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#81
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
wrote in message
... On Tuesday, 23 June 2015 22:58:13 UTC+1, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Monday, 22 June 2015 21:51:09 UTC+1, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Monday, 22 June 2015 20:40:40 UTC+1, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Sunday, 21 June 2015 23:20:25 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote: My house was built and wired in the 1980s and has an old-style fuse box. Is there really a significant increase in electrical safety with the modern RCD units? There are 20 something deaths from shock a year, mostly due to people doing idiotic things. RCDs reduce the risk. This is a long way down the list of Risky Things in Life, so is the oposite of a priority. So what what would you prioritize? Look at the top 10 killers. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lead...s-of-death.htm The top 2 are heart disease & cancer. They kill half the population. Expert concensus is half these deaths are readily avoidable by healthier eating, not smoking & some exercise. These are the number 1 priorities. A lifesyle choice is not relevant to diy or general risks in the house. Risks and the cost of avoiding them are 100% relevant to risks and the cost of avoiding them I do not consider telling a fat ******* to eat less less food to be DIY related. Fitting a lock on a fridge is DIY related. So what. A DIY safety improvement is only worth doing if its not way down the list of what one can usefully do. RCDs have their upside, but at 20 something deaths versus over 100,000 a year they're just not the priority. Eat healthily, learn advanced driving, treat infections promptly & vigilantly, take proper precautions with power tools and so on. If all those plus dozens of others are done, then an RCD becomes worthwhile. Funny how so many think electricity & gas a big risk, when really the most dangerous things we do are food shopping & smoking. What is not so funny is how many people do not realise how dangerous electrcity is. It takes 20 to 30 years of smoking or shoveling chips down a big fat gob to cause the damage. If they cannot see what is coming then it is their problem - the NHS spend a fortune on preventative medicine and yet people still live unhealthy lifestyles. Electricity is unseen and kills in less than a second and may not be the fault of the person that is killed. The IET have decided that RCD protection is the future. It's not expensive and it saves lives - so much so that there are thousands of people who did not receive the smallest of shocks when the RCD operated saving them from becoming a minor statistic. -- Adam |
#82
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
John Rumm wrote:
On 22/06/2015 09:56, Jim x321x wrote: John Rumm wrote in : with the existing setup, and I rarely get any inexplicable tripping of the circuit breakers. As far as I am aware, the old fuse boxes (even when fuses contained fuse wire) did what they were designed to do, with no problems. They did what they were supposed to - and will still do so. The main thing your current setup lacks is RCD protection. Thanks to all for the excellently helpful advice. If I added an RCD covering the entire house (without replacing the existing fuse box which is already fitted with MCBs, would that constitute a change to the wiring and thus require building control notification? Firstly you don't want a single RCD covering the whole house - that is a practice that was common during the 15th edition, but is deprecated now since it offers no "discrimination" in the event of a fault (i.e. the fault will take out the supply to the whole house, not just the circuit causing the problem). So many circuits on one RCD are also more prone to nuisance tripping in the first place. Changing a CU is "notifiable", although if done right no one is going to whinge if you don't. Would doing this significantly improve the house's safety rating in the eyes of, say, a house-purchaser's surveyor? Only if the purchaser is sufficiently clued up. You may find an older CU etc would be commented on during a survey, but only in as much as the surveyor might comment that you could get an electrical report if concerned. So if your only reason for the change is to make the house more saleable, I would not bother. If however you are planning to carry on living there, then its worth it (IMHO) for other reasons. Just sold my house and survey recommended an electrical report, changing the old fused CU was the result... (There was a hairline crack on the unit as well, which didn't help) |
#83
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
"cupra" wrote in message
... John Rumm wrote: On 22/06/2015 09:56, Jim x321x wrote: John Rumm wrote in : with the existing setup, and I rarely get any inexplicable tripping of the circuit breakers. As far as I am aware, the old fuse boxes (even when fuses contained fuse wire) did what they were designed to do, with no problems. They did what they were supposed to - and will still do so. The main thing your current setup lacks is RCD protection. Thanks to all for the excellently helpful advice. If I added an RCD covering the entire house (without replacing the existing fuse box which is already fitted with MCBs, would that constitute a change to the wiring and thus require building control notification? Firstly you don't want a single RCD covering the whole house - that is a practice that was common during the 15th edition, but is deprecated now since it offers no "discrimination" in the event of a fault (i.e. the fault will take out the supply to the whole house, not just the circuit causing the problem). So many circuits on one RCD are also more prone to nuisance tripping in the first place. Changing a CU is "notifiable", although if done right no one is going to whinge if you don't. Would doing this significantly improve the house's safety rating in the eyes of, say, a house-purchaser's surveyor? Only if the purchaser is sufficiently clued up. You may find an older CU etc would be commented on during a survey, but only in as much as the surveyor might comment that you could get an electrical report if concerned. So if your only reason for the change is to make the house more saleable, I would not bother. If however you are planning to carry on living there, then its worth it (IMHO) for other reasons. Just sold my house and survey recommended an electrical report, changing the old fused CU was the result... (There was a hairline crack on the unit as well, which didn't help) -- Adam |
#84
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
What is not so funny is how many people do not realise how dangerous
electrcity is. It takes 20 to 30 years of smoking or shoveling chips down a big fat gob to cause the damage. If they cannot see what is coming then it is their problem - the NHS spend a fortune on preventative medicine and yet people still live unhealthy lifestyles. Electricity is unseen and kills in less than a second and may not be the fault of the person that is killed. The IET have decided that RCD protection is the future. It's not expensive and it saves lives - so much so that there are thousands of people who did not receive the smallest of shocks when the RCD operated saving them from becoming a minor statistic. I wish they were in common use around 35 years ago when I got "stuck" across live to a less than correct earth on a metal handled drill;(... Remember it to this day still, the pain and not being able to do anything about it and that terror that this was going be my last day alive! -- Tony Sayer |
#85
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
"Robin" wrote in message
... John Rumm wrote: Probably depends on the area of the country... I would have thought a straight swap would start at 200 - 300. I think that'd be v much the bottom of the range in London now the trade has picked up again. And then there are the "extras" like one place near here told they needed *separate* main bonding for incoming gas and water. There was 10mm looped continuously MET-water-gas but the nice man even showed them the picture in his little book to prove they needed to be separate The word "******" springs to mind. -- Adam |
#86
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Wednesday, 24 June 2015 10:59:29 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote:
Can someone tell me if I can get away with a 45A MCB for a 8.5kW shower without endagering life and limb? The manual tells me to use a 40A one, but I just happen to have a 45A one. I ask, because those things aren't cheap. Probably, as you're not relying on the MCB for overload protection (as the load is fixed and unlikely to draw a higher than rated current), merely for short circuit in the event of fault. What is the cable size an mounting method.? Owain |
#87
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
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#88
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Friday, 26 June 2015 09:12:55 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote:
It's a 6mm^ T&E cable that is surface mounted all the way to the 8.5kW shower. (about 4ft goes through surface-mounted conduit. 6mm clipped direct is ok for about 47A. The only risk is that someone at a later date might see the 45A MCB and think it's okay to put a higher-rated shower on it without calculating for the 6mm cable size. I'd leave the 45A MCB in and label accordingly. Owain |
#89
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
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#91
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 24/06/2015 10:59, Jim x321x wrote:
Harry Bloomfield wrote in : Every 10 minutes to an hour the RCD would trip out, leaving everyone in complete darkness down there. Try explaining to a site agaent that the risk of electrocution on a 55v to ground system is considerably less than the risk of someone being seriously injured, with it tripping so regularly leaving everyone in such circumstances in complete darkness, feeling for the ladder to climb out. Sounds like a classic case of the 'Peter Pricipal' at play! Can someone tell me if I can get away with a 45A MCB for a 8.5kW shower without endagering life and limb? The manual tells me to use a 40A one, but I just happen to have a 45A one. I ask, because those things aren't cheap. Yes... the purpose of the MCB is really to give adequate fault protection to the cable. You can use the adiabatic check to make sure you meet that objective. -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#92
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 26/06/2015 09:12, Jim x321x wrote:
wrote in : On Wednesday, 24 June 2015 10:59:29 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote: Can someone tell me if I can get away with a 45A MCB for a 8.5kW shower without endagering life and limb? The manual tells me to use a 40A one, but I just happen to have a 45A one. I ask, because those things aren't cheap. Probably, as you're not relying on the MCB for overload protection (as the load is fixed and unlikely to draw a higher than rated current), merely for short circuit in the event of fault. What is the cable size an mounting method.? Owain It's a 6mm^ T&E cable that is surface mounted all the way to the 8.5kW shower. (about 4ft goes through surface-mounted conduit. Most of that is Method C, but the section of trunking means you need to treat it all as Method B. That gives the cable a continuous rating of 38A. Your design current is 8500 / 230 = 37A, so you are ok there (just). Let's assume you are TN-C-S, and we will take the default 0.35 ohms as the supply & EL impedance. The cable round trip resistance will be 6.16 mOhms / metre. Did you say the total run was 12m? If so that gives a total round trip (by calculation - may be lower by measurement) 0.35 + 12 x 0.00616 = 0.42 ohms. That gives a prospective fault current of 230 / 0.42 = 542A. The 0.1ms trip threshold for a B type MCB is 5x In, or 5 x 45 = 225A in this case. So we are safely into the magnetic or "instant" response part of the curve for the MCB. For piece of mind, treat the design as a non RCD one (even though a RCD is required for other reasons), and ensure the fault withstand capability of the cable is ok with that (nice to know the able won't fail if the RCD does): s = sqrt( 542^2 x 0.1 ) / 115 = 1.5mm^2 of CPC required (you have 2.5mm^2 of CPC in a 6mm^ T&E, so that is ok as well). (where 115 is the k factor for PVC clad cable) So based on a few assumptions - you are good to go. You will have no overload protection for the cable, but that is not required in this case due to the nature of the load. -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#93
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
