"Clark Magnuson" wrote in message
...

Global warming is a litmus test for junk science. Humans simply do not
make

enough CO2 to affect climates.

I have to admit I'm really impressed with the number of confident,
conversant environmental-science experts we have on this newsgroup. Global
warming is a subject I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot flood gauge, because I
don't have the four or five spare years of full-time study necessary to form
an opinion worth the powder to blow it to hell.

d8-)

--
Ed Huntress

First of all, global warming is a myth. We are actually heading into
the next ice age.
I'm certainly not an expert and I haven't really investigated the issue
in a whle, so I'm not making any claims about global warming one way or
the other.

With that said, I just ran across the following quote (from
metafiler.com)


"The strongest evidence yet that global warming has been triggered by
human activity has emerged from a major study of rising temperatures in
the world's oceans. The present trend of warmer sea temperatures,
which have risen by an average of half a degree Celsius (0.9F) over the
past 40 years, can be explained only if greenhouse gas emissions are
responsible, new research has revealed. The results are so compelling
that they should end controversy about the causes of climate change,
one of the scientists who led the study said yesterday. "The debate
about whether there is a global warming signal now is over, at least
for rational people," said Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography in La Jolla, California. "The models got it right. If a
politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe
these models, that is no longer tenable."

The quote is from the Times (UK):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFr...9955-3,00.html.

Back to "lurk mode".

jim rozen wrote:
My understanding from talking to the folks who did a lot of this
is that you are correct. They were just trying to save two digits
in the data, multiplied by a lot of data files.

Yes, but THEY DID IT STUPIDLY!!!! In the same space (2 bytes) it takes
to store the two digits, they should have stored 16 bits worth of
information, which buys you 2^16=64K years of dates. Anybody who
seriously considered storing the 4 numeric digits as 4 bytes should be
shot, even posthumously.

Everybody needs a "THINK!" sign right in front of their workspace,
especially now.

Pete

'One of the processes that concerns me is what I call the "Karma Vertigo
Effect." We have an extraordinary amount of what you could call karma in
this generation, because this generation is creating the computer
network and the infrastructure of computer software that will be running
for a thousand years. I call it the Karma Vertigo Effect because when
you realize how much karma we have in this generation, you get vertigo!'

Jaron Lanier (Virtual Reality pioneer)

Ed Huntress wrote:
environmental-science experts
--
Ed Huntress


I think a very large percentage of those are in the same
category as I place all "social science" experts. :-)
...lew...

Pete Bergstrom wrote:

jim rozen wrote:
In article , Gunner says...
So you are claiming that the issue was intentionally caused by
programmers 5-15 yrs prior?
Well actually it was. "Back when I was a boy" (or as my daughter
says 'back when dinosaurs roamed the earth...') every bit of
memory cost. Figure all those data files had a date in there, if
you could save 32 bits somehow in each one, that adds up after
a while.

You'd only save that much memory if you were foolish enough to use BCD
or some other inefficient storage scheme. You can store a whole lot of
years in 16 bits, even without going to the trouble of normalizing to a
common date (as Unix did). The problem was, they probably used 16 bits
of space to store the 2 digit year values anyway: "Gee, let's store
numeric data as an ASCII text field, that'll simplify life *so* much."

Hence the XX year format rather than XXXX.

But honestly I figure they just wanted to see that they'd
have jobs right around the year 1999.

I disagree, it was probably a hardware constraint (16 bits max on a hard
drive) plus a shortsighted perspective on how long the machines would be
around. Honeywell decommissioned the last of its GECOS mainframes (many
dating from the '60s) just before Y2K by replacing them with Oracle
applications and databases running on Unix boxes. A smart move, in my
opinion, and I had nothing to do with the decision or the implementation.

Right now I'd feel safe in limiting my databases to Y64K (16 bits) and
it wouldn't be about assuring some contract work when the limit is reached.

Pete

I wrote computer programs on small machines in the 70's and I can assure I was
not considering my job security in 2000. My event horizon at that time was
at most 2 years.

Ray Spinhirne

In article , stanley baer
wrote:

I know that global warming is not talked about too much in the US, but
you guys seem like a pretty well informed bunch and I am curious what
your ideas would be concerning the following.

I have done a bit of reading on global warming and its possible effects.
Even if there is only a 30% chance that what the scientists predict
actually happens, I would like to be prepared. As I understand it, the
effects of global warming will not really hit hard for the next 15-20
years, but after that things may get ugly (large scale droughts, change
in ocean currents, rising sea levels etc.)

What would you guys do if you were 35 years old, had a family and wanted
to protect them from the possible chaos that these changes will cause
due to food shortages, economic depression, mass migration from hard hit
parts of the globe and all the social unrest that will accompany all this.

I live near Toronto in Canada, I have thought about buying farm land in
the area. Though fertile and unlikely to suffer from drought, it is
relatively expensive due to the high population density. I am also
afraid that if things got bad enough, trying to be self sufficient in a
highly populated area would be next to impossible as the starving masses
from the nearby cities would constanly be looting your land.

My friends think I am a bit of a nutcase when I mention what is on my
mind and either dismiss me as being overly pessimistic or are resigned
to going down with a sinking ship. I feel better if I am getting
prepared. What strategies would you guys suggest.

Off the top of my head:

1. Learn basic sanitation and water purification.
2. Be comfortable around firearms. Learn to shoot and clean a gun.
3. Get a good first aid kit and learn to use it.
4. Find 5 people within 100 miles that you trust with your life and
stay in contact with them.
5. Eat less.
6. Get a bicycle and two sets of spare tires. Ride it 10 miles a week.
7. Consider what you would bring with you if you had to leave your home
in 10 min. and never return.
8. Familiarize yourself with the basics of vegetable gardening & animal
husbandry.
9. Learn a skill (metalworking?) that will be valuable to a low-tech
community.
10. Learn to distinguish truth from bull****.

