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Metalworking (rec.crafts.metalworking) Discuss various aspects of working with metal, such as machining, welding, metal joining, screwing, casting, hardening/tempering, blacksmithing/forging, spinning and hammer work, sheet metal work. |
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#1
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Recession a Media created myth...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,343671,00.html
The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth Tuesday , April 01, 2008 By John R. Lott, Jr. During the 2000 election, with Bill Clinton as president, the economy was viewed through rose-colored glasses. According to polls, voters didn’t realize that the country was in a recession. Although the economy started shrinking in July 2000, most Americans through the entire year thought that the economy was fine. But over the last half-year, the media and politicians have said we were in a recession even while the economy was still growing. Gas prices are going up. The economy is slowing. Talk of recession is seemingly everywhere. While the majority of people rate their personal finances positively, consumer confidence in the economy has plunged to a 16-year low, well below what it was during the last year of the Clinton administration when we were in a recession. A Nexis search on news stories during the three-month period from July 2000 through September 2000 using the keywords “economy recession US” produces 1,388. By contrast, the same search over just the last month finds 3,166. Or, even more telling, take the three months from July through September last year, when the GDP was growing at a phenomenal 4.9 percent. The same type of Google search shows 2,475 news stories. Over 78 percent more negative news stories discussed a recession when the economy under a Republican was soaring than occurred under a Democrat when the economy was shrinking. A little perspective on the economy would be helpful. The average unemployment rate during President Clinton was 5.2 percent. The average under President George W. Bush is just slightly below 5.2. The current unemployment rate is4.8 percent, almost half a percentage point lower than these averages. The average inflation rate under Clinton was 2.6 percent, under Bush it is 2.7 percent. Indeed, one has to go back to the Kennedy administration to find a lower average rate. True the inflation rate over the last year has gone up to 4 percent, but that is still lower than the average inflation rate under all the presidents from Nixon through Bush’s father. Gas prices are indeed up 33 percent over the last year, but to get an average of 4 percent means that lots of other prices must have stayed the same or gone down. On other fronts, seasonally adjusted civilian employment is 650,000 people greater than it was a year ago. Personal income grew at a strong half of one percent in just February. Despite all that, this last week, Barack Obama proclaimed “As most experts know, our economy is in a recession.” Hillary Clinton made similar staements last fall. Yet, as any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven’t even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. The economy slowed down significantly during the end of last year, but that was after a sizzling annual GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter. Housing has obviously been a big drag on the economy, but many other sectors of the economy, such as exports, have been doing well, some extremely well. For example, aerospace exports increased by over 13 percent last year. The media’s focus on the negative side of everything surely helps explain people’s pessimism. In a recent interview Fox’s Neil Cavuto claimed this bias “is all part of the media’s plan to get a Democrat in the White House.” Indeed, research has indicated that media bias is real. Kevin Hassett and I looked at 12,620 newspaper and wire service headlines from 1985 through 2004 for stories on the release of official government releasing numbers on the unemployment rate, number of people employed, gross domestic product (GDP), retail sales, and durable goods. Even after accounting for how well the economy was doing (e.g., what the unemployment rate was and whether it was going up or down), there was still a big difference in how positive or negative the headlines were. Democratic presidents got about 15 percent more positive headlines than Republicans for the same economic news. Yet, the hysteria created by this coverage can have another cost. It creates pressure for government to “do something,” even if that rush to do something actually ends up hurting the economy. For example, Obama's promises last week “to amend our bankruptcy laws so families aren't forced to stick to the terms of a home loan” will only further drive down the value of mortgage-backed securities, making any unstable financial institutions that hold them even more likely to fail. In the long term, who is going to want to loan money when the contract can be rewritten at a later date? The news media have generated a lot of fear. Ben Stein has a point when he says “The actual economic conditions are not that bad. I think if we have a recession, if we have a serious recession, a great deal will lie at the media’s feet.” Hopefully a little perspective will enter the picture before even more harm is done. John Lott is the author of Freedomnomics and a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland. -- Steve W. |
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Recession a Media created myth...
"Steve W." wrote in message ... http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,343671,00.html The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth Tuesday , April 01, 2008 By John R. Lott, Jr. During the 2000 election, with Bill Clinton as president, the economy was viewed through rose-colored glasses. According to polls, voters didn’t realize that the country was in a recession. Although the economy started shrinking in July 2000, most Americans through the entire year thought that the economy was fine. Mary Rosh is at it again. Compare this with something Lott says below: Despite all that, this last week, Barack Obama proclaimed “As most experts know, our economy is in a recession.” Hillary Clinton made similar staements last fall. Yet, as any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven’t even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. Mary is screwing the numbers at both ends. GDP growth actually peaked in the first quarter of 2001. (NBER's revised date is now February 2001.) So, according to his statement immediately above, that's when the recession began in 2001. But now he's saying that the current recessionary period doesn't meet the same criteria that he used for 2001 -- a pool of four sets of data, of which GDP is one, that NBER uses to determine the peaks of growth. As we saw when he was here on RCM under hist pseudonym, Mr. Lott likes to twist numbers to suit his agenda. -- Ed Huntress |
#3
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Tue, 01 Apr 2008 13:07:13 -0400 in rec.crafts.metalworking,
"Steve W." wrote, http://www.foxnews.com/ Please do not post OFF TOPIC articles. |
#4
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Recession a Media created myth...
The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth Tuesday , April 01, 2008 By John R. Lott, Jr. During the 2000 election, with Bill Clinton as president, the economy was viewed through rose-colored glasses. According to polls, voters didn't realize that the country was in a recession. Although the economy started shrinking in July 2000, most Americans through the entire year thought that the economy was fine. Mary Rosh is at it again. Compare this with something Lott says below: Despite all that, this last week, Barack Obama proclaimed "As most experts know, our economy is in a recession." Hillary Clinton made similar staements last fall. Yet, as any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven't even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. Mary is screwing the numbers at both ends. GDP growth actually peaked in the first quarter of 2001. (NBER's revised date is now February 2001.) So, according to his statement immediately above, that's when the recession began in 2001. But now he's saying that the current recessionary period doesn't meet the same criteria that he used for 2001 -- a pool of four sets of data, of which GDP is one, that NBER uses to determine the peaks of growth. As we saw when he was here on RCM under hist pseudonym, Mr. Lott likes to twist numbers to suit his agenda. -- Ed Huntress Oh yeah, it's the media that has fooled everyone into believing that things are ****ty. It has nothing to do with the $3.50 a gallon gasoline, or the run up in prices for food, or all the stories of people losing jobs, or the news about the huge losses in the financial sector and credit markets, or the 12% decline in the stock market, or the continuing rise in health care costs, not to mention all the foreclosures and the huge losses in the value of everyone's homes. Yep, I think it's just a myth people are buying into that things are declining. I mean look at the facts. Things are great, right? Hawke |
#5
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 1, 9:46 am, "Ed Huntress" Yet, as any economist knows, a
recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven't even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. -- Ed Huntress As I understand it, GDP did not decline in the fourth quarter of 2007. I could not find any hard data for the first quarter of 2008, but even if the GDP did decline in the first quarter, a official recession could not be declared until after the second quarter showed a decline. So it will be at least July before one can say we are in a recession. And the predictions I saw on the internet are for the GDP growth to be small but positive. So I did not understand what you were saying. Dan |
#6
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 1, 1:03*pm, "Hawke" Oh yeah, it's the media that has fooled
everyone into believing that things are ****ty. It has nothing to do with the $3.50 a gallon gasoline, or the run up in prices for food, or all the stories of people losing jobs, or the news about the huge losses in the financial sector and credit markets, or the 12% decline in the stock market, or the continuing rise in health care costs, not to mention all the foreclosures and the huge losses in the value of everyone's homes. Yep, I think it's just a myth people are buying into that things are declining. I mean look at the facts. Things are great, right? Hawke Things are always bad for some of the people. They seem great for me right now. Declines in housing and the stockmarket only count if you are selling. I don't have a job, so can't lose that. Planning on having a larger garden this year and selling what I can't eat. And it looks like Hillary will not get the D. nomination. Can hardly get better than that. Dan |
#7
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Recession a Media created myth...
