On 2015-12-30, Mike Spencer wrote:

The big picture seems to show that what Gunner is seeing is a good
indicator for the big picture. The "better, smarter companies" may be
doing good for their shareholders but they're putting increasing
numbers of people on the street or, a la Gunner, on the couch/dole.

The industry, manufacturing and other industries, will continue to do
great.

The "average" people employed by them, will continue to do poorly.

The reason for this is technology and obsolescence of humans.

i

On Tue, 29 Dec 2015 22:37:46 -0500, wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2015 17:22:05 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2015 17:09:24 -0500, wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2015 16:34:19 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2015 16:03:21 -0500, wrote:

On Tue, 29 Dec 2015 02:11:14 -0800, Gunner Asch
wrote:

On Mon, 28 Dec 2015 12:21:09 -0500, wrote:

On Mon, 28 Dec 2015 00:30:14 -0800, Gunner Asch
wrote:

On Mon, 28 Dec 2015 01:38:13 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/27/2015 7:00 AM, Steve W. wrote:

Actually there is a market for the shafting but probably not a ton of
money. There are quite a few folks out there setting up line shaft
driven shops and museums. The problem is getting the info out.

What is the Bridgeport? 3phase? Tooling?


The BP is my pride and Joy! 3-ph, 2hp. variable speed. Pretty complete
R-8 tooling, XY DRO, power x. One shot oiler. Like new, not a scratch
(almost)

So take it home and use it in your home shop. Put in your will Roger
gets it when you "loose interest"

Most they are worth is about $5-7k in good condition..at best. And at
an auction..probably about half that..at most.

Most..most auctions are held for dealers..who pay much less than full
market value so they can sell at market value +/- and make a living.
Id never pay full boat for a piece of machinery. Ever.

Gunner
But if a hobyist (or 2) was at the same auction you wouldn't get it
either. I've seen "home shop compatible" equipment bir up to almost
new list at auctions in my area. There is a local auction place that
sells fleet vehicles, banctrupt business eqipment and stock, recovered
goods from the PD, equipment from local school boards etc - and very
little machine tool equipment goes cheap.

Most...most of that is due to location. Frankly...some places one can
get a lathe/mill/drill press very cheaply..others..they can go high as
hell.

Here in California, where manufacturing is fleeing the state..but is
close to Mexico..machine tools will sell rather low if they are
vintage, but semi modern CNC will sell higher than one would expect as
they are taken south to Mexico where there is a bigger more vibrant
market.

Gunner
Same thing here - lots of businesses closing down (big business) but
lots of small business strting up - lots of high tech - and quite a
few "farm based businesses" - making things like bolts for Ford - - -
and anything else you can imagine.

But the reasons are different for California and Canada. The Canadian
automotive Tier 1 and Tier 2 manufacturers got caught in a double
bind. Part of it was the recession and part was the bargains made with
the unions here in the US. The US car makers had to bring some of
their part-making and subassembly work back to the US to compensate
for the unions' give-backs. So Canada is doing more Tier 3 work now.
That's the smaller contract job shops.

That's all in general -- mostly GM, in fact. Ford is a little
different. I have some research lined up to do on Ford this coming
spring.
The problem in Canada was the switch from the Canada US Auto pact to
"North American Free Trade" - and the "alliance between the elephant
and the mouse". There is no way that is an equal partnership and the
'mericans pulled a LOT of jobs out of Canada just because they could.

They put them there in the first place "because they could." There was
little to recommend Canada as a big automotive component/assembly
supplier to US OEMs in the first place except low price.

Some of the highest quality automobiles in North America come out of
Canadian plants.

I don't doubt that, Clare, but we're mixing up two different periods.
The Can./US Auto Pact was a deal to get volume up and costs down in
Canada, so cars could be exported profitably to the US. It was
declared illegal by the WTO in 2001. As far as I know, production cost
for complete cars was never lower from Canada.

What happened after that was pretty much a straight cost and market
decision, based on the free trade rules in NAFTA.

Low price doesn't come into the equation - with
health care and other benefits, and the highly unionized workforce,
cars can be assembled for MUCH less in either Detroit, Flint, or
Alabama.

Again, be careful about which period you're talking about. Since the
WTO action, the Canadian dollar gained twice and fell twice against
the US dollar. When the C$ versus US$ was low, we did a lot of volume
in parts -- even after the outlawing of the Auto Pact.


Then the Canadian Tier 1/Tier 2 manufacturers made big investments (we
had Wasino turning machines in 24 Canadian plants when I was marketing
manager there; that was more than we had in US top-tier suppliers) and
they held on to that market for years. As the Canadian dollar rose
against the US dollar, the writing was on the wall.

