Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the time
the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a heat
pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now available in
the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat pump, or natural
gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro, it's relatively
cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the gas is per cu',
but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough estimate of how
much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based on the electricity
used for this purpose? There are a lot of confounding factors, the relative
efficiency of the 2 units (old heat pump vs new nat'l gas furnace), the fact
that I also use electric to heat water, etc. (can probably find some rough
figure for factoring this out) the relative costs of each type of
replacement (I would add AC to the gas furnace, so I'm guessing the gas/AC
unit would cost more to buy initially than the heat pump, especially if I
have to shell out for the gas line to be run). Coming from the midwest,
electric heat was always seen as significatly more costly than natural gas,
but I don't know if this is still the case just in general, and particularly
if it would be true given this region's relatively low electric rates. Any
helpful comments appreciated.

TIA,

Dan

"Bubba" wrote in message
...

Here. Lets confuse you just a bit more.
Whats wrong with a 95% gas furnace with a heat pump instead of the
usual straight cooling only?
Ive got it and love it. Gives you a bit more ability to play with the
fuel prices. Takes only a Honeywell Vision Pro stat (and outddor temp
sensor) to control it all.
Bubba

Sounds interesting, I'll check it out.

Thanks

Dan

"Dan" wrote in message
. ..
Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the
time the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a
heat pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now
available in the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat
pump, or natural gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro,
it's relatively cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the
gas is per cu', but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough
estimate of how much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based
on the electricity used for this purpose?

Your electric is about half what I pay. You can plug in numbers here to get
a pretty good comparison based on using the same Btu for your house. You
need to know the cost of gas, of course.
http://hearth.com/econtent/index.php...on_calculator/

"Edwin Pawlowski" wrote in message
t...

Your electric is about half what I pay. You can plug in numbers here to
get a pretty good comparison based on using the same Btu for your house.
You need to know the cost of gas, of course.
http://hearth.com/econtent/index.php...on_calculator/

Thanks Ed, that looks ideal!

Dan

On Fri, 7 Dec 2007 17:53:55 -0800, "Dan" wrote:

Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the time
the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a heat
pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now available in
the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat pump, or natural
gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro, it's relatively
cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the gas is per cu',
but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough estimate of how
much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based on the electricity
used for this purpose? There are a lot of confounding factors, the relative
efficiency of the 2 units (old heat pump vs new nat'l gas furnace), the fact
that I also use electric to heat water, etc. (can probably find some rough
figure for factoring this out) the relative costs of each type of
replacement (I would add AC to the gas furnace, so I'm guessing the gas/AC
unit would cost more to buy initially than the heat pump, especially if I
have to shell out for the gas line to be run). Coming from the midwest,
electric heat was always seen as significatly more costly than natural gas,
but I don't know if this is still the case just in general, and particularly
if it would be true given this region's relatively low electric rates. Any
helpful comments appreciated.

TIA,

Dan

Dan, I live in "The Energy City" where they have cheap hydro-power
and a nearby nuclear power plant. We can generate more electricity to
supply all of New York City in one of out buildings, yet heating the
house with natural gas is less expensive than electrically heated. I
have all gas appliances, except for A/C. You might get a better clue
by talking with your neighbors.

Phisherman wrote:

On Fri, 7 Dec 2007 17:53:55 -0800, "Dan" wrote:

Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the time
the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a heat
pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now available in
the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat pump, or natural
gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro, it's relatively
cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the gas is per cu',
but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough estimate of how
much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based on the electricity
used for this purpose? There are a lot of confounding factors, the relative
efficiency of the 2 units (old heat pump vs new nat'l gas furnace), the fact
that I also use electric to heat water, etc. (can probably find some rough
figure for factoring this out) the relative costs of each type of
replacement (I would add AC to the gas furnace, so I'm guessing the gas/AC
unit would cost more to buy initially than the heat pump, especially if I
have to shell out for the gas line to be run). Coming from the midwest,
electric heat was always seen as significatly more costly than natural gas,
but I don't know if this is still the case just in general, and particularly
if it would be true given this region's relatively low electric rates. Any
helpful comments appreciated.

TIA,

Dan

Dan, I live in "The Energy City" where they have cheap hydro-power
and a nearby nuclear power plant. We can generate more electricity to
supply all of New York City in one of out buildings, yet heating the
house with natural gas is less expensive than electrically heated. I
have all gas appliances, except for A/C. You might get a better clue
by talking with your neighbors.

Are you comparing electric-resistive heating, or the current generation
of electric powered ground source (geothermal) heat pumps? There is a
very large efficiency difference between them.

On Dec 8, 9:22 am, "Pete C." wrote:
Phisherman wrote:

On Fri, 7 Dec 2007 17:53:55 -0800, "Dan" wrote:

Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the time
the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a heat
pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now available in
the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat pump, or natural
gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro, it's relatively
cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the gas is per cu',
but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough estimate of how
much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based on the electricity
used for this purpose? There are a lot of confounding factors, the relative
efficiency of the 2 units (old heat pump vs new nat'l gas furnace), the fact
that I also use electric to heat water, etc. (can probably find some rough
figure for factoring this out) the relative costs of each type of
replacement (I would add AC to the gas furnace, so I'm guessing the gas/AC
unit would cost more to buy initially than the heat pump, especially if I
have to shell out for the gas line to be run). Coming from the midwest,
electric heat was always seen as significatly more costly than natural gas,
but I don't know if this is still the case just in general, and particularly
if it would be true given this region's relatively low electric rates. Any
helpful comments appreciated.

TIA,

Dan

Dan, I live in "The Energy City" where they have cheap hydro-power
and a nearby nuclear power plant. We can generate more electricity to
supply all of New York City in one of out buildings, yet heating the
house with natural gas is less expensive than electrically heated. I
have all gas appliances, except for A/C. You might get a better clue
by talking with your neighbors.