wrote in message ... On Apr 1, 9:46 am, "Ed Huntress" Yet, as any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven't even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. -- Ed Huntress As I understand it, GDP did not decline in the fourth quarter of 2007. I could not find any hard data for the first quarter of 2008, but even if the GDP did decline in the first quarter, a official recession could not be declared until after the second quarter showed a decline. So it will be at least July before one can say we are in a recession. And the predictions I saw on the internet are for the GDP growth to be small but positive. So I did not understand what you were saying. What you said there is accurate; recessions can only be declared accurately after the revised figures for GDP come in, which often is a year or more later. The basic definition is that two sequential quarters of declining GDP indicate a recession. But that's an academic definition, and only one of several. In fact, there are four criteria for a recession that are used by the US government. That's an aside, however. What I was commenting on was that Lott used two different explanations of recession -- one to indicate that the 2001 recession actually started earlier than claimed, and a different one to indicate we aren't in a recession now. As we've seen from him before (and as some of his fellow econometricians have pointed out in the past), he's using a sleight-of-hand, switching from one definition to another, to make two separate cases that should be measured identically if his point is valid. Aside from that, economists use a variety of current indicators that correspond well to the state of the GDP and they are handicapping the question of whether we're now in a recession. Most seem to think we are, or that we're at the tipping point and on a downward slope. I haven't seen what the Fed has been saying about it lately so I don't know what the official position is. -- Ed Huntress |
#8
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 2, 1:23 pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
associates.us wrote: On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 13:10:00 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I haven't seen what the Fed has been saying about it lately so I don't know what the official position is. ============= In your opinion, how much credibility does the data from the Fed, BLS, etc. now have? Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). April 2, 2008, 12:51PM EST text size: TT What Bernanke Didn't Say In his first congressional appearance since intervening to prop up Bear Stearns, the Fed chief refused to call it a bailout--nor would he say there's a recession by Peter Coy Two words are hard to drag out of Ben Bernanke's mouth: recession and bailout. The Federal Reserve chairman predicted on Apr. 2 in prepared testimony to the congressional Joint Economic Committee that the economy "will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly." What he didn't say is that the U.S. was in a recession. As for the Fed's financing to help JPMorgan Chase's takeover of Bear Stearns, Bernanke said "Sudden failure of Bear Stearns likely would have led to a chaotic unwinding of positions in those markets and could have severely shaken confidence." But he didn't call it a bailout. Bernanke faced tough questioning from senators and representatives in his first appearance before Congress since the Fed arranged the emergency weekend agreement by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) to take over Bear Stearns (BSC) on Mar. 16. The Federal Reserve supplied $29 billion to the deal in exchange for $30 billion worth of hard-to-sell assets owned by Bear Stearns, such as mortgage-backed securities. In response to a question from the committee chairman, Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), Bernanke said, "A recession is possible. But a recession is a technical term defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research depending on data which will be available quite a while from now, so I'm not yet ready to say whether or not the U.S. economy will face such a situation." Most of the questions concerned the Bear deal, not the economy, which many economists believe has already entered a recession. Several committee members asked, in effect, why the Fed appeared to be bailing out Wall Street but not Main Street. An Extraordinary Action Bernanke had three answers: First, he said, "A default by Bear Stearns could have been severe and extremely difficult to contain." Second, he said, the Fed expects to get all of its $29 billion back. Third, he agreed that action to help homeowners is essential, but that's a job for Congress, not the Fed. There were a few flashes of drama. One came in response to a question by Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) about why Bernanke intervened to stop Bear from failing. Brownback asked whether other failing firms might get similar treatment. Bernanke said he "thought long and hard" before intervening, and called it an extraordinary action. He said he hoped he would never have to do it again. Schumer peppered Bernanke with questions about the Bear bailout and then juxtaposed that with what he believed was a lack of help to millions of people at risk of losing their homes. "I hope that you will use your position to jawbone this administration to get behind the housing relief effort before Congress," Schumer said. "Addressing the housing crisis head-on will do as much to instill confidence in the markets as lowering interest rates or bolstering regulatory oversight of wayward mortgage lenders and financial institutions. We need to do all of it." Market Reaction Mixed Later in the hearing, Senator Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) raised his voice, repeatedly asking Bernanke to give his views on fiscal measures that could be taken by Congress and the Bush Administration. Bernanke declined to do so. Market reaction to Bernanke's testimony was mixed. Stocks initially dipped, then rose slightly. Economists at Bear Stearns noted Bernanke "downplayed risks [of] inflation," which they interpreted as "leaving the door open to a further rate cut on Apr. 30." They speculated that it would be only a quarter-percentage-point cut, however. Bernanke said he expects more economic growth in the second half of this year and into 2009, helped by the government's $168 billion stimulus package of tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses as well as the Fed's aggressive rate reductions. "Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place," he said, and monetary and fiscal policies are in place "that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year." |
#9
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Recession a Media created myth...
"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message ... On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 13:10:00 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I haven't seen what the Fed has been saying about it lately so I don't know what the official position is. ============= In your opinion, how much credibility does the data from the Fed, BLS, etc. now have? Which data? As long as you understand how the data is delimited and defined, and as long as you read the methodology, I think you can rely on all of the major indicators. I know from experience that some of the minor data collected from the BEA is not accurate, but you would know that if you read the methodology for collecting it. For their purposes, using it as a minute piece of a cumulative statistic, it was fine. For my purposes (writing about world trade) it was not. But we fixed that. The BEA was ready to change their data-gathering method for that piece of the pie, and we just prodded them a bit. A bigger issue is the meaning of common indicators, such as GDP. You have to know what it's really telling you, and which conclusions you can and can't draw from it. The reason for this is that the indicators are created for one purpose, but they often get used for purposes for which they aren't suited. -- Ed Huntress |
#10
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Recession a Media created myth...
"Too_Many_Tools" wrote in message ... On Apr 2, 1:23 pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee- associates.us wrote: On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 13:10:00 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I haven't seen what the Fed has been saying about it lately so I don't know what the official position is. ============= In your opinion, how much credibility does the data from the Fed, BLS, etc. now have? Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). April 2, 2008, 12:51PM EST text size: TT What Bernanke Didn't Say In his first congressional appearance since intervening to prop up Bear Stearns, the Fed chief refused to call it a bailout--nor would he say there's a recession by Peter Coy snip And how is that Business Week article a response to George's question? -- Ed Huntress |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 09:57:26 -0700 (PDT), "
wrote: On Apr 1, 9:46 am, "Ed Huntress" Yet, as any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and we haven't even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. -- Ed Huntress As I understand it, GDP did not decline in the fourth quarter of 2007. I could not find any hard data for the first quarter of 2008, but even if the GDP did decline in the first quarter, a official recession could not be declared until after the second quarter showed a decline. So it will be at least July before one can say we are in a recession. And the predictions I saw on the internet are for the GDP growth to be small but positive. So I did not understand what you were saying. Dan ================ He means the water is pouring in through the holes at the other end of the boat from where he is setting.... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
#12
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 13:10:00 -0400, "Ed Huntress"
wrote: I haven't seen what the Fed has been saying about it lately so I don't know what the official position is. ============= In your opinion, how much credibility does the data from the Fed, BLS, etc. now have? Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
#13
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Recession a Media created myth...