On 23/06/2015 22:52, tn wrote: On Tuesday, 23 June 2015 17:20:21 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 22/06/2015 21:51, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Monday, 22 June 2015 20:40:40 UTC+1, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Sunday, 21 June 2015 23:20:25 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote: My house was built and wired in the 1980s and has an old-style fuse box. Is there really a significant increase in electrical safety with the modern RCD units? There are 20 something deaths from shock a year, mostly due to people doing idiotic things. RCDs reduce the risk. This is a long way down the list of Risky Things in Life, so is the oposite of a priority. So what what would you prioritize? Look at the top 10 killers. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lead...s-of-death.htm The top 2 are heart disease & cancer. They kill half the population. Expert concensus is half these deaths are readily avoidable by healthier eating, not smoking & some exercise. These are the number 1 priorities. A lifesyle choice is not relevant to diy or general risks in the house. Not only that, as had been pointed out at various times, one insures against losses that one can't otherwise replace. I would include wife and children in that category, so a one off premium of a couple of hundred for smoke alarms and RCDs sounds like a very worthwhile investment. 2 different issues lumped together, Smoke alarms and RCDs are different - however the risks associated with not having either are comparable (although injury from fires per years are far fewer than from electric shock). 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. and a non sequitur. Explain I already have. I've shown how I assessed whether RCDs were worth fitting. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, plus placed it in the list of available risk reductions, thereby determining if its a priority or whether there are far bigger priorities. Yours has so far been an assessment of the risk followed by an illogical conclusion. Unfortunately the approach you've shown is common today. It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. NT |
#94
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
John Rumm wrote in
o.uk: Subject: Do I need to update my house's fuse box? From: John Rumm Newsgroups: uk.d-i-y On 26/06/2015 09:12, Jim x321x wrote: wrote in : On Wednesday, 24 June 2015 10:59:29 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote: Can someone tell me if I can get away with a 45A MCB for a 8.5kW shower without endagering life and limb? The manual tells me to use a 40A one, but I just happen to have a 45A one. I ask, because those things aren't cheap. Probably, as you're not relying on the MCB for overload protection (as the load is fixed and unlikely to draw a higher than rated current), merely for short circuit in the event of fault. What is the cable size an mounting method.? Owain It's a 6mm^ T&E cable that is surface mounted all the way to the 8.5kW shower. (about 4ft goes through surface-mounted conduit. Most of that is Method C, but the section of trunking means you need to treat it all as Method B. That gives the cable a continuous rating of 38A. Your design current is 8500 / 230 = 37A, so you are ok there (just). Let's assume you are TN-C-S, and we will take the default 0.35 ohms as the supply & EL impedance. The cable round trip resistance will be 6.16 mOhms / metre. Did you say the total run was 12m? If so that gives a total round trip (by calculation - may be lower by measurement) 0.35 + 12 x 0.00616 = 0.42 ohms. That gives a prospective fault current of 230 / 0.42 = 542A. The 0.1ms trip threshold for a B type MCB is 5x In, or 5 x 45 = 225A in this case. So we are safely into the magnetic or "instant" response part of the curve for the MCB. For piece of mind, treat the design as a non RCD one (even though a RCD is required for other reasons), and ensure the fault withstand capability of the cable is ok with that (nice to know the able won't fail if the RCD does): s = sqrt( 542^2 x 0.1 ) / 115 = 1.5mm^2 of CPC required (you have 2.5mm^2 of CPC in a 6mm^ T&E, so that is ok as well). (where 115 is the k factor for PVC clad cable) So based on a few assumptions - you are good to go. You will have no overload protection for the cable, but that is not required in this case due to the nature of the load. Many thanks for the detailed reply. So what would be the ideal rating of MCB to use? I just ordered a 40A one, because that's what the shower manual recommends. The 45A one I had wasn't ideal because it wasn't a Wylex one, and didn't fit without removing the base plate. Jim |
#95
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Fri, 26 Jun 2015 11:54:47 -0700, tabbypurr wrote:
On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 23/06/2015 22:52, tn wrote: On Tuesday, 23 June 2015 17:20:21 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 22/06/2015 21:51, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Monday, 22 June 2015 20:40:40 UTC+1, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Sunday, 21 June 2015 23:20:25 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote: My house was built and wired in the 1980s and has an old-style fuse box. Is there really a significant increase in electrical safety with the modern RCD units? There are 20 something deaths from shock a year, mostly due to people doing idiotic things. RCDs reduce the risk. This is a long way down the list of Risky Things in Life, so is the oposite of a priority. So what what would you prioritize? Look at the top 10 killers. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lead...s-of-death.htm The top 2 are heart disease & cancer. They kill half the population. Expert concensus is half these deaths are readily avoidable by healthier eating, not smoking & some exercise. These are the number 1 priorities. A lifesyle choice is not relevant to diy or general risks in the house. Not only that, as had been pointed out at various times, one insures against losses that one can't otherwise replace. I would include wife and children in that category, so a one off premium of a couple of hundred for smoke alarms and RCDs sounds like a very worthwhile investment. 2 different issues lumped together, Smoke alarms and RCDs are different - however the risks associated with not having either are comparable (although injury from fires per years are far fewer than from electric shock). 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. and a non sequitur. Explain I already have. I've shown how I assessed whether RCDs were worth fitting. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, plus placed it in the list of available risk reductions, thereby determining if its a priority or whether there are far bigger priorities. Yours has so far been an assessment of the risk followed by an illogical conclusion. Unfortunately the approach you've shown is common today. It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. In a nut shell, humanity's short sightedness when it comes to deciding how we should spend effort and resources on tackling 'problems'. The Green Party's obsession with wind turbine, solar voltaic and tidal sources of energy is a classic case in point. They regard these sources of Mother Nature's 'energy bounty' as being 'Low Tech' eco-friendly ways to solve the world population's energy demands when they're anything but 'eco-friendly'. They choose to ignore that other 'energy bounty' on offer from 'Mother Nature', Nuclear Fission, on the basis that it requires ingenious high tech methods of extraction involving, at the point of energy extraction, highly dangerous radio active materials that have to be properly handled and processed to reduce the risk to the environment at large by two or three orders of magnitude compared to a conventional coal fired power station of equivalent energy output. Their thinking has been coloured by their experience of the earlier nuclear powered station technologies driven by the needs of the cold war demands to build up stocks of weapons' grade plutonium using power stations sited in remote locations, seemingly to reduce the impact of a Chernobyl like event on the population at large. The plain fact is, it is now possible to upgrade existing coal fired power stations to nuclear power, based on a Liquid Fueled Thorium Reactor (LFTR) design that was first experimented with half a century ago as a potential method of powering a USAF 'Always Aloft' Bomber Fleet. Only the American Military had a big enough priority and the budget to bankroll such 'Blue Sky' research projects. ICBMs sidelined the concept of an always aloft bomber fleet so the technology, so promising a solution as it was for civil nuclear power station design, was simply left to languish. If the 'Green Party' membership were to truly compare the *actual* cost/ benefit ratios of *all* the 'Green Options' Mother Nature Provides, LFTR would win hands down on energy generation, environmental impact *and* pollution costs. They wouldn't be able to tear down all those pointless Wind Turbines fast enough! Sadly, as you pointed out, it's humanity's propensity to short sighted obsession with seemingly 'nice warm cozy 'cheap' 'feel good factor' solutions that leads to wasted time and resources on sub-optimal solutions. A shortsightedness that's invariably taken advantage of by the "PT Barnum" "Get Rich Quick" type of individual or major corporate business. At the heart of all this, of course, is a nation's educational system which, in the UK and America at least, is seriously lacking in teaching the fundamental skills required to question gift horse offers and other dubious claims such as that rather outrageous idea that the damaging effects of nuclear radiation levels follow a totally contrary curve of damage versus level which apply to all other forms of radiation exposure such as UV light from solar radiation and the effects of microwave radiation which have lead us into believing that almost impossibly expensive anti-radiation precautions are required in Nuclear Power Station design, making the Nuclear Power option infeasibly expensive. Actually, the most expensive part of a Cold War type of Nuclear Power Station is its Containment Vessel. A modern LFTR based design totally does away with the need of such containment measures (along with an expensive re-fueling process industry) whilst offering a 200 fold improvement in energy yield from the nuclear fuel itself. As always, "Ignorance"(tm) strikes again at the heart of the matter. BTW, many a conspiracy theory nut would lay claim that the Oil and Petrochemical industry are doing their best to scupper the idea of a "Nuclear Powered World"(tm) when in fact it would be in their best interests to branch out (diversify) into Nuclear Power Station design and proliferation so they can corner the market in *synthesised* petrochemicals and save the costs in dangerous exploration and drilling for a dwindling natural resource. -- Johnny B Good |
#96
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 27/06/2015 11:41, Jim x321x wrote:
John Rumm wrote in o.uk: Subject: Do I need to update my house's fuse box? From: John Rumm Newsgroups: uk.d-i-y On 26/06/2015 09:12, Jim x321x wrote: wrote in : On Wednesday, 24 June 2015 10:59:29 UTC+1, Jim x321x wrote: Can someone tell me if I can get away with a 45A MCB for a 8.5kW shower without endagering life and limb? The manual tells me to use a 40A one, but I just happen to have a 45A one. I ask, because those things aren't cheap. Probably, as you're not relying on the MCB for overload protection (as the load is fixed and unlikely to draw a higher than rated current), merely for short circuit in the event of fault. What is the cable size an mounting method.? Owain It's a 6mm^ T&E cable that is surface mounted all the way to the 8.5kW shower. (about 4ft goes through surface-mounted conduit. Most of that is Method C, but the section of trunking means you need to treat it all as Method B. That gives the cable a continuous rating of 38A. Your design current is 8500 / 230 = 37A, so you are ok there (just). Many thanks for the detailed reply. So what would be the ideal rating of MCB to use? = The nominal load on the circuit... so the next one up from 37A (typically 40A) I just ordered a 40A one, because that's what the shower manual recommends. The 45A one I had wasn't ideal because it wasn't a Wylex one, and didn't fit without removing the base plate. Jim -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#97
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 26/06/2015 19:54, wrote:
