

Another Dave

--
Change nospam to gmx

In article ,
whisky-dave wrote:
Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.

I'd like to know why trade agreements take so long and what's involved.

Ever wondered why agreements between a union and employer can take so long?

Because both sides want to win. And to be seen to have won.

--
*Why can't women put on mascara with their mouth closed?

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On 15/06/2016 10:42, GB wrote:


What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick, for
a start. So, interest rates will go up. In theory, UK manufacturing
becomes highly competitive, but there's a long lag before output picks

I refer you to October 1992 when we dropped out of the ERM and the UK
economy started recovering immediately, and by the time Bliar blagged
his way in, the economy was doing just fine. Gob****e was handed a
dream ticket on a plate.

And millions of savers who have paid the real absolute cost of Brown
and Bliars recession can't wait for interest rates to go up.
Thwarted FTBs can't wait to see house prices correct massively
Existing house owners who have not factored in the eventuality of
'normal' interest rates (Inflation PLUS 1%) only have themselves
to blame. Falling house prices will benefit those who took out 25%
help to buy because that 25% loan goes UP and DOWN according to
house prices. It isn't fixed at the point the loan was taken out.

up, and in the meantime the balance of payments suffers. Plus, your hols
in Benidorm will cost a lot more.

Tough. People who can afford to go abroad, will also do so, regardless
of cost.

This is all the factual stuff Remainers have been talking about, and
which you simply claim is a lie. Shame on you, really.


So, now it is Lies, Damned Lies and 'Factual Stuff' ?.

On 15/06/2016 13:45, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:12:13 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 10:42, GB wrote:
What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick,
for a start. So, interest rates will go up

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation down.

and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry have
a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.


I'm sure those patient Germans who sell more cars, lorries, TBMs,
cranes, kitchens, CAT scanners, washing machines and industrial
automation (heathrow T5 baggage system, Tunnocks Tea cakes cake
wrapping system) will wait for 7 years before they can access the
UK market.

I'm sure those cossetted French farmers with their big green John Deere
tractors and Claas combines costing upwards of 150,000 euros
will desist from burning tyres on the motorways for 7 years.

On 15/06/2016 11:14, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 15/06/16 11:02, Bosco Green wrote:


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message


Only if you understand that a whole political class and their gravy
train riders' very existence is threatened by this referendum,

Like hell it is when if Britain leaves they EU they get to decide policy
again.

Indeed so, but their ability to decide policy unhampered by the next
elections outcome is massively reduced.

The British public have been woken up. They wont be lulled back to sleep
so easily.




A wander round some of the ex-council houses today shows a smattering
of Vote Leave posters in the windows. These are the people who could
turn out in far greater numbers than they bothered during a General
Election.

On 15/06/2016 11:44, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Remember you don't need to be in power to get a salary and expenses.


The Kinnock family are a case in point. A more odious family of
utterly hyocritical troughers is difficult to imagine. Puts
The Hamiltons into the shade.

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
.. .

Too bad it doesn't support the cheap point you were trying to make by
implication.

So the lowest Sterling ever got against the dollar, wasn't during the
Reign of The Late Supreme Leader, in 1985 ?

The person whose framed and signed photograph you probably have
somewhere to hand.

As I'd assume you're a bit too middle class for a tattoo.


michael adams

....

On 15/06/2016 10:25, tim... wrote:


Of course there will be a market crash after a Leave vote


That's not what happened when we crashed out of the ERM. That
was a relief all round and a massive filip to the economy.

On 15/06/2016 11:22, Capitol wrote:
Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:39:05 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 08:44, dennis@home wrote:
Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so why
do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?
Actually almost nothing is happening to the markets or the pound as the
markets have rightly assessed that the day after the referendum, almost
nothing will have changed, nor will it in the short term future.

"£20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index

More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the pound
fell as the markets took fright over the prospect of Leave vote.

Buoyant Leave campaigners will set out detailed plans today for how a
Brexit would play out."

Taken from inews site.
How much was wiped off the US and German stock exchanges? The value
of your investments can go down as well as up.

Was has spooked the markets is what is happening to the US economy.
And the usual suspect, High Frequency Trading, Hedge Funds using
borrowed stock to short sell, so they can make a quick profit is
what is happening. These people HATE calm, boring, no-news periods.