"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message ... On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 11:50:49 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools wrote: April 2, 2008, 12:51PM EST text size: TT What Bernanke Didn't Say In his first congressional appearance since intervening to prop up Bear Stearns, the Fed chief refused to call it a bailout--nor would he say there's a recession by Peter Coy Two words are hard to drag out of Ben Bernanke's mouth: recession and bailout. snip In response to a question from the committee chairman, Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), Bernanke said, "A recession is possible. But a recession is a technical term defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research depending on data which will be available quite a while from now, so I'm not yet ready to say whether or not the U.S. economy will face such a situation." Most of the questions concerned the Bear deal, not the economy, which many economists believe has already entered a recession. Several committee members asked, in effect, why the Fed appeared to be bailing out Wall Street but not Main Street. snip ============== IMNSHO, it is the "too big to fail" rationale in action, which in this instance may well have been correct. [B/S had written 10 Trillion dollars of CDSs...] What is not answered, either in Bernanke's response nor Paulson's proposed "overhaul" of the securities regulations [which appears to weaken, not strengthen many of the oversights/controls] is why firms, financial or otherwise, that are "too big to fail" are allowed to exist, or if charterered/domiciled outside US control [e.g. Long Term Capital Management, most other hedge funds, and the "trustees for the CDO/MBOs] are allowed to solicit customers or own assets within the US. The risk "too big to fail" represents (and the gun this hold to the head of the Fed and US government) has been known from at least 1984. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contine...rust_Compa ny Note that this not need be a single entity, but an aggregated economic sector such as the S&Ls, which went "belly up" in the late 80s, showing that nothing had been learned (and acted on) from the Continental Illinois debacle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolut...st_Corporation I think the answer you would get from most close observers is that the globalized finance industry doesn't give brownie points for well-regulated participants. You're either in the game, internationally, or you're not. You either lead the way, or you follow. The US, including many liberal members of Congress back in the '80s and '90s, decided that they would give the US industry a chance to play at the top tier, and hopefully to dominate, at a time when London, Paris, and (in the '80s) Tokyo were threatening to take that position. That they largely did. -- Ed Huntress |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 11:50:49 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools
wrote: April 2, 2008, 12:51PM EST text size: TT What Bernanke Didn't Say In his first congressional appearance since intervening to prop up Bear Stearns, the Fed chief refused to call it a bailout--nor would he say there's a recession by Peter Coy Two words are hard to drag out of Ben Bernanke's mouth: recession and bailout. snip In response to a question from the committee chairman, Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), Bernanke said, "A recession is possible. But a recession is a technical term defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research depending on data which will be available quite a while from now, so I'm not yet ready to say whether or not the U.S. economy will face such a situation." Most of the questions concerned the Bear deal, not the economy, which many economists believe has already entered a recession. Several committee members asked, in effect, why the Fed appeared to be bailing out Wall Street but not Main Street. snip ============== IMNSHO, it is the "too big to fail" rationale in action, which in this instance may well have been correct. [B/S had written 10 Trillion dollars of CDSs...] What is not answered, either in Bernanke's response nor Paulson's proposed "overhaul" of the securities regulations [which appears to weaken, not strengthen many of the oversights/controls] is why firms, financial or otherwise, that are "too big to fail" are allowed to exist, or if charterered/domiciled outside US control [e.g. Long Term Capital Management, most other hedge funds, and the "trustees for the CDO/MBOs] are allowed to solicit customers or own assets within the US. The risk "too big to fail" represents (and the gun this hold to the head of the Fed and US government) has been known from at least 1984. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contine...rust_Compa ny Note that this not need be a single entity, but an aggregated economic sector such as the S&Ls, which went "belly up" in the late 80s, showing that nothing had been learned (and acted on) from the Continental Illinois debacle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolut...st_Corporation The Congressional intermural "grab-ass" matches and ongoing Congress/Administration punch-n-judy show to divert the great unwashed [and generate campaign contributions] continue, even as the Titanic's list increases... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
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Recession a Media created myth...
"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message ... On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 15:56:30 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I think the answer you would get from most close observers is that the globalized finance industry doesn't give brownie points for well-regulated participants. You're either in the game, internationally, or you're not. You either lead the way, or you follow. The US, including many liberal members of Congress back in the '80s and '90s, decided that they would give the US industry a chance to play at the top tier, and hopefully to dominate, at a time when London, Paris, and (in the '80s) Tokyo were threatening to take that position. That they largely did. -- Ed Huntress =============== This may indeed be the case, but it fails to address the WIIFM [what's in it for me] question from the citizen's/taxpayer's point of view. Why should I as a taxpayer give a rap if CSFB, Merril Lynch, Bear Stearns, BlackRock, Carlyle, etc. makes a dime, or gets to play with the big boys? There are lengthy answers to that, and short ones. The short ones aren't worth spit and I'm not writing any long ones. d8-) This segues into yet more questions/observations: You can review SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, it appears to have been written by several individuals (or even several working groups), and combined in a word processor for consistent formatting and spell check, as the proposed actions are not consistent, except for the themes of "deregulation," and yet more "free market." [The phrase "if you can't impress them with your brilliance, baffle them with your bulls**t" comes to mind here.] The lead editorial in the Tuesday April 1 WSJ notes: "... the mortgage mania and panic weren't caused by a failure of the regulatory "structure" or a dearth of rules. {however I note that a lack of *ENFORCEMENT* of those rules may well have been a proximent cause} ==They were caused by a failure of the men and women who ran those financial and regulatory institutions."== (emphasis added) {I also note that the "results" as measured by the personal gains to these individuals may have been highly satisfactory, although a failure and catastrophe to the stockholders and taxpayers.} SecTres Paulson's proposed "overhaul" does not appear to address the vital question of corporate governance or individual responsibility/accountability in any way. It's catching a lot of flak outside of the business/financial community. It does appear to be more of the same, with some self-regulation by the financial industries that are at fault. Ha. A lot of good that will do. Given the tendency of long serving officers and directors to regard the corporation as "theirs," (rather than the stockholders') I suggest the immediate imposition of term limits on individual tenure for the positions of CEO, CFO and directors of all major publicly traded corporations. Both for particular positions, and in combination, for example no person allowed to serve as CEO or CFO for more than 8 years or as CEO and CFO for more than a total of 12 years, with directors limited to a total of 10 years, including any service as CEO and/or CFO. Oh, I'm sure that will be a favorite everywhere. They'll call you an outright Marxist. g "More of the same only better," is not going to hack it this time. Maybe that's all we're going to get. Nobody seems to know what else to do. -- Ed Huntress |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 15:56:30 -0400, "Ed Huntress"