Are you comparing electric-resistive heating, or the current generation
of electric powered ground source (geothermal) heat pumps? There is a
very large efficiency difference between them.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Agree. There is confusion of terms from the beginning of this
thread. The term "electric heat" is usually used to refer to systems
using resistance heating elements. Heat pump is a system that uses a
compressor powered by electricity. And another factor is heat pumps
can then use either air or geothermal to exchange the heat. Heat
pumps systems usually have a backup heat source, usually electric to
be used at lower temps. There is a world of difference in terms of
operating costs between resistance heat and a heat pump. Just about
everywhere, nat gas is going to be cheaper than electric resistance
heating to operate. But a heat pump system could be a good
alternative, depending on the climate and fuel costs.

wrote in message
...
Agree. There is confusion of terms from the beginning of this
thread. The term "electric heat" is usually used to refer to systems
using resistance heating elements. Heat pump is a system that uses a
compressor powered by electricity. And another factor is heat pumps
can then use either air or geothermal to exchange the heat. Heat
pumps systems usually have a backup heat source, usually electric to
be used at lower temps. There is a world of difference in terms of
operating costs between resistance heat and a heat pump. Just about
everywhere, nat gas is going to be cheaper than electric resistance
heating to operate. But a heat pump system could be a good
alternative, depending on the climate and fuel costs.


I don't know what confusion you're referring to, when I started this thread
I clearly stated I now have & am considering a heat pump for replacement.
Like most heat pumps, my current system has resistive backup heat for when
it's really cold, but such low temps are pretty rare around here. I'm
aware of geothermal heat pumps, though I have not researched them in depth.
Our lot is a little over 1 acre, but about 80% of that is heavily forested
and on fairly rough terrain. Obviously, the installation costs of such a
system, whether the horizontal or vertical variety, would be significantly
higher than simply plopping another box on the ground. Either way, I may
not be living here more than about 5 years, so recouping higher installation
costs over time, even for just a top of the line "high efficiency" gas or
air-source heat pump, let alone a geo, is probably not going to happen.

Another factor is the potential price stability of the 2 energy sources. No
one has a crystal ball, but it seems logical to expect the price of
hydro-sourced electricity to be more stable over time than natural gas.

Thanks all for the replies.

Dan

"Joseph Meehan" wrote in message
...
I would suggest checking with a well recommended HVAC contractor in
your area. I say this because your area is different than most of the US
and Canada. The choice of equipment should be one made with a good
professional knowledgeable of local conditions, construction and cost.

Thanks Joe, I agree a "good knowledgeable professional" is key.
Unfortunately, finding one, even with recommendations (I have a couple
though I haven't contacted anyone yet), can be a very dicey proposition.

Dan

On Dec 8, 2:15 pm, "Dan" wrote:
wrote in message

...

Agree. There is confusion of terms from the beginning of this
thread. The term "electric heat" is usually used to refer to systems
using resistance heating elements. Heat pump is a system that uses a
compressor powered by electricity. And another factor is heat pumps
can then use either air or geothermal to exchange the heat. Heat
pumps systems usually have a backup heat source, usually electric to
be used at lower temps. There is a world of difference in terms of
operating costs between resistance heat and a heat pump. Just about
everywhere, nat gas is going to be cheaper than electric resistance
heating to operate. But a heat pump system could be a good
alternative, depending on the climate and fuel costs.

I don't know what confusion you're referring to, when I started this thread
I clearly stated I now have & am considering a heat pump for replacement.

The title of you post was "How to compare electric heat vs natural gas
heat". That's confusing, because what you're talking about is a heat
pump, not resistance electric heat. Phisherman responded with a
post saying where he lives, even with low electricity costs, electric
heat is more expensive. I think what he means is electric resistance
heat, not an electrically drive heap pump, is more expensive. But
there is no way of knowing when you misuse the commonly acceptedus
terms.



Like most heat pumps, my current system has resistive backup heat for when
it's really cold, but such low temps are pretty rare around here. I'm
aware of geothermal heat pumps, though I have not researched them in depth.
Our lot is a little over 1 acre, but about 80% of that is heavily forested
and on fairly rough terrain. Obviously, the installation costs of such a
system, whether the horizontal or vertical variety, would be significantly
higher than simply plopping another box on the ground. Either way, I may
not be living here more than about 5 years, so recouping higher installation
costs over time, even for just a top of the line "high efficiency" gas or
air-source heat pump, let alone a geo, is probably not going to happen.

Another factor is the potential price stability of the 2 energy sources. No
one has a crystal ball, but it seems logical to expect the price of
hydro-sourced electricity to be more stable over time than natural gas.

Thanks all for the replies.

Dan

wrote in message
...
On Dec 8, 2:15 pm, "Dan" wrote:
wrote in message

...

The title of you post was "How to compare electric heat vs natural gas
heat". That's confusing, because what you're talking about is a heat
pump, not resistance electric heat...

You've got to be kidding me...

"Bubba" wrote in message
...
Dan,
Nope! He aint kiddin. Trader4 is an EE. That classifies him as a grade
A #1 pencil pushing geek pain in the ass. Self proclaimed know-it-all
on everything. In reality, he's pretty clueless about most everything.
Just let him live in his "own little world", ignore him and everything
will be all right. :-)
Bubba

Thanks Bubba, I'll keep that in mind ;-)
Dan

On Dec 8, 3:35 pm, "Dan" wrote:
wrote in message

...

On Dec 8, 2:15 pm, "Dan" wrote:
wrote in message

...

The title of you post was "How to compare electric heat vs natural gas
heat". That's confusing, because what you're talking about is a heat
pump, not resistance electric heat...

You've got to be kidding me...


No, I'm not kidding you, only trying to point out that the answers
you're getting may in some cases be wrong because people may have been
mislead by the title of your post. If you want to get responses
that are answering a question that was different than what you
intended, that's up to you. For example, are you sure Phisherman
understood you meant a heat pump when you titled your post "How to
compare electric heat vs nautral gas heat?" I'd put odds on that he
was thinking electric resistance heating because that's what the term
"electric heat" usually means and I think that's what his answer was
based on. Pete C picked up on that too, when he questioned whether
Phisherman really meant electric resistance heat or a heat pump
system. I was only trying to point out that the thread may have
gone a bit astray because of confusion and that maybe his response was
not what he really meant.

Here for reference is the definition of an electric heater:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_heater


An electric heater is an electrical appliance that converts electrical
energy into heat. The heating element inside every electric heater is
simply an electrical resistor, and works on the principle of Joule
heating: an electric current flowing through a resistor converts
electrical energy into heat energy.


Sorry that my attempt to straighten out some possible confusion, which
is pretty much what Pete C did too, got you so bothered that you've
followed Bubba, the village idiot, and turned it into a personal
attack.

wrote in message
...

