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  #81   Report Post  
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Posts: 12,155
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 9:24 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?

You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.


Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
some details.



Probably a big factor, less politics. Then add a state income tax,
Texas has no state income tax.

Services are not equal. While most public school systems are greatly
lacking, I think Arkansas falls behind. About half of our property
taxes go to schools.
  #82   Report Post  
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Posts: 12,155
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.


This is a classic case of some one ****ing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.


Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
at home.

Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.



Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.

Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
time home buyers.

And most older buyers have experience with home costs like property tax
increases.
The home we were going to buy would have had a $2K property tax increase
from contract date to closing, and going up from there.







Wait until people start going back to work and not needing a home with
an office and the new home building goes back to normal rates and you
will see materials prices go back to what they should be.


  #83   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
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Posts: 2,833
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM,
wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.


An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.


$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.
  #84   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
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Posts: 2,833
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 07:24:53 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?

You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.


Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
some details.


Probably not. He likely got no services from either.
  #85   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,833
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:14:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 9:24 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?

You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.


Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
some details.



Probably a big factor, less politics. Then add a state income tax,
Texas has no state income tax.

Services are not equal. While most public school systems are greatly
lacking, I think Arkansas falls behind. About half of our property
taxes go to schools.


More like 2/3s any place I've lived.


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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:43:46 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 11:21 AM, Spalted Walt wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote:

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.


+1

Published: April 26, 2021
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/

"HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
[...]
"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)


Soooo the cost of construction materials in a new home is expensive but
not that expensive. I was told by our builder that the materials cost
of the average home was $35K and the average cost of the homes were
$350K. They expected the cost of materials to go up by $12K on our home
so we needed to go into contract to lock in the price. We did but the
builder reneged 2 weeks later. Our builder on average is making $70K
more on a home today than 5 months ago. Do the math.

I'm not buying those numbers. Maybe the cost of stick is that much
but there can easily be more than $35K in the kitchen alone, and
another $35K in bathrooms.
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days…


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.


This is a classic case of some one ****ing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.


Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
at home.

Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.



Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.

Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
time home buyers.


At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers? If so,
they're going to be in for a shock.

And most older buyers have experience with home costs like property tax
increases.
The home we were going to buy would have had a $2K property tax increase
from contract date to closing, and going up from there.

I guess I don't get your point.
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:56:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 6:47 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 6:04:47 PM UTC-4, Scott Lurndal wrote:
nixie tube X11R6 widgetMichael Trew writes:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days…

First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
would choose the one that they liked the best.

Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.

They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
$410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.

One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
for the inspection.

If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.
I believe "DerbyDad03" is somewhere in that area.

I see prices in Cadiz (picked at random) range from 40k for 1800sqft to
700k for 6000 sqft (413 N Main, cadiz).

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...earch/Cadiz_OH


360 miles west in Indiana.

Hard to use a simple price/size comparison. Within 8 miles
$60K gets you 928 sq ft, $960K gets you 988 sq ft. It depends
on how much land you want. .5 acres or 38 acres.

The same holds for other house/lot sizes, of course.

The house in question is 2300 sq ft on 2.5 acres, at the end
of a cul-de-sac. Farm land on 2 sides. Selling price range on
Zillow is $314K - $423K They won't know what they will be
paying until the appraisal comes in. Add $15K up to a max
of $425K.



Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
Roanoke VA.
They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.


The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 06 May 2021 01:10:24 -0400, Michael Trew
wrote:

On 5/5/2021 8:39 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael
wrote:

On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days…

First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
would choose the one that they liked the best.

Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.

They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
$410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.

One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
for the inspection.

If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.


That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).


Unfortunately, my city has one of the highest tax rates in Columbiana
county. That being said, all factored in, including the cost of other
taxes, groceries, general goods, and cost of living in general here,
it's hard to beat this area for affordability. The greater Youngstown
(OH) region has been listed as one of the best places to live in the US
based on cost of living.