-Frank

--
fwarner1-at-franksknives-dot-com
Here's some of my work:
http://www.franksknives.com/

I live near Toronto in Canada, I have thought about buying farm land in
the area. Though fertile and unlikely to suffer from drought, it is
relatively expensive due to the high population density. I am also
afraid that if things got bad enough, trying to be self sufficient in a
highly populated area would be next to impossible as the starving masses
from the nearby cities would constanly be looting your land.

I had the same problem when I lived in MD. I solved it by moving to TN,
I figure it saved me 1/3 Million after tax money when I bought my farm.

--
Free men own guns, slaves don't
www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5357/

In article , Frank J Warner
says...

My friends think I am a bit of a nutcase when I mention what is on my
mind and either dismiss me as being overly pessimistic or are resigned
to going down with a sinking ship. I feel better if I am getting
prepared. What strategies would you guys suggest.

Off the top of my head:

1. Learn basic sanitation and water purification.
2. Be comfortable around firearms. Learn to shoot and clean a gun.
3. Get a good first aid kit and learn to use it.
4. Find 5 people within 100 miles that you trust with your life and
stay in contact with them.
5. Eat less.
6. Get a bicycle and two sets of spare tires. Ride it 10 miles a week.
7. Consider what you would bring with you if you had to leave your home
in 10 min. and never return.
8. Familiarize yourself with the basics of vegetable gardening & animal
husbandry.
9. Learn a skill (metalworking?) that will be valuable to a low-tech
community.
10. Learn to distinguish truth from bull****.

Interesting. I think you and gunner are on the same wavelength.

1 - check. 2 - check. 3 - I should do this. 4 - check. 5 - hmm.
6 - sigh. This I should *really* do. 8 - a good idea. 9 - check.
10 - :^)

I saved seven for last.

Because it's the hardest one to answer. Here you are talking
*things*, not people, right? (if people, am I allowed to choose
some that don't live here now?)

If things, then I guess the first catagory might be portable
wealth. Funds, credit cards, etc might go in this catagory.

It would also depend on where I was going, and if I knew
where I was going. Also, how would I be travelling?

Does it all have to fit in my pockets, in a pack, or in my
pickup?

Jim


--
==================================================
please reply to:
JRR(zero) at pkmfgvm4 (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com
==================================================

In article KY3Rd.102260$mt.83243@fed1read03, SteveB
wrote:

I figure that I have maybe 25 years left on this rock. 25 years in the span
of geologic history is a nanosecond. Nothing is going to really take place
in my lifretime.

If you are so afraid of global warming, I suggest you go get an air
conditioned closet, lay in some supplies, go in there and lock the door, and
never come out.

For those of us who like to live every day and enjoy life, it will go on as
usual.

I just saw on TV where an asteroid will pass within 24,000 miles of the
earth in 2029. If there is anything that one should be concerned about, it
is something like that. An asteroid collision could end life as we know it
in about six weeks. They say that the asteroid should be visible from Great
Britain. I hope I am around then, but doubt it. In the meantime, I shall
continue my hedonistic ways of beer, football, fishing, motorhoming,
metalworking, traveling, enjoying my grandchildren, eating, making love, and
all the other stuff.

I hope you are comfy in your closet. You could always move to Kalifornicate
and run around waving your arms in the air like all the other loonies.

I was born and raised and still live in California and I can assure you
that most of us don't do that.

I don't know about global warming. I'm inclined to believe the
scientists who study the subject, and most of them are concerned about
something to some degree great or small depending on who you listen to.
Just like most of you are very good at what you do, so are they, and
for that reason alone we should probably be listening, at least a
little.

But even if global warming doesn't end civilization as we know it, lots
of other things can, and nearly all of them are man-made. From civil
wars to nuclear wars to degradation of the environment to depletion of
natural resources to a takeover of the infrastructure by idealistic
morons and religious freaks, the list is endless. And we shouldn't
forget that something very similar has happened before. To Greece. To
Rome. To the high Chinese and Egyptian Dynasties. To Moorish Arabia. To
indigenous ancient Western civilizations like the Aztec and Inca.

If you (that's a collective 'you,' not you personally) think American
civilization is invincible and will last forever, you make the same
mistake the pashas and the emperors and the priests and the khans made,
just before their civilizations went down the toilet. It can (and
almost certainly will) happen to us, too. It's just a matter of time
and the right circumstances.

So, no, don't hide in the closet. But be ready. Listen when others (who
know their jobs) tell you something. Protect what you have and realize
how easy it might be to lose it all.

-Frank

--
Here's some of my work:
http://www.franksknives.com

Tim Killian wrote:

Here's a good dissertation on some of the problems with the science
surrounding the issue of global warming:

http://www.crichton-official.com/spe...s_quote04.html

B.B. wrote:


What's junky about the global warming science?


Tim, thanks for posting that link to the lecture by Michael Crichton.

I have been struggling for some time with those who place the opinion of
experts or consensus to be above criticism.
I am sure I commit the same errors, but that doesn't make it right.

--
Be careful what you pray for, it can happen.

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
I have to admit I'm really impressed with the number of confident,
conversant environmental-science experts we have on this newsgroup. Global
warming is a subject I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot flood gauge, because
I
don't have the four or five spare years of full-time study necessary to
form
an opinion worth the powder to blow it to hell.

I've been following the science for over 10 years and can distill it into
one sentence.
It's a cash cow for scientists.

The most credible and sober expert is Richard S. Lindzen.