And what of the $0.72 dollar???

I assume you're speaking of the C$. As I said, part of it is a pulling
back of car and car-parts production that resulted from the bailouts.


Canada's dependency on the US automotive suppliers was a mistake, as
was California's dependency on military aerospace business.
Canada's automotive industry supplied more parts than vehicles for
many years.

The auto pact ensured that close to the same number of vehicles a
manufacturer sold in Canada were made here. We might make just Dodge
Mini-vans and rear wheel drive full size Crown Vics and Camaros and
GM pickups, but we exported as many of them as we imported all the
other American cars built in the states. That equality went right out
the window with "free trade"

That's what I mean by the mistake of dependency. And free trade is
likely to hurt someone, in all but imaginary, textbook cases. It
hasn't done us a lot of favors in the US, either, coming up against
high-volume, low-wage competition.


Now we've lost the Camaro, and nothing has taken the place of the CV .

Lear seating has now closed their plant here in Kitchener. Budd Frame
/ Thiessen Krupp closed the frame plant almost 20 years ago. Numerous
Canadian companies were bought by the Americans, given tax incentives
to keep them here, and then closed down and moved south.

Even the steel industry. American Steel bought out Stelco, got
millions of government help, and then shut the doors, in defiance of
their agreement to maintain jobs in Canada..

There cannot be an equal partnership between an elephant and a mouse -
no matter how good the mouse is.

Free trade assumes a lot of things that don't exist in the real world.
Canada built its manufacturing on HUGE infusions of US capital and
ownership. That's a prescription for vulnerability.

--
Ed Huntress

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.

Best Regards
Tom.

On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

I don't know what it costs today, it used to be expensive back in the
1980's. You have to document proper disposal in case the epa ever
shows up at your door. The epa can bankrupt a business quickly.

Best Regards
Tom.

On 2015-12-31, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

I don't know what it costs today, it used to be expensive back in the
1980's. You have to document proper disposal in case the epa ever
shows up at your door. The epa can bankrupt a business quickly.

Interesting. Some people try hard not to document anything

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-31, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

I don't know what it costs today, it used to be expensive back in the
1980's. You have to document proper disposal in case the epa ever
shows up at your door. The epa can bankrupt a business quickly.

Interesting. Some people try hard not to document anything

Cash only, no checks, no credit cards. All sales final. The
illinois department of revenue still caught that merchant.
Happened back in the 1970's to surplus dealer i knew.

Best Regards
Tom.

On 2015-12-31, Howard Beal wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-31, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

I don't know what it costs today, it used to be expensive back in the
1980's. You have to document proper disposal in case the epa ever
shows up at your door. The epa can bankrupt a business quickly.

Interesting. Some people try hard not to document anything

Cash only, no checks, no credit cards. All sales final. The
illinois department of revenue still caught that merchant.
Happened back in the 1970's to surplus dealer i knew.

CASH ONLY is like having a big target painted on your back...

i

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 13:51:21 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:


I don't doubt that, Clare, but we're mixing up two different periods.
The Can./US Auto Pact was a deal to get volume up and costs down in
Canada, so cars could be exported profitably to the US. It was
declared illegal by the WTO in 2001. As far as I know, production cost
for complete cars was never lower from Canada.

What happened after that was pretty much a straight cost and market
decision, based on the free trade rules in NAFTA.

Low price doesn't come into the equation - with
health care and other benefits, and the highly unionized workforce,
cars can be assembled for MUCH less in either Detroit, Flint, or
Alabama.

Again, be careful about which period you're talking about. Since the
WTO action, the Canadian dollar gained twice and fell twice against
the US dollar. When the C$ versus US$ was low, we did a lot of volume
in parts -- even after the outlawing of the Auto Pact.

How low does the Looney have to go? We are down around seventy two
cents right now.

Only a few short periods where we were above parity - and never very
much. OK, it was $2.78 in 1864, Sinse then I think it hit $1.08 or
$1.10 for a few hours or days in Nov 2007 , but also went down to
$61.9 in 2002,

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 19:22:25 -0600, Ignoramus24626
wrote:

On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i
A LOT. Up to $1000 per ton. Up here in Canada Aevitas is one company
that does it. My late brother worked for them (driving truck) They
dechlorinate PCB contaminated oils and recycle. Not sure if they use
sodium or not.

For a while the "normal" way to get rid of it was incineration at
cement plants (making portland cement by "burning lime"

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-31, Howard Beal wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-31, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in
message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold
a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

I don't know what it costs today, it used to be expensive back in the
1980's. You have to document proper disposal in case the epa ever
shows up at your door. The epa can bankrupt a business quickly.