I'm somewhat familiar with the area. It was a midpoint for our annual
pilgrimage home. I also worked a bit West of there in Akron (lived in
Kent) for a year. Except for Amish country, a rather depressing area.
If you have a job, I suppose it's affordable.
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.


I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.


Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021

"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."

And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."


More houses, new starts and actual neighborhoods, are being built near
me than in the past 10 years. Builders for a short, period of time last
year, had difficulty in getting materials. That was over in a matter of
weeks. I see no shortages of any building materials including hardwood
materials at all.
As has been reported to my by a contractor friend in SA, Tx his friends
in the suppliers end of the construction business have admitted that
materials are readily available and they are making a killing as their
cost's have gone back down but their prices have not.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

Articles are always insignificant history reports.

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.

Millennials and first time home buyers are pushing the new home market
in the Houston area and apparently through out the country.

We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

We looked at 5 different local neighborhoods and the same story holds.
Houses are going up at an alarming rate.

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

It was me, and we were in contract to build but the builder canceled the
contract on us so that he could make more on the sale. There is in fact
a completed home on the lot we chose now along with a that street being
full of finished homes. That street was empty 5 months ago.
Because new homes are literally increasing in price as often as twice a
week we decided to wait until this crap goes back to normal.


And it's your belief/understanding that the only reason that the prices have
skyrocketed is because the builders are greedy?

Are you willing to entertain the possibility that what is happening in your
area is happening because people can afford to and are willing to pay the
higher the cost of lumber and that the higher cost isn't due to greed but due
to material shortages?

Money can often overcome even the most arduous obstacles, including
lumber shortages. As long as buyers are willing to pay the higher cost,
the builder can probably find a supplier. The builder may or may not make
a higher profit, depending on their pricing model.


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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:00:39 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.


This is a classic case of some one ****ing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.

Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
at home.

Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.



Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.

Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
time home buyers.


At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers?


Well, this whole discussion was started with a description of a
first-time buying couple submitting an offer that could max out
at $425K, so yes.

My friends that just had a house built sold their old house to a
first-time buying couple for a bit over $400K. (My friends bought
the house about 6 years ago (before prices skyrocketed) and signed
the build contract 2 weeks before Covid hit, so their timing worked
out perfectly. Bought low, built low, sold high.)

According to Experian, as of 2019 the average age of a first-time
homebuyer is 34. As in the case of my son and GF, a 34 YO could
be well established in their careers and, coupled with low interest
rates, can afford more of a house than perhaps you and I could -
especially because we probably bought our first house at a younger
age. I know I did.
  #93   Report Post  
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Posts: 14,845
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:08:13 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Thu, 06 May 2021 01:10:24 -0400, Michael Trew
wrote:

On 5/5/2021 8:39 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael
wrote:

On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦

First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
would choose the one that they liked the best.

Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
havent even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
and their agents assurance that the house was listed at a great
price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.

They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
$410K if the appraisal is low €“ assuming its not so low that the seller
backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value wont be low
enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.

One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
accepted. Even though the offer was €śas-is€ť and not contingent on an
inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the sellers disclosure form
is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
for the inspection.

If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.

That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).


Unfortunately, my city has one of the highest tax rates in Columbiana
county. That being said, all factored in, including the cost of other
taxes, groceries, general goods, and cost of living in general here,
it's hard to beat this area for affordability. The greater Youngstown
(OH) region has been listed as one of the best places to live in the US
based on cost of living.

I'm somewhat familiar with the area. It was a midpoint for our annual
pilgrimage home. I also worked a bit West of there in Akron (lived in
Kent) for a year. Except for Amish country, a rather depressing area.
If you have a job, I suppose it's affordable.


Ah...Akron. Home of Derby Downs. I know it well.

  #94   Report Post  
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!



At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers?


Well, this whole discussion was started with a description of a
first-time buying couple submitting an offer that could max out
at $425K, so yes.