On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: Not only that, as had been pointed out at various times, one insures against losses that one can't otherwise replace. I would include wife and children in that category, so a one off premium of a couple of hundred for smoke alarms and RCDs sounds like a very worthwhile investment. 2 different issues lumped together, Smoke alarms and RCDs are different - however the risks associated with not having either are comparable (although injury from fires per years are far fewer than from electric shock). 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I said injury, not deaths. So we appear to be in agreement that deaths from either cause are very low. Yet I don't hear you claiming fire protection systems including smoke alarms are also a waste of money? I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. I feel like I am talking to a truculent five year old, with his fingers in his ears, going ner ner, can't hear you. You keep bleating on about death rates as justification for your (absurd) position. And yet everyone acknowledges that the death rate alone would not be a justification for wide spread use of RCDs (or smoke alarms for that matter). I am not suggesting that if one lives in a property without RCDs, they you should be fitted because it will prevent someone from dying from electrocution - even though that is true - the actual chances that you will die that way are very small, and not worth the expense unless you are, due to circumstances, at a higher than normal risk. I am however suggesting that everyone who lives in a property without RCD protection *should* update to include them as a resonable priority. This is because *millions* of people receive electric shocks each year. Hundreds of thousands of them require hospital treatment. Tens of thousands of those receive a significant injury, many have ongoing and debilitating effects. RCDs represent a very cheap way of reducing a cause of injury that affects a significant number of people in the country every year. There are few widespread risks that are so easy to deal with in such a low cost "fit and forget" way. and a non sequitur. Explain I already have. I've shown how I assessed whether RCDs were worth fitting. Even if your logic were sound, that does not explain the "non sequiter" claim. You have carried out an assessment ignoring the most relevant parts of the data, and focussed your attention on a very small subset. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, Which only demonstrated you have failed to asses the facts. plus placed it in the list of available risk reductions, thereby determining if its a priority or whether there are far bigger priorities. Yours has so far been an assessment of the risk followed by an illogical conclusion. Unfortunately the approach you've shown is common today. I agree that poor risk assessment is indeed common - its a part of human nature and our evolution. We tend to greatly over estimate risks that are perceived to be outside of our control, or that are newsworthy, and imminent. While we tend to be complacent with risks that are familiar and common, or only affect us in the very long term. Its why many people fear flying, but not driving, worry about being raped in the street, but not heart disease. Fear terrorism, but drive on bald tyres. I don't agree that my assessment in this particular case is a manifestation of this phenomenon. It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. I would agree with that. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. Much depends on what is on your list. Fix the loose stair carpet at the top of the stairs, do something about the ancient boiler that makes you feel all drowsy every time its fired up. If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere you may have more urgent fish to fry. -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#98
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere .... then RCD on the wiring is probably a very good idea in case your walls become live. Owain |
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
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#100
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
On 26/06/2015 19:54, nt wrote: On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: Not only that, as had been pointed out at various times, one insures against losses that one can't otherwise replace. I would include wife and children in that category, so a one off premium of a couple of hundred for smoke alarms and RCDs sounds like a very worthwhile investment. 2 different issues lumped together, Smoke alarms and RCDs are different - however the risks associated with not having either are comparable (although injury from fires per years are far fewer than from electric shock). 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I said injury, not deaths. We know So we appear to be in agreement that deaths from either cause are very low. Yet I don't hear you claiming fire protection systems including smoke alarms are also a waste of money? A few pounds per family to save most of 1000 deaths a year is a good deal. 3 x 20m houses = 60m Lives saved if the alarms survive 10-20 yrs ave = 15yrs x 1000pa (number before smoke alarms were common) = 15,000 lives = 4,000 per life saved. Batteries increase that, but still a fine deal. I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. I feel like I am talking to a truculent five year old, with his fingers in his ears, going ner ner, can't hear you. ah, ad hominem. I think what you mean is that the point(s) we see as key are different. You keep bleating on about death rates as justification for your (absurd) position. And yet everyone acknowledges that the death rate alone would not be a justification for wide spread use of RCDs we agree on that then (or smoke alarms for that matter). the figures do not support that position. snip I am however suggesting that everyone who lives in a property without RCD protection *should* update to include them as a resonable priority. This is because *millions* of people receive electric shocks each year. Hundreds of thousands of them require hospital treatment. Tens of thousands of those receive a significant injury, many have ongoing and debilitating effects. Your injury data is wrong due to you not undersanding the situation. RCDs represent a very cheap way of reducing a cause of injury that affects a significant number of people in the country every year. There are few widespread risks that are so easy to deal with in such a low cost "fit and forget" way. and a non sequitur. Explain I already have. I've shown how I assessed whether RCDs were worth fitting. Even if your logic were sound, that does not explain the "non sequiter" claim. feel free to listen to the reply first You have carried out an assessment ignoring the most relevant parts of the data, and focussed your attention on a very small subset. in your opinion. Many don't see risk assessment that way. Your faulty injury assessment is a good example of why. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, Which only demonstrated you have failed to asses the facts. rather it confirms that we differ on what's most important, and what actually are the facts. Your injury stats are, I'm sorry to say, bunk. snip It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. I would agree with that. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. Much depends on what is on your list. Fix the loose stair carpet at the top of the stairs, do something about the ancient boiler that makes you feel all drowsy every time its fired up. If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere you may have more urgent fish to fry. the top 10 killers or death risks aren't those things, at least for over 99% of us. Most people have not even dealt with the top few. I say put the time & money towards doing something about one of those instead, you'll get over 1000x the risk reduction benefit. NT |
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Sunday, 28 June 2015 12:06:47 UTC+1, Robin wrote:
wrote: On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere ... then RCD on the wiring is probably a very good idea in case your walls become live. But the RCD might stop electrolysis of the water which might in turn be giving rise to a disinfectant that stops bugs breeding on the walls? More risk assessment is needed! bg. hehe. electrolysis with copper does kill bugs. NT |
#102
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 28/06/2015 17:47, wrote:
On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 26/06/2015 19:54, nt wrote: On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: Not only that, as had been pointed out at various times, one insures against losses that one can't otherwise replace. I would include wife and children in that category, so a one off premium of a couple of hundred for smoke alarms and RCDs sounds like a very worthwhile investment. 2 different issues lumped together, Smoke alarms and RCDs are different - however the risks associated with not having either are comparable (although injury from fires per years are far fewer than from electric shock). 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I said injury, not deaths. We know So we appear to be in agreement that deaths from either cause are very low. Yet I don't hear you claiming fire protection systems including smoke alarms are also a waste of money? A few pounds per family to save most of 1000 deaths a year is a good Where do you get 1000 deaths per year from? In 2013 - 14 there were 258 dwelling fire fatalities (from a total of 40375 dwelling fires) https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...F_Version_.pdf deal. 3 x 20m houses = 60m Lives saved if the alarms survive 10-20 Where do you get 3 from? Even a single cheap detector is typically more than that, and that is far from a recommended install. (i.e. mains interlinked alarms in all of the main circulation spaces in the home) yrs ave = 15yrs x 1000pa (number before smoke alarms were common) = 15,000 lives = 4,000 per life saved. Batteries increase that, but still a fine deal. In the same period, there were 7798 non fatal casualties from dwelling fires. (compare this to the 350,000 / year serious injury rate from a total of 2.5m electrical shocks!) http://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org...ch/statistics/ I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. I feel like I am talking to a truculent five year old, with his fingers in his ears, going ner ner, can't hear you. ah, ad hominem. I think what you mean is that the point(s) we see as key are different. No, I mean we both agree that death rates are not a good indication of the risks involved, and yet you repeatedly cite them as justification of your position. You keep bleating on about death rates as justification for your (absurd) position. And yet everyone acknowledges that the death rate alone would not be a justification for wide spread use of RCDs we agree on that then (or smoke alarms for that matter). the figures do not support that position. Do you mean the figures indicate far more strongly the importance of RCDs? I am however suggesting that everyone who lives in a property without RCD protection *should* update to include them as a resonable priority. This is because *millions* of people receive electric shocks each year. Hundreds of thousands of them require hospital treatment. Tens of thousands of those receive a significant injury, many have ongoing and debilitating effects. Your injury data is wrong due to you not undersanding the situation. Can you provide alternate data? Can you sand it better for us? RCDs represent a very cheap way of reducing a cause of injury that affects a significant number of people in the country every year. There are few widespread risks that are so easy to deal with in such a low cost "fit and forget" way. and a non sequitur. Explain I already have. I've shown how I assessed whether RCDs were worth fitting. Even if your logic were sound, that does not explain the "non sequiter" claim. feel free to listen to the reply first You have carried out an assessment ignoring the most relevant parts of the data, and focussed your attention on a very small subset. in your opinion. Many don't see risk assessment that way. Your faulty injury assessment is a good example of why. Why do you believe the injury assessment is faulty? You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, Which only demonstrated you have failed to asses the facts. rather it confirms that we differ on what's most important, and what actually are the facts. Your injury stats are, I'm sorry to say, bunk. So provide better data... with sources! snip It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. I would agree with that. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. Much depends on what is on your list. Fix the loose stair carpet at the top of the stairs, do something about the ancient boiler that makes you feel all drowsy every time its fired up. If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere you may have more urgent fish to fry. the top 10 killers or death risks aren't those things, at least for over 99% of us. Most people have not even dealt with the top few. You seem to be confusing statistics applicable to the general population with those applicable to an "at risk" subset. CO poisoning is not a top 10 killer (see you are back to deaths again!) in the general population. That is because faulty gas appliances (or other sources of CO in the home) are not common in the general population. However in this case I was citing the subset of people that actually *have* a faulty gas appliance. Here the risks of CO poisoning will be many *orders of magnitude* greater than those for the general population. I say put the time & money towards doing something about one of those instead, you'll get over 1000x the risk reduction benefit. Do you have some examples of these injury risks, and how you plan to reduce those risks by 1000x? -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#103
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Monday, 29 June 2015 03:18:41 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