"Andrew" wrote in message
...
On 15/06/2016 11:44, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Remember you don't need to be in power to get a salary and expenses.


The Kinnock family are a case in point. A more odious family of
utterly hyocritical troughers is difficult to imagine. Puts
The Hamiltons into the shade.

That chip on your shoulder does you proud.

Ginger, and Welsh and a windbag to boot, the old man anyway and yet they
still manage to get themselves elected into all sorts of positions.

At a guess you're neither a Ginger, nor Welsh, and yet you're still unelectable.
And so your windbaggery is confined to haranguing a dozen or so total
strangers on Usenet with no chance of a pension at all.

It's maybe no wonder you're so bitter.


michael adams

....

On 15/06/2016 12:38, Capitol wrote:
Robin wrote:
On 15/06/2016 11:18, Capitol wrote:

No, sterling is ...
much higher than 40 years ago.

USD/GBP down from 2.0 in 1975Q4 to c.1.45
Deutschemark[Euro]/GBP down from 5.3 to c.1.3

Even if you start after the devaluation of sterling in 1976 we are
well down, especially against the Deutschemark.




I can recall $1.2 to the pound in the 1970s. As an importer it was
an interesting experience.

I can recall parity between the pound and dollar in 1983/84 after Reagan
jacked up interest rates to stamp out the 1970's inflationary binge
resulting from the vietnam war.

And Oil went down to $10 in the same period. I had relatives living
in Aberdeen working for Bristow. The Yanks all went home almost
overnight and the relatives were moved to East Anglia. They had to
almost give away their Aberdeen house, and buy an overpriced pile
in Norfolk at the peak in 1988.

On 15/06/2016 11:12, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 15/06/16 10:42, GB wrote:
What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick, for
a start. So, interest rates will go up

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

What a weird distorted notion of economics you seem to have.


Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation down.

Clearly not.


and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry have
a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

Hopefully, yes. But material costs will go up, whilst their contracts
may be in Sterling. So, some British industry will prosper, and some
won't. In the long run, a 30% drop in Sterling will obviously be good.

On Wednesday, 15 June 2016 15:51:12 UTC+1, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
whisky-dave wrote:
Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.

I'd like to know why trade agreements take so long and what's involved.

Ever wondered why agreements between a union and employer can take so long?

Because both sides want to win. And to be seen to have won.

I've not know it to take so long without the details being known.
but that's between two people.

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 15/06/16 10:18, tim... wrote:

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
.. .
In article , The Natural Philosopher
wrote:

On 15/06/16 09:03, Nightjar wrote:
On 15-Jun-16 8:44 AM, dennis@home wrote:
Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave

Yes.

No.

In fact sterling has been rising steadily in step with the swing
towards brexit...

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/im...buryjune-7.PNG

So its just another remainer lie, really.

and if so why do
leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

I refer you to Mandy Rice Davies.

...to understand every utterance of the remainers.

And that is fundamentally what the team on Sky News said after
Alsitair Darling had woffled his way through some kind of doom and
gloom forecast.

Only if you understand that a whole political class and their gravy
train riders' very existence is threatened by this referendum, can
you realise exactly how far the public sector troughers will go in
lies and deception to preserve the status quo.

I couldn't believe Osbourne this morning on Today. His position
essentially seems to be that they offered a referendum while having no
plan as to what to do in the event of an exit vote. So now at the last
minute (just in time for polling day) comes this threat of an emergency
budget to deal with it.

Anyone with any sense knows that if there is a Leave vote Osbourne is
toast and won't be presenting Government anything.


Osborne. No 'U' in it.

Well I don't know that for sure either.

The government is still the government. Until we have an election. And I
don't think even her High Queenness can dissolve parliament without at
least a vote of no confidence.

FTAOD

I am not suggesting that the Government will fall but that Cameroon and, as
a consequence Osborne with him, will resign PDQ in the event of a Leave
vote.

they have invested to much political capital in Remain to do anything else

tim

"michael adams" wrote in message
o.uk...

"Robin" wrote in message
...
On 15/06/2016 10:24, Nightjar wrote:


That is only to June 7th. It has been dropping over the past couple of
days. However, even more important is the volatility, which is now
nearly as high as it was during the 2008 banking crisis.