No, I'm not kidding you, only trying to point out that the answers
you're getting may in some cases be wrong because people may have been
mislead by the title of your post.

That I was referring to an existing and possible replacement HEAT PUMP was
made abundantly clear in the beginning of the post. I'm afraid your
exacting editorial standards exceed the rigors of the medium. It's a
newsgroup, not a journal article.

Lighten up, you'll live longer.

In any case, I'm not going to go back and forth about this all weekend, so
go ahead and have the last word.

Dan

Dan wrote:

wrote in message
...
Agree. There is confusion of terms from the beginning of this
thread. The term "electric heat" is usually used to refer to systems
using resistance heating elements. Heat pump is a system that uses a
compressor powered by electricity. And another factor is heat pumps
can then use either air or geothermal to exchange the heat. Heat
pumps systems usually have a backup heat source, usually electric to
be used at lower temps. There is a world of difference in terms of
operating costs between resistance heat and a heat pump. Just about
everywhere, nat gas is going to be cheaper than electric resistance
heating to operate. But a heat pump system could be a good
alternative, depending on the climate and fuel costs.


I don't know what confusion you're referring to, when I started this thread
I clearly stated I now have & am considering a heat pump for replacement.
Like most heat pumps, my current system has resistive backup heat for when
it's really cold, but such low temps are pretty rare around here. I'm
aware of geothermal heat pumps, though I have not researched them in depth.
Our lot is a little over 1 acre, but about 80% of that is heavily forested
and on fairly rough terrain. Obviously, the installation costs of such a
system, whether the horizontal or vertical variety, would be significantly
higher than simply plopping another box on the ground. Either way, I may
not be living here more than about 5 years, so recouping higher installation
costs over time, even for just a top of the line "high efficiency" gas or
air-source heat pump, let alone a geo, is probably not going to happen.

Another factor is the potential price stability of the 2 energy sources. No
one has a crystal ball, but it seems logical to expect the price of
hydro-sourced electricity to be more stable over time than natural gas.

Thanks all for the replies.

Dan

For a geothermal heat pump, trenched vertical coil installation is the
easiest and cheapest and is as efficient as other installation types in
most situations. Basically you cut a trench with a big ditch witch and
then stretch a coil of tubing like a flattened slinky, put it in the
trench and back fill with some suitable material. Fast and easy and
minimal impact to the area.

On Dec 8, 11:36 pm, "Dan" wrote:
wrote in message

...

No, I'm not kidding you, only trying to point out that the answers
you're getting may in some cases be wrong because people may have been
mislead by the title of your post.

That I was referring to an existing and possible replacement HEAT PUMP was
made abundantly clear in the beginning of the post. I'm afraid your
exacting editorial standards exceed the rigors of the medium. It's a
newsgroup, not a journal article.


It's not a case of exacting editorial standards. You apparently
think everyone replying to some part of this thread, must have entered
the thread at the very beginning and read your entire post. It's
very possible they saw the title "How to compare electric vs natural
gas heating costs and only read some of the later posts from people
trying to reply with advice, where I think it became unclear if the
discussion was now about heat pumps, as you intended, or if some
replies were about electric resistance heating. Again, I refer you
back to the point where there was a response that looked like they may
have been talking about resistance heating, not heat pumps. Pete C
pointed this response out too. All I did is point out how people
might have gone astray because of the wording of the title.
But apparently you're so sensitive you'd rather have incorrect answers
from a thread going astray rather than have someone point out the
possible reason for the confusion and get the thread back on track so
you can get valid answers.

If you want more answers regarding heat pumps vs natural gas, try
googling for it in this newsgroup. There have been many discussion
threads which you will find.


Lighten up, you'll live longer.

In any case, I'm not going to go back and forth about this all weekend, so
go ahead and have the last word.

..



Dan

"Pete C." wrote in message
...
For a geothermal heat pump, trenched vertical coil installation is the
easiest and cheapest and is as efficient as other installation types in
most situations. Basically you cut a trench with a big ditch witch and
then stretch a coil of tubing like a flattened slinky, put it in the
trench and back fill with some suitable material. Fast and easy and
minimal impact to the area.

I'll definately look into the geo when I get estimates. Since our plan is
to live here about 5 years or so, upfront costs are an issue, but it's
certainly worth a look.

Thanks for the reply.

Dan

"Bubba" wrote in message
...
I told you Dan, the guy (trader4.....) is a freaking idiot. Make sure
you dot your I's and puncuate correctly. Otherwise he will find
something else to nitpick. An EE with an adgenda. What a miserable
life he must lead.
Bubba

I didn't read his last post. Why bother. Been doing NG's a long time. You
can always tell the ones who'd rather argue than discuss, and who live for
the "last word". Sad, really.

Dan

On Dec 9, 3:25 pm, "Dan" wrote:
"Bubba" wrote in message

...

I told you Dan, the guy (trader4.....) is a freaking idiot. Make sure
you dot your I's and puncuate correctly. Otherwise he will find
something else to nitpick. An EE with an adgenda. What a miserable
life he must lead.
Bubba

I didn't read his last post. Why bother. Been doing NG's a long time. You
can always tell the ones who'd rather argue than discuss, and who live for
the "last word". Sad, really.

Dan

I noticed you yourself still feel compelled to have the last word
though. And that's after saying you were done with this a couple
posts ago.

As for arguing vs discussing, again, all I did was point out that some
of the responses may be from folks who were confused by your choice of
terminology in the post title. It seems Pete C also thought Phisherman
may have been talking about resistance electric heat when he gave his
reply Hmmm, could it be because he came in on the middle of the
thread, saw your post titled "How to compare electric vs natural gas
heating cost" read some replies and perhaps never read the body of
your post? I was polite and only tried to maybe get the track back
on thread. You, in turn attacked me, personally.

So, here's a thought. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure
out the advantages of a heat pump vs natural gas. You could just
search this group. It's been asked, discussed and answered dozens of
time. A simple google search will also uncover plenty of websites
where it's discussed. And while you're there, sensitive genius that
you are, maybe you'll learn that people don't refer to heat pumps as
electric heating.

Hi Dan,

A standard billing measure for natural gas sold in the U.S. is a
"therm". One therm contains 100,000 BTUs. Alternatively, it is
sometimes sold in 100 cubic foot increments (CCF). Assuming a gas
furnace with an AFUE rating of 92 per cent, your net heat gain in
either case is about 27 kWh.