My friends that just had a house built sold their old house to a
first-time buying couple for a bit over $400K. (My friends bought
the house about 6 years ago (before prices skyrocketed) and signed
the build contract 2 weeks before Covid hit, so their timing worked
out perfectly. Bought low, built low, sold high.)

According to Experian, as of 2019 the average age of a first-time
homebuyer is 34. As in the case of my son and GF, a 34 YO could
be well established in their careers and, coupled with low interest
rates, can afford more of a house than perhaps you and I could -
especially because we probably bought our first house at a younger
age. I know I did.



Yepper. 1981 housing boom-time ; an hour from Greater Toronto ;
bidding wars and homes selling for more-than-ask .. a new thing.
16 1/2 % mortgage rates no mis-print
I, of course, signed a 1-year mortgage term - only to renew
at 18 % no mis print In that 12 months, the mortgage game
changed and I could sign for 3 months or variable. Some folks
took advice from a well known Sun newspaper columnist named Garth -
and took a longer term at 18 % ! - I went variable and renewed
less than 2 years later at 12 1/2.
.. the good ol' days. Eh.
John T.

ps: $ 67,000



I planted that honey locust.
It backed onto endless farm fields then - endless homes now :-(

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Posts: 2,833
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:28:03 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:00:39 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days…


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.


This is a classic case of some one ****ing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.

Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
at home.

Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.


Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.

Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
time home buyers.


At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers?


Well, this whole discussion was started with a description of a
first-time buying couple submitting an offer that could max out
at $425K, so yes.

My friends that just had a house built sold their old house to a
first-time buying couple for a bit over $400K. (My friends bought
the house about 6 years ago (before prices skyrocketed) and signed
the build contract 2 weeks before Covid hit, so their timing worked
out perfectly. Bought low, built low, sold high.)

According to Experian, as of 2019 the average age of a first-time
homebuyer is 34. As in the case of my son and GF, a 34 YO could
be well established in their careers and, coupled with low interest
rates, can afford more of a house than perhaps you and I could -
especially because we probably bought our first house at a younger
age. I know I did.


I was 30 but I couldn't have paid 3x what I did.


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Posted to rec.woodworking
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Posts: 14,845
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 2:54:09 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:

On 5/6/2021 1:02 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:56:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:


Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
Roanoke VA.
They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.

The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?



Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!


It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right. It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.


+1

Due to sloppy trimming, I was recently €ścredited€ť with saying
something that somebody else posted. While I pointed out the
error in my response, theres no editing a previous post, so the
error is a permanent part of the internet now.
  #98   Report Post  
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Posts: 2,760
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/5/2021 2:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:


I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.


Bought my house and closed in December 2018. They started at $230 but
by the time we added the options it was $270 + the lot. The equivalent
new model now starts in the low $300s, plus options.

Looks like the same house is about $70k more than three years ago. Seem
to be selling well too.

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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 11:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

This is a classic case of some one ****ing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.


Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
at home.

Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.


There are about 300,000 people a year moving to Florida. Even at 3 to a
household that is a lot pf houses or apartments. Building is crazy in
this area

There is talk of a planned community about 10 miles from me with 7000
homes. That will have a population more than the town I moved from.
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 5:38 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Due to sloppy trimming, I was recently €ścredited€ť with saying
something that somebody else posted. While I pointed out the
error in my response, theres no editing a previous post, so the
error is a permanent part of the internet now.


Yeah, all my neighbors were talking about that.


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Posts: 4,564
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM,
wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.


An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

Bet you get your money's worth in Arkansas, service wise. Pay
nothing, get nothing.
  #103   Report Post  
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:43:46 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 11:21 AM, Spalted Walt wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote:

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.


