On 5/6/2021 12:02 PM, wroteSnip





Some dear ex-neighbors of ours moved to to about 30 miles south of
Roanoke VA.
They are in a rural setting, beautiful green grass rolling hills, 13
acres with a creek at the back of the property and in the middle a 9200
sq ft 3 story home. $525K. They bought 18 months ago.

The nearest grocery stores is in Roanoke, right?

No, there is plenty of everything relatively near by.

On 5/7/2021 11:32 AM, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 11:21 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:

Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right.


If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
put your favorite vulgar noun here.


It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.



OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"

That's not correct is it?

This really troubles you???

Perhaps you should consider changing your Avast settings. Are you
getting paid to advertise for them?



Sooo Billlll. Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
did you just want to add noise.

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

On 5/6/2021 11:50 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 07:24:53 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?

You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
some details.

Probably not. He likely got no services from either.



LOL He and I used to discuss this. And I have to agree with him.

Every one pays the same price for almost everything., Groceries,
electricity, clothing, automobiles and you sort's get what you pay for.

Considering that your next door neighbor gets the same services as you,
why do you pay more for those government services.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:41:36 -0400, Bill wrote:

On 5/7/2021 2:30 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.

Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.

As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
to be bugged by something more substantial.

Think "Serenity Prayer"

No, I do not accept that I can't help change this. There was one
particular "offender" whose name I won't mention except to say that it
was not you (so I was surprised that you got involved at all).

You can help change this by not posting anymore.

On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?


Many towns have similar things for seniors In Florida we have Homestead
that gives some exemption. You have to be a resident and US citizen so
the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.

On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year..

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.

Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021

If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.




"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."

In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
after completion now.


And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."

I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
inventories are growing.

I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy.

However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
some numbers behind it.

Let's say I'm a wholesaler.

Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
the inability to purchase as much as I sold.

Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.

Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.

I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
better, but we are not out of the woods yet."




More houses, new starts and actual neighborhoods, are being built near
me than in the past 10 years. Builders for a short, period of time last
year, had difficulty in getting materials. That was over in a matter of
weeks. I see no shortages of any building materials including hardwood
materials at all.
As has been reported to my by a contractor friend in SA, Tx his friends
in the suppliers end of the construction business have admitted that
materials are readily available and they are making a killing as their
cost's have gone back down but their prices have not.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?
Articles are always insignificant history reports.

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.
Millennials and first time home buyers are pushing the new home market
in the Houston area and apparently through out the country.

We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months..

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

We looked at 5 different local neighborhoods and the same story holds.
Houses are going up at an alarming rate.

I might be recalling this incorrectly, but weren't you going to build but changed your
mind due to the increased cost? (It may have been someone else)

It was me, and we were in contract to build but the builder canceled the
contract on us so that he could make more on the sale. There is in fact
a completed home on the lot we chose now along with a that street being
full of finished homes. That street was empty 5 months ago.
Because new homes are literally increasing in price as often as twice a
week we decided to wait until this crap goes back to normal.

And it's your belief/understanding that the only reason that the prices have
skyrocketed is because the builders are greedy?

In college economics we were taught several aspects that drive prices up.
Supply and demand. The one every one thinks is the only reason. But
having run businesses since I was 21, I can assure the other practice
that drives prices up is "What the market will bear." A great example
of this is different pricing on the same goods at different stores, gas
stations, etc.

Fake news is behind the times on what is going on so the public is
conditioned to believe the "salesmans" excuse for higher home prices.
Demand is there but the cost should be returning to normal. BUT as long
as people are willing to pay out the nose for a product that is no
better than one built a year ago why not charge more.

Another example, waaaay back when I managed the parts departments for a
couple of car dealerships. I bought freon 12 a hundred cases at a time.
Through GM the cost was $1.57 per pound. I bought freon with out the
GM label, but the same product, for $0.38 per pound. When I bought I
immediately marked my cost up to $1.57 per pound and added $1400 to my
monthly profit.




Are you willing to entertain the possibility that what is happening in your
area is happening because people can afford to and are willing to pay the
higher the cost of lumber and that the higher cost isn't due to greed but due
to material shortages?

Nope. My builder canceled my contract along with all other, to be built
homes under contract. He wanted to pocket the price increases between
contract time and when he could sell the home for after it was built.

Can these people afford these homes? Right now they can because
interest rates are sooooo low. Without low interest rates, not a chance
so many would. And you might say well the interest rates are probably
locked and if they can afford the home now they can later on. Maybe
not. Inceased assessed tax value alone may place a hardship on new home
buyers.
The home we were going to build and not gone up much in the previous
year. In one month, from the time we started talking to the builder, to
the time we went into contract, there was a couple of price increases,
they both totaled $2K. Since the contract was canceled 7 months ago the
price of the house has gone up $70K. So when we were buying the pricing
was going up at a normal rate. Now the builders are simply going up in
price because the market is willing to paying high prices. So they are
following suit.

In this area people tend to buy as much house as they can eek out of
their income. Buyers qualify for loans at todays prices and assessed
values of the home. So they have to be able to afford P&I, insurance
and property taxes, and if they don't put 20% down you and PMI to that
monthly payment.

Builders are mostly only selling spec homes because the buyer qualifies
to move in right now. If the buyer is having a home built, as we were,
he may no longer qualify to buy the home after it increases in
value/equity just from a property tax standpoint. Then the builder has
to sell a home built to what ever specs the previous buyer wanted.