Natural gas prices can fluctuate widely from one year to the next, but
according the DOE, the average retail price for natural gas sold in
Washington state in 2006 was $1.34 per CCF. Again, assuming an AFUE
of 92 per cent, that puts the equivalent cost per kWh in the range of
$0.05. As of September 2007 (the latest month for which data is
available), it is $1.63 per CCF or $0.06 per kWh(e).

The current minimum HSPF or "heating season performance factor" for
air-source heat pumps is 7.7; like AFUE ratings, higher numbers are
better. A good quality heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 will provide, on
average, 2.5 kWh of heat for every kWh of electricity consumed. If
you currently pay $0.08 per kWh, your effective cost per kWh of heat
falls closer to $0.03. On that basis, the operating costs of a high
efficiency natural gas furnace are 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than that
of our reference heat pump.

If my memory is correct, domestic natural gas production peaked in
1973 and the U.S. has been relying on natural gas imports from Canada
and Mexico to make up for the slack (and to a growing extent, LNG
imports from overseas). Canada's natural gas production has also
peaked and so I expect natural gas prices to trend upward going
forward (a succession of relatively mild winters and the loss of major
industrial consumers has helped to temporarily dampened prices, but
this won't last forever). Over the long haul, a heat pump would
likely outperform natural gas by a wide margin.

Hope this information is helpful.

Cheers,
Paul


"Dan" wrote in message
...
Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the
time the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a
heat pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now
available in the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat
pump, or natural gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro,
it's relatively cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the
gas is per cu', but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough
estimate of how much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based
on the electricity used for this purpose? There are a lot of confounding
factors, the relative efficiency of the 2 units (old heat pump vs new
nat'l gas furnace), the fact that I also use electric to heat water, etc.
(can probably find some rough figure for factoring this out) the relative
costs of each type of replacement (I would add AC to the gas furnace, so
I'm guessing the gas/AC unit would cost more to buy initially than the
heat pump, especially if I have to shell out for the gas line to be run).
Coming from the midwest, electric heat was always seen as significatly
more costly than natural gas, but I don't know if this is still the case
just in general, and particularly if it would be true given this region's
relatively low electric rates. Any helpful comments appreciated.

TIA,

Dan

Hi Dan,

A short addendum. To provide you with a better sense of the long term
trend for natural gas prices, the following table shows the average
retail cost per CCF in Washington state:

1997 - $0.564
1998 - $0.584
1999 - $0.588
2000 - $0.716
2001 - $0.979
2002 - $0.933
2003 - $0.843
2004 - $0.991
2005 - $ 1.180
2006 - $1.336

Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010wa3A.htm

N..B.: The source table shows the cost per 1,000 cubic feet, but I've
adjusted this to CCF, which is more appropriate for retail consumers.

From this, we see that the cost of natural gas heat is 2.4 times
higher than ten years ago. Interesting to note that in 1996, the
average retail cost of electricity in your state was $0.0503 per kWh
and as of 2006, it had increased to $0.0614 -- a 22 per cent increase
over an eleven year span (i.e., an increase that falls below the rate
of inflation).

Cheers,
Paul

On Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:29:27 -0400, Paul M. Eldridge
wrote:

Hi Dan,

A standard billing measure for natural gas sold in the U.S. is a
"therm". One therm contains 100,000 BTUs. Alternatively, it is
sometimes sold in 100 cubic foot increments (CCF). Assuming a gas
furnace with an AFUE rating of 92 per cent, your net heat gain in
either case is about 27 kWh.

Natural gas prices can fluctuate widely from one year to the next, but
according the DOE, the average retail price for natural gas sold in
Washington state in 2006 was $1.34 per CCF. Again, assuming an AFUE
of 92 per cent, that puts the equivalent cost per kWh in the range of
$0.05. As of September 2007 (the latest month for which data is
available), it is $1.63 per CCF or $0.06 per kWh(e).

The current minimum HSPF or "heating season performance factor" for
air-source heat pumps is 7.7; like AFUE ratings, higher numbers are
better. A good quality heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 will provide, on
average, 2.5 kWh of heat for every kWh of electricity consumed. If
you currently pay $0.08 per kWh, your effective cost per kWh of heat
falls closer to $0.03. On that basis, the operating costs of a high
efficiency natural gas furnace are 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than that
of our reference heat pump.

If my memory is correct, domestic natural gas production peaked in
1973 and the U.S. has been relying on natural gas imports from Canada
and Mexico to make up for the slack (and to a growing extent, LNG
imports from overseas). Canada's natural gas production has also
peaked and so I expect natural gas prices to trend upward going
forward (a succession of relatively mild winters and the loss of major
industrial consumers has helped to temporarily dampened prices, but
this won't last forever). Over the long haul, a heat pump would
likely outperform natural gas by a wide margin.

Hope this information is helpful.

Cheers,
Paul

On Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:29:27 -0400, Paul M. Eldridge
wrote:

Hi Dan,

A standard billing measure for natural gas sold in the U.S. is a
"therm". One therm contains 100,000 BTUs. Alternatively, it is
sometimes sold in 100 cubic foot increments (CCF). Assuming a gas
furnace with an AFUE rating of 92 per cent, your net heat gain in
either case is about 27 kWh.

Natural gas prices can fluctuate widely from one year to the next, but
according the DOE, the average retail price for natural gas sold in
Washington state in 2006 was $1.34 per CCF. Again, assuming an AFUE
of 92 per cent, that puts the equivalent cost per kWh in the range of
$0.05. As of September 2007 (the latest month for which data is
available), it is $1.63 per CCF or $0.06 per kWh(e).

The current minimum HSPF or "heating season performance factor" for
air-source heat pumps is 7.7; like AFUE ratings, higher numbers are
better. A good quality heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 will provide, on
average, 2.5 kWh of heat for every kWh of electricity consumed. If
you currently pay $0.08 per kWh, your effective cost per kWh of heat
falls closer to $0.03. On that basis, the operating costs of a high
efficiency natural gas furnace are 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than that
of our reference heat pump.

If my memory is correct, domestic natural gas production peaked in
1973 and the U.S. has been relying on natural gas imports from Canada
and Mexico to make up for the slack (and to a growing extent, LNG
imports from overseas). Canada's natural gas production has also
peaked and so I expect natural gas prices to trend upward going
forward (a succession of relatively mild winters and the loss of major
industrial consumers has helped to temporarily dampened prices, but
this won't last forever). Over the long haul, a heat pump would
likely outperform natural gas by a wide margin.