Interesting. Some people try hard not to document anything

Cash only, no checks, no credit cards. All sales final. The
illinois department of revenue still caught that merchant.
Happened back in the 1970's to surplus dealer i knew.

CASH ONLY is like having a big target painted on your back...

i

Yep, a huge pile of greenbacks is almost useless in our times.

Best Regards
Tom.

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 22:24:56 -0500, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 13:51:21 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:


I don't doubt that, Clare, but we're mixing up two different periods.
The Can./US Auto Pact was a deal to get volume up and costs down in
Canada, so cars could be exported profitably to the US. It was
declared illegal by the WTO in 2001. As far as I know, production cost
for complete cars was never lower from Canada.

What happened after that was pretty much a straight cost and market
decision, based on the free trade rules in NAFTA.

Low price doesn't come into the equation - with
health care and other benefits, and the highly unionized workforce,
cars can be assembled for MUCH less in either Detroit, Flint, or
Alabama.

Again, be careful about which period you're talking about. Since the
WTO action, the Canadian dollar gained twice and fell twice against
the US dollar. When the C$ versus US$ was low, we did a lot of volume
in parts -- even after the outlawing of the Auto Pact.

How low does the Looney have to go? We are down around seventy two
cents right now.

Only a few short periods where we were above parity - and never very
much. OK, it was $2.78 in 1864, Sinse then I think it hit $1.08 or
$1.10 for a few hours or days in Nov 2007 , but also went down to
$61.9 in 2002,

As I said, there are other factors involved now in the decisions. Cost
was a major factor before the rescue of GM and Chrysler. To analyze it
now I'd have to spend a lot of time doing research. I am digging back
into the business side of the industry over the next few months, but
I'm not focusing on Canada.

If you followed my point, it was that, since the WTO action and the
bailout, the vulnerability that Canada faces in the automobile
industry has been exposed. You can't rely on the health or the
decision-making process of the US auto industry. They've been tossed
around by economic winds themselves.

--
Ed Huntress

On 12/30/2015 8:24 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:

If you really want an insight into where manufacturing is going, and
what factors will influence manufacturing employment in the immediate
future, go back to Google and search for "Industry 4.0." That's what's
really happening. And that's where the demand is for future
employment.


Will there be a sizable niche for small manufacturing? As a for
instance, most small brush makers have been gobbled up, I think because
the markets are mature and there's not much room for product innovation.
The only way to expand is to take your smaller competitors share. I
imagine most small manufacturers will follow suite.

Ignoramus24626 wrote:
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.
I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i
Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

Price depends on the actual concentration of PCB. That is because
certain levels trigger different disposal criteria.
Most places use 500ppm as the trigger point. Under that amount is MUCH
cheaper!

I paid $2.45 gal. in 2013 to dispose of a 55 gallon drum of 175 ppm oil.

IIRC it was $18.XX a gallon for over 500ppm.

Waste Management can give you current prices.

--
Steve W.

Tom Gardner wrote:
On 12/30/2015 8:24 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:
If you really want an insight into where manufacturing is going, and
what factors will influence manufacturing employment in the immediate
future, go back to Google and search for "Industry 4.0." That's what's
really happening. And that's where the demand is for future
employment.


Will there be a sizable niche for small manufacturing? As a for
instance, most small brush makers have been gobbled up, I think because
the markets are mature and there's not much room for product innovation.
The only way to expand is to take your smaller competitors share. I
imagine most small manufacturers will follow suite.


I know of a few job shops that have started up and are doing quite well.
They make parts for machinery and equipment that the manufacturer has
either abandoned or went belly up. One has a simple shop, Lathe (large
OLD Logan), K&T mill, a plasma table, and MIG/TIG/Stick welding. He's
currently setting up a heat treating oven and is thinking of adding a
small foundry to cast some of the oddball parts.

Another one is doing similar work and gets stuff from the local town and
highway departments on a weekly basis. His "production" work is making
different "crafty items" for some Amish greenhouses (plant hangers,
hooks, mini-windmills and such) he makes blanks of the item and they do
the shaping and finish work.

Even today a good job shop can make good money.
So put up a nice building and set that BP up and start makin' chips.

--
Steve W.

On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
Now, about your "robot bartender." It's YOU who should look at those
Google listings, because none of them actually have replaced humans.
They're gee-whiz demonstration projects, like the hamburger assembling
robots that get Iggy excited. They aren't anybody's employment
problem. Whether they ever will be is open to speculation.

And the reason for that is that the mechanics of automation are no
longer the limiting factor in further implementation. The limiting
factor now is coordinating vast amounts of data -- control data,
monitoring data, optimizing data, ordering data -- it's a software
problem. General-subject reporters see the robots. Manufacturing
managers see the data piling up.

