On 5/7/2021 2:49 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Friday, May 7, 2021 at 2:52:06 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/6/2021 12:12 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Thursday, May 6, 2021 at 10:37:28 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 10:03 AM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Wednesday, May 5, 2021 at 10:45:46 AM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/5/2021 8:57 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/4/2021 9:48 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
On Tuesday, May 4, 2021 at 6:30:47 PM UTC-4, Leon wrote:
On 5/4/2021 10:09 AM, Scott Lurndal wrote:
Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet writes:
On 5/3/2021 8:52 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 3 May 2021 18:10:26 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet wrote:
On 5/2/2021 2:43 PM, DerbyDad03 wrote:
What a crazy housing market this is! My #1 son and his GF just
found out that their offer has been accepted.
Here is how houses are being bought these days€¦
If the house appraises at the $410K level, they will end up paying $55K
(15%) over the listing price. Holy crap!
Not a good idea to buy a home for the time being. Prices are going
crazy and for no good reason. It is a fluke.
I thought you were.
Yes we were. No longer. The home we went into contract for in late
September, $365K is not welling for $430K. Almost 10K per month price
increases in the last 7 months.
Our home went up in value, in the past 7 months, from $232K to $274K.
There is a "reason". Whether it is good or not depends on whether you
are buying or selling.
Lack of supply, high demand.
Lack of supply was a temporary fluke. Building supplies are readily
available. Homes are being built at a record rate in my area. Demand
is up but supply has not been an issue since summer of last year.
While economics has a theory for supply and demand, this ain't that. It
is greed and demand. The builders are saying, lets see how much these
people will pay.
What's going on in your area might not be the norm.
The lack of supply appears to relate to both existing homes and building
supplies.
My son is a RE agent in Las Vegas. He tells me that they usually have a 6
month of supply of houses in their listings. Currently, it's less than a month.
He, my daughter and my other son have all been on the buying side of the
market in the last 6 months. NY, NV and IN. Finding a house wasn't easy in
any of those areas. They all paid a lot more than they would have just a few
years ago due to the lack of supply.
Now, as to building new, these articles were written in March 2021. They both
discuss a shortage of wood and the associated price increase of (and delay in)
getting a house built.
https://www.businessinsider.com/real...ruction-2021-3
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/03/29/...ces-skyrocket/
Well I am certain different locations will be different but in San
Antonio and Houston, there is no shortage of building materials. Never
really was except for a brief period last year, just like groceries were.
New homes/new neighborhoods are going up at a shocking rate. There is a
new neighborhood, being built by Meritage homes, across the street from
our subdivision. This was in the plans a couple of years ago, a 130
home community, buy there was just an empty field of grass in December.
Now there are streets and a model is going up along with 6 spec homes.
Another near by neighborhood that will likely have a thousand homes
started a couple of months earlier in October, also in a grass covered
field. The are probably 40 or 50 new homes in that location now. And
the one we were going to have a home built in has probably built 50
homes since October.
50 homes in the Houston metro area isn't even in the noise....
No kidding, the real number is probably 100 times that. I was just
talking about within a 5 minute drive from our home. You cannot drive
any where, in only the west Houston area, with out seeing 5~10 new
neighborhoods that were not there a year ago.
And I am not saying that our market for new homes is the hottest, just
that there is no shortage of materials to build these homes.
Record low inventory:
https://www.noradarealestate.com/blo...estate-market/
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...p-15852599.php
"\u201cI\u2019ve got more buyers than I have homes to sell them,\u201d said Shad Bogany, a
broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene in Houston. \u201cWe just don\u2019t have the inventory.\u201d"
Supply and Demand indeed.
Supply of new homes yes, supply of materials NO. So there is really no
reason for material prices to be as high as they are.
I curious as to why you continue to say that there is no shortage of materials,
when it's really easy to find current articles (like as of last week) that say that
there is. I'm asking, not arguing.
Articles are, well, are probably out dated before they are published.
Granted, many informational type articles may be outdated, but how about
the comments of industry professionals e.,g. purchasing managers and
builders associations? This information was published in April 2021 and
both claim that the shortages continue.
https://shepleywood.com/news/lumber-...pdate-may-2021
If you don't have to lower your price..... Lumber prices are still high
but do not need to be. There is no shortage, just a killing to be made.
"The record rally continues, with lumber and plywood pricing climbing to new
heights. Despite the soaring prices, demand continues to outpace supply
and shortages in just about every building material category have created
an abundance of delays for contractors. With the exception of a few brief
pauses, prices have been slowly escalating into record territory for more
than six months now, begging the question of when it will end. The answer
is when demand tapers off, but no one sees an end coming any time soon."
In our area and ins San Antonio Tx I cannot agree. Homes being build by
the thousands are not presold, builders are only selling spec homes
after completion now.
And a letter from the National Association of Home Builders, written in April 2021.
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/n...e-misleadingly
"The primary reason why lumber prices have tripled over the past 12 months --
going from roughly $350 per thousand board feet to nearly $1,200, according
to Random Lengths €“ is due to insufficient production. Moreover, supply
shortages have caused the price of other building materials to rise over
the last year as well; OSB prices are up more than 400 percent since last
April. ... But the action that will have the greatest impact by far is for
domestic lumber producers and sawmills to take immediate steps to
boost production and end supply-side bottlenecks that are harming
American home buyers, home builders, and the many other industries
that rely on lumber products."
I just got an industry newsletter today indicating that wholesale
inventories are growing.
I've read everything you've said (above and below) and it is noteworthy.
However, that "inventory" statement doesn't mean very much without
some numbers behind it.
Let's say I'm a wholesaler.
Let's say my inventory historically averaged 4000 sheets of OSB per
month for the 5 years prior to the pandemic. That average always
kept pace with my demand (orders from builders). Then over the
past year, it sold down to averaging 2000 sheets per month due to
the inability to purchase as much as I sold.
Now, over the past 2 months, I've been able to get a few more sheets,
so now I'm averaging 2500 sheets in inventory per month.
Relatively speaking, it's true that my "inventories are growing", but
only when compared to the trailing 12 months. They are still down
compared to historic norms and I still cannot keep up with my demand.
I'm not saying that the shortage is or isn't over nor am I disputing the
fact that "inventories are growing". All I'm saying is that without seeing
the numbers behind that statement I have no way of knowing if it's
equivalent to "The problem has been eliminated" or "Things are getting
better, but we are not out of the woods yet."
So this is not complicated..... Normally a supplier keeps "x" days of
supply on hand. This practice is to insure coverage in the event of a
shortage of availability. That has always happened and is not unique to
the times we are in. Computers sure mad this easier to calculate 40+
years ago in the automotive industry.
Anyway. Last year suppliers were running out completely. That was the
issue with the builders paying top dollar for the materials that they
were buying. And because suppliers had "X" days of supply this is why
the shortage did not show up until about mid year.
But now, in this general region of Texas there is no shortage of
supplies, it's just that the consumer and contractor costs have not yet
gone back to what they should. The only thing that will encourage
prices to go back down is for consumers to stop paying these inflated
prices and or more suppliers to come back on line to compete, some went
out of business.
Remember, competition keeps prices in check for the consumer.
You really don't need to see numbers, If a suppliers inventory is
growing, he is selling less than he can provide, plain and simple.
A growing inventory is typically one measured over several months, not a
spot check of dollar value today compared to yesterday or the week before.
I would suggest that once the supplier gets back to his normal days of
supply he will begin to lower his prices because too much inventory is
costly to the supplier.
There is a delicate balance between too much money sitting on the
shelves and not generating money because the shelf is empty.