Hope this information is helpful.

Cheers,
Paul



In the past, a heat pump was not viable for regions with severe
winters such as New England. Has this changed? In what temperature
range will heat pumps perform adequately? I'm looking for alternatives
myself. Thanks...


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As you might guess, heat pumps won't perform nearly as well in New
England as they will in Washington state given the colder climate and
significantly higher electricity costs. Boston's heating degree-days
number 6,371 whereas Seattle clocks in at 4,624 (higher numbers =
colder climate). In addition, NStar's residential customers pay
$0.174 per kWh or about three times that of their Washington state
counterparts.

That said, heat pumps still could be a good choice for homeowners
without access to natural gas. Heating oil is currently selling for
about $3.20 a gallon. One gallon of heating oil provides 139,000 BTUs
and assuming an AFUE of 82 per cent, you net about 33.4 kWhs of heat
per gallon -- the cost per kWh, in this case, is about $0.096.

At $0.174 per kWh, a heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 is going to provide
heat at a cost of just under $0.07 per kWh. That makes oil heat about
one-third more expensive than our heat pump.

Where natural gas is available and where air conditioning is also
desired, I would be inclined to go with a duel fuel arrangement where
both fuels can be utilized to maximum benefit.

Cheers,
Paul

On Fri, 14 Dec 2007 13:19:44 -0500, lanman wrote:

In the past, a heat pump was not viable for regions with severe
winters such as New England. Has this changed? In what temperature
range will heat pumps perform adequately? I'm looking for alternatives
myself. Thanks...

"Paul M. Eldridge" wrote in message
...
Hi Dan,

A standard billing measure for natural gas sold in the U.S. is a
"therm"...

Paul-Thank you so much for the very informative replies! Extremely helpful,
and I appreciate the time they took to put together.

Dan

On Sat, 15 Dec 2007 01:40:57 -0800, "Dan" wrote:

Paul-Thank you so much for the very informative replies! Extremely helpful,
and I appreciate the time they took to put together.

Dan

You're most welcome. For a personal perspective on this, I live in
Halifax, Nova Scotia and my home is a forty year old, 2,500 sq. ft.
Cape Cod; over the past five years of ownership, it has been
extensively upgraded in terms of its thermal efficiency. My primary
heating system is an oil-fired hot water boiler (Slant/Fin), mated
with a Superstor Ultra indirect hot water tank and a Tekmar control
system.

In August 2005, as part of my efforts to minimize my fuel oil
consumption, I installed a small, 14,000 BTU/hr ductless heat pump
(7.2 HSPF). In the year prior to its installation, I used 1,973
litres of fuel oil (525 gallons) and, of this, I estimate 1,400 litres
can be allocated to space heating purposes -- the balance for domestic
hot water production.

In the following year, my fuel oil use fell to 827 litres, which
suggests my backup boiler demand is now in the order of 250 litres or
65 gallons/year. My total electrical consumption this past year,
including heat pump, is 10,300 kWh.

As I type this, the temperature here in Halifax is currently -16C
(3F).

Best regards,
Paul

On Dec 14 2007, 1:19 pm, lanman wrote:
On Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:29:27 -0400, Paul M. Eldridge



wrote:
Hi Dan,

A standard billing measure for natural gas sold in the U.S. is a
"therm". One therm contains 100,000 BTUs. Alternatively, it is
sometimes sold in 100 cubic foot increments (CCF). Assuming a gas
furnace with an AFUE rating of 92 per cent, your net heat gain in
either case is about 27 kWh.

Natural gas prices can fluctuate widely from one year to the next, but
according the DOE, the average retail price for natural gas sold in
Washington state in 2006 was $1.34 per CCF. Again, assuming an AFUE
of 92 per cent, that puts the equivalent cost per kWh in the range of
$0.05. As of September 2007 (the latest month for which data is
available), it is $1.63 per CCF or $0.06 per kWh(e).

The current minimum HSPF or "heatingseason performance factor" for
air-source heat pumps is 7.7; like AFUE ratings, higher numbers are
better. A good quality heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 will provide, on
average, 2.5 kWh of heat for every kWh of electricity consumed. If
you currently pay $0.08 per kWh, your effective cost per kWh of heat
falls closer to $0.03. On that basis, the operating costs of a high
efficiency natural gas furnace are 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than that
of our reference heat pump.

If my memory is correct, domestic natural gas production peaked in
1973 and the U.S. has been relying on natural gas imports from Canada
and Mexico to make up for the slack (and to a growing extent, LNG
imports from overseas). Canada's natural gas production has also
peaked and so I expect natural gas prices to trend upward going
forward (a succession of relatively mild winters and the loss of major
industrial consumers has helped to temporarily dampened prices, but
this won't last forever). Over the long haul, a heat pump would
likely outperform natural gas by a wide margin.

Hope this information is helpful.

Cheers,
Paul

In the past, a heat pump was not viable for regions with severe
winters such as New England. Has this changed? In what temperature
range will heat pumps perform adequately? I'm looking for alternatives
myself. Thanks...

---- Posted via Pronews.com - Premium Corporate Usenet News Provider ----http://www.pronews.comoffers corporate packages that have access to 100,000+ newsgroups

Hallowell Heat Pump www.gotohallowell.com

wrote in message
...
On Dec 14 2007, 1:19 pm, lanman wrote:
On Fri, 14 Dec 2007 10:29:27 -0400, Paul M. Eldridge



wrote:
Hi Dan,

A standard billing measure for natural gas sold in the U.S. is a
"therm". One therm contains 100,000 BTUs. Alternatively, it is
sometimes sold in 100 cubic foot increments (CCF). Assuming a gas
furnace with an AFUE rating of 92 per cent, your net heat gain in
either case is about 27 kWh.

Natural gas prices can fluctuate widely from one year to the next, but
according the DOE, the average retail price for natural gas sold in
Washington state in 2006 was $1.34 per CCF. Again, assuming an AFUE
of 92 per cent, that puts the equivalent cost per kWh in the range of
$0.05. As of September 2007 (the latest month for which data is
available), it is $1.63 per CCF or $0.06 per kWh(e).