Do you really think that we must have people putting patties on buns
and taking orders? Come on

i

On 2015-12-31, Steve W. wrote:
Ignoramus24626 wrote:
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.
I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i
Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

i

Price depends on the actual concentration of PCB. That is because
certain levels trigger different disposal criteria.
Most places use 500ppm as the trigger point. Under that amount is MUCH
cheaper!

I paid $2.45 gal. in 2013 to dispose of a 55 gallon drum of 175 ppm oil.

IIRC it was $18.XX a gallon for over 500ppm.

Waste Management can give you current prices.


OK, this seems expensive, but manageable.

i

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 00:31:32 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/30/2015 8:24 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:

If you really want an insight into where manufacturing is going, and
what factors will influence manufacturing employment in the immediate
future, go back to Google and search for "Industry 4.0." That's what's
really happening. And that's where the demand is for future
employment.


Will there be a sizable niche for small manufacturing? As a for
instance, most small brush makers have been gobbled up, I think because
the markets are mature and there's not much room for product innovation.
The only way to expand is to take your smaller competitors share. I
imagine most small manufacturers will follow suite.

I don't know. I'm sure there are good projections from the big
consulting firms, but they're probably proprietary.

There are two basic market streams for small shops: One is to be part
of some big supply chain, and the other is to be an independent of
some sort. The supply chains are being shaped to accomodate their
small-shop tiers. That's been going on for decades in the automotive,
aerospace, and electrical-machinery supply chains. What's harder to
figure is where things will go for the independents.

My guess is that it depends on how many niches are going to be out
there. They might produce a product that has a small niche, or they
might specialize in a process that serves some larger OEMs without
becoming part of the general supply chain. For example, there are
shops out there now that do nothing but laser buildup and repair of
jet turbine blades. Repair work will always be there. But the numbers
for the future are hard to figure.

In the late '70s, there were 147,000 metalworking companies in the US.
Over 100,000 of them had fewer than 20 employees. In maybe 15 minutes
with the Census NAICS Code data, you could figure out where it is
today, and see what the trend is. I haven't done that for years but my
gut feeling is that the number hasn't declined very much, if at all.

New process niches keep popping up all the time, so the situation for
general job shops may be fairly stable. As for very small
manufacturers, I doubt if the situation will be as good. They'll
either get bought up or go under.

I'm sure that the bigger industry analysts have a better handle on it.

--
Ed Huntress

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 22:24:56 -0500, wrote:

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 13:51:21 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:


I don't doubt that, Clare, but we're mixing up two different periods.
The Can./US Auto Pact was a deal to get volume up and costs down in
Canada, so cars could be exported profitably to the US. It was
declared illegal by the WTO in 2001. As far as I know, production cost
for complete cars was never lower from Canada.

What happened after that was pretty much a straight cost and market
decision, based on the free trade rules in NAFTA.

Low price doesn't come into the equation - with
health care and other benefits, and the highly unionized workforce,
cars can be assembled for MUCH less in either Detroit, Flint, or
Alabama.

Again, be careful about which period you're talking about. Since the
WTO action, the Canadian dollar gained twice and fell twice against
the US dollar. When the C$ versus US$ was low, we did a lot of volume
in parts -- even after the outlawing of the Auto Pact.

How low does the Looney have to go? We are down around seventy two
cents right now.

Just a little bit more and Lee Valley Tools will be buyable again.
But I'm retiring, and won't be buying many more tools.


Only a few short periods where we were above parity - and never very
much. OK, it was $2.78 in 1864, Sinse then I think it hit $1.08 or
$1.10 for a few hours or days in Nov 2007 , but also went down to
$61.9 in 2002,

That's when I liked it best, as a buyer of Canadian tools. It didn't
do you much good though, did it? Condolences.

--
Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes.
Art is knowing which ones to keep.
-- Scott Adams, 'The Dilbert Principle'

Ignoramus24995 wrote:
On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
Now, about your "robot bartender." It's YOU who should look at those
Google listings, because none of them actually have replaced humans.
They're gee-whiz demonstration projects, like the hamburger assembling
robots that get Iggy excited. They aren't anybody's employment
problem. Whether they ever will be is open to speculation.

And the reason for that is that the mechanics of automation are no
longer the limiting factor in further implementation. The limiting
factor now is coordinating vast amounts of data -- control data,
monitoring data, optimizing data, ordering data -- it's a software
problem. General-subject reporters see the robots. Manufacturing
managers see the data piling up.