Confirming..that programmers intentionally set up the 2 digit format
to ensure job security at Y2k?


I know a programmer who argued that Y2K was hype and hoax and argued
with another person [a conspiracy buff] who argued back that it was a
big deal and converted his wealth to gold.
The programmer had a banking problem with auto bill paying, and the
conspiracy guy was stuck with gold and bottled water in his condo.
They were both wrong.

Frank J Warner wrote:

1. Learn basic sanitation and water purification.
2. Be comfortable around firearms. Learn to shoot and clean a gun.

3. Get a good first aid kit and learn to use it.

You want something a little more than a basic first aid kit, especially
a modern one that has nothing that might be allergic. Reminds me of the
medical case/first aid kit that had bottles of everything for all sorts
of problems for a weeks of camping away. You really need something like
this and more, because the "bears" or whatever you have are probably
survivable (fire arms = food), but it is the "bugs" that will get you.


6. Get a bicycle and two sets of spare tires. Ride it 10 miles a week.
That is the start of a whole recipe for disaster. {:-) Sure it will
keep you fit, but eventually thinking about the list below you will
start adding racks, panniers, a one wheel trailer, a two wheel trailer,
...........



7. Consider what you would bring with you if you had to leave your home
in 10 min. and never return.

This is more than just thinking about what is important, it is actually
a survival skill. If you are in the city and your plan is to escape to
the countryside, you have ten minutes to chuck your bicycle and stuff
into your vehicle and hit the road so you are in front of the exodus
wave. Unless you are in front of that wave, you are soon going to end up
in a traffic jam, or stranded without fuel as everyone suddenly tanks up
to leave or move on.

On 18 Feb 2005 13:25:49 -0800, wrote:

First of all, global warming is a myth. We are actually heading into
the next ice age.
I'm certainly not an expert and I haven't really investigated the issue
in a whle, so I'm not making any claims about global warming one way or
the other.

With that said, I just ran across the following quote (from
metafiler.com)


"The strongest evidence yet that global warming has been triggered by
human activity has emerged from a major study of rising temperatures in
the world's oceans. The present trend of warmer sea temperatures,
which have risen by an average of half a degree Celsius (0.9F) over the
past 40 years, can be explained only if greenhouse gas emissions are
responsible, new research has revealed. The results are so compelling
that they should end controversy about the causes of climate change,
one of the scientists who led the study said yesterday. "The debate
about whether there is a global warming signal now is over, at least
for rational people," said Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography in La Jolla, California. "The models got it right. If a
politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe
these models, that is no longer tenable."

The quote is from the Times (UK):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFr...9955-3,00.html.

Back to "lurk mode".

http://naturalscience.com/ns/cover/cover5.html

http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.co...s/Ice_Age.html

Is a New Ice Age Under Way?

by Laurence Hecht

“Watch out, Al Gore. The glaciers will get you!” With that appended
note, my friend, retired field geologist Jack Sauers, forwarded to me
a report that should have been a lead item in every newspaper in the
world. It was the news that the best-measured glacier in North
America, the Nisqually on Mount Rainier, has been growing since 1931.

The significance of the fact, immediately grasped by any competent
climatologist, is that glacial advance is an early warning sign of
Northern Hemisphere chilling of the sort that can bring on an Ice Age.
The last Little Ice Age continued from about 1400 to 1850. It was
followed by a period of slight warming. There are a growing number of
signs that we may be descending into another Little Ice Age—all the
mountains of “global warming” propaganda aside.

Our current understanding of the long-term climate cycles shows that
for the past 800,000 years, periods of approximately 100,000 years’
duration, called Ice Ages, have been interrupted by periods of
approximately 10,000 years, known as Interglacials. (We are now about
10,500 years into the present Interglacial.)

snip

G

Gunner

It's better to be a red person in a blue state
than a blue person in a red state. As a red
person, if your blue neighbors turn into a mob
at least you have a gun to protect yourself.
As a blue person, your only hope is to appease
the red mob with herbal tea and marinated tofu.

(Phil Garding)

On 18 Feb 2005 18:47:05 -0800, jim rozen
wrote:

In article , Frank J Warner
says...

My friends think I am a bit of a nutcase when I mention what is on my
mind and either dismiss me as being overly pessimistic or are resigned
to going down with a sinking ship. I feel better if I am getting
prepared. What strategies would you guys suggest.

Off the top of my head:

1. Learn basic sanitation and water purification.
2. Be comfortable around firearms. Learn to shoot and clean a gun.
3. Get a good first aid kit and learn to use it.
4. Find 5 people within 100 miles that you trust with your life and
stay in contact with them.
5. Eat less.
6. Get a bicycle and two sets of spare tires. Ride it 10 miles a week.
7. Consider what you would bring with you if you had to leave your home
in 10 min. and never return.
8. Familiarize yourself with the basics of vegetable gardening & animal
husbandry.
9. Learn a skill (metalworking?) that will be valuable to a low-tech
community.
10. Learn to distinguish truth from bull****.

Interesting. I think you and gunner are on the same wavelength.

1 - check. 2 - check. 3 - I should do this. 4 - check. 5 - hmm.
6 - sigh. This I should *really* do. 8 - a good idea. 9 - check.
10 - :^)

I saved seven for last.

Because it's the hardest one to answer. Here you are talking
*things*, not people, right? (if people, am I allowed to choose
some that don't live here now?)

If things, then I guess the first catagory might be portable
wealth. Funds, credit cards, etc might go in this catagory.

It would also depend on where I was going, and if I knew
where I was going. Also, how would I be travelling?

Does it all have to fit in my pockets, in a pack, or in my
pickup?