So lets say the buyer eeks in to be able to afford to build a home with
payments of $2500.
If prices go up like they have in the last 7 months that home owner, on
a $400K home can expect his property taxes to go up about $200 per month
over the next 7 months and even more until prices stabilize.

Then as demand subsides,,,,, he finds can get into another home equal
home for less.... But he is likely going to be upside down and will not
be able to sell the house for that fluke inflated price... Buyer beware.

I am glad our builder canceled our contract, given the absurd price
increases. I am not willing to pay an additional $2000 per year in
taxes for price increases over a 7 month period.

As along as there is high demand the sellers and product suppliers will
charge what the market will bare.


Money can often overcome even the most arduous obstacles, including
lumber shortages. As long as buyers are willing to pay the higher cost,
the builder can probably find a supplier. The builder may or may not make
a higher profit, depending on their pricing model.


Again, in this area builders are no longer having an issue with finding
a supplier.

And FWIW you have to remember with anything manufactured, LABOR is the
overwhelming cost of the good. You might be very surprised what the
total materials cost to build a home is, compared to the the price
charged and or the materials and labor cost.

A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
should be.

On 5/7/2021 2:23 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?


Yes I believe so, but you have to know to sign up for it. I have not
done this for my self but my sister and BIL did many many years ago
also. He will never move, my sister passed away 5 years ago.

The property, if inherited from the estate, will have to pay those back
taxes and interest.

On 5/7/2021 2:41 PM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet
wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet
wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon
lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski
wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer
price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an
escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause
was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their
offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my
cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I
congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is
appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can
live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will
still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â*Â*Â* Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with
upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area
is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant
economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe
400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to
relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now.Â* It will be interesting to see
how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


Â*Â*Â*Â*Â* I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in
2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% -Â* 18% if
you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K.Â* 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981Â* Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15
years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage
off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I
think)
we were looking at 18% interest.Â* We bought in September, with a
14%
30-year mortgage.Â* A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%.Â* We
paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed
at 12%



Estimated value today $164K.Â* $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish.Â* The next house was in VT.Â* We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300.Â* It's now $404.Â* Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes!Â* You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to
pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL.Â* We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K).Â* Taxes, close to $4K.Â* It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer.Â* SWMBO loved the kitchen.Â* She was rather
****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500.Â* Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously.Â* The RE
agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either.Â* It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the
dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65.Â* In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72.Â* Other counties forgive it at 65.Â* GA is a very
retiree friendly state.Â* Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a
lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing
prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were
walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes
are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs.Â* Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs.Â* Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010.Â* It was locked in for 5
years.Â* We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in.Â* We would have paid it off within the next couple of
years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us.Â* But we decided to go
all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale
price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad.Â* The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house.Â* Have I really been around here
that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Â*Â* Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs
AR.
Â*Â* The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40
times
smaller.Â* IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!!Â* I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying
lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption?Â* Is that a TX thing?


Many towns have similar things for seniorsÂ* In Florida we have Homestead
that gives some exemption.Â* You have to be a resident and US citizen so
the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.


We have Homestead too but it is no where near the cost reduction. BUT
it is a discount and is not putting off paying taxes and or interest.

Also in the county that I live in has an exemption for over 65 in
addition to the Homestead exemption. This saves us an additional $1K
annually.

You have to know and sign up for both of these exemptions.

On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.

Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021

If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.




"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."

In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
after completion now.


And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."

I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
inventories are growing.

I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy.

However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
some numbers behind it.

Let's say I'm a wholesaler.

Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
the inability to purchase as much as I sold.

Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.

Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.

I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
better, but we are not out of the woods yet."



So this is not complicated..... Normally a supplier keeps "x" days of
supply on hand. This practice is to insure coverage in the event of a
shortage of availability. That has always happened and is not unique to
the times we are in. Computers sure mad this easier to calculate 40+
years ago in the automotive industry.

Anyway. Last year suppliers were running out completely. That was the
issue with the builders paying top dollar for the materials that they
were buying. And because suppliers had "X" days of supply this is why
the shortage did not show up until about mid year.

But now, in this general region of Texas there is no shortage of
supplies, it's just that the consumer and contractor costs have not yet
gone back to what they should. The only thing that will encourage
prices to go back down is for consumers to stop paying these inflated
prices and or more suppliers to come back on line to compete, some went
out of business.
Remember, competition keeps prices in check for the consumer.


You really don't need to see numbers, If a suppliers inventory is
growing, he is selling less than he can provide, plain and simple.
A growing inventory is typically one measured over several months, not a
spot check of dollar value today compared to yesterday or the week before.
I would suggest that once the supplier gets back to his normal days of
supply he will begin to lower his prices because too much inventory is
costly to the supplier.
There is a delicate balance between too much money sitting on the
shelves and not generating money because the shelf is empty.

On 5/7/2021 3:28 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:41:36 -0400, Bill wrote:

On 5/7/2021 2:30 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.

Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.

As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
to be bugged by something more substantial.

Think "Serenity Prayer"

No, I do not accept that I can't help change this. There was one
particular "offender" whose name I won't mention except to say that it
was not you (so I was surprised that you got involved at all).

You can help change this by not posting anymore.



