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#81
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
Per Robert Green:
"As with any logical fallacy, identifying that the reasoning behind an argument is flawed does not imply that the resulting conclusion is false." IOW, that knife cuts both ways! Good point. -- Pete Cresswell |
#82
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
Per Robert Green:
That said, I have to believe that it's much, much harder to hijack a plane these days for a number of reasons. Passenger education (people used to be told to leave the hijackers alone) IMHO that alone made the 911 scenario a one-trick pony. I don't think the strategy lasted even an hour because when the people on the plane over Pennsylvania found out what was up, they rushed the hijackers. OTOH, one of the possibilities I heard cited for MH370 was that whoever hijacked the plane ascended to 40,000+ feet for the purpose of killing the passengers (I guess, by reducing pressure/oxygen in the passenger area to 40,000+ feet) -- Pete Cresswell |
#83
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
"(PeteCresswell)" wrote in message
... Per Robert Green: That said, I have to believe that it's much, much harder to hijack a plane these days for a number of reasons. Passenger education (people used to be told to leave the hijackers alone) IMHO that alone made the 911 scenario a one-trick pony. I don't think the strategy lasted even an hour because when the people on the plane over Pennsylvania found out what was up, they rushed the hijackers. Yes, I've said that before and agree completely. For years the advice was to cooperate with hijackers to prevent a plane crash. That advice stopped when it became clear some hijackers were determined to do just that - crash the plane. The passengers on MH370 were probably mostly asleep and had no idea they were off course (it was dark) or hijacked, if that was the case. Ironically, once the hijackers are in the cabin and lock the door, the reinforcement of the cabin door and frame will make it hard for the passengers to get into the cabin and do anything about it. There's clearly evidence that at least one pilot has had people in the cabin before. OTOH, one of the possibilities I heard cited for MH370 was that whoever hijacked the plane ascended to 40,000+ feet for the purpose of killing the passengers (I guess, by reducing pressure/oxygen in the passenger area to 40,000+ feet) I'm pretty sure in a 777 the oxygen masks descend automatically when the pressure drops to a certain point in the cabin. I assume the designers thought the pilots might be too busy dealing with whatever caused the depressurization to deal with it manually. If someone did steal that plane, it would certainly be the crime of the century. Will it go to a chop shop? I can't imagine some other country could repaint the plane and begin using it, not if the engines phone home every hour. I'd certainly be sending people to every landing strip/airport capable of landing such a plane within its flight range to "look around." Could be the Uighurs, but since they mostly stab people to death (or so it seems) I don't see them as having the technical skills to pull off stealing a modern jetliner. But then again, I didn't think the 9/11 hijackers could do what they did. If it crashed in the ocean, enough stuff will float that eventually some of it will reach shore somewhere. It is one of the greatest *true* mystery stories I've ever heard of. It's like trying to prove a murder was committed without the body. -- Bobby G. |
#84
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
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#85
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: If someone did steal that plane, it would certainly be the crime of the century. Will it go to a chop shop? I can't imagine some other country could repaint the plane and begin using it, not if the engines phone home every hour. I'd certainly be sending people to every landing strip/airport capable of landing such a plane within its flight range to "look around." Could be the Uighurs, but since they mostly stab people to death (or so it seems) I don't see them as having the technical skills to pull off stealing a modern jetliner. But then again, I didn't think the 9/11 hijackers could do what they did. Given your chop shop scenario, they would not only have to land, but probably do so on less modern landing field. That is orders of magnitude more technical than flying things into a building. If it crashed in the ocean, enough stuff will float that eventually some of it will reach shore somewhere. It is one of the greatest *true* mystery stories I've ever heard of. It's like trying to prove a murder was committed without the body. Probably, look at all the tsunami stuff washing up on the west coast. Although it may take awhile and then it has to wash up on an inhabited part of the coast. Who knows. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#86
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