Do you really think that we must have people putting patties on buns
and taking orders? Come on

Food vending machines and help yourself smorgasbords and buffets
have been around a lot longer than robots. If a restaurant gets
rid of food servers it won't be with robots. A robot that performed
all the tasks of an $8/hr fast food worker is going to cost
a whole lot more than a robot to replace a $50/hr assembly line
worker that is performing some repetitive task like welding
a particular seam on an automobile body.

On Wed, 30 Dec 2015 19:22:25 -0600, Ignoramus24626
wrote:

On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

You could always call your friends down at the EPA, wot?

Talk with your local sanitation company. If they can't do it, they'll
know who can. I'll bet it's expensive, though.
https://www.google.com/search?q=pcb+oil+disposal

As an Oregon contractor, I have a chart of quantities of all sorts of
weird effluents I can produce (and/or dump) per year without extra
licensing. Seeing it surprised me. As I don't produce any, I quickly
forgot about it until now. But the people who handle the hazmat stuff
get 4x the price for it. I'm sure that's typical for PCBs, too.

--
Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes.
Art is knowing which ones to keep.
-- Scott Adams, 'The Dilbert Principle'

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 07:54:36 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
Now, about your "robot bartender." It's YOU who should look at those
Google listings, because none of them actually have replaced humans.
They're gee-whiz demonstration projects, like the hamburger assembling
robots that get Iggy excited. They aren't anybody's employment
problem. Whether they ever will be is open to speculation.

And the reason for that is that the mechanics of automation are no
longer the limiting factor in further implementation. The limiting
factor now is coordinating vast amounts of data -- control data,
monitoring data, optimizing data, ordering data -- it's a software
problem. General-subject reporters see the robots. Manufacturing
managers see the data piling up.

Do you really think that we must have people putting patties on buns
and taking orders? Come on

i

Nope, we don't need them. But I think we'll be keeping them for a
*very* long time.

Your talking about changing a financial structure to include a lot of
up-front capital. Figure the life cycle cost on a $50,000 six-axis
robot with a lifetime of 8 years, including maintenance and
programming; staging for a continuously-changing menu of products;
linear transport of components to the robot; etc., etc.

Then figure out how long it will take to get people used to the idea.
This isn't painting their cars. This is making their food.

The robots that could do that kind of work have been around for over
20 years. Now think about why they aren't assembling burgers right
now.

--
Ed Huntress

On Wednesday, December 30, 2015 at 9:10:18 PM UTC-5, Ignoramus24626 wrote:
On 2015-12-31, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:

"Ignoramus24626" wrote in message
...
On 2015-12-30, azotic wrote:
I attended an auction back in the 1980's where the auctioneer sold a
trailer full of oil filled capacitors (PCB) to an uneducated
buyer. As I understand it that was a popular way of disposing of
toxic waste back then.

I wonder what is the preferred method now...

i

Mini storage units.


Tom, any idea how much does it cost to legally dispose of PCBs?

Say, you have a 500 kvs transformer that holds maybe a barrel of PCB
(just making stuff up as I go). What would it cost to dispose of PCB
legally?

I don't know what it costs today, it used to be expensive back in
the 1980's. You have to document proper disposal in case the epa
ever shows up at your door. The epa can bankrupt a business quickly.

Interesting. Some people try hard not to document anything

People just don't want to go through the rounds. That's all.

On 12/31/2015 7:57 AM, Steve W. wrote:

I know of a few job shops that have started up and are doing quite well.
They make parts for machinery and equipment that the manufacturer has
either abandoned or went belly up. One has a simple shop, Lathe (large
OLD Logan), K&T mill, a plasma table, and MIG/TIG/Stick welding. He's
currently setting up a heat treating oven and is thinking of adding a
small foundry to cast some of the oddball parts.

Another one is doing similar work and gets stuff from the local town and
highway departments on a weekly basis. His "production" work is making
different "crafty items" for some Amish greenhouses (plant hangers,
hooks, mini-windmills and such) he makes blanks of the item and they do
the shaping and finish work.

Even today a good job shop can make good money.
So put up a nice building and set that BP up and start makin' chips.


I did quite a few jobs after selling out the brush business. i just
suddenly got old and have no stamina left. My latest adventure was a
TIA a couple of weeks ago, scared the crap out of me. I would like to
have a play room that wasn't 25 miles away like the shop is! I still
have ideas that I'd like to build.

On 12/31/2015 9:08 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
New process niches keep popping up all the time, so the situation for
general job shops may be fairly stable. As for very small
manufacturers, I doubt if the situation will be as good. They'll
either get bought up or go under.

I'm sure that the bigger industry analysts have a better handle on it.


