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...
On Apr 2, 9:10 am, "Ed Huntress"

That's an aside, however. What I was commenting on was that Lott used
two
different explanations of recession -- one to indicate that the 2001
recession actually started earlier than claimed, and a different one to
indicate we aren't in a recession now. --
Ed Huntress

Looking at the data, we did not have a recession in 2000 or 2001.
Three quarters of negative growth out of five quarters, but no two
negative growth quarters in a row. So maybe more jitter than trend.

What you're running into here is two different definitions of "recession,"
once again. Lott says "as every economist knows" it's two sequential
quarters of declining GDP. I called that the "basic" definition, pointing
out that NBER uses additional criteria -- employment, real income,
industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.

So here Lott is caught in a contradiction. He says "as every economist
knows," but, as you point out, there weren't two sequential quarters of GDP
decline in 2001: http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp# (set the
years to show 2000 and 2001). The recession of 2001 was a recession
according to the *official* definition, which is the NBER's, and which shows
the recession began in March 2001 (apparently revised now to February) and
ended in November 2001. Here's a brief USA today story on the NBER report,
before the revision. They call the two quarters of negative GDP a "thumbnail
definition":

http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...ecession_x.htm

And here's a FAQ from the NBER that describes the whole thing succinctly:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html


But he does have a point in that there is a lot of discussion about
recession now in the media, and we may not have even one quarter of
negative growth this year or next. I suspect it is not so much caused
by a liberal trend by the media.

Where it's coming from is a statement by Martin Feldstein, who heads the
NBER, that we are now in a recession:

http://www.boston.com/business/artic...mist_declares/

When Feldstein speaks, people listen. It isn't "official" until the NBER
declares it so, but Feldstein is one of the oracles of the US economy, and
his word is enough to start a run of newspaper articles and TV reports.


More likely just the media acting as
a herd.

Well, yeah, but they're all reporting what's coming from the NBER and
Feldstein, along with some other authorities.

The economy in Washington State is still doing pretty well.
House prices have quit rising, but have not dropped much.
Unemployment is low and the jobs are more tech than McDonalds.

That's true in a lot of places. The way the economy works now, recessions
are going to vary a lot by region. GDP is becoming a less reliable indicator
of how much people are feeling in general.

--
Ed Huntress