wrote: I think the answer you would get from most close observers is that the globalized finance industry doesn't give brownie points for well-regulated participants. You're either in the game, internationally, or you're not. You either lead the way, or you follow. The US, including many liberal members of Congress back in the '80s and '90s, decided that they would give the US industry a chance to play at the top tier, and hopefully to dominate, at a time when London, Paris, and (in the '80s) Tokyo were threatening to take that position. That they largely did. -- Ed Huntress =============== This may indeed be the case, but it fails to address the WIIFM [what's in it for me] question from the citizen's/taxpayer's point of view. Why should I as a taxpayer give a rap if CSFB, Merril Lynch, Bear Stearns, BlackRock, Carlyle, etc. makes a dime, or gets to play with the big boys? This segues into yet more questions/observations: You can review SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, it appears to have been written by several individuals (or even several working groups), and combined in a word processor for consistent formatting and spell check, as the proposed actions are not consistent, except for the themes of "deregulation," and yet more "free market." [The phrase "if you can't impress them with your brilliance, baffle them with your bulls**t" comes to mind here.] The lead editorial in the Tuesday April 1 WSJ notes: "... the mortgage mania and panic weren't caused by a failure of the regulatory "structure" or a dearth of rules. {however I note that a lack of *ENFORCEMENT* of those rules may well have been a proximent cause} ==They were caused by a failure of the men and women who ran those financial and regulatory institutions."== (emphasis added) {I also note that the "results" as measured by the personal gains to these individuals may have been highly satisfactory, although a failure and catastrophe to the stockholders and taxpayers.} SecTres Paulson's proposed "overhaul" does not appear to address the vital question of corporate governance or individual responsibility/accountability in any way. Given the tendency of long serving officers and directors to regard the corporation as "theirs," (rather than the stockholders') I suggest the immediate imposition of term limits on individual tenure for the positions of CEO, CFO and directors of all major publicly traded corporations. Both for particular positions, and in combination, for example no person allowed to serve as CEO or CFO for more than 8 years or as CEO and CFO for more than a total of 12 years, with directors limited to a total of 10 years, including any service as CEO and/or CFO. "More of the same only better," is not going to hack it this time. Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 2, 9:10*am, "Ed Huntress"
That's an aside, however. What I was commenting on was that Lott used two different explanations of recession -- one to indicate that the 2001 recession actually started earlier than claimed, and a different one to indicate we aren't in a recession now. -- Ed Huntress Looking at the data, we did not have a recession in 2000 or 2001. Three quarters of negative growth out of five quarters, but no two negative growth quarters in a row. So maybe more jitter than trend. But he does have a point in that there is a lot of discussion about recession now in the media, and we may not have even one quarter of negative growth this year or next. I suspect it is not so much caused by a liberal trend by the media. More likely just the media acting as a herd. The economy in Washington State is still doing pretty well. House prices have quit rising, but have not dropped much. Unemployment is low and the jobs are more tech than McDonalds. Dan |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 2, 11:21*am, F. George McDuffee
He means the water is pouring in through the holes at the other end of the boat from where he is setting.... Unka' George [George McDuffee] I see a awful lot of status buying going on, so the economy can't be doing too badly. Bottled water, hybrid cars, wine, granite counter tops, stainless kitchen appliances, organic foods , starbucks coffee etc. Dan |
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Recession a Media created myth...
F. George McDuffee wrote:
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 15:56:30 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I think the answer you would get from most close observers is that the globalized finance industry doesn't give brownie points for well-regulated participants. You're either in the game, internationally, or you're not. You either lead the way, or you follow. The US, including many liberal members of Congress back in the '80s and '90s, decided that they would give the US industry a chance to play at the top tier, and hopefully to dominate, at a time when London, Paris, and (in the '80s) Tokyo were threatening to take that position. That they largely did. -- Ed Huntress =============== This may indeed be the case, but it fails to address the WIIFM [what's in it for me] question from the citizen's/taxpayer's point of view. Why should I as a taxpayer give a rap if CSFB, Merril Lynch, Bear Stearns, BlackRock, Carlyle, etc. makes a dime, or gets to play with the big boys? This segues into yet more questions/observations: You can review SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, "His" entire proposal has as much chance of being effective as your cat and dog do of having offspring. This cluster **** looks a lot like the Department of Homeland Security, an ineffective and costly combination of Boondogle and Fiasco that has been so incompetently staffed that instead of a joke, it's a nightmare and a costly one at that. Given the purpose of the Federal Reserve, why would you want to remove their day to day oversight of financial institutions and put this in the hands of a political operative? Nothing, not one single thing, in the proposed reforms adresses any of the underlying problems and in fact, exacerbates them. Sheesh. -- John R. Carroll www.machiningsolution.com |
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Recession a Media created myth...
wrote in message ... On Apr 2, 9:10 am, "Ed Huntress" That's an aside, however. What I was commenting on was that Lott used two different explanations of recession -- one to indicate that the 2001 recession actually started earlier than claimed, and a different one to indicate we aren't in a recession now. -- Ed Huntress Looking at the data, we did not have a recession in 2000 or 2001. Three quarters of negative growth out of five quarters, but no two negative growth quarters in a row. So maybe more jitter than trend. What you're running into here is two different definitions of "recession," once again. Lott says "as every economist knows" it's two sequential quarters of declining GDP. I called that the "basic" definition, pointing out that NBER uses additional criteria -- employment, real income, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales. So here Lott is caught in a contradiction. He says "as every economist knows," but, as you point out, there weren't two sequential quarters of GDP decline in 2001: http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp# (set the years to show 2000 and 2001). The recession of 2001 was a recession according to the *official* definition, which is the NBER's, and which shows the recession began in March 2001 (apparently revised now to February) and ended in November 2001. Here's a brief USA today story on the NBER report, before the revision. They call the two quarters of negative GDP a "thumbnail definition": http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...ecession_x.htm And here's a FAQ from the NBER that describes the whole thing succinctly: http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html But he does have a point in that there is a lot of discussion about recession now in the media, and we may not have even one quarter of negative growth this year or next. I suspect it is not so much caused by a liberal trend by the media. Where it's coming from is a statement by Martin Feldstein, who heads the NBER, that we are now in a recession: http://www.boston.com/business/artic...mist_declares/ When Feldstein speaks, people listen. It isn't "official" until the NBER declares it so, but Feldstein is one of the oracles of the US economy, and his word is enough to start a run of newspaper articles and TV reports. More likely just the media acting as a herd. Well, yeah, but they're all reporting what's coming from the NBER and Feldstein, along with some other authorities. The economy in Washington State is still doing pretty well. House prices have quit rising, but have not dropped much. Unemployment is low and the jobs are more tech than McDonalds. That's true in a lot of places. The way the economy works now, recessions are going to vary a lot by region. GDP is becoming a less reliable indicator of how much people are feeling in general. -- Ed Huntress |
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Recession a Media created myth...