Ha, You recognized yourself! But, if you desire, I'll block/filter you.
And if you keep it up, even if you don't.

On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:
On 5/7/2021 11:32 AM, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 11:21 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 8:55:55 AM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/6/2021 2:52 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 13:32:04 -0400, Bill wrote:

Please *trim* your messages (everyone!). There seem to be dozens of
long messages with one sentence appended, and it only takes a few
seconds. I think would make the forum more enjoyable for everyone!

It takes a lot more than "a few seconds" to keep the attributions
right.


If you have time to post, you have time to do it right! Don't be a lazy
put your favorite vulgar noun here.


It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice
but it's not as simple as you propose. IOW, stop whining.



OK, so I'm confused as to who said what here. It looks like you
said "It *does* only take a few seconds to scroll. Trimming is nice"

That's not correct is it?

This really troubles you???

Perhaps you should consider changing your Avast settings. Are you
getting paid to advertise for them?



Sooo Billlll.Â* Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
did you just want to add noise.

I think I was one of the first to reply to this new thread. I do have a
question I wanted to ask about assessments, since that topic arose, but
I was waiting for the right time.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:

Sooo Billlll.Â* Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
did you just want to add noise.

I made my first reply to the thread when it was 54 minutes old (or
"new"). Are you going to play "instigator"?

--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 5:59:50 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published..

Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021

If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made..




"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."

In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
after completion now.


And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."

I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
inventories are growing.

I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy..

However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
some numbers behind it.

Let's say I'm a wholesaler.

Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
the inability to purchase as much as I sold.

Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.

Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.

I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
better, but we are not out of the woods yet."
So this is not complicated..... Normally a supplier keeps "x" days of
supply on hand. This practice is to insure coverage in the event of a
shortage of availability. That has always happened and is not unique to
the times we are in. Computers sure mad this easier to calculate 40+
years ago in the automotive industry.

Anyway. Last year suppliers were running out completely. That was the
issue with the builders paying top dollar for the materials that they
were buying. And because suppliers had "X" days of supply this is why
the shortage did not show up until about mid year.

But now, in this general region of Texas there is no shortage of
supplies, it's just that the consumer and contractor costs have not yet
gone back to what they should. The only thing that will encourage
prices to go back down is for consumers to stop paying these inflated
prices and or more suppliers to come back on line to compete, some went
out of business.
Remember, competition keeps prices in check for the consumer.


You really don't need to see numbers, If a suppliers inventory is
growing, he is selling less than he can provide, plain and simple.
A growing inventory is typically one measured over several months, not a
spot check of dollar value today compared to yesterday or the week before..
I would suggest that once the supplier gets back to his normal days of
supply he will begin to lower his prices because too much inventory is
costly to the supplier.
There is a delicate balance between too much money sitting on the
shelves and not generating money because the shelf is empty.

We are looking at inventory growth from 2 different view points, so
let's just move on.

If you're convinced that that there is no shortage and that prices
are only up because consumers are willing to pay whatever the
builder asks, we can just leave it there.

Good talk.

This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Thank you for bringing this to my attention! I wasn't aware that my
virus detection software started appending this message, and I apologize
for any inconvenience it may have caused others. I fully agree that
such a message just clutters up the forum, and I have taken the
necessary steps to re-configure the software. That's just the way I am.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:21:10 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:50 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 07:24:53 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:

On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:13:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?

You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

Yet somehow services are provided in both states. Obviously we're lacking
some details.

Probably not. He likely got no services from either.



LOL He and I used to discuss this. And I have to agree with him.

I meant from either state, high or low taxed.

Every one pays the same price for almost everything., Groceries,
electricity, clothing, automobiles and you sort's get what you pay for.

That's not fair!

Considering that your next door neighbor gets the same services as you,
why do you pay more for those government services.

It's worse than even that. Property tax is a tax on wealth, not even
the ability to pay.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 15:41:36 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?


Many towns have similar things for seniors In Florida we have Homestead
that gives some exemption. You have to be a resident and US citizen so
the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.

OK, we have the same thing here but there is no interest or even
payback (that's strange).

After a certain age (by county) property tax is lowered. In some
cases the school tax portion is exempt. At 65 my taxes went down
about 30%. At 72, school tax goes away completely. A friend lives in
a different county and entire school tax was exempt at age 62. GA is
one of the more retirement friendly states.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 16:35:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 2:41 PM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/7/2021 3:23 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet
wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet
wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon
lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski
wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer
price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an
escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause
was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their
offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my
cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I
congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is
appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can
live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will
still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
**** ** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with
upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area
is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant
economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe
400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to
relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now.* It will be interesting to see
how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


***** I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in
2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% -* 18% if
you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K.* 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981* Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15
years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage
off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I
think)
we were looking at 18% interest.* We bought in September, with a
14%
30-year mortgage.* A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%.* We
paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed
at 12%



Estimated value today $164K.* $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish.* The next house was in VT.* We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300.* It's now $404.* Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes!* You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to
pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL.* We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K).* Taxes, close to $4K.* It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer.* SWMBO loved the kitchen.* She was rather
****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500.* Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously.* The RE
agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either.* It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the
dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65.* In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72.* Other counties forgive it at 65.* GA is a very
retiree friendly state.* Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a
lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing
prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were
walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes
are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs.* Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs.* Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010.* It was locked in for 5
years.* We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in.* We would have paid it off within the next couple of
years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us.* But we decided to go
all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale
price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad.* The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house.* Have I really been around here
that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

** Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs
AR.
** The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40
times
smaller.* IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!!* I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying
lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption?* Is that a TX thing?