Of course we'll never know how much of this is because the PM refused to
allow contingency planning by the civil service for a "Brexit". So we
have had lots of forecasts from officials of the horrendous effects of
BREXIT following a period when the same officials were not allow to work
on how best to plan and manage a BREXIT.

They couldn't plan for it as the EU have absolutely no interest in
indicating what their negotiating position would be post Brexit.
When the UK attempts to extricate itself from its present position
and tries to renogotiate all the treaties to which it is currently
a signatory.

That doesn't mean you can't model the possibilities

that's what modelling is about, giving each possibility a percentage chance

On 15/06/16 17:06, tim... wrote:

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 15/06/16 10:18, tim... wrote:

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
.. .
In article , The Natural Philosopher
wrote:

On 15/06/16 09:03, Nightjar wrote:
On 15-Jun-16 8:44 AM, dennis@home wrote:
Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave

Yes.

No.

In fact sterling has been rising steadily in step with the swing
towards brexit...

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/im...buryjune-7.PNG

So its just another remainer lie, really.

and if so why do
leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

I refer you to Mandy Rice Davies.

...to understand every utterance of the remainers.

And that is fundamentally what the team on Sky News said after
Alsitair Darling had woffled his way through some kind of doom and
gloom forecast.

Only if you understand that a whole political class and their gravy
train riders' very existence is threatened by this referendum, can
you realise exactly how far the public sector troughers will go in
lies and deception to preserve the status quo.

I couldn't believe Osbourne this morning on Today. His position
essentially seems to be that they offered a referendum while having no
plan as to what to do in the event of an exit vote. So now at the last
minute (just in time for polling day) comes this threat of an emergency
budget to deal with it.

Anyone with any sense knows that if there is a Leave vote Osbourne is
toast and won't be presenting Government anything.


Osborne. No 'U' in it.

Well I don't know that for sure either.

The government is still the government. Until we have an election. And
I don't think even her High Queenness can dissolve parliament without
at least a vote of no confidence.

FTAOD

I am not suggesting that the Government will fall but that Cameroon and,
as a consequence Osborne with him, will resign PDQ in the event of a
Leave vote.

they have invested to much political capital in Remain to do anything else

But that would be based on the premise that either one of them has a
shred of shame, or honour, or common decency, in their personalities.

Since Blair, no one expects that.


tim







--
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as
foolish, and by the rulers as useful.

(Seneca the Younger, 65 AD)

"michael adams" wrote in message
o.uk...

"Robin" wrote in message
...
On 15/06/2016 10:24, Nightjar wrote:


That is only to June 7th. It has been dropping over the past couple of
days. However, even more important is the volatility, which is now
nearly as high as it was during the 2008 banking crisis.



Of course we'll never know how much of this is because the PM refused to
allow contingency planning by the civil service for a "Brexit". So we
have had lots of forecasts from officials of the horrendous effects of
BREXIT following a period when the same officials were not allow to work
on how best to plan and manage a BREXIT.

They couldn't plan for it as the EU have absolutely no interest in
indicating what their negotiating position would be post Brexit.
When the UK attempts to extricate itself from its present position
and tries to renogotiate all the treaties to which it is currently
a signatory.

Its the EU that doesn't have an exit strategy in place for such an
eventuality, not the UK Govt. And that's always been the case.

Just as right now its not at all clear who will be negotiating post Brexit
on the UK's behalf. There are claims that Brexiters will demand places
for Gove and Duncan-Smith so that they can be sure the UK team
will play hardball. Except of course that the EU can tell them to go
and get lost.

Anyone who seriously believes Dave was given a hard time in attempting
to renegotiate the UK's terms has seen nothing yet. There will be two or
three
years of this with the UK suffering one humilation after another.

At the end of the day we can simply walk away with "no deal".

The negotiation phase is to help the rest of the countries avoid any bad
effects of us leaving. If they don't offer us something in return for that
we don't have to accept it.

we don't have to suffer any humiliation.

tim

In article ,
Andrew wrote:
I refer you to October 1992 when we dropped out of the ERM and the UK
economy started recovering immediately, and by the time Bliar blagged
his way in, the economy was doing just fine.

Yup. North sea oil and gas coming up to peak production.