m... In article , "Robert Green" wrote: If someone did steal that plane, it would certainly be the crime of the century. Will it go to a chop shop? I can't imagine some other country could repaint the plane and begin using it, not if the engines phone home every hour. I'd certainly be sending people to every landing strip/airport capable of landing such a plane within its flight range to "look around." Could be the Uighurs, but since they mostly stab people to death (or so it seems) I don't see them as having the technical skills to pull off stealing a modern jetliner. But then again, I didn't think the 9/11 hijackers could do what they did. Given your chop shop scenario, they would not only have to land, but probably do so on less modern landing field. That is orders of magnitude more technical than flying things into a building. That's why I suspect if the place was stolen intact, a state actor was involved. I read after posting that each major part is serialized and selling them off would be pretty risky. I don't see the plane as having landed anywhere but the ocean, but stranger things have happened. New scenario - the Chinese are trying to start WWIII and they'll eventually accuse the US or Korea or Japan of masterminding the disappearance. Stranger things have happened. (-: If it crashed in the ocean, enough stuff will float that eventually some of it will reach shore somewhere. It is one of the greatest *true* mystery stories I've ever heard of. It's like trying to prove a murder was committed without the body. Probably, look at all the tsunami stuff washing up on the west coast. Although it may take awhile and then it has to wash up on an inhabited part of the coast. Who knows. The tsunami "garbage islands" are quite impressive: Cars, tractors, boats and the occasional entire house have been spotted floating on the surface of the Pacific Ocean. The largest "island" of debris stretches 60 nautical miles (69 miles) in length and covers an expanse of more than 2.2 million square feet, according to the US Navy's 7th Fleet, which is closely monitoring the floating rubbish. The length of time that's elapsed since the probable ocean crash of the jet means that debris has had a lot of time to scatter as well as become waterlogged and sink. It's conceivable that MH370 stays lost for a very, very long time like the Titanic. -- Bobby G. |
#87
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
wrote in message
... On Sat, 15 Mar 2014 17:33:40 -0400, "Robert Green" wrote: "(PeteCresswell)" wrote in message stuff snipped I'm pretty sure in a 777 the oxygen masks descend automatically when the pressure drops to a certain point in the cabin. I assume the designers thought the pilots might be too busy dealing with whatever caused the depressurization to deal with it manually. Yes the masks may have deployed but that does two things for the hijackers. It gets everyone back to their seats and not banging on the door. Then when the oxygen runs out (10 minutes or less) they die quietly in their seats. I've been on a flight where the masks drop down. "Quietly" had nothing to do with it. (-: The only thing that muted all the screaming was my ears popping in and out from the pressure changes. The flight I was on was already "the screaming baby express" without the scare. Once those baby's ear drums started popping they began screaming like little banshees. I can't see 230 people quietly suffocating. I'd hate to be a relative or loved one of one of the passengers. It has to be an unbearable emotional roller coaster especially now that some sources are hinting the plane may have landed somewhere with the passengers alive. Maybe, but I doubt it. If you are going with the stolen plane thing, they may have had an insurrection in the cabin when people's GPS's started showing them going the wrong way (or maybe they forgot to shut off the seat back flight tracker) and this is how they put it down. It's possible they did rise up against their hijackers, but the circumstances are very different than US flight 93 that crashed in a field on 9/11. Those people had a pretty good idea what was in store for them. What's most interesting is that the longer this goes on, the more it unravels into "what if's" without a whole lot of revelation as to what really happened. If someone did steal that plane, it would certainly be the crime of the century. Will it go to a chop shop? I can't imagine some other country could repaint the plane and begin using it, not if the engines phone home every hour. I'd certainly be sending people to every landing strip/airport capable of landing such a plane within its flight range to "look around." Could be the Uighurs, but since they mostly stab people to death (or so it seems) I don't see them as having the technical skills to pull off stealing a modern jetliner. But then again, I didn't think the 9/11 hijackers could do what they did. The conjecture just runs wild but I doubt they were planning to start Jihad Air Lines. My wife will get a kick out of that. (-: Jihad Airways "Fly until you die!" It may have been a ransom thing that simply went wrong when the passengers would not shut up, sit down and wait to be ransomed. There's yet another scenario. Will the real story come close to all the conjecture? Probably not. It isn't 1968 anymore. People understand this is not going to end well when someone takes your plane. If you can believe the current projections the horn of Africa is in that circle and they are not strangers to the idea of ransom. The original diversion seemed to point right at Mogadishu before the erratic maneuvers began. This is way more sophisticated than storming an oil tanker in rubber boats armed with AK-47's. At this point I think the bottom of the Indian ocean is probably the best place to look but it is a big ocean. Yes, I suspect you're correct. No one else seems to have picked them up on radar although a country that helped steal/hijack the plane would probably sit on such data. Very, very strange bit of business indeed. -- Bobby G. |
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Everyone is speculating about what happened to that plane, and the longer it's fate remains unknown, the wilder and wilder the speculation becomes.