Many towns have similar things for seniors* In Florida we have Homestead
that gives some exemption.* You have to be a resident and US citizen so
the snowbirds that have second homes here do not qualify.


We have Homestead too but it is no where near the cost reduction. BUT
it is a discount and is not putting off paying taxes and or interest.

Also in the county that I live in has an exemption for over 65 in
addition to the Homestead exemption. This saves us an additional $1K
annually.

It's $1K at 65 (this county) and another $1K (or more) at age 72.

You have to know and sign up for both of these exemptions.

Yes, but it's not hidden at all. IITC, our lawyer filed for it as a
matter of course when we were closing.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 16:31:30 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 2:23 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.

Which exemption? Is that a TX thing?


Yes I believe so, but you have to know to sign up for it. I have not
done this for my self but my sister and BIL did many many years ago
also. He will never move, my sister passed away 5 years ago.

The property, if inherited from the estate, will have to pay those back
taxes and interest.

That's useless. Really dumb.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 18:02:18 -0400, Bill wrote:

On 5/7/2021 3:28 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:41:36 -0400, Bill wrote:

On 5/7/2021 2:30 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:09:54 PM UTC-4, Bill wrote:
On 5/7/2021 1:57 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

On the other hand, if I don't trim, there is no danger of any mistakes
being made.

Don't be lazy. As far as mistakes go, the history inherent in the
newsgroups speaks for itself. Things have often been incorrectly
attributed to me in various newsgroups, and in the twenty-something
years I have been using them, nothing nefarious has ever resulted from
it. On the other hand, it bugs me when folks are too lazy to try to
trim at all. Especially, when it results in a subsequent message which
is nothing more than "Oh, me too".
--
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Well, we all have things that bug us in one way or another.

As I'm sure you know, you can continue to be bugged by something pretty
minor in the grand scheme of things, and that is out of your control (except
to mention it) or you can accept what's happening - and has been happening
for the 40+ years that usenet has been around - and allow yourself room
to be bugged by something more substantial.

Think "Serenity Prayer"

No, I do not accept that I can't help change this. There was one
particular "offender" whose name I won't mention except to say that it
was not you (so I was surprised that you got involved at all).

You can help change this by not posting anymore.



Ha, You recognized yourself! But, if you desire, I'll block/filter you.

Please do. You haven't had anything interesting to say for a long
time anyway. Only whining, lately.

And if you keep it up, even if you don't.

Bye.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 18:23:21 -0400, Bill wrote:


This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Thank you for bringing this to my attention! I wasn't aware that my
virus detection software started appending this message, and I apologize
for any inconvenience it may have caused others. I fully agree that
such a message just clutters up the forum, and I have taken the
necessary steps to re-configure the software. That's just the way I am.

Idiot. I didn't say anything about your shilling. You can't even
keep your replies straight, much less attributions.

Give it up, Bill. You're owned.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.

On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:


We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
not know what his costs will be next month
That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

SNIPP


A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
should be.
The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%

On Fri, 7 May 2021 15:17:35 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:
y.

We are looking at inventory growth from 2 different view points, so
let's just move on.

If you're convinced that that there is no shortage and that prices
are only up because consumers are willing to pay whatever the
builder asks, we can just leave it there.

Good talk.
A friend had to replace a 5550 sq ft deck. Couldn't do it last
summer/fall because there was no lumber available. He priced lumber
early this spring - it was high - and he wasn't sure whether to start
the job. The supplier said he had 21 to 30 days supply in stock - get
the old deck off and get the job done while there was guaranteen
availability - he anticipates supply getting tighter as the summer
approaches. - not as bad as last year because the price has tamped
down supply.

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.



IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
pay medical bills.

On 5/7/2021 5:17 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 5:59:50 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.

Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦


If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!


Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.

I thought you were.

Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.

Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.

There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.

Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.

While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.


What's going on in your area might not be the norm.

The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.

My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.

He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.

Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.

https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/





Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.

New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.

50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.

And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.

Record low inventory:

https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php

"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"

Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.

Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.

https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021

If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.




"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."

In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
after completion now.


And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.

https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly

"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."

I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
inventories are growing.

I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy.

However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
some numbers behind it.

Let's say I'm a wholesaler.

Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
the inability to purchase as much as I sold.

Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.

Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.

I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
better, but we are not out of the woods yet."
So this is not complicated..... Normally a supplier keeps "x" days of
supply on hand. This practice is to insure coverage in the event of a
shortage of availability. That has always happened and is not unique to
the times we are in. Computers sure mad this easier to calculate 40+
years ago in the automotive industry.

Anyway. Last year suppliers were running out completely. That was the
issue with the builders paying top dollar for the materials that they
were buying. And because suppliers had "X" days of supply this is why
the shortage did not show up until about mid year.

But now, in this general region of Texas there is no shortage of
supplies, it's just that the consumer and contractor costs have not yet
gone back to what they should. The only thing that will encourage
prices to go back down is for consumers to stop paying these inflated
prices and or more suppliers to come back on line to compete, some went
out of business.
Remember, competition keeps prices in check for the consumer.