The current minimum HSPF or "heatingseason performance factor" for
air-source heat pumps is 7.7; like AFUE ratings, higher numbers are
better. A good quality heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 will provide, on
average, 2.5 kWh of heat for every kWh of electricity consumed. If
you currently pay $0.08 per kWh, your effective cost per kWh of heat
falls closer to $0.03. On that basis, the operating costs of a high
efficiency natural gas furnace are 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than that
of our reference heat pump.

If my memory is correct, domestic natural gas production peaked in
1973 and the U.S. has been relying on natural gas imports from Canada
and Mexico to make up for the slack (and to a growing extent, LNG
imports from overseas). Canada's natural gas production has also
peaked and so I expect natural gas prices to trend upward going
forward (a succession of relatively mild winters and the loss of major
industrial consumers has helped to temporarily dampened prices, but
this won't last forever). Over the long haul, a heat pump would
likely outperform natural gas by a wide margin.

Hope this information is helpful.

Cheers,
Paul

In the past, a heat pump was not viable for regions with severe
winters such as New England. Has this changed? In what temperature
range will heat pumps perform adequately? I'm looking for alternatives
myself. Thanks...

---- Posted via Pronews.com - Premium Corporate Usenet News
Provider ----http://www.pronews.comoffers corporate packages that have
access to 100,000+ newsgroups

Hallowell Heat Pump www.gotohallowell.com

The heat pump is important; but the real key to low-cost, efficient heat
transfer in cold climates is the source of heat. Air is not a good heat
source in cold climates; but the ground or water might be. Here in northern
Ohio, we see more ground source (geothermal) heat pumps. What seems to
have changed is how the heat transfer coils are installed in the ground.
Instead of trenches, vertical shafts are drilled. These can go through rock
layers and require less land area.. Sometimes water is used if the water
table is high. Ground temperatues of 45-50F are the heat source during
winter and the heat sink during hot weather. See:
http://energymatch.com/features/arti...p?articleid=46 or
http://www.gcbl.org/node/2233/398#comment-398

Dan wrote:
Recently bought a house in the Seattle area, built about 1980. At the time
the house was built, there was no gas in the area. The house has a heat
pump, which is nearing the end of its life. Natural gas is now available in
the area. I'm wondering if I should go with another heat pump, or natural
gas. Since about 80% of the electricity here is hydro, it's relatively
cheap, about $.08/KWH. I don't know what the price of the gas is per cu',
but I could find out. Is there a way I could get a rough estimate of how
much natural gas I would consume to heat the house, based on the electricity
used for this purpose? There are a lot of confounding factors, the relative
efficiency of the 2 units (old heat pump vs new nat'l gas furnace), the fact
that I also use electric to heat water, etc. (can probably find some rough
figure for factoring this out) the relative costs of each type of
replacement (I would add AC to the gas furnace, so I'm guessing the gas/AC
unit would cost more to buy initially than the heat pump, especially if I
have to shell out for the gas line to be run). Coming from the midwest,
electric heat was always seen as significatly more costly than natural gas,
but I don't know if this is still the case just in general, and particularly
if it would be true given this region's relatively low electric rates. Any
helpful comments appreciated.

TIA,

Dan



What altitude are you at? Microclimates in "the Seattle area" vary
widely and wildly.
Go up 3,000 feet and you have a whole different set of heat needs than
if you are on
Puget Sound.

What is the back up heat source for your heat pump? Resistance electric?
What is your power ompany, Seattle City Power and Light, or Tacoma
Power, with preference access to BPA hydro, or a private utility like
Avista with no current access to BPA hydro?

What will the effect be two years from now of the 9th Circuit ruling
last August re
BPA preference power and the legislation pending in the US Senate to
overturn
that ruling, and let the investor owned uilities have some of the BPA hydro?

What will the gas co charge you for an install from the mains in the
street into
your basement?

Are you going to convert from electric to gas stove? (I would, I hate
electric stoves).
Willyou get a discount on the gas pipe install if you switch the stove
and the domestic
ot water heater while you add gas heat?

What do manual D (?), manual M (?) manual J (?) calculations tell you about
the heating / cooling needs for your house. How well insulated is it?
What kind of windows do you have?

You need answers to all these quesions before you can make a knowledgable
"guesstimate" on the efficacy of electric heat pump vs. gas.

Gut rule of thumb here in Portland, Oregon, where we are generally
without the benefit
of heap BPA hydro is that gas in a 90% or 95% efficient furnace is
cheaper, by a long margin, than an electric ea pump with supplmental
resistance heat. And furnaces tend to have a much longer
operating life than a heat pump. Espeially a heat pump who's compressor
is used for AC as well as heat

And why do you need AC in the Seattle area?

How old is that heat pump you are considering replacing?

On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:51:41 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:

[...]
Gut rule of thumb here in Portland, Oregon, where we are generally
without the benefit of heap BPA hydro is that gas in a 90% or 95%
efficient furnace is cheaper, by a long margin, than an electric ea pump with supplmental
resistance heat....

Hi Jim,

It might be helpful if we take a closer look at the numbers. The
trailing block rate for residential customers who opt for PGE's
standard domestic service pay $0.09246 per kWh ($0.07471 per kWh for
the first 250 kWh/month), so a heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 (Zone IV)
would provide heat at an effective cost of just 3.7 cents per kWh(e).

For those not be familiar with the term, HSPF or Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor is defined as "the total space heating required
during the space heating season, expressed in Btu’s, divided by the
total electrical energy consumed by the heat pump system during the
same season, expressed in watt-hours."

Source: ARI Standard 210/240-2006

It's important to note that this seasonal average cost of 3.7 cents
per kWh includes the cost of supplemental or backup electric
resistance heat -- the HSPF rating incorporates this additional backup
heat into the final numbers.

In terms of natural gas, according to the DOE, Oregon residents paid
an average of a $1.43 per therm in 2006 (the average cost as of
October 2007 was $1.56). Assuming an AFUE of 90 per cent, that puts
the current cost of gas heat at 5.9 cents per kWh(e). That being the
case, the operating costs of a high efficiency natural gas furnace are
1.6 times higher than our reference heat pump.

Cheers,
Paul

Paul M. Eldridge wrote:
On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:51:41 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:


[...]
Gut rule of thumb here in Portland, Oregon, where we are generally
without the benefit of heap BPA hydro is that gas in a 90% or 95%
efficient furnace is cheaper, by a long margin, than an electric ea pump with supplmental
resistance heat....