"F. George McDuffee" wrote in message news On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 23:00:12 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: snip GDP is becoming a less reliable indicator of how much people are feeling in general. snip =============== Indeed, as it is becoming increasingly evident that much of the reported "profits" either never existed (as anyone in their right mind would define a profit) or are were not (and never will be) "repatriated" into the US economy, where they would be taxed. Many of the "reported" profits seem to have been paper or book only, i.e. trading a 5 billion dollar cat for 10 billion dollar dog, and posting a 5 billion dollar "profit" on the transaction. This goes a long way to "explaining" how the financial services sector was able to generate 40% of all corporate profits. That's all true, and it's alarming to see how much of reported corporate profit comes from the financial sector, but I'm not sure that has a lot to do with GDP. Actual transactions are what they measure. I'd have to look into it to see how much of that is funny-money financial transactions (but I'm busy reading _The Nine_ right now, so someone else will have to do it). The increasingly skewed distribution of the GDP is another factor. The metric for this is called the GINI coefficient or index. I know its hard to understand, but no matter how much money the CEO pays himself, the ungrateful employees still insist on feeling poor.... Someone is going to have to clarify this for the general press, and soon. We don't get clear explanations of how income distribution is measured and compared in the economics world. All we get is this smoke and mirrors game from the current administration, based on playing shell games with income quintiles. It really covers up the facts very effectively, and the press has been compliant in reporting their nonsense. -- Ed Huntress |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 23:00:12 -0400, "Ed Huntress"
wrote: snip GDP is becoming a less reliable indicator of how much people are feeling in general. snip =============== Indeed, as it is becoming increasingly evident that much of the reported "profits" either never existed (as anyone in their right mind would define a profit) or are were not (and never will be) "repatriated" into the US economy, where they would be taxed. Many of the "reported" profits seem to have been paper or book only, i.e. trading a 5 billion dollar cat for 10 billion dollar dog, and posting a 5 billion dollar "profit" on the transaction. This goes a long way to "explaining" how the financial services sector was able to generate 40% of all corporate profits. The increasingly skewed distribution of the GDP is another factor. The metric for this is called the GINI coefficient or index. I know its hard to understand, but no matter how much money the CEO pays himself, the ungrateful employees still insist on feeling poor.... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:14:52 GMT, "John R. Carroll"
wrote: You can review SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, "His" entire proposal has as much chance of being effective as your cat and dog do of having offspring. This cluster **** looks a lot like the Department of Homeland Security, an ineffective and costly combination of Boondogle and Fiasco that has been so incompetently staffed that instead of a joke, it's a nightmare and a costly one at that. ============= John: If you read and understood all that "you done good!" I got through the summary (7 pages, several 1/2 filled) and only about the first 75 pages of the actual document [out of 212, most pretty dense with foot notes] What seems to be clear is that the regulatory agencies have been largely captured by the regulated, and the Treasury Department and the Fed have almost no knowledge of what's actually occurring, nor what sort of liabilities exist. Case in point is the huge [but largely unknown] amount of CDS [credit debt swaps] overhanging the market. Bear Stearns by itself had created 10 trillion $US notational/face value of these. I may have missed it, but I never saw the words felony, fine, prison term, disgorgement, or conspiracy, in this document. More of the same only better, smaller, lighter, cheaper, quicker, yada-yada-yada... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 10:07:57 -0700 (PDT), "
wrote: On Apr 1, 1:03*pm, "Hawke" Oh yeah, it's the media that has fooled everyone into believing that things are ****ty. It has nothing to do with the $3.50 a gallon gasoline, or the run up in prices for food, or all the stories of people losing jobs, or the news about the huge losses in the financial sector and credit markets, or the 12% decline in the stock market, or the continuing rise in health care costs, not to mention all the foreclosures and the huge losses in the value of everyone's homes. Yep, I think it's just a myth people are buying into that things are declining. I mean look at the facts. Things are great, right? Hawke Things are always bad for some of the people. They seem great for me right now. Declines in housing and the stockmarket only count if you are selling. I don't have a job, so can't lose that. Planning on having a larger garden this year and selling what I can't eat. And it looks like Hillary will not get the D. nomination. Can hardly get better than that. Dan I was at Westec yesterday http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Gunner |
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Recession a Media created myth...
Our sales were up 15% in '07 over the previous year and the first
quarter of this year was just as good. We're selling stuff all over the world, and actually getting paid for a change, because the dollar is weak and people can afford to buy our stuff. The imported junk that would normally "compete" only on price... is getting relatively more expensive, and all the bad publicity surrounding Chinese toys, food, and drugs is giving "Buy American" a boost (even if it's not for patriotic reasons). The foundries and machine shops that we buy from all have long lead times and all of the hourly people that I know are complaining about too much "mandatory" overtime. I'm working on buying my first house... one that's newer and bigger than I could afford a year ago; because some D.I.N.K.s bought more than they could afford during the "boom". Food is as cheap as it's ever been in the history of man. An hour of work feeds the four of us for a day or two; which is ridiculous when you stop and think about it. The share value of my IRA is down a little since it's November peak; but it's still up 23% since January '07 and 37% since January '06; so somebody there obviously knows which stocks to avoid. LOL Every day I read about this supposed "recession" the media has been hyping and say, "God, please let it last!" The liberal news media would like nothing better than to convince everyone that we're in a Republican created recession, going into the elections. Hopefully the economy will take off again and that plan will backfire on them! "Gunner" wrote in message ... I was at Westec yesterday http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Gunner |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:57:00 -0700, with neither quill nor qualm,
Gunner quickly quoth: I was at Westec yesterday DAMN, I missed it again. Whoa, it all fit into Kentia Hall and the two connected buildings? It was literally stuffed into 6 or 7 buildings when Terry and I went in 2000 or 2001. It shrunk by 70%? http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? With some larger corporate machine shops going out of business or shifting their mfg centers overseas, much of the fallout is to the little guys, ah reckon. There are lots of companies, myself included, who won't outsource offshore, ever. When those large corporations moved, not all their customers were happy. Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Speaking of military, I just finished John Ringo's _Hell's Faire_ and am sure glad you pointed out the Sluggy Freelance cartoon to me when you did. The references in that were absolutely hilarious. GREAT book! BunBun did, indeed, ROCK! -- That man is the richest whose pleasures are the cheapest. -- Henry David Thoreau |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 06:36:56 -0700, Larry Jaques
wrote: On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:57:00 -0700, with neither quill nor qualm, Gunner quickly quoth: I was at Westec yesterday DAMN, I missed it again. Whoa, it all fit into Kentia Hall and the two connected buildings? It was literally stuffed into 6 or 7 buildings when Terry and I went in 2000 or 2001. It shrunk by 70%? http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? With some larger corporate machine shops going out of business or shifting their mfg centers overseas, much of the fallout is to the little guys, ah reckon. There are lots of companies, myself included, who won't outsource offshore, ever. When those large corporations moved, not all their customers were happy. Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Speaking of military, I just finished John Ringo's _Hell's Faire_ and am sure glad you pointed out the Sluggy Freelance cartoon to me when you did. The references in that were absolutely hilarious. GREAT book! BunBun did, indeed, ROCK! Btw...there will occasionally show up in military scifi, reference to March of Cambreath. Its a mp3. If you dont have it...Id be happy to send it to you..for reference purposes only of course. Gunner |
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Recession a Media created myth...
"David Courtney" wrote in message . .. Our sales were up 15% in '07 over the previous year and the first quarter of this year was just as good. We're selling stuff all over the world, and actually getting paid for a change, because the dollar is weak and people can afford to buy our stuff. The imported junk that would normally "compete" only on price... is getting relatively more expensive, and all the bad publicity surrounding Chinese toys, food, and drugs is giving "Buy American" a boost (even if it's not for patriotic reasons). The foundries and machine shops that we buy from all have long lead times and all of the hourly people that I know are complaining about too much "mandatory" overtime. I'm working on buying my first house... one that's newer and bigger than I could afford a year ago; because some D.I.N.K.s bought more than they could afford during the "boom". Food is as cheap as it's ever been in the history of man. An hour of work feeds the four of us for a day or two; which is ridiculous when you stop and think about it. The share value of my IRA is down a little since it's November peak; but it's still up 23% since January '07 and 37% since January '06; so somebody there obviously knows which stocks to avoid. LOL Every day I read about this supposed "recession" the media has been hyping and say, "God, please let it last!" The liberal news media would like nothing better than to convince everyone that we're in a Republican created recession, going into the elections. Hopefully the economy will take off again and that plan will backfire on them! What do you mean take off? You just made it sound like the economy is doing great. If you are not a complete fool you know that the economy stinks. Last quarter of '07 it grew .06%. That sucks. The first quarter of '08 is also going to be a stinker. But you think things are going well. Are you just stupid or are you pretending things are going good because you don't want to blame republicans? Or both? Hawke |
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Recession a Media created myth...