+1

Published: April 26, 2021
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/

"HOUSTON – Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
[...]
"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)


Soooo the cost of construction materials in a new home is expensive but
not that expensive. I was told by our builder that the materials cost
of the average home was $35K and the average cost of the homes were
$350K. They expected the cost of materials to go up by $12K on our home
so we needed to go into contract to lock in the price. We did but the
builder reneged 2 weeks later. Our builder on average is making $70K
more on a home today than 5 months ago. Do the math.


Can't see how that's working, with plywood and studs 4 to 9 times as
expensive today than 2019
  #104   Report Post  
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 06 May 2021 01:10:24 -0400, Michael Trew
wrote:

On 5/5/2021 8:39 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 05 May 2021 15:55:20 -0400, Michael
wrote:

On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days…

First, I should note that the submission period for offers was the 48
hours after the house hit the market. This was one of those listings
where all offers would be reviewed at the same time and the sellers
would choose the one that they liked the best.

Since my son and his GF are relocating to a different state, they
haven’t even seen the house in person. Just pictures, a video tour
and their agent’s assurance that the house was listed at a great
price, way under what she expected it to sell for. (She was right)
They submitted their offer within a few hours of the house being
listed. There was a total of 12 offers submitted in that 48 hour period.

They submitted an offer at full asking price ($370K), no contingencies.
The offer included an escalation clause. The escalation clause would
automatically increase their offer to $1000 more than the highest offer
submitted, but not to exceed $410K. They also included an "appraisal
clause" which stated that they would give the sellers up to $15K above
the appraised value, not to exceed $425K.

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

So they may pay as much as $425K, but they may pay less than the
$410K if the appraisal is low – assuming it’s not so low that the seller
backs out. Their agent is sure that the appraised value won’t be low
enough for that to happen. The seller is moving out of town and needs
to get the house sold, thus the comparatively low asking price.

One other clause was a 15 day due-diligence clause, which was
accepted. Even though the offer was “as-is” and not contingent on an
inspection, they are still going to have one done and can use that to
negotiate repairs or get out of the contract if the seller’s disclosure form
is not accurate. They are hoping that at least one of them can be present
for the inspection.

If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Is this in California? The market is far different in rural eastern
Ohio where I live. I would live in my car vs. paying those kind of
prices for a house... my house is appraised at $40k - 2k sq ft home. I
paid $2k and change for it - foreclosure. $10K and sweat equity into it
- all I pay is $600 and change annually for property tax.


That's pretty bad, actually. You're paying 1.5% of the value of the
property in taxes. I pay less than half that (.065%).


Unfortunately, my city has one of the highest tax rates in Columbiana
county. That being said, all factored in, including the cost of other
taxes, groceries, general goods, and cost of living in general here,
it's hard to beat this area for affordability. The greater Youngstown
(OH) region has been listed as one of the best places to live in the US
based on cost of living.

As long as you don't need a good paying job you are fine!! (good
place to retire or telecommute)
  #105   Report Post  
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Thu, 06 May 2021 23:43:38 -0400, Clare Snyder
wrote:

On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM,
wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

Bet you get your money's worth in Arkansas, service wise. Pay
nothing, get nothing.


What "service" do you think someone needs that is not available in
Arkansas?




  #107   Report Post  
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Posts: 643
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/6/2021 5:38 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Due to sloppy trimming, I was recently €ścredited€ť with saying
something that somebody else posted. While I pointed out the
error in my response, theres no editing a previous post, so the
error is a permanent part of the internet now.


Yeah, all my neighbors were talking about that.


+10

https://i.imgur.com/fPF8LdW.gif

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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:


Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!


It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right.



If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
put your favorite vulgar noun here.


It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.



OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"

That's not correct is it?


--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus


Perhaps you should consider changing your Avast settings. Are you
getting paid to advertise for them?
  #110   Report Post  
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Posts: 19
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/7/2021 11:21 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:


Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right.



If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
put your favorite vulgar noun here.


It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.



OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"

That's not correct is it?


This really troubles you???

Perhaps you should consider changing your Avast settings. Are you
getting paid to advertise for them?