Jim

Keep in mind..that depending on the type of emergency that is causing
you to flee..plastic or non cash may be simply worthless.

Many people spent considerable time sleeping on the sidewalk in NYC
not long ago, as the ATM machines were off line. Same with the last
few hurricanes. Few people have the old style card imprinter anymore
and if the phone lines are down..forget using the card. A wide spread
emergency may cause no one to take a check either. How can it be
verified? Cash is always king.

On what we call "bug out bags" or BoBs...there are several
philosophies.

72 hour bag. This will allow you to eat, drink, wash and care for
yourself for a 72 hour period. This is the most commonly developed
bag for most of us. This will allow you to get somewhere in a
reasonable amount of time. One per individual of course. Small
children will need theirs spread out over the parents bags, but they
should, after a certain age, carry something...

A 72 hour bag may be also used for sheltering in place..though if you
are at home..you should of course have far more supplies than simply
for 72 hours.

Some examples...

http://theepicenter.com/tow09036.html
http://members.1stconnect.com/anozir...t_72hr_kit.htm
http://www.ci.westminster.co.us/res/ps/em/emer_2940.htm
http://www.provo.org/emergency/Perso...hour_kits.html
http://www-suares.stanford.edu/72hour-kit.html
http://www.ywconnection.com/Activiit...itsinacan.html

As you will notice..several are from City governments.

From FEMA
http://www.fema.gov/rrr/supplies.shtm
American Red Cross
http://www.redcross.org/services/dis...0_601_,00.html

(of course we all know that city governments, FEMA and the Red Cross
are well known paranoid organizations)

No one kit will serve everyone. You may live in a place where water is
plentiful, or scarce. Where its hot or cold, moderate or 4 seasons. (I
have a number of kits designated Winter or Summer)
You may have medical needs such as insulin, or heart medications which
will need to be stored seperately..ie refrigerated etc.

Id strongly avoid purchasing a ready made kit off the net. They tend
to be poorly filled, over priced and generic. You can make up kits
for you and your family far cheaper, with better ingredients,
customized for your needs, by simply looking over the links above, and
making a list of your own, then shopping at discount houses, can
storesand looking for sales, both online and in your area.

A car or truck bag may be better for you, or not...and of course a
bigger "unit" is indicated for home use, if you "selter in place"...
also known as "bugging in"

My truck kit is designed with the fact I drive very long distances in
varied terrain, from seaside to high desert. It never leaves the
truck, and its edible contents are rotated regularly, and during
summer, more water is added and the winter gear is removed, and when
winter comes, the summer based gear is removed and winter gear added.

Ive been carrying such a bag for at least 25 yrs, in one form or
another.

My whole philosophy is to survive and make it home,where Im far better
stocked, and its in a "safe" location. I plan in most cases to "bug
in", hunker down and wait it out.

I live in earthquake country. My preps are a bit different than if I
lived in tornado country, or hurricane country, or blizzard country.

When I lost my house in the Coalinga Earthquake in 1983, my preps
allowed my family to do quite well for several weeks, and to shelter
and feed quite a number of my neighbors who previously thought I was a
bit of a nutter for considering some sort of emergency that couldnt be
fixed by simply calling 9-11

Gunner

It's better to be a red person in a blue state
than a blue person in a red state. As a red
person, if your blue neighbors turn into a mob
at least you have a gun to protect yourself.
As a blue person, your only hope is to appease
the red mob with herbal tea and marinated tofu.

(Phil Garding)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 19:57:59 -0800, Frank J Warner
wrote:

So, no, don't hide in the closet. But be ready. Listen when others (who
know their jobs) tell you something. Protect what you have and realize
how easy it might be to lose it all.

-Frank

Not all emergencies are wide spread, or natural or politicaly caused.
Some of you may remember my difficulties in 2000 caused by a wife who
gutted the bank accounts, didnt pay the bills for months and split.

I managed to survive by eating and using the stocks Id put aside for
"just in case" prior to Y2K.

Catastophic medical expenses, unexpected job loss etc are others that
may require you to have to rough it for a bit.

Shrug...nothing like having enough nuriousing food on hand to keep the
body and soul together and not have to depend on charity or welfare
(even if you qualified).

Its not the odds, its the stakes.

Gunner

It's better to be a red person in a blue state
than a blue person in a red state. As a red
person, if your blue neighbors turn into a mob
at least you have a gun to protect yourself.
As a blue person, your only hope is to appease
the red mob with herbal tea and marinated tofu.

(Phil Garding)

"Frank J Warner" wrote in message
news:180220051957594684%warnerf@veriSPAMMERSDIEzon .net...
In article KY3Rd.102260$mt.83243@fed1read03, SteveB
wrote:


I hope you are comfy in your closet. You could always move to
Kalifornicate
and run around waving your arms in the air like all the other loonies.

I was born and raised and still live in California and I can assure you
that most of us don't do that.

I was not speaking of the people who live in California, but that state of
mind where the bizarre is the norm, Kalifornicate. Where, just when you
think you've seen and heard EVERYTHING, one of the citizens comes up with
something really really out there.


I don't know about global warming. I'm inclined to believe the
scientists who study the subject, and most of them are concerned about
something to some degree great or small depending on who you listen to.
Just like most of you are very good at what you do, so are they, and
for that reason alone we should probably be listening, at least a
little.

SOME of them are very good at what they do. I wouldn't trust SOME of them
to flip my Big Mac. Being overeducated and tenured does not make a person
right. It just gives them a bigger soapbox to spout from. Government
"scientists" rarely give this bit of information: the US government is one
of the biggest users of HFCs in the world, yet have zero accountability.
The old Golden Rule comes in: he who has the gold makes the rules.