Hi Jim,

It might be helpful if we take a closer look at the numbers. The
trailing block rate for residential customers who opt for PGE's
standard domestic service pay $0.09246 per kWh ($0.07471 per kWh for
the first 250 kWh/month), so a heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 (Zone IV)
would provide heat at an effective cost of just 3.7 cents per kWh(e).

For those not be familiar with the term, HSPF or Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor is defined as "the total space heating required
during the space heating season, expressed in Btu’s, divided by the
total electrical energy consumed by the heat pump system during the
same season, expressed in watt-hours."

Source: ARI Standard 210/240-2006

It's important to note that this seasonal average cost of 3.7 cents
per kWh includes the cost of supplemental or backup electric
resistance heat -- the HSPF rating incorporates this additional backup
heat into the final numbers.

In terms of natural gas, according to the DOE, Oregon residents paid
an average of a $1.43 per therm in 2006 (the average cost as of
October 2007 was $1.56).

That average cost as of October, 2007, does NOT repeat NOT take into
account the NWNG petiion o Oregon PUC to REDUCE (yes, reduce) the gas
rates in the NWNG service area as of 1 Decmber 2007.



Assuming an AFUE of 90 per cent, that puts
the current cost of gas heat at 5.9 cents per kWh(e). That being the
case, the operating costs of a high efficiency natural gas furnace are
1.6 times higher than our reference heat pump.

Cheers,
Paul

On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:20:17 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:

Paul M. Eldridge wrote:
On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:51:41 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:


[...]
Gut rule of thumb here in Portland, Oregon, where we are generally
without the benefit of heap BPA hydro is that gas in a 90% or 95%
efficient furnace is cheaper, by a long margin, than an electric ea pump with supplmental
resistance heat....


Hi Jim,

It might be helpful if we take a closer look at the numbers. The
trailing block rate for residential customers who opt for PGE's
standard domestic service pay $0.09246 per kWh ($0.07471 per kWh for
the first 250 kWh/month), so a heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 (Zone IV)
would provide heat at an effective cost of just 3.7 cents per kWh(e).

For those not be familiar with the term, HSPF or Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor is defined as "the total space heating required
during the space heating season, expressed in Btu’s, divided by the
total electrical energy consumed by the heat pump system during the
same season, expressed in watt-hours."

Source: ARI Standard 210/240-2006

It's important to note that this seasonal average cost of 3.7 cents
per kWh includes the cost of supplemental or backup electric
resistance heat -- the HSPF rating incorporates this additional backup
heat into the final numbers.

In terms of natural gas, according to the DOE, Oregon residents paid
an average of a $1.43 per therm in 2006 (the average cost as of
October 2007 was $1.56).

That average cost as of October, 2007, does NOT repeat NOT take into
account the NWNG petiion o Oregon PUC to REDUCE (yes, reduce) the gas
rates in the NWNG service area as of 1 Decmber 2007.


Hi Jim,

You indicate rates were reduced December 1st, but you didn't say by
how much. If you can kindly provide me with the current cost per
therm/CCF, I'd be pleased to rework the numbers based on this new
rate.

BTW, for a historical overview of Oregon's natural gas rates, see:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010or3M.htm

Note: Divide these values by 10 to calculate the cost per therm.

Cheers,
Paul

Assuming an AFUE of 90 per cent, that puts
the current cost of gas heat at 5.9 cents per kWh(e). That being the
case, the operating costs of a high efficiency natural gas furnace are
1.6 times higher than our reference heat pump.

Cheers,
Paul

With specific regards to Oregon, the average retail cost of natural
gas per therm/CCF over the past ten years is as follows:

1997 $0.621
1998 $0.681
1999 $0.713
2000 $0.812
2001 $0.970
2002 $1.054
2003 $0.984
2004 $1.111
2005 $1.290
2006 $1.453

Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010or3A.htm

The average residential cost of electricity per kWh during this same
period is as follows:

1997 $0.0556
1998 $0.0582
1999 $0.0575
2000 $0.0588
2001 $0.0629
2002 $0.0712
2003 $0.0706
2004 $0.0718
2005 $0.0725
2006 $0.0748

Source: Table 8,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electri...es/oregon.html

Assuming an AFUE of 90 per cent and a HSPF of 8.5, the average cost
per kWh(e) of natural gas and electric heat in each of these years is
as follows (the third column represents the cost premium of natural
gas heat versus the aforementioned heat pump):

1997 $0.0235 $0.0222 1.1 X
1998 $0.0258 $0.0233 1.1 X
1999 $0.0270 $0.0230 1.2 X
2000 $0.0308 $0.0235 1.3 X
2001 $0.0368 $0.0252 1.5 X
2002 $0.0400 $0.0285 1.4 X
2003 $0.0373 $0.0282 1.3 X
2004 $0.0421 $0.0287 1.5 X
2005 $0.0489 $0.0290 1.7 X
2006 $0.0551 $0.0299 1.8 X

Please note these are state averages, so results will vary according
to the specific service provider.

Cheers,
Paul

Paul M. Eldridge wrote:

With specific regards to Oregon, the average retail cost of natural
gas per therm/CCF...

2006 $1.453 [/0.9x3.41KBtu/kWh/100KBtu = $0.0551/kWh of heat]

Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010or3A.htm

The average residential cost of electricity per kWh...

2006 $0.0748 [3.41/8.5 = 0.0300/kWh of heat]

Source: Table 8,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electri...es/oregon.html

Assuming an AFUE of 90 per cent and a HSPF of 8.5, the average cost
per kWh(e) of natural gas and electric heat in each of these years is
as follows (the third column represents the cost premium of natural
gas heat versus the aforementioned heat pump):

2006 $0.0551 $0.0299 1.8 X

Then again, we could run a $200 unvented gas heater with a 100% AFUE and
11% latent heat and run an $80 window AC with an HSPF = EER = 10 indoors
when the house RH exceeds 50% to convert that to sensible heat...

Or forget the gas heater and run a few ACs with a heating thermostat when
the house drops below 70 F and use a humidistat and a solenoid valve and
a soaker hose to wet a basement floor when the house RH drops below 50%.