You really don't need to see numbers, If a suppliers inventory is
growing, he is selling less than he can provide, plain and simple.
A growing inventory is typically one measured over several months, not a
spot check of dollar value today compared to yesterday or the week before.
I would suggest that once the supplier gets back to his normal days of
supply he will begin to lower his prices because too much inventory is
costly to the supplier.
There is a delicate balance between too much money sitting on the
shelves and not generating money because the shelf is empty.

We are looking at inventory growth from 2 different view points, so
let's just move on.

If you're convinced that that there is no shortage and that prices
are only up because consumers are willing to pay whatever the
builder asks, we can just leave it there.

Good talk.

LOL Got it. My son indicated last night that is some parts of the
country that some builders have simply quit building because of lack of
supply. So it must be a regional thing, there was never a slow down of
building in this area, in face, if anything home building increased last
and this year.

On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:


We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
not know what his costs will be next month


Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
certain had locked in material pricing in advance.




That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

SNIPP


A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
should be.
The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%

Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.

On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 10:29:38 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:


We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
not know what his costs will be next month
Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
certain had locked in material pricing in advance.

Maybe he had locked in material pricing in advance, just like you
locked in price on a new built in adavnce.

See below...

That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

SNIPP


A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
should be.
The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%
Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.

I know I said that I was moving on, but sometimes I just can't help
myself. ;-)

Your builder gave you a price and then cancelled, claiming
material shortages. Whether you believe that excuse or not,
the bottom line was that your contract was cancelled.

Would you be willing to the entertain the possibility that as
you work your way up the supply chain the same thing was
going on?

Builder/Buyer contracts were cancelled. That's a fact you
can't dispute because it happened to you.

Perhaps Mill/Builder contracts were also cancelled. You are
certain that Century Homes locked in a price in advance but
do you know - for certain - that that contract was honored?
Do you know - for certain - that Century Homes was actually
able to obtain the material at the locked in price?

Perhaps Logger/Mill contacts were cancelled. The Mill could
be telling the Builder the same thing that the Builder told the
Buyer (you): "Sorry, the loggers have raised our prices and we
can't honor your contract because we just can't supply the
material at that price and stay in business."

Perhaps the Logger is telling the Mill "Sorry we can't supply
the logs at that price and stay in business. Sue me if you want,
one way or the other I'm going to lose money so I'll take my
chances in court."

(Feel free to shorten the supply chain and assume that the
Logger and Mill s the same company. That won't really change
anything.)

On Fri, 07 May 2021 23:13:59 -0400, Clare Snyder
wrote:

On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"

As opposed to a "Democrat tax cut" or "No one making less that $400K
will see their tax increase.".

Very few times that is a good deal.

Never a good deal.

On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.



IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
pay medical bills.

Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.

Spalted Walt wrote:

DerbyDad03 wrote:

On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:

Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.

I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.

I'm not in the middle of it, so I only know what I read, which seems to dispute
your claim. What are you seeing/hearing/reading that indicates that there is
no shortage?

e.g. https://investorplace.com/2021/04/lu...s-are-soaring/

In addition, while new homes are certainly being built, how much has the price
increased due to reported lumber shortages? I've seen numbers that range from
$16K to $24K on average.

+1

Published: April 26, 2021
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/04/26/lumber-prices-drive-up-new-home-prices/

"HOUSTON €“ Homebuyers, builders, and even DIYers are shocked and stuck with crazy-high lumber prices. The
price of lumber has increased about 180% since last year."
[...]
"Hollins says most new home prices are going up by $30,000 to $40,000 to help builders cover the cost of
lumber. There are several reasons for the increase."

- May 7, 2021 -
3:30 - "Since last year the price of dimensional lumber has gone up by
almost 300%." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so3AAyogiVE&t=158s

On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:29:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 10:26 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 13:51:57 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:


We were in contract to build a new home in September of last year. We
locked in a price of $365K for a 3800 sq ft home. We would have been
closing right about now on the home and would have gained $70K equity.
The builder canceled all contracts on "to be built homes", claiming
material shortages.

The builder cancelled all contracts to protect his ass as he had NO
IDEA what his costs would be - and at this point he still really does
not know what his costs will be next month


Well that is the excuse that he used but he was willing to sell me the
same home 3 weeks later for and additional $16K.
And the builder was Century Homes. A relative large builder that I am
certain had locked in material pricing in advance.




That neighborhood is now about 2 years old, just over 18 months old
when we went into contract. There are double to triple the amount of
homes in that neighborhood in the last 6 months as the first 18 months.

So we were going to be buying a home that is now selling for $70K more
than what we went into contract for. Obviously there is no materials
shortages. And it appears obvious that the builder wanted to make and
sell the home for $70K extra himself.

SNIPP


A 25% increase in materials cost should not result in a 25% price
increase under normal circumstances. But these are unusual times where
the new to the game are willing to pay the price and unfortunately
likely to pay the consequence when home values go back to what they
should be.
The material cost increase is one heck of a lot more than 25%

Not in this circumstance. Again, as I stated above. Large builders
agree to buy "X" amount of materials from a supplier at a locked in
price. A very common practice by suppliers to guarantee inventory turn
over and to get discounts them selves from the mill.
"locking in" price doesn't guarantee supply and VERY FEW were able
to lock in enough to build like you claim your builder was building.