" wrote:
I see a awful lot of status buying going on, so the economy can't be doing too badly. Bottled water, hybrid cars, wine, granite counter tops, stainless kitchen appliances, organic foods , starbucks coffee etc. Most people have a land line and cell phones, can afford satelite TV or cable instead of OTA, drive optioned out auto's, buy prepared foods, have dsl, ect. That is just the blue collar working stiffs complaining about how hard it getting to just get by. The one's that have it tough are those eating ramen noodles to save money to pay for tooling and machines for the garage shop. Wes -- "Additionally as a security officer, I carry a gun to protect government officials but my life isn't worth protecting at home in their eyes." Dick Anthony Heller |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 3, 8:30 am, "David Courtney" wrote:
Our sales were up 15% in '07 over the previous year and the first quarter of this year was just as good. We're selling stuff all over the world, and actually getting paid for a change, because the dollar is weak and people can afford to buy our stuff. The imported junk that would normally "compete" only on price... is getting relatively more expensive, and all the bad publicity surrounding Chinese toys, food, and drugs is giving "Buy American" a boost (even if it's not for patriotic reasons). The foundries and machine shops that we buy from all have long lead times and all of the hourly people that I know are complaining about too much "mandatory" overtime. I'm working on buying my first house... one that's newer and bigger than I could afford a year ago; because some D.I.N.K.s bought more than they could afford during the "boom". Food is as cheap as it's ever been in the history of man. An hour of work feeds the four of us for a day or two; which is ridiculous when you stop and think about it. The share value of my IRA is down a little since it's November peak; but it's still up 23% since January '07 and 37% since January '06; so somebody there obviously knows which stocks to avoid. LOL Every day I read about this supposed "recession" the media has been hyping and say, "God, please let it last!" The liberal news media would like nothing better than to convince everyone that we're in a Republican created recession, going into the elections. Hopefully the economy will take off again and that plan will backfire on them! "Gunner" wrote in message ... I was at Westec yesterday http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Gunner David: May I have the name and phone number of your financial adviser? I'd like to get in on some of that 23% action. Certainly well outperformed the S&P. -Mike |
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I missed the Staff meeting, but the Memos showed that Gunner
wrote on Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:57:00 -0700 in rec.crafts.metalworking : On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 10:07:57 -0700 (PDT), " wrote: On Apr 1, 1:03*pm, "Hawke" Oh yeah, it's the media that has fooled everyone into believing that things are ****ty. It has nothing to do with the $3.50 a gallon gasoline, or the run up in prices for food, or all the stories of people losing jobs, or the news about the huge losses in the financial sector and credit markets, or the 12% decline in the stock market, or the continuing rise in health care costs, not to mention all the foreclosures and the huge losses in the value of everyone's homes. Yep, I think it's just a myth people are buying into that things are declining. I mean look at the facts. Things are great, right? Hawke Things are always bad for some of the people. They seem great for me right now. Declines in housing and the stockmarket only count if you are selling. I don't have a job, so can't lose that. Planning on having a larger garden this year and selling what I can't eat. And it looks like Hillary will not get the D. nomination. Can hardly get better than that. Dan I was at Westec yesterday http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. All I know is that at the company meeting, they announced that they were not going to ramp up production until our buyer got his act together. We'll stick to the 5 kits a month, and not go to the 7 as was guesstimated last fall. But in the mean time, the overtime would continue, as we have this huge pile of orders to fill, and not enough people to spread out the work. My heart bleeds chunky peanut butter. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? The secret GOP subsidy stockpile? Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Gunner -- pyotr filipivich "I had just been through hell and must have looked like death warmed over walking into the saloon, because when I asked the bartender whether they served zombies he said, ‘Sure, what'll you have?'" from I Hear America Swinging by Peter DeVries |
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F. George McDuffee wrote:
On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:14:52 GMT, "John R. Carroll" wrote: You can review SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, "His" entire proposal has as much chance of being effective as your cat and dog do of having offspring. This cluster **** looks a lot like the Department of Homeland Security, an ineffective and costly combination of Boondogle and Fiasco that has been so incompetently staffed that instead of a joke, it's a nightmare and a costly one at that. ============= John: If you read and understood all that "you done good!" I'd read the rider too the omnibus appropriation that passed the house before the Chrismass break in 2000. Its a couple hundred pages that Brother Phil Graham stuck in to deregulate the derivitave bussiness. I also have a copy around somewhere of the study that Paulson and his tards massaged into a/"His" proposal. That was why I originally said "His". I recognized the material. You don't suppose he and Pat Paulsom have traded places or something do you? LOL We'd be better off! -- John R. Carroll www.machiningsolution.com |
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On Apr 2, 1:17*pm, "Ed Huntress" wrote:
"Too_Many_Tools" wrote in message ... On Apr 2, 1:23 pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee- associates.us wrote: On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 13:10:00 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I haven't seen what the Fed has been saying about it lately so I don't know what the official position is. ============= In your opinion, how much credibility does the data from the Fed, BLS, etc. now have? Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). April 2, 2008, 12:51PM EST text size: TT What Bernanke Didn't Say In his first congressional appearance since intervening to prop up Bear Stearns, the Fed chief refused to call it a bailout--nor would he say there's a recession by Peter Coy snip And how is that Business Week article a response to George's question? -- Ed Huntress- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Did you read the article? TMT |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 2, 2:45*pm, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
associates.us wrote: On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 11:50:49 -0700 (PDT), Too_Many_Tools wrote: April 2, 2008, 12:51PM EST text size: TT What Bernanke Didn't Say In his first congressional appearance since intervening to prop up Bear Stearns, the Fed chief refused to call it a bailout--nor would he say there's a recession by Peter Coy Two words are hard to drag out of Ben Bernanke's mouth: recession and bailout. snip In response to a question from the committee chairman, Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), Bernanke said, "A recession is possible. But a recession is a technical term defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research depending on data which will be available quite a while from now, so I'm not yet ready to say whether or not the U.S. economy will face such a situation." Most of the questions concerned the Bear deal, not the economy, which many economists believe has already entered a recession. Several committee members asked, in effect, why the Fed appeared to be bailing out Wall Street but not Main Street. snip ============== IMNSHO, it is the "too big to fail" rationale in action, which in this instance may well have been correct. [B/S had written 10 Trillion dollars of CDSs...] What is not answered, either in Bernanke's response nor Paulson's proposed "overhaul" of the securities regulations [which appears to weaken, not strengthen many of the oversights/controls] is why firms, financial or otherwise, that are "too big to fail" are allowed to exist, or if charterered/domiciled outside US control [e.g. Long Term Capital Management, most other hedge funds, and the "trustees for the CDO/MBOs] are allowed to solicit customers or own assets within the US. The risk "too big to fail" represents (and the gun this hold to the head of the Fed and US government) has been known from at least 1984.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contine...nal_Bank_and_T... Note that this not need be a single entity, but an aggregated economic sector such as the S&Ls, which went "belly up" in the late 80s, showing that nothing had been learned (and acted on) from the Continental Illinois debacle.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolut...st_Corporation The Congressional intermural "grab-ass" matches and ongoing Congress/Administration punch-n-judy show to divert the great unwashed [and generate campaign contributions] continue, even as the Titanic's list increases... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Very good points George. TMT |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 2, 7:14*pm, "John R. Carroll"