Now, we're talking about pirates highjacking a plane for ransom just as they would an oil tanker. The problem with that theory is that whomever hijacked the airplane would have to have known enough about it to have turned it's transponders off, and that's not the level of technical sophistication you have amongst typical Somali pirates. We will eventually find out what happened to that plane, but I suspect the truth will be far more mundane that the speculation, and may even be annoyingly anticlimactic. One thing's for certain. Whomever took that airplane on a joy ride is almost certain to be given a book and movie deal from some Hollywood producer wanting to cash in on the intrigue. |
#89
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
In article ,
nestork wrote: Everyone is speculating about what happened to that plane, and the longer it's fate remains unknown, the wilder and wilder the speculation becomes. Looking over all of the published conjecture, etc., I have a question of my own. Has this crossed line between pure fiction writing and fan fiction? -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#90
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: The length of time that's elapsed since the probable ocean crash of the jet means that debris has had a lot of time to scatter as well as become waterlogged and sink. It's conceivable that MH370 stays lost for a very, very long time like the Titanic. At least with the Titanic, you had a much better fix of where it went down and that was more a question of when the tech would develop to let it happen than IF it would happen. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#91
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: I'd hate to be a relative or loved one of one of the passengers. It has to be an unbearable emotional roller coaster especially now that some sources are hinting the plane may have landed somewhere with the passengers alive. Maybe, but I doubt it. A lot of it induced by media types who get bored easily and then go looking for ANYTHING and ANYBODY to fill up air time and put pressure on the officials to do SOMETHING. Two things I learned early on as both a reporter and a psych nurse is (1) you learn a lot by just sitting there quietly until the person (or the situation) has something to say and (2). silence is uncomfortable for us to do so we say something and lose number 1. If you are going with the stolen plane thing, they may have had an insurrection in the cabin when people's GPS's started showing them going the wrong way (or maybe they forgot to shut off the seat back flight tracker) and this is how they put it down. It's possible they did rise up against their hijackers, but the circumstances are very different than US flight 93 that crashed in a field on 9/11. Those people had a pretty good idea what was in store for them. What's most interesting is that the longer this goes on, the more it unravels into "what if's" without a whole lot of revelation as to what really happened. I wonder too, if the cockpit reinforcements placed after 9/11 also argue against that happening. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
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I also heard on the TV news that the 54 year old captain of that plane had a flight simulator in his house. That flight simulator was confiscated by the Malaysian authorities; ostensibly to see if there's anything incriminating on it. But, most, if not all pilots love to fly, and for a commercial airline pilot to have a flight simulator in his own house doesn't seem all that strange to me. I would expect to find Golfing game software in the home of an avid golfer and auto racing game software in the home of an auto racing enthusiast. |
#93
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
In article ,
nestork wrote: But, most, if not all pilots love to fly, and for a commercial airline pilot to have a flight simulator in his own house doesn't seem all that strange to me. I agree.Although, I do know people who don't fly but still use the simulators because they would like. Of course if the simulator has information so he has been practicing how to land a 777 on an abandoned WWII airfield in the Middle East, there might be an issue. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#94
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
m... In article , nestork wrote: Everyone is speculating about what happened to that plane, and the longer it's fate remains unknown, the wilder and wilder the speculation becomes. Looking over all of the published conjecture, etc., I have a question of my own. Has this crossed line between pure fiction writing and fan fiction? My opinion is that it's evidence of the human mind needing to have rational explanations for everything that happens. It's why early man created Zeus (to explain thunder and lightning) and probably why we've got civilization. It's insatiable curiosity coupled with a fear of the unknown. We want to make things "knowable" so they don't frighten us. One thing's for sure. A lot of us know a lot more about airplanes than we did a week ago! -- Bobby G. |
#95
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"nestork" wrote in message