On 28/06/2015 17:47, nt wrote: On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 26/06/2015 19:54, nt wrote: On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I said injury, not deaths. We know So we appear to be in agreement that deaths from either cause are very low. Yet I don't hear you claiming fire protection systems including smoke alarms are also a waste of money? A few pounds per family to save most of 1000 deaths a year is a good Where do you get 1000 deaths per year from? In 2013 - 14 there were 258 dwelling fire fatalities (from a total of 40375 dwelling fires) https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...F_Version_.pdf As I said, before smoke alarms became common there were about 1000 deaths a year. The main change since then has been widespread use of smoke alarms. Its reasonable to conclude that with no smoke alarm the risk is nearer 1000/yr than the current 200 odd. deal. 3 x 20m houses = 60m Lives saved if the alarms survive 10-20 Where do you get 3 from? Even a single cheap detector is typically more than that, and that is far from a recommended install. (i.e. mains interlinked alarms in all of the main circulation spaces in the home) but its what most people use. If you want to calculate costs & payback for other options you can. yrs ave = 15yrs x 1000pa (number before smoke alarms were common) = 15,000 lives = 4,000 per life saved. Batteries increase that, but still a fine deal. In the same period, there were 7798 non fatal casualties from dwelling fires. (compare this to the 350,000 / year serious injury rate from a total of 2.5m electrical shocks!) http://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org...ch/statistics/ the relvant line there is: 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. I feel like I am talking to a truculent five year old, with his fingers in his ears, going ner ner, can't hear you. ah, ad hominem. I think what you mean is that the point(s) we see as key are different. No, I mean we both agree that death rates are not a good indication of the risks involved, and yet you repeatedly cite them as justification of your position. For good reason. These kind of analyses are routinely based on death rates as they're far more reliable data, and a much more serious problem. You keep bleating on about death rates as justification for your (absurd) position. And yet everyone acknowledges that the death rate alone would not be a justification for wide spread use of RCDs we agree on that then (or smoke alarms for that matter). the figures do not support that position. Do you mean the figures indicate far more strongly the importance of RCDs? I don't mean anything of the sort. I mean the figures above show smoke alarms to be a good deal. I am however suggesting that everyone who lives in a property without RCD protection *should* update to include them as a resonable priority. This is because *millions* of people receive electric shocks each year. Hundreds of thousands of them require hospital treatment. Tens of thousands of those receive a significant injury, many have ongoing and debilitating effects. Your injury data is wrong due to you not undersanding the situation. Can you provide alternate data? I'm not going to look for it. That does not mean we should base a decision on data that's patently false. Can you sand it better for us? RCDs represent a very cheap way of reducing a cause of injury that affects a significant number of people in the country every year. There are few widespread risks that are so easy to deal with in such a low cost "fit and forget" way. and a non sequitur. Explain I already have. I've shown how I assessed whether RCDs were worth fitting. Even if your logic were sound, that does not explain the "non sequiter" claim. feel free to listen to the reply first You have carried out an assessment ignoring the most relevant parts of the data, and focussed your attention on a very small subset. in your opinion. Many don't see risk assessment that way. Your faulty injury assessment is a good example of why. Why do you believe the injury assessment is faulty? You said in a previous post what it really was. The NHS routinely admits people and sends ambulances for people that are uninjured in situations where they know there is some risk of a situation turning out to be fatal, even when the risk is quite small. So it is with shock. The figure you gave is far from the number actually injured. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, Which only demonstrated you have failed to asses the facts. rather it confirms that we differ on what's most important, and what actually are the facts. Your injury stats are, I'm sorry to say, bunk. So provide better data... with sources! Sorry but no, I have way more useful things to do, and really I'm not concerned about it. If you want to provide a case for retrofitting RCDs you're free to. It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. I would agree with that. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. Much depends on what is on your list. Fix the loose stair carpet at the top of the stairs, do something about the ancient boiler that makes you feel all drowsy every time its fired up. If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere you may have more urgent fish to fry. the top 10 killers or death risks aren't those things, at least for over 99% of us. Most people have not even dealt with the top few. You seem to be confusing statistics applicable to the general population with those applicable to an "at risk" subset. The top 10 apply to everyone. CO poisoning is not a top 10 killer (see you are back to deaths again!) in the general population. That is because faulty gas appliances (or other sources of CO in the home) are not common in the general population. However in this case I was citing the subset of people that actually *have* a faulty gas appliance. Here the risks of CO poisoning will be many *orders of magnitude* greater than those for the general population. there's little point discussing that, it has nothing to do with the main point I say put the time & money towards doing something about one of those instead, you'll get over 1000x the risk reduction benefit. Do you have some examples of these injury risks, As I've made clear all along, they're death risks. I can't believe you're still confused about that. and how you plan to reduce those risks by 1000x? Why would anyone try to reduce them 1000fold? Reducing a risk over 1000x as large is over 1000x as beneficial as fitting RCDs, which in truth have only a very very tiny chance of saving your life. NT |
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
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#105
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
wrote:
Where do you get 1000 deaths per year from? In 2013 - 14 there were 258 dwelling fire fatalities (from a total of 40375 dwelling fires) https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...F_Version_.pdf As I said, before smoke alarms became common there were about 1000 deaths a year. The main change since then has been widespread use of smoke alarms. Its reasonable to conclude that with no smoke alarm the risk is nearer 1000/yr than the current 200 odd. That's an heroic assumption. First, you give no credit to the reduction in the total number of fires in dwellings (down 40% since 2000/01). Given there's no smoke without fire I douibt smoke alarms contributed to that. Second, the report states that the "proportion of households with a smoke alarm increased rapidly from 8% in 1988 to 70% in 1994 in England, but has risen more slowly in later years up to 88% has at least one working smoke alarm in 2012-13". So fatalities peaked well after smoke alarms had penetrated most dwellings but have then fallen much faster than can be explained by the additional penetration. Of course there *might* be effects from better smoke alarms, including interlinked alarms with mains supply. But you'd need a better argued impact assessment to support regulations to require them. (Of course if you can get the requirement in by means of a BS then you may welkl not need an impact assessment with costs and benefits quantified: I have yet to see one for Amendment 3 to BS 7671:2008 and non-combustible CUs.) -- Robin reply to address is (meant to be) valid |
#106
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Monday, June 29, 2015 at 3:16:01 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Monday, 29 June 2015 03:18:41 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: snip http://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org...ch/statistics/ the relvant line there is: 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I notice (looking further down the quoted page) that the figure for electric shock comes from the answers given in interviews with 4032 people over 15.. Apparently the people were selected to be a 'representative quota sample' and the results weighted to represent the known profile of the adult population of GB.What we don't know is the way the questions were phrased. What I really don't understand is how they calculate the figure for injuries, given that they say they were obtained by surveying 4032 adults *all* of whom had received an electric shock injury... |
#107
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 29/06/2015 15:15, wrote:
On Monday, 29 June 2015 03:18:41 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 28/06/2015 17:47, nt wrote: On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 26/06/2015 19:54, nt wrote: On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I said injury, not deaths. We know So we appear to be in agreement that deaths from either cause are very low. Yet I don't hear you claiming fire protection systems including smoke alarms are also a waste of money? A few pounds per family to save most of 1000 deaths a year is a good Where do you get 1000 deaths per year from? In 2013 - 14 there were 258 dwelling fire fatalities (from a total of 40375 dwelling fires) https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...F_Version_.pdf As I said, before smoke alarms became common there were about 1000 deaths a year. The main change since then has been widespread use of smoke alarms. Its reasonable to conclude that with no smoke alarm the risk is nearer 1000/yr than the current 200 odd. What has the situation in the past got to do with recommendations one would make now? deal. 3 x 20m houses = 60m Lives saved if the alarms survive 10-20 Where do you get 3 from? Even a single cheap detector is typically more than that, and that is far from a recommended install. (i.e. mains interlinked alarms in all of the main circulation spaces in the home) but its what most people use. If you want to calculate costs & payback for other options you can. I would suggest most people pay in excess of 10 per alarm, and buy at least two of them. A proper install to modern standards would cost significantly more. yrs ave = 15yrs x 1000pa (number before smoke alarms were common) = 15,000 lives = 4,000 per life saved. Batteries increase that, but still a fine deal. In the same period, there were 7798 non fatal casualties from dwelling fires. (compare this to the 350,000 / year serious injury rate from a total of 2.5m electrical shocks!) http://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org...ch/statistics/ the relvant line there is: 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' Did you read the ** footnote? If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by The figures are for those over 15 anyway, and if including those who are 80 now, they would predate modern wiring practices. You are also assuming that those shocked each year are unique - when in reality some adults will be far more likely to receive a shock than others. You will have many "serial offenders" here. shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. No, it shows you did not read the footnote. Their definition of serious injury : **Based on a survey of 4,032 adults in Great Britain aged 15+ who have personally experienced an electric shock that resulted in injury while at home or in the garden in the past twelve months including all those who experienced one or more of the following injuries: Severe pain, Skin burn without scarring, Bruising from a fall or severe muscular contraction, Temporary blindness, Heartbeat disturbance, Persistent pain or numbness, Higher blood pressure, Skin burn with scarring, Broken bone(s), Difficulty breathing.' A number of which are recoverable from. From memory, there was something like 5k - 10k in the most serious categories And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I fully accept they have an agenda, and that they have over stated the figures for serious injury by including less serious injuries into the "serious" category. However, Even if 10x out (which is unlikely) that would still be plenty of justification for the current regulations on the use of RCDs. I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. I feel like I am talking to a truculent five year old, with his fingers in his ears, going ner ner, can't hear you. ah, ad hominem. I think what you mean is that the point(s) we see as key are different. No, I mean we both agree that death rates are not a good indication of the risks involved, and yet you repeatedly cite them as justification of your position. For good reason. These kind of analyses are routinely based on death rates as they're far more reliable data, and a much more serious problem. Make your mind up. You keep bleating on about death rates as justification for your (absurd) position. And yet everyone acknowledges that the death rate alone would not be a justification for wide spread use of RCDs we agree on that then (or smoke alarms for that matter). the figures do not support that position. Do you mean the figures indicate far more strongly the importance of RCDs? I don't mean anything of the sort. I mean the figures above show smoke alarms to be a good deal. But they show them as a less "good deal" than the results being achieved with RCDs. I am however suggesting that everyone who lives in a property without RCD protection *should* update to include them as a resonable priority. This is because *millions* of people receive electric shocks each year. Hundreds of thousands of them require hospital treatment. Tens of thousands of those receive a significant injury, many have ongoing and debilitating effects. Your injury data is wrong due to you not undersanding the situation. Can you provide alternate data? I'm not going to look for it. That does not mean we should base a decision on data that's patently false. So you would rather base a decision on no data at all apparently? in your opinion. Many don't see risk assessment that way. Your faulty injury assessment is a good example of why. Why do you believe the injury assessment is faulty? You said in a previous post what it really was. The NHS routinely admits people and sends ambulances for people that are uninjured in situations where they know there is some risk of a situation turning out to be fatal, even when the risk is quite small. So it is with shock. The figure you gave is far from the number actually injured. Go read the footnote again. I would not not necessarily include bruising and burns with no permanent scarring in the "serious" category. However the rest seem reasonable to include. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, Which only demonstrated you have failed to asses the facts. rather it confirms that we differ on what's most important, and what actually are the facts. Your injury stats are, I'm sorry to say, bunk. So provide better data... with sources! Sorry but no, I have way more useful things to do, and really I'm not concerned about it. If you want to provide a case for retrofitting RCDs you're free to. So you are content to counter the advice given by many here on RCDs, and yet can't be arsed (or more likely, could not find when you looked!) to backup your position with data when asked to justify the advice you offer? Yet have enough time to argue about it? It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. I would agree with that. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. Much depends on what is on your list. Fix the loose stair carpet at the top of the stairs, do something about the ancient boiler that makes you feel all drowsy every time its fired up. If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere you may have more urgent fish to fry. the top 10 killers or death risks aren't those things, at least for over 99% of us. Most people have not even dealt with the top few. You seem to be confusing statistics applicable to the general population with those applicable to an "at risk" subset. The top 10 apply to everyone. Obviously they don't. Do you suppose that the risks of CO poisoning in the home are the same for people who don't have gas? CO poisoning is not a top 10 killer (see you are back to deaths again!) in the general population. That is because faulty gas appliances (or other sources of CO in the home) are not common in the general population. However in this case I was citing the subset of people that actually *have* a faulty gas appliance. Here the risks of CO poisoning will be many *orders of magnitude* greater than those for the general population. there's little point discussing that, it has nothing to do with the main point It has *everything* to do with risk assessment which you claim to have some competency in. I say put the time & money towards doing something about one of those instead, you'll get over 1000x the risk reduction benefit. Do you have some examples of these injury risks, As I've made clear all along, they're death risks. LoL, is it panto season already? I can't believe you're still confused about that. I am confused since you talk about all these risks that are higher priority, and yet don't seem to be able to state what any of them are. -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#108
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 29/06/2015 16:58, wrote:
On Monday, June 29, 2015 at 3:16:01 PM UTC+1, wrote: On Monday, 29 June 2015 03:18:41 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: snip http://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org...ch/statistics/ the relvant line there is: 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I notice (looking further down the quoted page) that the figure for electric shock comes from the answers given in interviews with 4032 people over 15. Apparently the people were selected to be a 'representative quota sample' and the results weighted to represent the known profile of the adult population of GB.What we don't know is the way the questions were phrased. What I really don't understand is how they calculate the figure for injuries, given that they say they were obtained by surveying 4032 adults *all* of whom had received an electric shock injury... I think that is worded poorly, but makes more sense if taken with the "*" para above: " *4,032 interviews were conducted with adults in Great Britain aged 15+ from 06 to 27 May 2011 via Ipsos MORI's Capibus, the weekly face-to-face omnibus survey, using a nationally representative quota sample across Great Britain. The results have been weighted to reflect the known profile of the adult population in Great Britain. Based on a confidence interval of +/- 0.9% and the sample size of 4,032 the actual number could vary between c2.1 to 2.8 million. Electric shock is defined as 'a mains-voltage electric shock rather than a static shock of the type a person might get from a car, for example.'" So that suggests that not all 4032 received shocks - but a proportion did, and that yields the ~2.5m figure. The detail of the effects of shocks reported would then yield the "serious" figure. (I also recall posting stats from hospital admissions in the admitted for treatment for electrical related injury. That also had a spread "seriousness" ranging from the pain / bruising, through broken bones, and more permanent conditions, up to the more immediately life threatening). -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#109
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Tuesday, 30 June 2015 16:55:58 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
Electric shock is defined as 'a mains-voltage electric shock So not the one I got sticking my fingers inside the valve radio then. Owain |
#110
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Tuesday, 30 June 2015 16:21:45 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
On 29/06/2015 15:15, nt wrote: On Monday, 29 June 2015 03:18:41 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 28/06/2015 17:47, nt wrote: On Sunday, 28 June 2015 06:50:57 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 26/06/2015 19:54, nt wrote: On Friday, 26 June 2015 16:23:39 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: 200 something deaths a year in fires now, 20 something from shock I said injury, not deaths. We know So we appear to be in agreement that deaths from either cause are very low. Yet I don't hear you claiming fire protection systems including smoke alarms are also a waste of money? A few pounds per family to save most of 1000 deaths a year is a good Where do you get 1000 deaths per year from? In 2013 - 14 there were 258 dwelling fire fatalities (from a total of 40375 dwelling fires) https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...F_Version_.pdf As I said, before smoke alarms became common there were about 1000 deaths a year. The main change since then has been widespread use of smoke alarms. Its reasonable to conclude that with no smoke alarm the risk is nearer 1000/yr than the current 200 odd. What has the situation in the past got to do with recommendations one would make now? how ever else do you propose to assess what difference smoke alarms have made? Go on, show us your assessment. Maybe you can use Robin's info for a more accurate result, but I can't imagine how you intend to work it out without using past figures. deal. 3 x 20m houses = 60m Lives saved if the alarms survive 10-20 Where do you get 3 from? Even a single cheap detector is typically more than that, and that is far from a recommended install. (i.e. mains interlinked alarms in all of the main circulation spaces in the home) but its what most people use. If you want to calculate costs & payback for other options you can. I would suggest most people pay in excess of 10 per alarm, and buy at least two of them. A proper install to modern standards would cost significantly more. yrs ave = 15yrs x 1000pa (number before smoke alarms were common) = 15,000 lives = 4,000 per life saved. Batteries increase that, but still a fine deal. In the same period, there were 7798 non fatal casualties from dwelling fires. (compare this to the 350,000 / year serious injury rate from a total of 2.5m electrical shocks!) http://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org...ch/statistics/ the relvant line there is: 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' Did you read the ** footnote? yes... did you have a point? If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by The figures are for those over 15 anyway, and if including those who are 80 now, they would predate modern wiring practices. yes... You are also assuming that those shocked each year are unique - when in reality some adults will be far more likely to receive a shock than others. You will have many "serial offenders" here. I don't recall making that assumption shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. No, it shows you did not read the footnote. Their definition of serious injury : **Based on a survey of 4,032 adults in Great Britain aged 15+ who have personally experienced an electric shock that resulted in injury while at home or in the garden in the past twelve months including all those who experienced one or more of the following injuries: Severe pain, Skin burn without scarring, Bruising from a fall or severe muscular contraction, Temporary blindness, Heartbeat disturbance, Persistent pain or numbness, Higher blood pressure, Skin burn with scarring, Broken bone(s), Difficulty breathing.' At the risk of stating the utterly obvious, more or less all mains shocks involve considerable pain. Its also normal to experience elevated heart rate & blood pressure. None of these, according to any sensible definition, constitute serious injury. Nor do Bruises. The data is complete bunk. A number of which are recoverable from. From memory, there was something like 5k - 10k in the most serious categories a little different to 2.5 million then! And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I fully accept they have an agenda, and that they have over stated the figures for serious injury by including less serious injuries into the "serious" category. However, Even if 10x out (which is unlikely) I agree 10x is unlikely. 100-1000x is far more likely. ISTR an estimate of 600x from a few years ago, but don't remember where it came from. that would still be plenty of justification for the current regulations on the use of RCDs. I think we all agree RCDs in new installs are a good thing. What was being debated is the merits of retrofitting, where the cost & time involved are a good bit more. I seem to recall someone round here was very fond of plastering domestic fire safety stats into every wiki article given the chance. Why the double standards? why the claim of double standards? how would stating the known facts possibly be that? Its not even worth answering. I feel like I am talking to a truculent five year old, with his fingers in his ears, going ner ner, can't hear you. ah, ad hominem. I think what you mean is that the point(s) we see as key are different. No, I mean we both agree that death rates are not a good indication of the risks involved, and yet you repeatedly cite them as justification of your position. For good reason. These kind of analyses are routinely based on death rates as they're far more reliable data, and a much more serious problem. Make your mind up. If you haven't got it yet that I'm interested in deaths not injuries, then there's no point us continuing. You keep bleating on about death rates as justification for your (absurd) position. And yet everyone acknowledges that the death rate alone would not be a justification for wide spread use of RCDs we agree on that then (or smoke alarms for that matter). the figures do not support that position. Do you mean the figures indicate far more strongly the importance of RCDs? I don't mean anything of the sort. I mean the figures above show smoke alarms to be a good deal. But they show them as a less "good deal" than the results being achieved with RCDs. Well, you're free to show us fatality figures that support that. You never have. All you've offered is junk stats that claim wild levels of injuries. This is precisely one of the reasons such decisions are so often made on mortality, not injury stats, the latter are far less reliable. I am however suggesting that everyone who lives in a property without RCD protection *should* update to include them as a resonable priority. This is because *millions* of people receive electric shocks each year. Hundreds of thousands of them require hospital treatment. Tens of thousands of those receive a significant injury, many have ongoing and debilitating effects. Your injury data is wrong due to you not undersanding the situation. Can you provide alternate data? I'm not going to look for it. That does not mean we should base a decision on data that's patently false. So you would rather base a decision on no data at all apparently? did you miss the stated death rates of shocks and the death rates from not eating well then? Keep this up and I'll start wondering if you've merged with Rodney. in your opinion. Many don't see risk assessment that way. Your faulty injury assessment is a good example of why. Why do you believe