On 5/8/2021 12:53 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".Â*Â* That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
Â*Â* I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -Â* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.Â* A scenario like:Â* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.



IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
pay medical bills.

Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.


Easy to plan, just put the information into a spreadsheet.
Question 1. When are you going to die?

It get easier once you answer that.

On 5/7/2021 3:10 PM, Leon wrote:

Sooo Billlll.Â* Did you have anything to add to the actual discussion or
did you just want to add noise.

When I was a little boy, my dad told me it was okay to use the tools,
but to put them away when I was done with them. I think that it is
evident who got a lesson like that in simple courtesy from the way that
they post. Anyhow, that's the part of the story that this thread
rekindled in my mind. Carry on...

Bill (just 2 "els")

On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.



IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
pay medical bills.
Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.

One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:

Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.

When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
income and expenses as shown below.

Estimate your pre-tax retirement expenses vs. your pre-tax retirement
income. Based on those numbers, determine the annual pre-tax drawdown
from your retirement funds. (IRA's, 401(k), brokerage accounts, etc.)

Using pre-tax values for everything keeps things consistent. e.g. that
$3000 property tax payment is an after-tax number that will require
more than $3000 in pre-tax income.

(Pre-tax living expenses) - (Pre-tax income) = (Pre-Tax Portfolio drawdown)

Based on your feelings on the market (risk tolerance) choose a number
of years, e.g. 6. Multiply your annual drawdown amount by that number.
Put that amount of your retirement assets in stable investments,
e.g. bond funds, etc. Call these your "buckets of income", of which
you now have 6.

When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
equities alone. When the market rebounds (it *always* does) refill your
buckets to get back up to six years.

This process should allow you to never have to withdraw money from the
equities when they are down. I'm not suggesting that you don't *trade*
equities when they are down. You just don't want to sell at a loss and
withdraw the money. Tax loss harvesting, moving to something that
may rebound faster, etc. are valid reasons to sell equities when they
are down as long as you also buy replacement equities when they are
also down.

Why did I use 6 years? Take a look at history of the equity market. How
many reversals do you see that lasted more than 6 years? With 6 years
worth of buckets, you should never have to sell equities and realize a loss
by going to cash. If your risk tolerance is high, shorten the number of
years. 4 or 5 buckets might be enough for you to feel comfortable.
Maybe you feel like you need 8 -10. It's your choice.

The goal is to remove the emotion/stress that often occurs during
equity market reversals. If you know that you have X years of income
in fairly stable assets, you can ignore the volatility of the equity market
or use it to your advantage. Hopefully you can avoid making the
biggest mistake any investor can make: "I can't take it anymore. I'm
selling everything and will wait until the market recovers to get
back in." That shouldn't happen if you know that you have X number
of years of income that is remaining fairly stable.

Assume an average growth rate for your portfolio, assume some
inflation, adjust the annual drawdown for one-off situations in the
years that they will occur (paying off the mortgage, paying for a
wedding, that Shaper Origin, etc.) It's not an exact science. There
will be things that you can't plan for. Accept it. Some plan is usually
better than no plan.

This is not a one-time set-it-and-forget strategy. It requires review
and adjustments, probably at least annually.

If you can set up a plan that allows you to withdraw the projected
amounts without running out of money until age 100 (or whatever
age you chose) you should be able to rest easy. If not, you need to
take a hard look at your budget.

Get it right and you can bounce the check to the undertaker. ;-)

On 5/9/2021 2:05 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
equities alone. When the market rebounds (it*always* does) refill your
buckets to get back up to six years.

Huh?

We're withdrawing from the "stable" buckets either way...

In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
losing ground in purchasing power besides.

--

On Sunday, May 9, 2021 at 4:43:18 PM UTC-4, dpb wrote:
On 5/9/2021 2:05 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
equities alone. When the market rebounds (it*always* does) refill your
buckets to get back up to six years.
Huh?

We're withdrawing from the "stable" buckets either way...

Yes, that's because many people simply set up a monthly "paycheck"
from the same fund every month. Then every few months or maybe
annually they refill from the equities - assuming that they are up. If
not, then wait. We're talking about not selling equities for income in
times like early 2020 or during the 2007 - 2008 reversal when they
tanked. It's a process. Of course, if you need a big chunk and equities
are up, there nothing saying you can't sell and withdraw directly from
the equities. I'm talking about long term portfolio management.


In the current interest climate, there's essentially no "stable bucket"
that even makes the current (relatively) low inflation rate so you're
losing ground in purchasing power besides.


That is not true. There are indeed bond funds that are still making
more than inflation. If you look hard enough or have a financial
advisor that knows where to look, there is still money that can be
made in bonds. Managed products, not index funds.

Are you suggesting that you should have no "stable assets" in your
portfolio and rely solely on the equity market for all withdrawals?

On Sun, 9 May 2021 00:30:57 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/8/2021 12:53 PM, wrote:
On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!".** That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
** I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy -* but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly.* A scenario like:* I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.



IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
pay medical bills.

Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.


Easy to plan, just put the information into a spreadsheet.
Question 1. When are you going to die?

That's what makes it hard. I'd told her that I wanted her to spend it
all. It wasn't mine to spend. She did a pretty good job.

It get easier once you answer that.

It would be handy to know what the cost of living/inflation will be
for the next 20-30 years too.