--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus



  #111   Report Post  
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Posts: 2,833
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Fri, 7 May 2021 12:32:42 -0400, Bill wrote:

On 5/7/2021 11:21 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:

Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right.


If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
put your favorite vulgar noun here.


It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.



OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"

That's not correct is it?


This really troubles you???


Your whining? Not too much, considering the source.

Perhaps you should consider changing your Avast settings. Are you
getting paid to advertise for them?

  #112   Report Post  
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Posts: 12,155
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 11:53 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:43:46 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 11:21 AM, Spalted Walt wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote:

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

e.g.
https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.

+1

Published: April 26, 2021
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/

"HOUSTON €“ Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
[...]
"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)


Soooo the cost of construction materials in a new home is expensive but
not that expensive. I was told by our builder that the materials cost
of the average home was $35K and the average cost of the homes were
$350K. They expected the cost of materials to go up by $12K on our home
so we needed to go into contract to lock in the price. We did but the
builder reneged 2 weeks later. Our builder on average is making $70K
more on a home today than 5 months ago. Do the math.

I'm not buying those numbers. Maybe the cost of stick is that much
but there can easily be more than $35K in the kitchen alone, and
another $35K in bathrooms.



Yes, I was only talking about the framing lumber and roof decking.
Those items are the ones that have gone up the most, percentage wise.

Premade components, cabinets, plumbing fixtures, have always been too
expensive for what you are getting.


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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 10:46 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:43:46 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 11:21 AM, Spalted Walt wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote:

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.

+1

Published: April 26, 2021
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/

"HOUSTON €“ Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
[...]
"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)


Soooo the cost of construction materials in a new home is expensive but
not that expensive. I was told by our builder that the materials cost
of the average home was $35K and the average cost of the homes were
$350K. They expected the cost of materials to go up by $12K on our home
so we needed to go into contract to lock in the price. We did but the
builder reneged 2 weeks later. Our builder on average is making $70K
more on a home today than 5 months ago. Do the math.


Can't see how that's working, with plywood and studs 4 to 9 times as
expensive today than 2019



That is today, not 7 months ago when we were told this.
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 12:32:45 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 11:21 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:

Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right.


If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
put your favorite vulgar noun here.


It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.



OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"

That's not correct is it?

This really troubles you???


Does this particular instance *really* trouble me? No. However, there
is a bigger point.

As I mentioned in a previous post, sloppy trimming can cause a post
to credit one person with saying something that they did not say.

This is a benign instance, as was the case when I was credited with
something that I didn't say due to sloppy trimming.. The problem is,
the next time it may not be as benign.

I'm sure that you would not be pleased if I, due to sloppy trimming (as
I assume was the case in this instance) made it look like you said
something inflammatory, bigoted, hurtful or completely false, i.e. If
I put someone else's words in your mouth.

I'm not saying that trimming is a bad thing in general, just that it's
not as simple as you make it sound - and have proven. Trim away.
I do it every now and then. However, I take the time to ensure that
my trimming doesn't change the context or ownership of what
was originally posted.

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.
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Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.



Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
is nothing more than "Oh, me too".

--
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  #116   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
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Posts: 14,845
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.

Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus


Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.

As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
to be bugged by something more substantial.

Think "Serenity Prayer"

Moving on...
  #117   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 19
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/7/2021 2:30 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.

Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus


Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.

As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
to be bugged by something more substantial.

Think "Serenity Prayer"


No, I do not accept that I can't help change this. There was one
particular "offender" whose name I won't mention except to say that it
was not you (so I was surprised that you got involved at all).


Moving on...


  #118   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 12,155
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.


Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021


If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.




"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."


In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
after completion now.


And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."


I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
inventories are growing.





