On Thu, 31 Dec 2015 00:31:32 -0500, Tom Gardner
wrote:

On 12/30/2015 8:24 PM, Ed Huntress wrote:

If you really want an insight into where manufacturing is going, and
what factors will influence manufacturing employment in the immediate
future, go back to Google and search for "Industry 4.0." That's what's
really happening. And that's where the demand is for future
employment.


Will there be a sizable niche for small manufacturing? As a for
instance, most small brush makers have been gobbled up, I think because
the markets are mature and there's not much room for product innovation.
The only way to expand is to take your smaller competitors share. I
imagine most small manufacturers will follow suite.

I don't know. I'm sure there are good projections from the big
consulting firms, but they're probably proprietary.

There are two basic market streams for small shops: One is to be part
of some big supply chain, and the other is to be an independent of
some sort. The supply chains are being shaped to accomodate their
small-shop tiers. That's been going on for decades in the automotive,
aerospace, and electrical-machinery supply chains. What's harder to
figure is where things will go for the independents.

My guess is that it depends on how many niches are going to be out
there. They might produce a product that has a small niche, or they
might specialize in a process that serves some larger OEMs without
becoming part of the general supply chain. For example, there are
shops out there now that do nothing but laser buildup and repair of
jet turbine blades. Repair work will always be there. But the numbers
for the future are hard to figure.

In the late '70s, there were 147,000 metalworking companies in the US.
Over 100,000 of them had fewer than 20 employees. In maybe 15 minutes
with the Census NAICS Code data, you could figure out where it is
today, and see what the trend is. I haven't done that for years but my
gut feeling is that the number hasn't declined very much, if at all.

New process niches keep popping up all the time, so the situation for
general job shops may be fairly stable. As for very small
manufacturers, I doubt if the situation will be as good. They'll
either get bought up or go under.

I'm sure that the bigger industry analysts have a better handle on it.

--
Ed Huntress