the injury assessment is faulty? You said in a previous post what it really was. The NHS routinely admits people and sends ambulances for people that are uninjured in situations where they know there is some risk of a situation turning out to be fatal, even when the risk is quite small. So it is with shock. The figure you gave is far from the number actually injured. Go read the footnote again. still no news there I would not not necessarily include bruising and burns with no permanent scarring in the "serious" category. However the rest seem reasonable to include. pain either, which about all have. Hence their crazy inflated figure. You simply did not address the necessary points in order to reach a reason based case on the question of whether its a good things to install your RCDs. Maybe some of us just aren't into risk assessment. You think... I wonder who? I've offered a clear risk & cost asessment, Which only demonstrated you have failed to asses the facts. rather it confirms that we differ on what's most important, and what actually are the facts. Your injury stats are, I'm sorry to say, bunk. So provide better data... with sources! Sorry but no, I have way more useful things to do, and really I'm not concerned about it. If you want to provide a case for retrofitting RCDs you're free to. So you are content to counter the advice given by many here on RCDs, and yet can't be arsed (or more likely, could not find when you looked!) to backup your position with data when asked to justify the advice you offer? Yet have enough time to argue about it? The relevant data has beem stated again and again and again. Wakey wakey. It results in people spending on tiny risks and consequently neglecting the big ones. No-one has the resources to address all risks, so the sensible approach is to prioritise the ones we can reduce the most. I would agree with that. That is evidently not RCDs, unless you've effectively tackled a fairly long list of others already. Much depends on what is on your list. Fix the loose stair carpet at the top of the stairs, do something about the ancient boiler that makes you feel all drowsy every time its fired up. If there is water running down the walls, and mould everywhere you may have more urgent fish to fry. the top 10 killers or death risks aren't those things, at least for over 99% of us. Most people have not even dealt with the top few. You seem to be confusing statistics applicable to the general population with those applicable to an "at risk" subset. The top 10 apply to everyone. Obviously they don't. Do you suppose that the risks of CO poisoning in the home are the same for people who don't have gas? I'd love to hear your CO stats that put that one into the top 10 CO poisoning is not a top 10 killer (see you are back to deaths again!) in the general population. That is because faulty gas appliances (or other sources of CO in the home) are not common in the general population. However in this case I was citing the subset of people that actually *have* a faulty gas appliance. Here the risks of CO poisoning will be many *orders of magnitude* greater than those for the general population. there's little point discussing that, it has nothing to do with the main point It has *everything* to do with risk assessment which you claim to have some competency in. it makes no difference to the main point and is not worth discussing I say put the time & money towards doing something about one of those instead, you'll get over 1000x the risk reduction benefit. Do you have some examples of these injury risks, As I've made clear all along, they're death risks. LoL, is it panto season already? which bit is confusing? I can't believe you're still confused about that. I am confused since you talk about all these risks that are higher priority, and yet don't seem to be able to state what any of them are. What makes you think that? 2010 mortality: 158k circulatory diseases 141k cancer & neoplasms 67k respiratory diseases 25k digestive diseases 19k dementia & mental disorders 18k nervous system diseases 17k accidents & injuries 12k genitourinary diseases 8k senility 5k diabetes .... And according to the NHS, about 40 a year from CO. NT |
#111
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 30/06/2015 22:11, wrote:
On Tuesday, 30 June 2015 16:21:45 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: What has the situation in the past got to do with recommendations one would make now? how ever else do you propose to assess what difference smoke alarms have made? Not by making wild claims of huge reductions in death rate and falsely attributing that solely to smoke alarms, that is for sure. As Robin pointed out, peak death occurred at a time when alarms were already well established, and the recent falls in death rate do not correlate well with the numbers of installed alarms. The data point to a much deeper and more nuanced relationship. (you do realise that people also install smoke alarms for reasons in addition to saving their lives? Or is this another case where you house going up is smoke is of no concern, just that you don't die in the process?) 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' Did you read the ** footnote? yes... did you have a point? You are claiming that their figures are implausible, without apparently taking into account their definition of serious injury. The footnote goes some way to explain why the number is so high. If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by The figures are for those over 15 anyway, and if including those who are 80 now, they would predate modern wiring practices. yes... So your sums are nonsense as well. You are also assuming that those shocked each year are unique - when in reality some adults will be far more likely to receive a shock than others. You will have many "serial offenders" here. I don't recall making that assumption the "80x350,000 people" sum was a bit of a give away. shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. How many people have you met who claim to have *never* received an electrical shock? Many would meet the "serious" injury threshold set out in the footnote. No, it shows you did not read the footnote. Their definition of serious injury : **Based on a survey of 4,032 adults in Great Britain aged 15+ who have personally experienced an electric shock that resulted in injury while at home or in the garden in the past twelve months including all those who experienced one or more of the following injuries: Severe pain, Skin burn without scarring, Bruising from a fall or severe muscular contraction, Temporary blindness, Heartbeat disturbance, Persistent pain or numbness, Higher blood pressure, Skin burn with scarring, Broken bone(s), Difficulty breathing.' At the risk of stating the utterly obvious, more or less all mains shocks involve considerable pain. Indeed. That is also part of the justification for using RCDs - they limit the duration of the shock and greatly reduce the pain. Its also normal to experience elevated heart rate & blood pressure. None of these, according to any sensible definition, constitute serious injury. Permanently elevated heart rate and blood pressure certainly count as serious injury. Even temporary elevation will be a serious complication for people with certain pre-existing conditions. Nor do Bruises. The data is complete bunk. The data (while questionable) are by no means bunk. They have elevated the figures by including some types of injury that one might argue are less serious. However it is also very clear that even if the figures were an order of magnitude out, for what you consider to be a serious injury, you still have more than adequate justification for fitting RCDs, and at worst, comparable justification to that for fitting smoke alarms. A number of which are recoverable from. From memory, there was something like 5k - 10k in the most serious categories a little different to 2.5 million then! You do understand that not *all* shocks result in broken bones or cardiac arrest? The 2.5 million figure is the estimate of the number of mains voltage shocks received by adults each year - not those enduring life changing effects. Are you now being deliberately obtuse? And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I fully accept they have an agenda, and that they have over stated the figures for serious injury by including less serious injuries into the "serious" category. However, Even if 10x out (which is unlikely) I agree 10x is unlikely. 100-1000x is far more likely. ISTR an estimate of 600x from a few years ago, but don't remember where it came from. Even 1000x would be one serious injury per day. The hospital treatment stats I have seen in the past indicate the figure is well above that however. Still we should be able to resolve this question shortly: http://www.rospa.com/home-safety/res...tion-database/ that would still be plenty of justification for the current regulations on the use of RCDs. I think we all agree RCDs in new installs are a good thing. What was being debated is the merits of retrofitting, where the cost & time involved are a good bit more. There is not that much difference in cost between a new CU installation, and a retrofit IME. The latter takes a little longer, but not dramatically - only enough to label and disconnect the existing wiring. If you haven't got it yet that I'm interested in deaths not injuries, then there's no point us continuing. I understand you have a narrow focus on deaths. That's fine by me. If you are content to tolerate the far more typical outcome of an electric shock, (i.e. pain and injury), rather than spend a couple of hundred preventing / reducing the risk then by all means carry on. However you then go on to give misleading advice to people contemplating on fitting RCDs based on that very narrow viewpoint. For the vast majority of people looking at retrofitting RCDs for the protection of their families, the protection from death aspect is certainly a very "nice to have" bonus, but since its also a very low likelihood occurrence - its not a big part of the decision making process. The real motivation for most will be the greatly enhanced protection from injury and pain that matters more. Well, you're free to show us fatality figures that support that. You never have. All you've offered is junk stats that claim wild levels of injuries. This is precisely one of the reasons such decisions are so often made on mortality, not injury stats, the latter are far less reliable. Not much help when we are trying to prevent injury rather than mortality though... I am confused since you talk about all these risks that are higher priority, and yet don't seem to be able to state what any of them are. What makes you think that? 2010 mortality: 158k circulatory diseases 141k cancer & neoplasms 67k respiratory diseases 25k digestive diseases 19k dementia & mental disorders 18k nervous system diseases 17k accidents & injuries 12k genitourinary diseases 8k senility 5k diabetes You appreciate we are all going to die from something eventually? We are discussing protection from accidental injury in the home, not long term lifestyle choices / genetic predispositions and eventual outcomes on health. Now which of the above can you fix in the home for a couple of hundred quid? -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
#112
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Friday, 3 July 2015 01:30:27 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote:
On 30/06/2015 22:11, nt wrote: On Tuesday, 30 June 2015 16:21:45 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: What has the situation in the past got to do with recommendations one would make now? how ever else do you propose to assess what difference smoke alarms have made? Not by making wild claims of huge reductions in death rate and falsely attributing that solely to smoke alarms, that is for sure. As Robin pointed out, peak death occurred at a time when alarms were already well established, and the recent falls in death rate do not correlate well with the numbers of installed alarms. The data point to a much deeper and more nuanced relationship. Sure, I accept that data needs improving. Are you able to offer better figures? (you do realise that people also install smoke alarms for reasons in addition to saving their lives? Or is this another case where you house going up is smoke is of no concern, just that you don't die in the process?) ok, I accept you're not focussed on the biggest risks, and determined to be silly. 