More houses, new starts and actual neighborhoods, are being built near
me than in the past 10 years. Builders for a short, period of time last
year, had difficulty in getting materials. That was over in a matter of
weeks. I see no shortages of any building materials including hardwood
materials at all.
As has been reported to my by a contractor friend in SA, Tx his friends
in the suppliers end of the construction business have admitted that
materials are readily available and they are making a killing as their
cost's have gone back down but their prices have not.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

Articles are always insignificant history reports.

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.

Millennials and first time home buyers are pushing the new home market
in the Houston area and apparently through out the country.

We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

We looked at 5 different local neighborhoods and the same story holds.
Houses are going up at an alarming rate.

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

It was me, and we were in contract to build but the builder canceled the
contract on us so that he could make more on the sale. There is in fact
a completed home on the lot we chose now along with a that street being
full of finished homes. That street was empty 5 months ago.
Because new homes are literally increasing in price as often as twice a
week we decided to wait until this crap goes back to normal.


And it's your belief/understanding that the only reason that the prices have
skyrocketed is because the builders are greedy?


In college economics we were taught several aspects that drive prices up.
Supply and demand. The one every one thinks is the only reason. But
having run businesses since I was 21, I can assure the other practice
that drives prices up is "What the market will bear." A great example
of this is different pricing on the same goods at different stores, gas
stations, etc.

Fake news is behind the times on what is going on so the public is
conditioned to believe the "salesmans" excuse for higher home prices.
Demand is there but the cost should be returning to normal. BUT as long
as people are willing to pay out the nose for a product that is no
better than one built a year ago why not charge more.

Another example, waaaay back when I managed the parts departments for a
couple of car dealerships. I bought freon 12 a hundred cases at a time.
Through GM the cost was $1.57 per pound. I bought freon with out the
GM label, but the same product, for $0.38 per pound. When I bought I
immediately marked my cost up to $1.57 per pound and added $1400 to my
monthly profit.




Are you willing to entertain the possibility that what is happening in your
area is happening because people can afford to and are willing to pay the
higher the cost of lumber and that the higher cost isn't due to greed but due
to material shortages?


Nope. My builder canceled my contract along with all other, to be built
homes under contract. He wanted to pocket the price increases between
contract time and when he could sell the home for after it was built.

Can these people afford these homes? Right now they can because
interest rates are sooooo low. Without low interest rates, not a chance
so many would. And you might say well the interest rates are probably
locked and if they can afford the home now they can later on. Maybe
not. Inceased assessed tax value alone may place a hardship on new home
buyers.
The home we were going to build and not gone up much in the previous
year. In one month, from the time we started talking to the builder, to
the time we went into contract, there was a couple of price increases,
they both totaled $2K. Since the contract was canceled 7 months ago the
price of the house has gone up $70K. So when we were buying the pricing
was going up at a normal rate. Now the builders are simply going up in
price because the market is willing to paying high prices. So they are
following suit.

In this area people tend to buy as much house as they can eek out of
their income. Buyers qualify for loans at todays prices and assessed
values of the home. So they have to be able to afford P&I, insurance
and property taxes, and if they don't put 20% down you and PMI to that
monthly payment.

Builders are mostly only selling spec homes because the buyer qualifies
to move in right now. If the buyer is having a home built, as we were,
he may no longer qualify to buy the home after it increases in
value/equity just from a property tax standpoint. Then the builder has
to sell a home built to what ever specs the previous buyer wanted.

So lets say the buyer eeks in to be able to afford to build a home with
payments of $2500.
If prices go up like they have in the last 7 months that home owner, on
a $400K home can expect his property taxes to go up about $200 per month
over the next 7 months and even more until prices stabilize.

Then as demand subsides,,,,, he finds can get into another home equal
home for less.... But he is likely going to be upside down and will not
be able to sell the house for that fluke inflated price... Buyer beware.

I am glad our builder canceled our contract, given the absurd price
increases. I am not willing to pay an additional $2000 per year in
taxes for price increases over a 7 month period.

As along as there is high demand the sellers and product suppliers will
charge what the market will bare.