But even if global warming doesn't end civilization as we know it, lots
of other things can, and nearly all of them are man-made. From civil
wars to nuclear wars to degradation of the environment to depletion of
natural resources to a takeover of the infrastructure by idealistic
morons and religious freaks, the list is endless. And we shouldn't
forget that something very similar has happened before. To Greece. To
Rome. To the high Chinese and Egyptian Dynasties. To Moorish Arabia. To
indigenous ancient Western civilizations like the Aztec and Inca.


And we shouldn't forget that the end of the world has been prophesied, and
that there is something/someone that will save us all.

If you (that's a collective 'you,' not you personally) think American
civilization is invincible and will last forever, you make the same
mistake the pashas and the emperors and the priests and the khans made,
just before their civilizations went down the toilet. It can (and
almost certainly will) happen to us, too. It's just a matter of time
and the right circumstances.

So, get on with your life. (that's a collective 'you,' not you personally)


So, no, don't hide in the closet. But be ready. Listen when others (who
know their jobs) tell you something. Protect what you have and realize
how easy it might be to lose it all.

If one is that paranoid, join all the others in the closet who are living
their lives in misery, afraid of what MIGHT happen, or what is going to
happen. As for others who "know their jobs", aren't these people human, and
subject to error? Many are biased, or politically or monetarily motivated.
Some are just plain neurotic or paranoid. BUT, they have a degree, and just
live better than the homeless by using all the products and conveniences
they rail against.


-Frank


I am going to continue my consumer based lifestyle. I will just turn down
my AC a few degrees.

Steve

"Terry Collins" wrote

7. Consider what you would bring with you if you had to leave your home
in 10 min. and never return.

This is more than just thinking about what is important, it is actually
a survival skill. If you are in the city and your plan is to escape to
the countryside, you have ten minutes to chuck your bicycle and stuff
into your vehicle and hit the road so you are in front of the exodus
wave. Unless you are in front of that wave, you are soon going to end up
in a traffic jam, or stranded without fuel as everyone suddenly tanks up
to leave or move on.

Ah, a light in the darkness. A man with some reason. Thank you, Terry for
being an oasis in a desert of PC rants.

I have thought of what might happen if this scenario unfolds. It goes
something like this.

GO TO THE COUNTRYSIDE? HAVE YOU BEEN SMOKING CRACK?

The wave of humanity moves inland over the roads.

People overwhelm local supplies of gasoline by their sheer numbers, and
people are fighting and killing of each other to get gas. Gas is stolen
from local vehicles. Any local vehicle that is full of gas is stolen, and a
dead empty car left in its place. Deliveries can't be made because of
traffic jams and shut down pipelines and distribution centers.

Some people who have big gas tanks or extra gas are headed inland and will
make it. I have heard the mountains and countryside as a destination. But
the people who already live there will be defending their land and stocks
from the horde of city locusts. Warfare will take place for food, water,
and shelter.

People will only be able to bring so much "stuff" in their Volvo. Probably
DVDs, CDs, jewelry, Cuisinarts, good cigars, a marijuana stash, designer
perfumes, Gucci shoes, and such, and not so strong on things like survival
gear. They will be ill equipped to camp out, and subsistance hunt.

The fanatics who have already moved out to the countryside and mountains
will have target practice on these new untrained newbies. Those who have
set up home food storage programs will bunker in, but will be beseiged, just
as ancient cities were. They will be trapped like rats. They will survive
as long as their foods last, and they are not over run. They will have the
weather and elements on their side.

Long story short, everyone will be running all over the place with no place
to go. City folks with experience only in mall shopping or car hopping will
not do too well out on the farms or in the mountains, and most will freeze
solid as a popsicle the first winter. Game will all but disappear with the
influx of new people making the ratio of people to game about 100 to one.
Food will be in short supply or nonexistant because of lack of trucks.

So, if it makes one feel better by sitting aside a disaster pack "in case
you have to leave and can never come back," be sure to take a handgun. And
save that last shot.

Steve

All of you should read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven, a really great SF
author...

"bw" wrote in message
...
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
I have to admit I'm really impressed with the number of confident,
conversant environmental-science experts we have on this newsgroup.
Global
warming is a subject I wouldn't touch with a ten-foot flood gauge,
because
I
don't have the four or five spare years of full-time study necessary to
form
an opinion worth the powder to blow it to hell.

I've been following the science for over 10 years and can distill it into
one sentence.
It's a cash cow for scientists.

The most credible and sober expert is Richard S. Lindzen.

I hope you're getting good odds on that dark horse. g

--
Ed Huntress

Cities exist only because of readily available supplies of food and
water. Both of those depend on cheap and available fuel for trucks, and
low cost electricity. The government will do whatever is necessary to
maintain basic services in cities because that is where most voters
live. In other words, the well being of people living in rural areas
will be sacrificed (initially) to mollify city dwellers. I could see
government-sanctioned foraging posses that would "borrow" readily
available food and fuel from people who live outside urban areas.

Not a pretty scenario.

SteveB wrote:

"Terry Collins" wrote


7. Consider what you would bring with you if you had to leave your home
in 10 min. and never return.

This is more than just thinking about what is important, it is actually
a survival skill. If you are in the city and your plan is to escape to
the countryside, you have ten minutes to chuck your bicycle and stuff
into your vehicle and hit the road so you are in front of the exodus
wave. Unless you are in front of that wave, you are soon going to end up
in a traffic jam, or stranded without fuel as everyone suddenly tanks up
to leave or move on.


Ah, a light in the darkness. A man with some reason. Thank you, Terry for
being an oasis in a desert of PC rants.

I have thought of what might happen if this scenario unfolds. It goes
something like this.