Sadly now gone.

--
*Preserve wildlife - Go pickle a squirrel*

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 14:01:53 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 13:52, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 10:18:49 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 09:52, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 09:39:05 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 08:44, dennis@home wrote:
Are sterling prices falling because we might vote leave and if so
why do leavers keep saying it will go up if we leave?

Actually almost nothing is happening to the markets or the pound as
the markets have rightly assessed that the day after the referendum,
almost nothing will have changed, nor will it in the short term
future.


"£20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index

More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the
pound fell as the markets took fright over the prospect of Leave
vote.

"More than £20bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 index yesterday and the
pound fell {snipped misquote aka lie} {insert correct words from
paragraph above}

There, fixed it for you.

Oh dear, you don't like a direct quote so you 'fix it'. Bless!


If the direct quote is of a lie, no, I don't. That's opinion, not fact.

Oh so its alright when the opinions suit you and are quoted as facts but
not the other way around? Oh dear, how sad.

Fact is the pound fell. Opinion as to why, is another level entirely.

As did the FTSE 100 - caused by people selling because they expect that
post a Brexit the companies will not be as profitable so they get out
whilst they can.

Poor profitability will also lead to further unemployment - and not only
of those immigrants who Brexiters seem to detest for whatever reason.

People are in jail for fixing FX rates. Its a fact.

and that has nothing whatsoever to do with your very wrong statement that
almost nothing is happening. Still, why bother to accept you were wrong
when you can change the parameters.



Appeals to authority are for stupid people who cant think for themselves
or count beyond ten without taking off their socks..

Great - we will see no more of your dubious facts or opinions backed up
by citations then, you seem to have learned something this afternoon -
but will no doubt have forgotten it by the evening.

On 15/06/2016 16:31, Andrew wrote:

I can recall parity between the pound and dollar in 1983/84 after Reagan
jacked up interest rates to stamp out the 1970's inflationary binge
resulting from the vietnam war.

Yep. And of course it wasn't just the pound that suffered.

Some may take comfort that, according to some sources at least, it took
a word in Reagan's ear from Mrs T to get the issue on the G5 agenda and
start the change in US policy

--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 13:58:44 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 13:45, Mark Allread wrote:
On Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:12:13 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 15/06/16 10:42, GB wrote:
What's the effect of a 30% fall? A fairly massive inflationary kick,
for a start. So, interest rates will go up

No. They will go down.

Interest rate rises cause inflation.

Why do you think we have 'quantitative easing' ? To keep inflation
down.

and 30% fall in sterling would make any british export led industry
have a massive leap in profits, if those are booked in sterling.

Pity we won't have any Trade Agreements in place.

We do. Lots.

E.G.


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/m...in-commercial-
deals-agreed-during-prime-minister-modi-visit

"India invests more in the UK than the rest of the European Union
combined [1]. In 2014-15 India emerged as Britains third biggest job
creator, creating 7,730 new jobs, with investments from India increasing
by 65% making it the third largest source of foreign direct investment
(FDI) [2]."

Oh, so we are now going to rely on India to bail us out? What happens
when the EU strikes a better deal and can also buy the raw materials at
more advantageous prices than we can?

So basically all we need to so is to partner up with India and the EU
can go **** itself.

Tut tut, such language - it almost made me blush. Why do you find it
necessary to descend to such levels and why your obsession with female
genitalia (evidenced elsewhere)? It just makes you look like a child who
thinks it is big and clever to go round shouting 'Poo!'

"tim..." wrote in message ...


The negotiation phase is to help the rest of the countries avoid any bad effects of us
leaving.

Then we'll have to agree to differ on that, and on almost
everything else regarding this topic, it would seem.


michael adams

....

On 15/06/2016 17:14, Tim... wrote:



because the Treasury refuses to calculate this for them

where is it that you expect Leave to get hold of the equivalent model in
the "free" software world?


Point of information: the "Treasury Model" is not secret. And it is
also used by the EY Item Club


--
Robin
reply-to address is (intended to be) valid

"Robin" wrote in message
...
On 15/06/2016 16:31, Andrew wrote:

I can recall parity between the pound and dollar in 1983/84 after Reagan
jacked up interest rates to stamp out the 1970's inflationary binge
resulting from the vietnam war.