Money can often overcome even the most arduous obstacles, including
lumber shortages. As long as buyers are willing to pay the higher cost,
the builder can probably find a supplier. The builder may or may not make
a higher profit, depending on their pricing model.


Again, in this area builders are no longer having an issue with finding
a supplier.

And FWIW you have to remember with anything manufactured, LABOR is the
overwhelming cost of the good. You might be very surprised what the
total materials cost to build a home is, compared to the the price
charged and or the materials and labor cost.

A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
should be.

  #120   Report Post  
Posted to rec.woodworking
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Posts: 12,155
Default OT: House Offer Accepted. What A Crazy Market!

On 5/6/2021 12:28 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 1:00:39 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 10:25:43 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 10:06 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:50:40 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 1:04 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I *just* got off the phone with a friend that had house built recently.

They signed the deal in February 2020, just before Covid hit. The build started in
August of 2020 but they were luckily locked in at the February number.

They were talking to the builder last month when he started construction on a
house in the next lot over. I don't know the price of either house but I do know
that the builder told my friend that the new build is a couple of hundred square
feet smaller but was costing $36K more than her house. He also told them that
he didn't know the exact number, but if he had charged them what he should have
in August, it would have easily added $15K to their cost. The profit he made on her
house was significantly impacted. The builder said that the lumber shortage is
the cause of the increase.

No one will sell him huge stacks of lumber like he used to buy. He used to buy
in "bulk" for a better price and store it for future builds. Now he's being told that
if they fulfill large orders, they will have to say "No" to other clients and risk loosing
them as customers when things settle down. That means that the builders are
being hit twice. Once because of the price increase of the material itself and
again because they can't get the same bulk pricing that they got on the larger
orders. That problems works it way back up the supply chain so everyone is
being impacted.

She also mentioned that friends of theirs had been working with an architect on
a renovation project. They are still in the design phase, so no orders have been
placed. They just put the project on hold due the high cost of lumber and how it
was driving the price way beyond their budget.


This is a classic case of some one ****ing on your boots and telling you
it is raining.

Inflated materials costs should no longer be inflated, there has not
been a reason for high materials cost for several months. But when the
uneducated first time home buyers are willing to pay those
extraordinarly prices why would a supplier go back to regular pre-covid
pricing.

Don't blame it all on "uneducated first time buyers". This particular case
involves homes being built for the retirement segment. Single level, no
trip hazards, wider "aisles" for ease of getting around so they can age
at home.

Uneducated? *Maybe* but since the houses are still being built, that
must mean that the older crowd is just as ignorant as the youngsters.


Just to clarify, I meant to say uneducated in home buying and ownership.

Every age group has it's deficiencies. But right now, today, at the all
time high of home building, what is the ratio of older buyers to first
time home buyers.


At a buy-in of $4-500K, is it really first time buyers?


Well, this whole discussion was started with a description of a
first-time buying couple submitting an offer that could max out
at $425K, so yes.

My friends that just had a house built sold their old house to a
first-time buying couple for a bit over $400K. (My friends bought
the house about 6 years ago (before prices skyrocketed) and signed
the build contract 2 weeks before Covid hit, so their timing worked
out perfectly. Bought low, built low, sold high.)


EXACTLY! The time to have bought was about 18 months ago.




According to Experian, as of 2019 the average age of a first-time
homebuyer is 34. As in the case of my son and GF, a 34 YO could
be well established in their careers and, coupled with low interest
rates, can afford more of a house than perhaps you and I could -
especially because we probably bought our first house at a younger
age. I know I did.


My wife and I bought when I was 26 she was 23. We were inexperienced
and got in at the beginning of interest rates going up and a year too
late. Homes in our price range went up 33% in one year. We could have
bought a slightly bigger home a hear prior for $45K, we got a smaller
home for an inflated $60K. And over 30 years the house went up 35% in
value.

Well at least the taxes were pretty good. ;~)


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