wrote: F. George McDuffee wrote: On Wed, 2 Apr 2008 15:56:30 -0400, "Ed Huntress" wrote: I think the answer you would get from most close observers is that the globalized finance industry doesn't give brownie points for well-regulated participants. You're either in the game, internationally, or you're not. You either lead the way, or you follow. The US, including many liberal members of Congress back in the '80s and '90s, decided that they would give the US industry a chance to play at the top tier, and hopefully to dominate, at a time when London, Paris, and (in the '80s) Tokyo were threatening to take that position. That they largely did. -- Ed Huntress =============== This may indeed be the case, but it fails to address the WIIFM [what's in it for me] question from the citizen's/taxpayer's point of view. *Why should I as a taxpayer give a rap if CSFB, Merril Lynch, Bear Stearns, BlackRock, Carlyle, etc. makes a dime, or gets to play with the big boys? This segues into yet more questions/observations: You can review *SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, "His" entire proposal has as much chance of being effective as your cat and dog do of having offspring. This cluster **** looks a lot like the Department of Homeland Security, an ineffective and costly combination of Boondogle and Fiasco that has been so incompetently staffed that instead of a joke, it's a nightmare and a costly one at that. Given the purpose of the Federal Reserve, why would you want to remove their day to day oversight of financial institutions and put this in the hands of a political operative? Nothing, not one single thing, in the proposed reforms adresses any of the underlying problems and in fact, exacerbates them. Sheesh. -- * * * * * *John R. Carroll *www.machiningsolution.com- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I agree with your comments John. TMT |
#36
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 3, 12:34*am, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
associates.us wrote: On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:14:52 GMT, "John R. Carroll" wrote: You can review *SecTreas Paulson's executive summary and proposed changes to the Federal oversight of the financial sector here http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._factsheet.pdf http://media.npr.org/documents/2008/..._blueprint.pdf While I have not yet completely read his entire proposal, "His" entire proposal has as much chance of being effective as your cat and dog do of having offspring. This cluster **** looks a lot like the Department of Homeland Security, an ineffective and costly combination of Boondogle and Fiasco that has been so incompetently staffed that instead of a joke, it's a nightmare and a costly one at that. ============= John: If you read and understood all that "you done good!" I got through the summary (7 pages, several 1/2 filled) and only about the first 75 pages of the actual document [out of 212, most pretty dense with foot notes] What seems to be clear is that the regulatory agencies have been largely captured by the regulated, and the Treasury Department and the Fed have almost no knowledge of what's actually occurring, nor what sort of liabilities exist. *Case in point is the huge [but largely unknown] amount of CDS [credit debt swaps] overhanging the market. Bear Stearns by itself had created 10 trillion $US notational/face value of these. I may have missed it, but I never saw the words felony, fine, prison term, disgorgement, or conspiracy, in this document. More of the same only better, smaller, lighter, cheaper, quicker, yada-yada-yada... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). We have had an Administration who believes that no regulation is best. Food safety, airline safety, drug safety, finance ...all have suffered..there are many more. I may have missed it, but I never saw the words felony, fine, prison term, disgorgement, or conspiracy, in this document. Yeah...I have noticed that those words seem to be missing from the media too. But I hear them frequently from taxpayers on the street. TMT |
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 3, 7:36*am, Larry Jaques wrote:
On Thu, 03 Apr 2008 01:57:00 -0700, with neither quill nor qualm, Gunner quickly quoth: I was at Westec yesterday DAMN, I missed it again. *Whoa, it all fit into Kentia Hall and the two connected buildings? *It was literally stuffed into 6 or 7 buildings when Terry and I went in 2000 or 2001. It shrunk by 70%? http://www.sme.org/cgi-bin/get-event...7-020727--SME- and watched sales of somewhere in the order of $14 million..million dollars worth of machine tools, most to small machine shops They are claiming they are so busy right now, that they need more capacity. If the economy is in the ****ter, who is buying all the parts? With some larger corporate machine shops going out of business or shifting their mfg centers overseas, much of the fallout is to the little guys, ah reckon. There are lots of companies, myself included, who won't outsource offshore, ever. When those large corporations moved, not all their customers were happy. Most of the guys I talked to are NOT doing military stuff Speaking of military, I just finished John Ringo's _Hell's Faire_ and am sure glad you pointed out the Sluggy Freelance cartoon to me when you did. The references in that were absolutely hilarious. *GREAT book! *BunBun did, indeed, ROCK! -- That man is the richest whose pleasures are the cheapest. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *-- Henry David Thoreau If business is so good, why is Westec so small? TMT |
#38
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 3, 3:56*pm, "Hawke" wrote:
"David Courtney" wrote in message . .. * * Our sales were up 15% in '07 over the previous year and the first quarter of this year was just as good. * * We're selling stuff all over the world, and actually getting paid for a change, because the dollar is weak and people can afford to buy our stuff. The imported junk that would normally "compete" only on price... is getting relatively more expensive, and all the bad publicity surrounding Chinese toys, food, and drugs is giving "Buy American" a boost (even if it's not for patriotic reasons). * * The foundries and machine shops that we buy from all have long lead times and all of the hourly people that I know are complaining about too much "mandatory" overtime. * * I'm working on buying my first house... one that's newer and bigger than I could afford a year ago; because some D.I.N.K.s bought more than they could afford during the "boom". * * Food is as cheap as it's ever been in the history of man. An hour of work feeds the four of us for a day or two; which is ridiculous when you stop and think about it. * * The share value of my IRA is down a little since it's November peak; but it's still up 23% since January '07 and 37% since January '06; so somebody there obviously knows which stocks to avoid. *LOL * * Every day I read about this supposed "recession" the media has been hyping and say, "God, please let it last!" * * The liberal news media would like nothing better than to convince everyone that we're in a Republican created recession, going into the elections. *Hopefully the economy will take off again and that plan will backfire on them! What do you mean take off? You just made it sound like the economy is doing great. If you are not a complete fool you know that the economy stinks. Last quarter of '07 it grew .06%. That sucks. The first quarter of '08 is also going to be a stinker. But you think things are going well. Are you just stupid or are you pretending things are going good because you don't want to blame republicans? Or both? Hawke- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Hawke is correct. Denial is a powerful force. TMT |
#39
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Thu, 3 Apr 2008 08:30:08 -0500, "David Courtney"
wrote: snip Food is as cheap as it's ever been in the history of man. An hour of work feeds the four of us for a day or two; which is ridiculous when you stop and think about it. snip ========= I have already posted several links about the big upsurge in food stamp usage and increases in demand on the "community pantries" within the US. You may wish to review http://www.archive.org/download/link...02_1_5Mbps.mp4 which details the problems the speculation in food commodities is causing outside the US. We are stepping on our lolly big time in the geo-political/economic sense as these rapidly increasing food prices are destabilizing not only much of the Mid-East and Africa but also significant parts of Latin America, e.g. Chile. These areas either supply or abut areas that supply the US with not only petroleum, but also other strategic materials such as chrome, nickel, and platinum. While the elite in the actual petroleum producing countries such as Saudi or Dubai may not be affected, the less affluent most definitely are, and telling them to eat cake will not be any better received this time around. If you need a mp4 viewer you can download one for free he http://www.getmiro.com/ With a nod to John Carroll -- we just added a few more inches to the snowpack... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). |
#40
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Recession a Media created myth...