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' Did you read the ** footnote? yes... did you have a point? You are claiming that their figures are implausible, correct. it plainly is. without apparently taking into account their definition of serious injury. The footnote goes some way to explain why the number is so high. the footnotes explain why the claims are so ridiculous. I have explained this before. There is patently no basis for your claim they've been overlooked. If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by The figures are for those over 15 anyway, and if including those who are 80 now, they would predate modern wiring practices. yes... So your sums are nonsense as well. no, they're just rough ballpark which is enough to make the point. Feel free to offer better figures if you have them. You are also assuming that those shocked each year are unique - when in reality some adults will be far more likely to receive a shock than others. You will have many "serial offenders" here. I don't recall making that assumption the "80x350,000 people" sum was a bit of a give away. if you want to calculate it more precisely, despite the huge changes in wiring safety over the years, you're free to provide the necessary figures and calculate it. A ballpark is all it takes to make the relevant point. shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. How many people have you met who claim to have *never* received an electrical shock? can't say I've asked. Why would I? Many would meet the "serious" injury threshold set out in the footnote. which is not, in any sensible definition, serious injury No, it shows you did not read the footnote. Their definition of serious injury : **Based on a survey of 4,032 adults in Great Britain aged 15+ who have personally experienced an electric shock that resulted in injury while at home or in the garden in the past twelve months including all those who experienced one or more of the following injuries: Severe pain, Skin burn without scarring, Bruising from a fall or severe muscular contraction, Temporary blindness, Heartbeat disturbance, Persistent pain or numbness, Higher blood pressure, Skin burn with scarring, Broken bone(s), Difficulty breathing.' At the risk of stating the utterly obvious, more or less all mains shocks involve considerable pain. Indeed. That is also part of the justification for using RCDs - they limit the duration of the shock and greatly reduce the pain. Its also normal to experience elevated heart rate & blood pressure. None of these, according to any sensible definition, constitute serious injury. Permanently elevated heart rate and blood pressure certainly count as serious injury. Even temporary elevation will be a serious complication for people with certain pre-existing conditions. for most it does not constitute any injury, let alone serious injury Nor do Bruises. The data is complete bunk. The data (while questionable) are by no means bunk. They have elevated the figures by including some types of injury that one might argue are less serious. However it is also very clear that even if the figures were an order of magnitude out, for what you consider to be a serious injury, clearly they're a good 2 orders of magnitude out for _any_ injury. you still have more than adequate justification for fitting RCDs, and at worst, comparable justification to that for fitting smoke alarms. A number of which are recoverable from. From memory, there was something like 5k - 10k in the most serious categories a little different to 2.5 million then! You do understand that not *all* shocks result in broken bones or cardiac arrest? shaking head The 2.5 million figure is the estimate of the number of mains voltage shocks received by adults each year - not those enduring life changing effects. Are you now being deliberately obtuse? shocks yes, not serious injuries as you claim. It would be bizarre to call pointing out the massive difference obtuse And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I fully accept they have an agenda, and that they have over stated the figures for serious injury by including less serious injuries into the "serious" category. However, Even if 10x out (which is unlikely) I agree 10x is unlikely. 100-1000x is far more likely. ISTR an estimate of 600x from a few years ago, but don't remember where it came from. Even 1000x would be one serious injury per day. The hospital treatment stats I have seen in the past indicate the figure is well above that however. Still we should be able to resolve this question shortly: http://www.rospa.com/home-safety/res...tion-database/ that would still be plenty of justification for the current regulations on the use of RCDs. I think we all agree RCDs in new installs are a good thing. What was being debated is the merits of retrofitting, where the cost & time involved are a good bit more. There is not that much difference in cost between a new CU installation, and a retrofit IME. The latter takes a little longer, but not dramatically - only enough to label and disconnect the existing wiring. The muddle continues I see. When fitting a new CU, adding RCD protection costs a few tenners and takes maybe a few minutes of extra time connecting neutrals. Retrofitting RCDs requires a new CU installing, costing more money & time. If you haven't got it yet that I'm interested in deaths not injuries, then there's no point us continuing. I understand you have a narrow focus on deaths. That's fine by me. If you are content to tolerate the far more typical outcome of an electric shock, (i.e. pain and injury), rather than spend a couple of hundred preventing / reducing the risk then by all means carry on. I don't accept that assessment However you then go on to give misleading advice to people contemplating on fitting RCDs based on that very narrow viewpoint. For the vast majority of people looking at retrofitting RCDs for the protection of their families, the protection from death aspect is certainly a very "nice to have" bonus, but since its also a very low likelihood occurrence - its not a big part of the decision making process. The real motivation for most will be the greatly enhanced protection from injury and pain that matters more. in your opinion. I'd far rather escape a death scenario to live another day than escape a shock. Well, you're free to show us fatality figures that support that. You never have. All you've offered is junk stats that claim wild levels of injuries. This is precisely one of the reasons such decisions are so often made on mortality, not injury stats, the latter are far less reliable. Not much help when we are trying to prevent injury rather than mortality though... you, not we I am confused since you talk about all these risks that are higher priority, and yet don't seem to be able to state what any of them are. What makes you think that? 2010 mortality: 158k circulatory diseases 141k cancer & neoplasms 67k respiratory diseases 25k digestive diseases 19k dementia & mental disorders 18k nervous system diseases 17k accidents & injuries 12k genitourinary diseases 8k senility 5k diabetes You appreciate we are all going to die from something eventually? I hope you have something more useful to say than the bleeding obvious We are discussing protection from accidental injury in the home, no, you are not long term lifestyle choices / genetic predispositions and eventual outcomes on health. indeed this has nothing to do with genetics Now which of the above can you fix in the home for a couple of hundred quid? As I've said before in this thread, the general concensus among experts is that 50% of deaths due to heart disease & cancer, ie 149,500 deaths each year, can be prevented by eating properly, not smoking and getting a little exercise. A couple of hundred quid covers that. If you'd rather spend your 200 on avoiding an unknown small number of injuries each year that's your call. But don't expect me to say its a good choice. As I've said before. I'm beginning to think no reason will come forth from you on this. If it doesn't I'll call it a day on this thread. NT |
#113
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
wrote in message ... On Friday, 3 July 2015 01:30:27 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: On 30/06/2015 22:11, nt wrote: On Tuesday, 30 June 2015 16:21:45 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: What has the situation in the past got to do with recommendations one would make now? how ever else do you propose to assess what difference smoke alarms have made? Not by making wild claims of huge reductions in death rate and falsely attributing that solely to smoke alarms, that is for sure. As Robin pointed out, peak death occurred at a time when alarms were already well established, and the recent falls in death rate do not correlate well with the numbers of installed alarms. The data point to a much deeper and more nuanced relationship. Sure, I accept that data needs improving. Are you able to offer better figures? (you do realise that people also install smoke alarms for reasons in addition to saving their lives? Or is this another case where you house going up is smoke is of no concern, just that you don't die in the process?) ok, I accept you're not focussed on the biggest risks, and determined to be silly. 'People receiving a mains voltage electric shock per year (15+): 2.5 million* Of whom received a serious injury: 350,000**' Did you read the ** footnote? yes... did you have a point? You are claiming that their figures are implausible, correct. it plainly is. without apparently taking into account their definition of serious injury. The footnote goes some way to explain why the number is so high. the footnotes explain why the claims are so ridiculous. I have explained this before. There is patently no basis for your claim they've been overlooked. If that is correct, we would have, with average life expectancy apx 80, 80x350,000 people in the uk who have been seriously injured by The figures are for those over 15 anyway, and if including those who are 80 now, they would predate modern wiring practices. yes... So your sums are nonsense as well. no, they're just rough ballpark which is enough to make the point. Feel free to offer better figures if you have them. You are also assuming that those shocked each year are unique - when in reality some adults will be far more likely to receive a shock than others. You will have many "serial offenders" here. I don't recall making that assumption the "80x350,000 people" sum was a bit of a give away. if you want to calculate it more precisely, despite the huge changes in wiring safety over the years, you're free to provide the necessary figures and calculate it. A ballpark is all it takes to make the relevant point. shock. That's 28 million! The most basic sanity check shows that to be wildly unrealistic. How many people have you met who claim to have *never* received an electrical shock? can't say I've asked. Why would I? Many would meet the "serious" injury threshold set out in the footnote. which is not, in any sensible definition, serious injury No, it shows you did not read the footnote. Their definition of serious injury : **Based on a survey of 4,032 adults in Great Britain aged 15+ who have personally experienced an electric shock that resulted in injury while at home or in the garden in the past twelve months including all those who experienced one or more of the following injuries: Severe pain, Skin burn without scarring, Bruising from a fall or severe muscular contraction, Temporary blindness, Heartbeat disturbance, Persistent pain or numbness, Higher blood pressure, Skin burn with scarring, Broken bone(s), Difficulty breathing.' At the risk of stating the utterly obvious, more or less all mains shocks involve considerable pain. Indeed. That is also part of the justification for using RCDs - they limit the duration of the shock and greatly reduce the pain. Its also normal to experience elevated heart rate & blood pressure. None of these, according to any sensible definition, constitute serious injury. Permanently elevated heart rate and blood pressure certainly count as serious injury. Even temporary elevation will be a serious complication for people with certain pre-existing conditions. for most it does not constitute any injury, let alone serious injury Nor do Bruises. The data is complete bunk. The data (while questionable) are by no means bunk. They have elevated the figures by including some types of injury that one might argue are less serious. However it is also very clear that even if the figures were an order of magnitude out, for what you consider to be a serious injury, clearly they're a good 2 orders of magnitude out for _any_ injury. you still have more than adequate justification for fitting RCDs, and at worst, comparable justification to that for fitting smoke alarms. A number of which are recoverable from. From memory, there was something like 5k - 10k in the most serious categories a little different to 2.5 million then! You do understand that not *all* shocks result in broken bones or cardiac arrest? shaking head The 2.5 million figure is the estimate of the number of mains voltage shocks received by adults each year - not those enduring life changing effects. Are you now being deliberately obtuse? shocks yes, not serious injuries as you claim. It would be bizarre to call pointing out the massive difference obtuse And to make that more precise, since shock protection measures have greatly improved in the last 80 years, the actual figure would be far higher, if their claim were true. You always need to look at the source and assess the data. Its pretty obvious they're a group promoting increase of electrical safety, and pretty obvious that a lot of people mislead & even lie routinely when they have an agenda to pursue. I fully accept they have an agenda, and that they have over stated the figures for serious injury by including less serious injuries into the "serious" category. However, Even if 10x out (which is unlikely) I agree 10x is unlikely. 