stuff snipped Malaysian Airlines will know whether there were any air marshalls aboard that plane. If so, those air marshalls would have been shown how to open the cockpit door in the event someone gets into the cockpit and takes over control of the plane. They would perhaps have keys to unlock the door from the outside in their possession, or know a procedure that would override the door lock. If there were any air marshals is a big "if." Outside the US it's clear that people don't take air security as seriously as Americans do. That makes sense because we've taken some pretty enormous hits, from Lockerbie to the WTC. I'm just afraid that we'll never know what happened, even if the voice recorder is found because it overwrites previous recordings every two hours. My current thinking (which changes as each new data tidbit dribbles out) is that terrorists somehow learned that these pilots have had female visitors in the cabin before and used that knowledge to gain entry. Russian terrorists have long been equal opportunity employers with the last two planes that crashed brought down by suicide bombers who were women - one I believe was the widow of a well-known terrorist. IIRC he was a Muslim and the Russkies made a point of filming him being buried in a pigskin bag in an undisclosed location. Clearly that got her worked up enough to take drastic action (although I may be confusing events). I also heard on the TV news that the 54 year old captain of that plane had a flight simulator in his house. That flight simulator was confiscated by the Malaysian authorities; ostensibly to see if there's anything incriminating on it. A week later. They move very slowly in that part of the world, it seems. But, most, if not all pilots love to fly, and for a commercial airline pilot to have a flight simulator in his own house doesn't seem all that strange to me. Nor to me. He apparently built his own using several PC's running MS's flight simulator and feeding six different monitors. What do they call that? A busman's holiday? I would expect to find Golfing game software in the home of an avid golfer and auto racing game software in the home of an auto racing enthusiast. Yes, I just read something about a racecar driver's passion for driving games. I don't think it's unusual. From what I've read these guys don't seem like the suicidal type, but you never know. My bet's still on someone getting into the cabin, probably a woman (because they've apparently "partied" with women in the cockpit before) and killing them and taking over the plane. I still suspect the Uighurs because the plane was Chinese and they have been cracking down quite hard on them. The problem with that scenario is that they would probably want to crash the plane into something symbolic in Beijing and not ditch it in the ocean. It seems more and more likely every day that we will *never* know what really happened on flight MH370, even if the black boxes are found. -- Bobby G. |
#96
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
... In article , nestork wrote: But, most, if not all pilots love to fly, and for a commercial airline pilot to have a flight simulator in his own house doesn't seem all that strange to me. I agree.Although, I do know people who don't fly but still use the simulators because they would like. Of course if the simulator has information so he has been practicing how to land a 777 on an abandoned WWII airfield in the Middle East, there might be an issue. That's an interesting point. Didn't Yossarian constantly practice ditching his plane for his eventual escape to Switzerland in Catch-22? Until you mentioned that, I really didn't think there would be any potentially incriminating evidence to be found concerning the simulator. The big question is if he did it, WHY? Family member held hostage? Promise of a huge payday for delivering a plane that size intact somewhere? A need to be remembered like D.B. Cooper as the man who "did it first and got away with it?" -- Bobby G. |
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Quote:
Modern radar is sophisticated and might be able to tell the difference between one plane or two located very close together. You'd need an expert, like an air traffic controller, to provide an educated guess here. If they landed on the water, it's possible the plane would hold together, but a crash into the water would create floating debris. In either case, those US submarine hunting aircraft should be able to find the plane or the debris. What's the most perplexing aspect of this whole thing is the fact that it appears that the plane's transponders were intentionally turned off, and that leads to all kinds of speculation as to why someone on board would do that. If the pilots were incapacitated, then whoever took over the plane must have had very good knowledge of this kind of aircraft. If the pilots turned the transponders off, what could their motive have been? |
#98
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: My opinion is that it's evidence of the human mind needing to have rational explanations for everything that happens. It's why early man created Zeus (to explain thunder and lightning) and probably why we've got civilization. It's insatiable curiosity coupled with a fear of the unknown. We want to make things "knowable" so they don't frighten us. Which brings to about the only interesting quote from the short-lived 8th Doctor:" "I love humans. Always seeing patterns in things that aren't there." One thing's for sure. A lot of us know a lot more about airplanes than we did a week ago! I don't know. My cynical suggests in the final analysis we may know even less.... -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#99