Yep. And of course it wasn't just the pound that suffered.

Unless I've misunderstood something, the data seems to show that
the Federal Fund Rate peaked at around the 18/19% mark in 1981.
Pound dollar parity was lowest in 1985, by which time the Federal
Rate was down to 7/8%

It fell further to 5.9% by Sep 86 but then went up again.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate


michael adams


Some may take comfort that, according to some sources at least, it took a word in
Reagan's ear from Mrs T to get the issue on the G5 agenda and start the change in US
policy

On 15-Jun-16 12:36 PM, Capitol wrote:
.....
I'm still waiting for the positive reasons to remain!

For me, it is to avoid the economic disaster that I expect should we
leave, plus a complete lack of interest in any of the things that the
Brexit campaign puts forward as reasons to leave. Others will, no doubt,
have their own reasons.

--
--

Colin Bignell

On 15-Jun-16 5:14 PM, tim... wrote:

"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
.....
The uncertainty is very real. What happens if we stay is fairly
predictable. However, the Leave campaign has persistently failed to
put forward any credible figures for what is going to happen if we leave.

because the Treasury refuses to calculate this for them

where is it that you expect Leave to get hold of the equivalent model in
the "free" software world?

I would expect them to commission a report from any of the universities
or companies that provide expertise in the field. Of course, many of
those have already predicted that Brexit will result in a reduction in
Britain's GDP.


--
--

Colin Bignell

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
.. .
In article , michael
adams wrote:

"Tim Streater" wrote in message
...

Too bad it doesn't support the cheap point you were trying to make by
implication.

So the lowest Sterling ever got against the dollar, wasn't during the
Reign of The Late Supreme Leader, in 1985 ?

The cheap point you were trying to make was that I'd got it wrong in
saying that the rate had reached $1.05 or so in 1985.

Were I was trying to make a cheap point about your memory failing you - and
it would indeed have been a cheap point, then I would hardly have given my own
example concerning the chainsaw, would I ?

quote

"michael adams" wrote in message
o.uk...

So much for memory then.

I would have sworn in a Court of Law under oath that I bought my
yellow Landxscape GCS350N chainsaw in my local B&Q.
I can even remember bringing it home. However when I looked it
up on the Internet to source a new chain the only such saws were
sold by Argos. Not believing what I saw I searched out the manual.
With Argos clearly printed on the back.

/quote

In fact the "cheap point" is evidence of a cognitive bias whereby you
automatically associate bad numbers with the 1970's when Labour were
in power, as you did in responding to Capitol.

I can only ask you again a question I asked you before. In the course
of your work, were you ever subject to strong magnetic fields ?


michael adams

....

In article ,
tim... wrote:
Anyone who seriously believes Dave was given a hard time in
attempting to renegotiate the UK's terms has seen nothing yet. There
will be two or three years of this with the UK suffering one
humilation after another.

At the end of the day we can simply walk away with "no deal".

The negotiation phase is to help the rest of the countries avoid any bad
effects of us leaving. If they don't offer us something in return for
that we don't have to accept it.

we don't have to suffer any humiliation.

Oh but we will, if we leave. All those manufacturers and banks etc who
base here mainly because we're in the EU.

--
*The more people I meet, the more I like my dog.

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
Mark Allread wrote:
"India invests more in the UK than the rest of the European Union
combined [1]. In 2014-15 India emerged as Britain‘s third biggest job
creator, creating 7,730 new jobs, with investments from India
increasing by 65% making it the third largest source of foreign direct
investment (FDI) [2]."

Oh, so we are now going to rely on India to bail us out? What happens
when the EU strikes a better deal and can also buy the raw materials at
more advantageous prices than we can?

And India invests in the UK mainly because it gives free access to the EU.
A large market for Jaguar and Land Rover, etc. Loose that free access, and
they might as well manufacture in India - or move to an EU country.

So basically all we need to so is to partner up with India and the EU
can go **** itself.

Tut tut, such language - it almost made me blush. Why do you find it
necessary to descend to such levels and why your obsession with female
genitalia (evidenced elsewhere)? It just makes you look like a child
who thinks it is big and clever to go round shouting 'Poo!'

--
*I got a job at a bakery because I kneaded dough.*

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.