100-1000x is far more likely. ISTR an estimate of 600x from a few years ago, but don't remember where it came from. Even 1000x would be one serious injury per day. The hospital treatment stats I have seen in the past indicate the figure is well above that however. Still we should be able to resolve this question shortly: http://www.rospa.com/home-safety/res...tion-database/ that would still be plenty of justification for the current regulations on the use of RCDs. I think we all agree RCDs in new installs are a good thing. What was being debated is the merits of retrofitting, where the cost & time involved are a good bit more. There is not that much difference in cost between a new CU installation, and a retrofit IME. The latter takes a little longer, but not dramatically - only enough to label and disconnect the existing wiring. The muddle continues I see. When fitting a new CU, adding RCD protection costs a few tenners and takes maybe a few minutes of extra time connecting neutrals. Retrofitting RCDs requires a new CU installing, costing more money & time. If you haven't got it yet that I'm interested in deaths not injuries, then there's no point us continuing. I understand you have a narrow focus on deaths. That's fine by me. If you are content to tolerate the far more typical outcome of an electric shock, (i.e. pain and injury), rather than spend a couple of hundred preventing / reducing the risk then by all means carry on. I don't accept that assessment However you then go on to give misleading advice to people contemplating on fitting RCDs based on that very narrow viewpoint. For the vast majority of people looking at retrofitting RCDs for the protection of their families, the protection from death aspect is certainly a very "nice to have" bonus, but since its also a very low likelihood occurrence - its not a big part of the decision making process. The real motivation for most will be the greatly enhanced protection from injury and pain that matters more. in your opinion. I'd far rather escape a death scenario to live another day than escape a shock. Well, you're free to show us fatality figures that support that. You never have. All you've offered is junk stats that claim wild levels of injuries. This is precisely one of the reasons such decisions are so often made on mortality, not injury stats, the latter are far less reliable. Not much help when we are trying to prevent injury rather than mortality though... you, not we I am confused since you talk about all these risks that are higher priority, and yet don't seem to be able to state what any of them are. What makes you think that? 2010 mortality: 158k circulatory diseases 141k cancer & neoplasms 67k respiratory diseases 25k digestive diseases 19k dementia & mental disorders 18k nervous system diseases 17k accidents & injuries 12k genitourinary diseases 8k senility 5k diabetes You appreciate we are all going to die from something eventually? I hope you have something more useful to say than the bleeding obvious We are discussing protection from accidental injury in the home, no, you are not long term lifestyle choices / genetic predispositions and eventual outcomes on health. indeed this has nothing to do with genetics Now which of the above can you fix in the home for a couple of hundred quid? As I've said before in this thread, the general concensus among experts is that 50% of deaths due to heart disease & cancer, ie 149,500 deaths each year, can be prevented by eating properly, not smoking and getting a little exercise. That is very arguable indeed given that you have to die of something and you are still likely to die of either heart disease or cancer. It would be more accurate to say that you may well be able to delay dying of either of those since you will likely die of one or the other eventually. A couple of hundred quid covers that. That is very arguable too. If you'd rather spend your 200 on avoiding an unknown small number of injuries each year that's your call. But don't expect me to say its a good choice. It makes more sense to do both. As I've said before. I'm beginning to think no reason will come forth from you on this. If it doesn't I'll call it a day on this thread. |
#114
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Sunday, 5 July 2015 00:11:44 UTC+1, ratsack wrote:
nt wrote in message ... On Friday, 3 July 2015 01:30:27 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: Now which of the above can you fix in the home for a couple of hundred quid? As I've said before in this thread, the general concensus among experts is that 50% of deaths due to heart disease & cancer, ie 149,500 deaths each year, can be prevented by eating properly, not smoking and getting a little exercise. That is very arguable indeed given that you have to die of something and you are still likely to die of either heart disease or cancer. It would be more accurate to say that you may well be able to delay dying of either of those since you will likely die of one or the other eventually. ijcba A couple of hundred quid covers that. That is very arguable too. of course there are ways yuo can waste money, doing the right things is cheap. If you'd rather spend your Ł200 on avoiding an unknown small number of injuries each year that's your call. But don't expect me to say its a good choice. It makes more sense to do both. It makes more sense to put your risks in order and tackle the ones that are largest and you can have most effect on. RCDs are a drop in the ocean. NT |
#115
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
wrote in message
... It makes more sense to put your risks in order and tackle the ones that are largest and you can have most effect on. RCDs are a drop in the ocean. So what are you going to spend your money on then? Talking ******** is free and my last reply to you was to go and **** yourself. I suggest thet you go and do it. -- Adam |
#116
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On Sunday, 5 July 2015 18:17:11 UTC+1, ARW wrote:
nt wrote in message ... It makes more sense to put your risks in order and tackle the ones that are largest and you can have most effect on. RCDs are a drop in the ocean. So what are you going to spend your money on then? Talking ******** is free and my last reply to you was to go and **** yourself. I suggest thet you go and do it. useful as always NT |
#117
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
wrote in message
... On Sunday, 5 July 2015 18:17:11 UTC+1, ARW wrote: nt wrote in message ... It makes more sense to put your risks in order and tackle the ones that are largest and you can have most effect on. RCDs are a drop in the ocean. So what are you going to spend your money on then? Talking ******** is free and my last reply to you was to go and **** yourself. I suggest thet you go and do it. useful as always And honest. -- Adam |
#118
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
In message , ARW
writes wrote in message ... It makes more sense to put your risks in order and tackle the ones that are largest and you can have most effect on. RCDs are a drop in the ocean. So what are you going to spend your money on then? I was going to sit down and rate my risks, but I've spent so long reading this argument that I'm just about to peg it....... -- Chris French |
#119
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
wrote in message ... On Sunday, 5 July 2015 00:11:44 UTC+1, ratsack wrote: nt wrote in message ... On Friday, 3 July 2015 01:30:27 UTC+1, John Rumm wrote: Now which of the above can you fix in the home for a couple of hundred quid? As I've said before in this thread, the general concensus among experts is that 50% of deaths due to heart disease & cancer, ie 149,500 deaths each year, can be prevented by eating properly, not smoking and getting a little exercise. That is very arguable indeed given that you have to die of something and you are still likely to die of either heart disease or cancer. It would be more accurate to say that you may well be able to delay dying of either of those since you will likely die of one or the other eventually. ijcba A couple of hundred quid covers that. That is very arguable too. of course there are ways yuo can waste money, doing the right things is cheap. It is very arguable indeed that spending a couple of hundred quid would eliminate half the deaths from due to heart disease & cancer. If you'd rather spend your Ł200 on avoiding an unknown small number of injuries each year that's your call. But don't expect me to say its a good choice. It makes more sense to do both. It makes more sense to put your risks in order and tackle the ones that are largest and you can have most effect on. No, it makes more sense to eliminate all risks that you can eliminate for that sort of relatively small cost. It clearly isn't feasible to have just single story houses and no stairs anywhere, but clearly doesnt cost much to mandate RCDs over the life of the property. RCDs are a drop in the ocean. But still worth doing, particularly worth mandating for new work. |
#120
Posted to uk.d-i-y
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Do I need to update my house's fuse box?
On 04/07/2015 22:57, wrote:
Not by making wild claims of huge reductions in death rate and falsely attributing that solely to smoke alarms, that is for sure. As Robin pointed out, peak death occurred at a time when alarms were already well established, and the recent falls in death rate do not correlate well with the numbers of installed alarms. The data point to a much deeper and more nuanced relationship. Sure, I accept that data needs improving. Are you able to offer better figures? What I posted were the best I have found on the fire stats so far. (you do realise that people also install smoke alarms for reasons in addition to saving their lives? Or is this another case where you house going up is smoke is of no concern, just that you don't die in the process?) ok, I accept you're not focussed on the biggest risks, and determined to be silly. You define "big risk" very narrowly as "most likely to kill you". This is an absurdly narrow definition of risk that has potential to greatly distort and misinform. Take an example... you are a bomb disposal operative. Someone says to you: Here, we have developed a new mine protection suit, its so good, we have tested it, and shown that in the event of a mine strike, you have only a 0.001% chance of being killed. So why don't you wander off into that minefield? Now if we apply your logic, that's fine - wade right in there, is only a 1 in 100,000 chance of being killed - not even worth worrying about - more risky crossing a road. However your narrow focus has stopped you asking the relevant questions. Like "what are the chances of being hit in the first place?" Well past experience shows that 25% of operators were blown up who did enter. Still want to go in? How many were seriously injured? 50%. What kind of injuries? We only count loss of two or more limbs as "serious". Still keen? - still only a 1 in 10k chance of being killed... How many people have you met who claim to have *never* received an electrical shock? can't say I've asked. Why would I? Many would meet the "serious" injury threshold set out in the footnote. which is not, in any sensible definition, serious injury Not *all* of them sure, but some of them, very clearly are. A number of which are recoverable from. From memory, there was something like 5k - 10k in the most serious categories a little different to 2.5 million then! You do understand that not *all* shocks result in broken bones or cardiac arrest? shaking head Its a simple concept - try harder. The 2.5 million figure is the estimate of the number of mains voltage shocks received by adults each year - not those enduring life changing effects. Are you now being deliberately obtuse? shocks yes, not serious injuries as you claim. Do you need subtitles for the hard of comprehending? Try this; Millions shocked, tens of thousands hurt badly enough to need hospital treatment. Thousands left with permanent effects. How much do you think each of those hospital visits cost? Bet even the most minor is many times the price of a new CU. When fitting a new CU, adding RCD protection costs a few tenners So you get the CU and MCBs free then on new installs? Let's have the name of your wholesaler? and takes maybe a few minutes of extra time connecting neutrals. Retrofitting RCDs requires a new CU installing, costing more money & time. So new fit costs 1 CU + MCBs + RCDs + Time Retrofit costs 1 CU + MCBs + RCDs + a little bit more time Extra 50 perhaps? in your opinion. I'd far rather escape a death scenario to live another day than escape a shock. I would rather do both. Not much help when we are trying to prevent injury rather than mortality though... you, not we Who is "we"? Take a vote... 2010 mortality: 158k circulatory diseases 141k cancer & neoplasms 67k respiratory diseases 25k digestive diseases 19k dementia & mental disorders 18k nervous system diseases 17k accidents & injuries 12k genitourinary diseases 8k senility 5k diabetes You appreciate we are all going to die from something eventually? I hope you have something more useful to say than the bleeding obvious We are discussing protection from accidental injury in the home, no, you are And I suspect a few others... still I am done now. not long term lifestyle choices / genetic predispositions and eventual outcomes on health. indeed this has nothing to do with genetics 158k circulatory diseases - nothing to do with genetics? You may find the medical profession have different views. I'm beginning to think no reason will come forth from you on this. If it doesn't I'll call it a day on this thread. I have... -- Cheers, John. /================================================== ===============\ | Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk | |-----------------------------------------------------------------| | John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk | \================================================= ================/ |
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