On Sun, 9 May 2021 12:05:07 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:

On Saturday, May 8, 2021 at 12:53:42 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Sat, 8 May 2021 09:19:50 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/7/2021 10:13 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Fri, 7 May 2021 14:17:36 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/6/2021 11:49 AM, wrote:
On Thu, 6 May 2021 09:13:19 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/5/2021 2:01 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 5 May 2021 08:30:29 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 8:07 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 13:35:40 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/4/2021 10:41 AM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Tue, 4 May 2021 10:16:44 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:

On 5/3/2021 8:34 AM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
On 5/2/2021 8:32 PM, Clare Snyder wrote:
On Sun, 2 May 2021 17:44:19 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 5/2/2021 4:42 PM, Bill wrote:
On 5/2/2021 3:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Their offer was accepted, not just based on the offer price, but also
based on the appraisal clause. Another offer also had an escalation
clause that maxed out at $410K, but the appraisal clause was only
$13K above the appraisal value, $2K less than their offer. That was
close!

I'll assume my previous message has been read. Color my cynical but all
I have to say is "what a coincidence!". That said, I congratulate the
buyers on their new home. The way property is appreciating, it will
surely be a great investment in the long run, and you can live in
it!


I wonder in 3 to 5 years if the house price today will still be a good
investment when interest rates are back up.
I'm betting there will be a lot of people with upside down mortgages
in 5 to 10 years in several areas of the country. Our area is less
likely to see it than many others due to our resiliant economy - but
%7 would definitely be painfull for MANY buyers - even here.


Exactly. A scenario like: I paid 500k for this house, owe 400k and the
highest offer is 300k.

Live there long enough and you are ok, but if you have to relocate, you
are screwed.


This is what is happening now. It will be interesting to see how many
people will be upside down in 2~5 Years.


I paid $63700 39 years ago. That is about $170,000 in 2021 dollars. I
assumed a 6.3% mortgage when the going rate was 23% - 18% if you were
lucky and had an 800 credit score.

40 years and 4 months ago my wife and I paid 60K. 30 years, 12%
interest in Jan 1981 Refinanced 6 years later for 9% for 15 years. We
accelerated the payments after refinance and paid the mortgage off Feb,
1997.

When we first started (July) looking for our first home ('82, I think)
we were looking at 18% interest. We bought in September, with a 14%
30-year mortgage. A couple of years later we re-fi'd to 8%. We paid
$60K.

I recall mortgage rates going up to 18 % shortly after we closed at 12%



Estimated value today $164K. $98K 10 years ago when we sold.

Ours is now $304K (Zillow).

Cash for the next home in 2010.

I wish. The next house was in VT. We paid $150 and sold 14 years
later ('07) for $300. It's now $404. Last I looked the taxes were
$8K but it's not listed now.

Farkin taxes! You can afford to buy a home but can one afford to pay
the taxes on it.

We moved from VT to AL. We bought there for about the same as the
house in VT for ($300K). Taxes, close to $4K. It was about 1.5x the
size and *far* nicer. SWMBO loved the kitchen. She was rather ****ed
when we moved here.

When we asked the RE agent about property tax, she said $1200, maybe
$1500. Wife asked "is that half year", quite seriously. The RE agent
looked at her like she had a third eye.

That wasn't in rural AL, either. It's major employer was Auburn
University. Football weekends were nuts - corporate jets by the dozens
(and dozens) flying in from all over and Class-A motorhomes by the
hundreds, standing ear to in the tailgating area for the weekend.
There is a lot of money among Auburn alum and they show it.

Anyway, we moved here and the taxes are now $3K after about a 30%
discount for being over 65. In this county, school taxes go away
completely after 72. Other counties forgive it at 65. GA is a very
retiree friendly state. Essentially, there is no state income tax on
retirement (pensions, IRA withdrawals, SS, etc.).


That was when people WERE upside-down on their mortgages in a lot of
cases because of the 1980s recession with high rates causing prices to
drop. My MIL was in real estate in Windsor and people were walking
away from $800000 homes. Sadly for Windsor some of those homes are
still not worth very much more than that - - -

The dangers of ARMs. Without enough equity there's no way to
refinance when the interest rate climbs. Same problem in '07-'11.


We almost went with an ARM in 2010. It was locked in for 5 years. We
were only going to borrow about 20K, just to give us some kush after
moving in. We would have paid it off within the next couple of years so
the rate would not have ever gone up on us. But we decided to go all
cash to get and additional 3% discount off of the negotiated sale price.

An ARM in 2010 probably would have been so bad. The neutron bomb had
already been dropped by then.

I remember you buying that house. Have I really been around here that
long?



You should check out Arkansas property taxes.. :~)

Hundreds od dollars vs. thousands.

Swingman has a home in West University TX and a home in Hot Springs AR.
The AR home is certainly smaller than the West U home but not 40 times
smaller. IIRC $24K per year vs.
$6 hundred.

$24K/yr?!! I bet he didn't like Trump's middle class tax reduction
much.


I think he was participating in the over 65 exemption and not paying lately.

He is trying to sell now and probably regretting the exemption now.

That exemption costs you the tax owed plus 8% per year.
In other words its a "republican exemption" - AKA a "deferral"
Very few times that is a good deal.



IMHO only really good if you have no heirs and your money is running out.
Sort'a like some life insurance policies that pay before you die to help
pay medical bills.
Or reverse mortgages. If I plan perfectly, there will be nothing for
my heirs. It's the planning part that hard.