GO TO THE COUNTRYSIDE? HAVE YOU BEEN SMOKING CRACK?

The wave of humanity moves inland over the roads.

People overwhelm local supplies of gasoline by their sheer numbers, and
people are fighting and killing of each other to get gas. Gas is stolen
from local vehicles. Any local vehicle that is full of gas is stolen, and a
dead empty car left in its place. Deliveries can't be made because of
traffic jams and shut down pipelines and distribution centers.

Some people who have big gas tanks or extra gas are headed inland and will
make it. I have heard the mountains and countryside as a destination. But
the people who already live there will be defending their land and stocks
from the horde of city locusts. Warfare will take place for food, water,
and shelter.

People will only be able to bring so much "stuff" in their Volvo. Probably
DVDs, CDs, jewelry, Cuisinarts, good cigars, a marijuana stash, designer
perfumes, Gucci shoes, and such, and not so strong on things like survival
gear. They will be ill equipped to camp out, and subsistance hunt.

The fanatics who have already moved out to the countryside and mountains
will have target practice on these new untrained newbies. Those who have
set up home food storage programs will bunker in, but will be beseiged, just
as ancient cities were. They will be trapped like rats. They will survive
as long as their foods last, and they are not over run. They will have the
weather and elements on their side.

Long story short, everyone will be running all over the place with no place
to go. City folks with experience only in mall shopping or car hopping will
not do too well out on the farms or in the mountains, and most will freeze
solid as a popsicle the first winter. Game will all but disappear with the
influx of new people making the ratio of people to game about 100 to one.
Food will be in short supply or nonexistant because of lack of trucks.

So, if it makes one feel better by sitting aside a disaster pack "in case
you have to leave and can never come back," be sure to take a handgun. And
save that last shot.

Steve

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show jim rozen
wrote back on 17 Feb 2005 10:20:58 -0800 in
rec.crafts.metalworking :
In article , Gunner says...

So you are claiming that the issue was intentionally caused by
programmers 5-15 yrs prior?

Well actually it was. "Back when I was a boy" (or as my daughter
says 'back when dinosaurs roamed the earth...') every bit of
memory cost. Figure all those data files had a date in there, if
you could save 32 bits somehow in each one, that adds up after
a while.

Hence the XX year format rather than XXXX.

But honestly I figure they just wanted to see that they'd
have jobs right around the year 1999.

Screw that. Most of them thought "2000" was like, way, way in the
future. Heck, they thought 1980 was a long way off.
I'm sure a number of them said to themselves "Better software will be
written before this becomes a problem".

Heck, I'd wager a bunch of them didn't even think about the issue, not
even in 1998, long after they were gone from the company. I doubt there
were any programmers who sat up in bed in the middle of the night and said
"Oh Alan Turing, I forgot to allow for the millennium change when I kludge
that program at Old Last Bank in '68!"

Crumbs! Some of the "great legends" of computer science revolve around
writing programs to take advantage of the hardware to maximize program
processing speed. "Life was tough in those days, we had hard wire the
program by hand. Crimped the wires with our teeth, we did! Didn't think
nothing of doing it with the power still on!" [and then the asteroid hit,
and I am the last of our kind ...]

tschus
pyotr

--
pyotr filipivich
We didn't have these sorts of problems when I was a boy,
back when snakes wore shoes and dirt was $2 a pound,
if you could find it. We had to make our own from rocks!

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show Clark Magnuson
wrote back on Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:40:43 -0800 in
rec.crafts.metalworking :

Confirming..that programmers intentionally set up the 2 digit format
to ensure job security at Y2k?


I know a programmer who argued that Y2K was hype and hoax and argued
with another person [a conspiracy buff] who argued back that it was a
big deal and converted his wealth to gold.
The programmer had a banking problem with auto bill paying, and the
conspiracy guy was stuck with gold and bottled water in his condo.
They were both wrong.

reminds me of the story of the two brothers in Imperial Germany, 1915.
Their father died, an left an inheritance to both of them. The one was
prudent and invested in Government Bonds, the other drank it all up. Come
the end of the war, the one brother was ruined (bonds no good) the other
found he had a cellar full of bottles he could 'sell'.
This, however, is an exception to the general rule about prudent
investing. Like Charlie Brown, you want a convertible and a lake. If the
sun shines, you can take the convertible for a drive. If it is raining, it
will fill up your lake.

--
pyotr filipivich.
as an explaination for the decline in the US's tech edge, James
Niccol wrote "It used to be that the USA was pretty good at
producing stuff teenaged boys could lose a finger or two playing with."

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show Pete Bergstrom
wrote back on Fri, 18 Feb 2005 15:32:01 -0600 in
rec.crafts.metalworking :
jim rozen wrote:
My understanding from talking to the folks who did a lot of this
is that you are correct. They were just trying to save two digits
in the data, multiplied by a lot of data files.

Yes, but THEY DID IT STUPIDLY!!!! In the same space (2 bytes) it takes
to store the two digits, they should have stored 16 bits worth of
information, which buys you 2^16=64K years of dates. Anybody who
seriously considered storing the 4 numeric digits as 4 bytes should be
shot, even posthumously.

Hmmm - depends also if the "byte" was eight bits or four.

Lemesee, yep, eight bite - 0-255. So you're wasting all the numbers
above 99 [11000011, or 0x63]. One byte, all your years. two bytes - year
and month. There bites, year, month and day. Or you could go with a hash
which uses the first two bits of a word for the year, and the rest for the
day. Naw, that wouldn't work ... four bites and I can stick all the dates
till Dec 31, 1999 in there.