Nick

Paul M. Eldridge wrote:
On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:20:17 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:


Paul M. Eldridge wrote:

On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:51:41 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:



[...]
Gut rule of thumb here in Portland, Oregon, where we are generally
without the benefit of heap BPA hydro is that gas in a 90% or 95%
efficient furnace is cheaper, by a long margin, than an electric ea pump with supplmental
resistance heat....


Hi Jim,

It might be helpful if we take a closer look at the numbers. The
trailing block rate for residential customers who opt for PGE's
standard domestic service pay $0.09246 per kWh ($0.07471 per kWh for
the first 250 kWh/month), so a heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 (Zone IV)
would provide heat at an effective cost of just 3.7 cents per kWh(e).

For those not be familiar with the term, HSPF or Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor is defined as "the total space heating required
during the space heating season, expressed in Btu’s, divided by the
total electrical energy consumed by the heat pump system during the
same season, expressed in watt-hours."

Source: ARI Standard 210/240-2006

It's important to note that this seasonal average cost of 3.7 cents
per kWh includes the cost of supplemental or backup electric
resistance heat -- the HSPF rating incorporates this additional backup
heat into the final numbers.

In terms of natural gas, according to the DOE, Oregon residents paid
an average of a $1.43 per therm in 2006 (the average cost as of
October 2007 was $1.56).

That average cost as of October, 2007, does NOT repeat NOT take into
account the NWNG petiion o Oregon PUC to REDUCE (yes, reduce) the gas
rates in the NWNG service area as of 1 Decmber 2007.



Hi Jim,

You indicate rates were reduced December 1st, but you didn't say by
how much. If you can kindly provide me with the current cost per
therm/CCF, I'd be pleased to rework the numbers based on this new
rate.

Paul -

I dug aound the web site for the local gas company
(Northwest Natural Gas, Portlad, Or) and came across their Oregon Tariff
Schedule.

The price reduction was actually 1 November 2007, not 1 December 2007.

The link to the tariff is:

https://www.nwnatural.com/CMS300/upl...iles/242ai.pdf

I am giving you that as I am not really sure how to read the tariff.
It seeems that you havea lot more skill at that than I do.

If I am reading the Oregon Tariff schedule correctly, the current
per Therm cost for residential gas service is $ 1.22449.

I am looking for my local electric utility rate (Portland Geeral
Electric) and
will shoot that out to you as soon as I find it. PGE's rates are at
besyt byzantine.

By the way, thanks for the ongoing education.

Paul M. Eldridge wrote:

On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:20:17 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:


Paul M. Eldridge wrote:

On Sat, 05 Jan 2008 08:51:41 -0800, jJim McLaughlin
wrote:



[...]
Gut rule of thumb here in Portland, Oregon, where we are generally
without the benefit of heap BPA hydro is that gas in a 90% or 95%
efficient furnace is cheaper, by a long margin, than an electric ea pump with supplmental
resistance heat....


Hi Jim,

It might be helpful if we take a closer look at the numbers. The
trailing block rate for residential customers who opt for PGE's
standard domestic service pay $0.09246 per kWh ($0.07471 per kWh for
the first 250 kWh/month), so a heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 (Zone IV)
would provide heat at an effective cost of just 3.7 cents per kWh(e).

For those not be familiar with the term, HSPF or Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor is defined as "the total space heating required
during the space heating season, expressed in Btu’s, divided by the
total electrical energy consumed by the heat pump system during the
same season, expressed in watt-hours."

Source: ARI Standard 210/240-2006

It's important to note that this seasonal average cost of 3.7 cents
per kWh includes the cost of supplemental or backup electric
resistance heat -- the HSPF rating incorporates this additional backup
heat into the final numbers.

In terms of natural gas, according to the DOE, Oregon residents paid
an average of a $1.43 per therm in 2006 (the average cost as of
October 2007 was $1.56).

That average cost as of October, 2007, does NOT repeat NOT take into
account the NWNG petiion o Oregon PUC to REDUCE (yes, reduce) the gas
rates in the NWNG service area as of 1 Decmber 2007.



Hi Jim,

You indicate rates were reduced December 1st, but you didn't say by
how much. If you can kindly provide me with the current cost per
therm/CCF, I'd be pleased to rework the numbers based on this new
rate.


The Portland General Electric residential tariff is available at

http://www.portlandgeneral.com/about_pge/regulatory_affairs/pdfs/schedules/sched_007.pdf

As I said in another post, it is byzantne at best.

I am a residential customer, single phase power, no renewable energy
"blocks";
no "conservaton" blocks, just straight power.

While this is the mst recent (Feb. 2007) tariff on the web site, I think
that this tariff
schedule from the PGE website is not what is currrently in effect. PGE
had huge
(like 25%) rate icreases in June - July 2007 when the 9th Circuit
invalidated all
the BPA offset payments / sales of cheap hydro to the ivestor ulitiies
in the NW.
Oregon PUC approved an emergency rate increase for PGE (and others -
Pacific Power and Light, for example) effective early summer 2007.

I'm going to look atthe Oregon Public Utility Commission (PUC) site to
see if there is anything more transparent as to PGE rates.

Hi Jim,

Thanks for the additional info. In my original analysis, I had used
$0.09246 as PGE's standard domestic rate, but if this rate has since
changed and the schedule shown on PGE's website is out-of-date, please
let me know.

Again, an air-source heat pump with a HSPF of 8.5 will provide, on
average, 2.5 kWh of heat for every kWh consumed, so your effective
cost of electric heat is 3.7 cents per kWh(e). At $1.22449 per therm
and assuming an AFUE of 90 per cent, your cost per kWh of natural gas
heat works out to be 4.64 cents. In this case, natural gas must fall
below $0.98/therm before it breaks even.

For argument sake, we'll assume a typical new home in your climate
requires 50 million BTUs/year for space heating purposes. At current
rates, if it were heated with electric baseboard units, the cost would
be just under $1,355.00, whereas that same home heated with an
air-source heat pump would come in at $542.00. Equipped with a high
efficiency natural gas furnace (90% AFUE) and at $1.22449 per therm, a
homeowner could expect to pay something in the order of $680.00/year.

Natural gas is a terrific fuel but we're quickly running out of it and
over the long term, not withstanding any temporary price fluctuations,
it's going to get increasingly more expensive. For anyone building a
new home or replacing their current heating system, I hope you
consider either an air or ground source heat pump as one more option.

Cheers,
Paul