I see, from my perspective I've watched my industry shrink in number of
players without new companies coming on line. There are really only 5
big boy players each commanding a different market segment. I had three
offers on my business when we put it on the market. Two were domestic
and one from Canada that wanted my flat wire technology and market REAL
bad. The Canadian company needed to grow and open a new market.
Canadians are weird people I found out and have a strange way of doing
things. I had a lot of frustration getting them to do things in a
timely manner and they wouldn't listen to me about how to do things and
how to relate to US customers. I thought it was just me until I spoke
with others in the industry and found out that that's just how Canadians
roll.

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 13:05:24 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/31/2015 9:08 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
New process niches keep popping up all the time, so the situation for
general job shops may be fairly stable. As for very small
manufacturers, I doubt if the situation will be as good. They'll
either get bought up or go under.

I'm sure that the bigger industry analysts have a better handle on it.


I see, from my perspective I've watched my industry shrink in number of
players without new companies coming on line. There are really only 5
big boy players each commanding a different market segment. I had three
offers on my business when we put it on the market. Two were domestic
and one from Canada that wanted my flat wire technology and market REAL
bad. The Canadian company needed to grow and open a new market.
Canadians are weird people I found out and have a strange way of doing
things. I had a lot of frustration getting them to do things in a
timely manner and they wouldn't listen to me about how to do things and
how to relate to US customers. I thought it was just me until I spoke
with others in the industry and found out that that's just how Canadians
roll.

g Maybe you should ask Clare. Why did Tom run into weird Canadians?
d8-)

The only thing that bothered me about them (I haven't been there in
years, but used to go every year) was the Quebecois who could speak
English, but wouldn't.

Of course, I've talked to French people who say the Quebecois don't
speak French, either...

--
Ed Huntress

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 13:05:24 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/31/2015 9:08 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
New process niches keep popping up all the time, so the situation for
general job shops may be fairly stable. As for very small
manufacturers, I doubt if the situation will be as good. They'll
either get bought up or go under.

I'm sure that the bigger industry analysts have a better handle on it.


I see, from my perspective I've watched my industry shrink in number of
players without new companies coming on line. There are really only 5
big boy players each commanding a different market segment. I had three
offers on my business when we put it on the market. Two were domestic
and one from Canada that wanted my flat wire technology and market REAL
bad. The Canadian company needed to grow and open a new market.
Canadians are weird people I found out and have a strange way of doing
things. I had a lot of frustration getting them to do things in a
timely manner and they wouldn't listen to me about how to do things and
how to relate to US customers. I thought it was just me until I spoke
with others in the industry and found out that that's just how Canadians
roll.
Some. Others are just yankees with a touque

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 13:27:47 -0500, Ed Huntress
wrote:

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 13:05:24 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/31/2015 9:08 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
New process niches keep popping up all the time, so the situation for
general job shops may be fairly stable. As for very small
manufacturers, I doubt if the situation will be as good. They'll
either get bought up or go under.

I'm sure that the bigger industry analysts have a better handle on it.


I see, from my perspective I've watched my industry shrink in number of
players without new companies coming on line. There are really only 5
big boy players each commanding a different market segment. I had three
offers on my business when we put it on the market. Two were domestic
and one from Canada that wanted my flat wire technology and market REAL
bad. The Canadian company needed to grow and open a new market.
Canadians are weird people I found out and have a strange way of doing
things. I had a lot of frustration getting them to do things in a
timely manner and they wouldn't listen to me about how to do things and
how to relate to US customers. I thought it was just me until I spoke
with others in the industry and found out that that's just how Canadians
roll.

g Maybe you should ask Clare. Why did Tom run into weird Canadians?
d8-)

The only thing that bothered me about them (I haven't been there in
years, but used to go every year) was the Quebecois who could speak
English, but wouldn't.

Of course, I've talked to French people who say the Quebecois don't
speak French, either...
Depends where the Canadians were from. Oilberta is almost North
Dakota.

In many ways so is Saskatchewan.

Some parts of BC are just like California North.

I saw one company recently, they have huge lathes and horizontal
boring mills. He does repair work for huge crank shaft driven presses
and makes replacement crankshafts. His raw material forgings weigh
about 20 tons. He machines them into crankshafts. He also told me
something almost unbelievable, that the forgings are X rayed! I did
not know that you could X ray a 3 foot diameter chunk of steel. The
guy is smart, very cheap, somewhat messy, does not even have any
oil-dri, just lets the concrete absorb everything. His words not mine.

i

On 2015-12-31, Tom Gardner wrote:
I see, from my perspective I've watched my industry shrink in number of
players without new companies coming on line. There are really only 5
big boy players each commanding a different market segment. I had three
offers on my business when we put it on the market. Two were domestic
and one from Canada that wanted my flat wire technology and market REAL
bad. The Canadian company needed to grow and open a new market.
Canadians are weird people I found out and have a strange way of doing
things. I had a lot of frustration getting them to do things in a
timely manner and they wouldn't listen to me about how to do things and
how to relate to US customers. I thought it was just me until I spoke
with others in the industry and found out that that's just how Canadians
roll.