Let's face it, in 1960, the year 2000 was a long way off, nobody really
thought the programs wouldn't be rewritten, and "19" was understood to be
part of the date. The problem only started to appear in 1970 in payment
schedules for 30 year mortgages.

tschus
pyotr

--
pyotr filipivich.
as an explaination for the decline in the US's tech edge, James
Niccol wrote "It used to be that the USA was pretty good at
producing stuff teenaged boys could lose a finger or two playing with."

I missed the staff meeting but the minutes show Ray Spinhrne
wrote back on Fri, 18 Feb 2005 16:26:20 -0600 in
rec.crafts.metalworking :

I disagree, it was probably a hardware constraint (16 bits max on a hard
drive) plus a shortsighted perspective on how long the machines would be
around. Honeywell decommissioned the last of its GECOS mainframes (many
dating from the '60s) just before Y2K by replacing them with Oracle
applications and databases running on Unix boxes. A smart move, in my
opinion, and I had nothing to do with the decision or the implementation.

Right now I'd feel safe in limiting my databases to Y64K (16 bits) and
it wouldn't be about assuring some contract work when the limit is reached.

Pete

I wrote computer programs on small machines in the 70's and I can assure I was
not considering my job security in 2000. My event horizon at that time was
at most 2 years.

Two years - long term luxury! :-)


--
pyotr filipivich.
as an explaination for the decline in the US's tech edge, James
Niccol wrote "It used to be that the USA was pretty good at
producing stuff teenaged boys could lose a finger or two playing with."

In article ,
says...
On 18 Feb 2005 13:25:49 -0800, wrote:

"The models got it right. If a
politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe
these models, that is no longer tenable."

The quote is from the Times (UK):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFr...9955-3,00.html.

Back to "lurk mode".

http://naturalscience.com/ns/cover/cover5.html

An eight year old article that actually supports the notion of global
warming.


http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.co...s/Ice_Age.html

Is a New Ice Age Under Way?

by Laurence Hecht

?Watch out, Al Gore. The glaciers will get you!? With that appended
note, my friend, retired field geologist Jack Sauers, forwarded to me
a report that should have been a lead item in every newspaper in the
world. It was the news that the best-measured glacier in North
America, the Nisqually on Mount Rainier, has been growing since 1931.

Excerpted from a magazine published by Lyndon LaRouche.

Ned Simmons

"Ned Simmons" wrote in message
...
In article ,
says...
On 18 Feb 2005 13:25:49 -0800, wrote:

"The models got it right. If a
politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe
these models, that is no longer tenable."

The quote is from the Times (UK):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFr...9955-3,00.html.

Back to "lurk mode".

http://naturalscience.com/ns/cover/cover5.html

An eight year old article that actually supports the notion of global
warming.


http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.co...s/Ice_Age.html

Is a New Ice Age Under Way?

by Laurence Hecht

?Watch out, Al Gore. The glaciers will get you!? With that appended
note, my friend, retired field geologist Jack Sauers, forwarded to me
a report that should have been a lead item in every newspaper in the
world. It was the news that the best-measured glacier in North
America, the Nisqually on Mount Rainier, has been growing since 1931.

Excerpted from a magazine published by Lyndon LaRouche.

Ned Simmons

Don't ya' love the terms on which this argument is fought? Even the real
scientists talk like political radicals (on both sides) and triumphalists.
None of them sound like real scientists to me.

I wonder when we laymen will be able to figure out who was right. When we
freeze or fry, I suppose.

--
Ed Huntress

On Sat, 19 Feb 2005 08:29:23 -0800, "SteveB"
wrote:


The fanatics who have already moved out to the countryside and mountains
will have target practice on these new untrained newbies. Those who have
set up home food storage programs will bunker in, but will be beseiged, just
as ancient cities were. They will be trapped like rats. They will survive
as long as their foods last, and they are not over run. They will have the
weather and elements on their side.

Fanatics? Since when is prudence considered fanaticism?
G

Prudent Gunner

It's better to be a red person in a blue state
than a blue person in a red state. As a red
person, if your blue neighbors turn into a mob
at least you have a gun to protect yourself.
As a blue person, your only hope is to appease
the red mob with herbal tea and marinated tofu.

(Phil Garding)

Confirming..that programmers intentionally set up the 2 digit format
to ensure job security at Y2k?
Urban myth.

Truth seems to be that when the legacy programs were written
computer core/memory was a problem and anything that could help
keep active program size down was done. Some of these programs
dated from the 60's and earlier. The DP/IT people were well
aware of the problem and tried to update the programs/systems for
30-40 years, but management always had an excuse not to do so.

The single thing that appears to have saved the day was the
migration to distributed computing using networked PCs which
generally forced management into updating the software for the
companies that were still in business in 2000.

Exactly the same management mindset that refuses to update
equipment, that insists on buying the cheapest possible materials
and consumable tooling, and then complains because productivity
and quality are low. Its much easier to blame your lazy workers
and the American education system than upgrade the physical
plant/ equipment (and cut into this years bonuses).

On Sat, 19 Feb 2005 19:13:09 GMT, pyotr filipivich
wrote:

This, however, is an exception to the general rule about prudent
investing.

In 1961 my father died and left me $1500.
I had my choice of either buying gold, which had been stable at aroud
$35 an oz for decades, or mutual funds. I bought the mutual funds. A
few years later I cashed in the the mutual fund certificates for $900.
At the time gold was well over $300 an oz and still rising!

Oh well...

This entire conversation needs to be prefaced with the fact that 99% of scientists
doing studies receive their sole source of income from goverment grants and public
donations. Most of their time is actually spent studying methods of getting more
money to continue their research.
And then, they all gather at scientific conferences to divvy up the topics of
study for the next several years......................."Here, you taking global
warming for 15 years, we'll do ice age. In 10 years Joe's groups can have global
warming, we'll take Ice age, and you can have earthquakes........................"