On Apr 4, 12:27*am, F. George McDuffee gmcduf...@mcduffee-
associates.us wrote: On Thu, 3 Apr 2008 08:30:08 -0500, "David wrote: snip * *Food is as cheap as it's ever been in the history of man. An hour of work feeds the four of us for a day or two; which is ridiculous when you stop and think about it. snip ========= I have already posted several links about the big upsurge in food stamp usage and increases in demand on the "community pantries" within the US. You may wish to reviewhttp://www.archive.org/download/linktv_globalpulse20080402/globalpuls... which details the problems the speculation in food commodities is causing outside the US. *We are stepping on our lolly big time in the geo-political/economic sense as these rapidly increasing food prices are destabilizing not only much of the Mid-East and Africa but also significant parts of Latin America, e.g. Chile. *These areas either supply or abut areas that supply the US with not only petroleum, but also other strategic materials such as chrome, nickel, and platinum. *While the elite in the actual petroleum producing countries such as Saudi or Dubai may not be affected, the less affluent most definitely are, and telling them to eat cake will not be any better received this time around. If you need a mp4 viewer you can download one for free hehttp://www.getmiro.com/ With a nod to John Carroll -- we just added a few more inches to the snowpack... Unka' George [George McDuffee] ------------------------------------------- He that will not apply new remedies, must expect new evils: for Time is the greatest innovator: and if Time, of course, alter things to the worse, and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better, what shall be the end? Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman. Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625). I too have seen it personally that the locals are struggling with food prices...and if you ask the employees at Walmart and Target (two national chains) you will find that they will confirm this. I believe the comments of the cashier who has direct interaction with the man on the street over any that a damn politician makes. Here is an article you might want to try reading.... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080404/...m_TpTV9tms0NUE Please note the recommended status of this story located at the bottom of the page....this value is determined by those who read the story...note how high it is. That is strong evidence that life is not good on Main Street. TMT Shoppers scrimp as food prices rise Thu Apr 3, 8:20 PM ET Reuters sent reporters to three Wal-Mart stores this week to discover how badly American consumers are being squeezed by the housing crisis, job losses and rising food prices. They went on March 31 and April 1 to compare traffic before and after payday. Wal-Mart says many of its customers are financially strapped toward the end of a pay period. This is what we discovered: By Nicole Maestri SECAUCUS, New Jersey (Reuters) - Patricia Norris' family is feeling the one-two punch of higher fuel and food prices. Her husband works as messenger, driving around to deliver packages. But the job is not as profitable as it once was because rising fuel prices are eating into his earnings. With money tight and food prices rising, Norris can no longer afford to buy beef and chicken on a regular basis. "We buy meat only for special occasions. Like for Easter, we had a ham," she said after a shopping trip at her local Wal-Mart in Romeoville, a mixed blue- and white-collar suburb of Chicago. Norris must purchase only what is on her shopping list, to avoid spending more than she can afford. "Sometimes I cry," she said, when she passes items on store shelves she can no longer buy. Across the United States, consumers like Norris are finding that grocery shopping has become a sobering experience as their budgets fail to keep pace with food costs. Reuters reporters visited Wal-Mart stores in Romeoville, Illinois, Secaucus, New Jersey and Santa Clarita, California, on the last day of March and the first day of April to find out how shoppers are navigating the food aisles when they have payday cash in their pockets. Already squeezed by high gasoline prices, slumping home values, a weakening job market and the possibility that the U.S. economy is in a recession, consumers have adopted a no-nonsense approach to shopping, passing over a trip to Target (TGT.N) or a local grocery store if they can find lower prices at Wal-Mart (WMT.N). They are buying cheaper store-brand products, avoiding costly cuts of meat, consolidating trips, clipping coupons, constructing well- researched shopping lists and avoiding splurges to spend only the bare minimum. "I don't buy anything I don't have to," Norris said. FOOD PRICES JUMP MOST IN 17 YEARS U.S. consumer food prices normally rise by about 2.5 percent annually, but they increased by 4 percent in 2007 -- the biggest increase in 17 years, according to U.S. Agriculture Department data. Prices continue to rise. A survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation in February showed that in the beginning months of this year, the cost of 16 grocery items, including flour and cheddar cheese, was $45.03, up $3.42, or 8 percent, from the fourth quarter. That has consumers like Laura Miller taking a calculated approach to shopping, much of which she does at Wal-Mart in Santa Clarita, California, a planned community on the outskirts of Los Angeles. Married with three little girls, Miller said her food costs have almost doubled to $300 every two weeks. She plans meals two weeks in advance and shops with the daughter who doesn't ask her to buy snacks. Miller's printed shopping list, organized by item and place of purchase, shows that she does the bulk of her buying at Wal-Mart. "I won't pay $6 for a box of cereal when I can get it for $3" at Wal- Mart, she said. Karen Wikholm, a library worker from Romeoville, is another who does her homework before heading to the store, sorting through newspaper ads, hashing out which stores offer the best deals and figuring out where her coupons can go farthest. She then gets in her car and, in one day, goes to her local Wal-Mart, Dominick's and Jewel grocery stores, buying only what is cheapest in each store. The three stores are located about a mile from each other on a stretch of road that includes several strip malls interspersed with vacant plots for planned housing developments. "We're shopping as the paycheck comes," she said. PAYDAY MEANS GROCERY DAY Increasingly, shoppers like Wikholm must wait until payday to load up on groceries and then hunker down until the next paycheck. At all three Wal-Mart stores, that trend was visible. The Wal-Mart in Secaucus, a few miles outside New York, operated at a leisurely pace on the afternoon of Monday, March 31. Shoppers slowly browsed store aisles or stopped at the in-store McDonald's (MCD.N) for a snack. But the store was bustling with activity at the same time the next day, as shoppers pushed overflowing carts loaded with cereal, soda, juice, frozen food and bread. "There's no question that people are shopping when they have money in their pocket," said Tracy Ferschweiler, the manager of the Secaucus store. Leslie Dach, executive vice president of corporate affairs and government relations at Wal-Mart, said the cycle of shoppers running out of money in between paychecks and then flocking to its stores on payday is "more pronounced, more visible." While many U.S. retailers are facing waning sales as shoppers cut back on purchases of clothes, jewelry or home furnishings, Wal-Mart's vast grocery business and its emphasis on low prices is spurring a resurgence at its U.S. stores and in its stock price. Its stock is up 15 percent this year, while Target, a more upmarket discounter, is up 7 percent, and the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) is down 5 percent. Wal-Mart's February sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 2.6 percent, helped by strength in its grocery business, while Target reported a 0.5 percent gain in its February sales. Annette Reilly was at the Wal-Mart in Secaucus on April 1 to buy cereal for her 2-year-old grandson, who was sitting in her shopping cart. She said she is now buying cereal at the discount retailer because it charges $1 less per box than her local Stop & Shop. "Why not?" she said of making the trip to Wal-Mart. "I can come here and save $5." Saving those extra dollars is becoming more crucial. Mary Ann Doyle, a 75-year-old retired teacher browsing in the dairy aisle at the Wal-Mart in Santa Clarita, said she is now buying food in smaller quantities, like half a dozen eggs instead of a dozen, and using more coupons. "It needs to get better," she said of the economic situation. "I hope we've hit rock bottom." (Writing by Nicole Maestri; Reporting by Nicole Maestri and Fred Katayama in Secaucus, Lisa Baertlein in Santa Clarita, California, and Bradley Dorfman in Romeoville, Illinois; Editing by Martin Howell and Eddie Evans) |
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