Since many years ago, I have a policy to never sell anything to any
Canadians. The reasons are exactly as above.

i

On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 07:54:36 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
Now, about your "robot bartender." It's YOU who should look at those
Google listings, because none of them actually have replaced humans.
They're gee-whiz demonstration projects, like the hamburger assembling
robots that get Iggy excited. They aren't anybody's employment
problem. Whether they ever will be is open to speculation.

And the reason for that is that the mechanics of automation are no
longer the limiting factor in further implementation. The limiting
factor now is coordinating vast amounts of data -- control data,
monitoring data, optimizing data, ordering data -- it's a software
problem. General-subject reporters see the robots. Manufacturing
managers see the data piling up.

Do you really think that we must have people putting patties on buns
and taking orders? Come on

i

Nope, we don't need them. But I think we'll be keeping them for a
*very* long time.

Your talking about changing a financial structure to include a lot of
up-front capital. Figure the life cycle cost on a $50,000 six-axis
robot with a lifetime of 8 years, including maintenance and
programming; staging for a continuously-changing menu of products;
linear transport of components to the robot; etc., etc.

Then figure out how long it will take to get people used to the idea.
This isn't painting their cars. This is making their food.

The robots that could do that kind of work have been around for over
20 years. Now think about why they aren't assembling burgers right
now.


How much is the labor cost, in terms of percentage of the burger
price?

i

On 2015-12-31, Tom Gardner wrote:
I did quite a few jobs after selling out the brush business. i just
suddenly got old and have no stamina left. My latest adventure was a
TIA a couple of weeks ago, scared the crap out of me. I would like to
have a play room that wasn't 25 miles away like the shop is! I still
have ideas that I'd like to build.


What is a TIA?

i

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 16:21:43 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 07:54:36 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Ed Huntress wrote:
Now, about your "robot bartender." It's YOU who should look at those
Google listings, because none of them actually have replaced humans.
They're gee-whiz demonstration projects, like the hamburger assembling
robots that get Iggy excited. They aren't anybody's employment
problem. Whether they ever will be is open to speculation.

And the reason for that is that the mechanics of automation are no
longer the limiting factor in further implementation. The limiting
factor now is coordinating vast amounts of data -- control data,
monitoring data, optimizing data, ordering data -- it's a software
problem. General-subject reporters see the robots. Manufacturing
managers see the data piling up.

Do you really think that we must have people putting patties on buns
and taking orders? Come on

i

Nope, we don't need them. But I think we'll be keeping them for a
*very* long time.

Your talking about changing a financial structure to include a lot of
up-front capital. Figure the life cycle cost on a $50,000 six-axis
robot with a lifetime of 8 years, including maintenance and
programming; staging for a continuously-changing menu of products;
linear transport of components to the robot; etc., etc.

Then figure out how long it will take to get people used to the idea.
This isn't painting their cars. This is making their food.

The robots that could do that kind of work have been around for over
20 years. Now think about why they aren't assembling burgers right
now.


How much is the labor cost, in terms of percentage of the burger
price?

i

Deloitte says the average total labor cost for fast-food restaurants
is 30% - 35% of gross sales. That includes prep cooks (which the robot
would replace); grill cooks (unknown if robots would be involved);
counter help; and managers.

A much more likely replacement -- one that is followed by a couple of
franchise operations here -- is replacing most of the counter help
with touch-screen ordering.

--
Ed Huntress

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 12:51:02 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/31/2015 7:57 AM, Steve W. wrote:

I know of a few job shops that have started up and are doing quite well.
They make parts for machinery and equipment that the manufacturer has
either abandoned or went belly up. One has a simple shop, Lathe (large
OLD Logan), K&T mill, a plasma table, and MIG/TIG/Stick welding. He's
currently setting up a heat treating oven and is thinking of adding a
small foundry to cast some of the oddball parts.

Another one is doing similar work and gets stuff from the local town and
highway departments on a weekly basis. His "production" work is making
different "crafty items" for some Amish greenhouses (plant hangers,
hooks, mini-windmills and such) he makes blanks of the item and they do
the shaping and finish work.

Even today a good job shop can make good money.
So put up a nice building and set that BP up and start makin' chips.


I did quite a few jobs after selling out the brush business. i just
suddenly got old and have no stamina left. My latest adventure was a
TIA a couple of weeks ago, scared the crap out of me. I would like to
have a play room that wasn't 25 miles away like the shop is! I still
have ideas that I'd like to build.