All the while, Bills group is doing great at securing funding so they will
continue with that for the next 20 years.........

Tom




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On Sat, 19 Feb 2005 17:49:07 -0600, Tom
wrote:

This entire conversation needs to be prefaced with the fact that 99% of scientists
doing studies receive their sole source of income from goverment grants and public
donations. Most of their time is actually spent studying methods of getting more
money to continue their research.
And then, they all gather at scientific conferences to divvy up the topics of
study for the next several years......................."Here, you taking global
warming for 15 years, we'll do ice age. In 10 years Joe's groups can have global
warming, we'll take Ice age, and you can have earthquakes........................"

All the while, Bills group is doing great at securing funding so they will
continue with that for the next 20 years.........

Tom




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Tom,
Care to back up your above statements with documentation? Or are you
just trying to make a point? And even if we assume everything you said
above is true, are you implying that the scientists are dishonest?
ERS

On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 23:07:03 -0600, "James" vaguely
proposed a theory
.......and in reply I say!:

remove ns from my header address to reply via email

But there is a heap of ice _not_ floating on the water. How come you
completely ignore that?

I'm sure you understand about the polar ice caps. The arctic ice floats
on the ocean. It doesn't sit on the bottom. Now here's an experiment for
you. Take a glass and fill it with ice. Then fill it to the brim with water.
What happens when the ice melts?
I get very talkative when expounding on things like this. Another one is
the CFC's. I could cover a few pages with that.

Yes....

Eric R Snow wrote:

On Sat, 19 Feb 2005 17:49:07 -0600, Tom
wrote:

This entire conversation needs to be prefaced with the fact that 99% of scientists
doing studies receive their sole source of income from goverment grants and public
donations. Most of their time is actually spent studying methods of getting more
money to continue their research.
And then, they all gather at scientific conferences to divvy up the topics of
study for the next several years......................."Here, you taking global
warming for 15 years, we'll do ice age. In 10 years Joe's groups can have global
warming, we'll take Ice age, and you can have earthquakes........................"

All the while, Bills group is doing great at securing funding so they will
continue with that for the next 20 years.........

Tom
=----
Tom,
Care to back up your above statements with documentation? Or are you
just trying to make a point? And even if we assume everything you said
above is true, are you implying that the scientists are dishonest?
ERS

All I'm saying is that when they were in scientist school they did very well in "Which
side your bread's buttered 101". I believe they are honestly trying to collect money
while they honestly study opposing opinions.

One of my cousins is a "scientist", he's been attending college since graduating high
school........22 years ago. Goverment grants fund his continued education.

Tom



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Tom wrote:

Polar ice caps? Antartica has most of its ice landbased, it melts,
13 ft ASL isn't going to save you..

Tom

And a few, even quite a few, degrees is not going to melt much
of the antartic ice cap with the summer temps that exist
there. All the ice shelfs in that part of the world are
also floating.
...lew...

Eric R Snow wrote:
Tom,
Care to back up your above statements with documentation? Or are you
just trying to make a point? And even if we assume everything you said
above is true, are you implying that the scientists are dishonest?
ERS

He is, probably not saying scientists are any more dishonost than your
average lawyer. :-)
...lew...

Emmo wrote:

All of you should read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven, a really great SF
author...


I've read a lot of Larry Niven back when Sci Fi was scientific ( before
it became psychology and sex ) and the title sounds familiar but
nothing of the story. Give me a few hints.
...lew...

Lew Hartswick wrote:
Emmo wrote:

All of you should read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven, a really
great SF author...


I've read a lot of Larry Niven back when Sci Fi was scientific ( before
it became psychology and sex ) and the title sounds familiar but
nothing of the story. Give me a few hints.
...lew...

Here's a hint: Pournelle and Niven
Not whole Niven.
ymmv
(your mileage may vary)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 02:48:44 GMT, the inscrutable Lew Hartswick
spake:

Emmo wrote:

All of you should read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven, a really great SF
author...


I've read a lot of Larry Niven back when Sci Fi was scientific ( before
it became psychology and sex ) and the title sounds familiar but
nothing of the story. Give me a few hints.
...lew...

That was the ONLY Niven book I didn't finish. I wanted other worlds,
not a disaster on Earth, at the time so I read 30 pages and took it
back to the library. The plot was evidently similar to the movies
"Armageddon" and "Asteroid." From Amazon.com:

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher
I think this is one of the most exciting, inspiring books I've ever
read. Humankind, faced with overwhelming cataclysm, regroups to fight
its way back to civilization. All the way back; no settling for
another uncomfortable, time-wasting Dark Age. It is a story with brain
and heart--and a lot of both--and I can't figure how it missed that
list of the hundred best books of the century.

--Veronica Chapman, Senior Editor--This text refers to the Paperback
edition.

Product Description:
The gigantic comet had slammed into Earth, forging earthquakes a
thousand times too powerful to measure on the Richter scale, tidal
waves thousands of feet high. Cities were turned into oceans; oceans
turned into steam. It was the beginning of a new Ice Age and the end
of civilization. But for the terrified men and women chance had saved,
it was also the dawn of a new struggle for survival--a struggle more
dangerous and challenging than any they had ever known....
"Massively entertaining."
CLEVELAND PLAIN-DEALER

-
If the gods had meant us to vote, they'd have given us candidates.
--------------
http://diversify.com Website Application Programming

"Emmo" wrote in message
...
All of you should read "Lucifer's Hammer" by Larry Niven, a really great
SF author...



I'm too busy putting together my disaster pack. Can you paraphrase it for
me?

Steve