One planning method that many retirees have employed goes like this:

Plan for age 100. More and more of us are going to make it that far.
Adjust as desired for your own specific situation. It's your plan.

When looking at your retirement portfolio, forget about a 60-40 split or
the old school "Put your age in bonds". Instead, use your own actual
income and expenses as shown below.

I'm not so enamored with bonds anymore. Too many games being played
and they seem to be in-phase with stocks now. Makes no sense (in more
than one sense of the word).

Estimate your pre-tax retirement expenses vs. your pre-tax retirement
income. Based on those numbers, determine the annual pre-tax drawdown
from your retirement funds. (IRA's, 401(k), brokerage accounts, etc.)

I'm not sure I follow that. I get the pre-tax part. I'm looking more
at my post-retirement income vs. pre-retirement income. I'll have (a
bit) fewer expenses too.

You're above formula sounds like the draw down depends on expenses, no
matter what. It seems that one has to figure on how long one is going
to live and live within that.

The 4% rule sounds good but the brokerage advisor (when I rolled over
one 401K) said that was high, now. Well, interest is 0+delta so,
yeah, 4% is high. I have to contact him again. I may have him take
care of my account. The cost really isn't bad. .5%, IIRC (Fidelity).

Using pre-tax values for everything keeps things consistent. e.g. that
$3000 property tax payment is an after-tax number that will require
more than $3000 in pre-tax income.

(Pre-tax living expenses) - (Pre-tax income) = (Pre-Tax Portfolio drawdown)

I see where you're going here. I'm looking at what I'm making now vs
what I'll have then. I'm close with a "reasonable" draw-down.

Based on your feelings on the market (risk tolerance) choose a number
of years, e.g. 6. Multiply your annual drawdown amount by that number.
Put that amount of your retirement assets in stable investments,
e.g. bond funds, etc. Call these your "buckets of income", of which
you now have 6.

Yeah, I see where this is going.

When the market is doing well, withdraw the required money from your
stable buckets and re-fill them from the equity side. When the market is
doing poorly, withdraw the money from the stable side and leave the
equities alone. When the market rebounds (it *always* does) refill your
buckets to get back up to six years.

I was thinking a little differently. Stocks, bonds (maybe), cash,
commodities, and foreign. Depending on what's going good, draw down
from there (once a year). Stock are obvious. Bonds are supposed to
be out-of-phase but they aren't anymore. Cash in case nothing is
working. Commodities for crashes and foreign for dollar fluctuations.

This process should allow you to never have to withdraw money from the
equities when they are down. I'm not suggesting that you don't *trade*
equities when they are down. You just don't want to sell at a loss and
withdraw the money. Tax loss harvesting, moving to something that
may rebound faster, etc. are valid reasons to sell equities when they
are down as long as you also buy replacement equities when they are
also down.

Gotcha. I've already been thinking. I'd never heard anyone else
suggest this. It seems to be a no-brainer.

Why did I use 6 years? Take a look at history of the equity market. How
many reversals do you see that lasted more than 6 years? With 6 years
worth of buckets, you should never have to sell equities and realize a loss
by going to cash. If your risk tolerance is high, shorten the number of
years. 4 or 5 buckets might be enough for you to feel comfortable.
Maybe you feel like you need 8 -10. It's your choice.

Things have changed (more fiddling with the market) and that's going
to backfire, IMO.

The goal is to remove the emotion/stress that often occurs during
equity market reversals. If you know that you have X years of income
in fairly stable assets, you can ignore the volatility of the equity market
or use it to your advantage. Hopefully you can avoid making the
biggest mistake any investor can make: "I can't take it anymore. I'm
selling everything and will wait until the market recovers to get
back in." That shouldn't happen if you know that you have X number
of years of income that is remaining fairly stable.

Yes. I see that.

Assume an average growth rate for your portfolio, assume some
inflation, adjust the annual drawdown for one-off situations in the
years that they will occur (paying off the mortgage, paying for a
wedding, that Shaper Origin, etc.) It's not an exact science. There
will be things that you can't plan for. Accept it. Some plan is usually
better than no plan.

Understood. Mortgage is paid but there are roofs to buy and all that.
Lotsa Origin class stuff.

Really, there aren't many toys that I want left to buy. ...or won't
be by then. I want a better DC (HEPA) but we'll see.

This is not a one-time set-it-and-forget strategy. It requires review
and adjustments, probably at least annually.

Like doing taxes.

If you can set up a plan that allows you to withdraw the projected
amounts without running out of money until age 100 (or whatever
age you chose) you should be able to rest easy. If not, you need to
take a hard look at your budget.'

The old standby 4% withdrawal is intended for the money to last
forever, indexed for inflation. Living forever seems a little
conservative but it's a data point. Even 4% puts me in good shape,
now. Given that the state doesn't tax retirement income, it'll put me
where I am now. That is, give or take Medicare. Medicare is still
unclear but I'm getting there. It's almost like the rules were
written by movement or something.

My retirement part of it is a complete mystery. It makes no sense and
seems contradictory depending on where I look. Some of the links on
the site are broken, as well. Not a good thing considering it's IBM.
;-)

Get it right and you can bounce the check to the undertaker. ;-)

That's the plan. Execution (NPI) of that plan is the problem.