Condolences on the TIA. Scary ****, that. Is there any room on your
property (on your block?) for a small shop building?

--
Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes.
Art is knowing which ones to keep.
-- Scott Adams, 'The Dilbert Principle'

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 16:22:43 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Tom Gardner wrote:
I did quite a few jobs after selling out the brush business. i just
suddenly got old and have no stamina left. My latest adventure was a
TIA a couple of weeks ago, scared the crap out of me. I would like to
have a play room that wasn't 25 miles away like the shop is! I still
have ideas that I'd like to build.


What is a TIA?

Transient Ischemic Attack, or mini-stroke.


--
Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes.
Art is knowing which ones to keep.
-- Scott Adams, 'The Dilbert Principle'

On 12/31/2015 5:19 PM, Ignoramus24995 wrote:

Since many years ago, I have a policy to never sell anything to any
Canadians. The reasons are exactly as above.

i


If I had it to do all over again I would have gone with Osborn but the
Canadians offered more...it seemed at the time. I had to fight tooth
and nail with them to pay the taxes and utility bills and such on time
as we did toll manufacturing for them for 7 months.

Never again!

On 2016-01-01, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 12/31/2015 5:19 PM, Ignoramus24995 wrote:

Since many years ago, I have a policy to never sell anything to any
Canadians. The reasons are exactly as above.

i


If I had it to do all over again I would have gone with Osborn but the
Canadians offered more...it seemed at the time. I had to fight tooth
and nail with them to pay the taxes and utility bills and such on time
as we did toll manufacturing for them for 7 months.

Never again!

Common sense, general attitude towards humanity, and fairness would
all suggest that Canadian buyers are just like any other buyers.

This is the attitude that I ignorantly started off with on ebay, 15
years ago.

That attitude was SHATTERED to bits after a few bad experiences (and
zero good experiences).

I kept on selling to Canadians because, I thought, that was a fluke,
could not be anything but a fluke.

But it was not a fluke, and the nonsense, nonpayments, inane requests,
personality trips, false disputes, and such, continued unabated.

To this date, I do not understand what could possibly be the cause.

i

On 2016-01-01, Larry Jaques wrote:
On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 16:22:43 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Tom Gardner wrote:
I did quite a few jobs after selling out the brush business. i just
suddenly got old and have no stamina left. My latest adventure was a
TIA a couple of weeks ago, scared the crap out of me. I would like to
have a play room that wasn't 25 miles away like the shop is! I still
have ideas that I'd like to build.


What is a TIA?

Transient Ischemic Attack, or mini-stroke.



Thank you

"Ignoramus24995" wrote in message
...
On 2016-01-01, Tom Gardner wrote:
On 12/31/2015 5:19 PM, Ignoramus24995 wrote:

Since many years ago, I have a policy to never sell anything to any
Canadians. The reasons are exactly as above.

i


If I had it to do all over again I would have gone with Osborn but the
Canadians offered more...it seemed at the time. I had to fight tooth
and nail with them to pay the taxes and utility bills and such on time
as we did toll manufacturing for them for 7 months.

Never again!

Common sense, general attitude towards humanity, and fairness would
all suggest that Canadian buyers are just like any other buyers.

This is the attitude that I ignorantly started off with on ebay, 15
years ago.

That attitude was SHATTERED to bits after a few bad experiences (and
zero good experiences).

I kept on selling to Canadians because, I thought, that was a fluke,
could not be anything but a fluke.

But it was not a fluke, and the nonsense, nonpayments, inane requests,
personality trips, false disputes, and such, continued unabated.

To this date, I do not understand what could possibly be the cause.

i


Simple answer: manic frugality.

Best Regards
Tom.

On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 16:19:29 -0600, Ignoramus24995
wrote:

On 2015-12-31, Tom Gardner wrote:
I see, from my perspective I've watched my industry shrink in number of
players without new companies coming on line. There are really only 5
big boy players each commanding a different market segment. I had three
offers on my business when we put it on the market. Two were domestic
and one from Canada that wanted my flat wire technology and market REAL
bad. The Canadian company needed to grow and open a new market.
Canadians are weird people I found out and have a strange way of doing
things. I had a lot of frustration getting them to do things in a
timely manner and they wouldn't listen to me about how to do things and
how to relate to US customers. I thought it was just me until I spoke
with others in the industry and found out that that's just how Canadians
roll.


Since many years ago, I have a policy to never sell anything to any
Canadians. The reasons are exactly as above.

i
You must have been dealing with the wrong Canadians.

I've delt with some of the "wrong" americans too.

I don't paint( or tar) you guys all with the same brush.