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: If there were any air marshals is a big "if." Outside the US it's clear that people don't take air security as seriously as Americans do. That makes sense because we've taken some pretty enormous hits, from Lockerbie to the WTC. I'm just afraid that we'll never know what happened, even if the voice recorder is found because it overwrites previous recordings every two hours. We can still get plenty of evidence. Is there just one voice on the recorder? Are there extra voices? What is the content of any conversations? Did the pilot at the end do a culture equivalent of Slim Pickens riding down the bomb in Dr. Strangelove? All sorts of interesting things are still possible. My current thinking (which changes as each new data tidbit dribbles out) is I haven't seen anything yet that I would consider to be data. Rumors and conjectures, but little data. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#100
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
wrote in message
... stuff snipped This plane has pretty good short field capability anyway and we have see plenty of accidental landings on fields theoretically too short for the plane. WNYC prepared a map of all airstrips/airports within range that could accommodate a 777: http://www.thedailystar.net/600-pote...-to-land-15819 Any halfway decent pilot could set this down on a good sized road if he had to. Could they take off again from such a short runway? I haven't found anyone who could answer that question - yet. The trick is finding a route to that road that stays out of range of radar. I wonder how many countries actually pay close attention to their radar scans. Malaysia certainly appears not to have done so. There may be a corridor in western China or Eastern India that is out of range of radar but I doubt it. That is a politically volatile area. Which makes me pretty surprised that the Malaysians didn't scramble any fighters to check out the blips they saw. I suspect some heads are going to roll for that. I suppose it might be possible for them to have set up the transponder to emulate some benign flight but I am not sure what that would be. If their target was crashing into something in China their best bet was to keep flying toward Beijing. This is, as my boss used to say, an RFM - real fu&ing mystery. Were they near another flight that they could have "tail gated" into another area? That would be similar to what happened with KAL007 and the AF fuel tanker whose tracks merged as they approached Russia. I still think that was an attempt to analyze Russia air defense systems and their readiness. That "test" went terribly bad and was based on the assumption the Sovs would never shoot down a passenger jet - even one that strayed over highly sensitive military targets. Bad assumption, obviously. I am still betting they just flew out to very deep water and went in vertical. A few floaty things may wash up on a beach somewhere but nothing that will help much. Why go all that way to ditch when they could have done it at any time earlier in the flight? Even the voice recorder, if found, won't be much assistance with the two hour overwrite "feature" likely obliterating the important moments just after takeoff. The pieces of the wreckage won't tell us much since it's obvious this wasn't a bomb. AFM for sure. -- Bobby G. |
#101
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
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#102
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
"Robert Green" wrote: The length of time that's elapsed since the probable ocean crash of the jet means that debris has had a lot of time to scatter as well as become waterlogged and sink. It's conceivable that MH370 stays lost for a very, very long time like the Titanic. At least with the Titanic, you had a much better fix of where it went down and that was more a question of when the tech would develop to let it happen than IF it would happen. It's still a very big ocean out there. It took two years to find just one of the black boxes from the AirFrance crash and they had a pretty good idea where to look because they found wreckage shortly after the crash. MH370 may "sleep" for as long as the Titanic did, albeit for slightly different reasons that all come back to "it's a big ocean with a lot of (very deep) water to search." The Titanic was only found because the USN floated the money for the search and they were looking for the Thresher, not the Titanic. We've had deep diving submersible technology since the '50's but it's wildly expensive and time-consuming to search at those depths. Maybe if the India sinks a submarine in that area, we'll have an excuse to search the depths in depth. Given the problems India's been having with their subs (they stopped buying Russian gear and are now building their own (apparently very shoddy) subs. Reminds me of the John Madden joke about the guy who loses a quarter in the urinal so he takes out his wallet and throws a $50 bill in after it. He tells his buddy "you don't think I am going in there for a quarter?" -- Bobby G. |
#103
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
"Robert Green" wrote: I'm just afraid that we'll never know what happened, even if the voice recorder is found because it overwrites previous recordings every two hours. We can still get plenty of evidence. Is there just one voice on the recorder? Are there extra voices? What is the content of any conversations? Did the pilot at the end do a culture equivalent of Slim Pickens riding down the bomb in Dr. Strangelove? All sorts of interesting things are still possible. But, as they say in the adult film biz, the "money shot" would be missing. If a lone hijacker killed both pilots I suppose we might hear pounding on the cabin door five hours later, but if the passengers were asphyxiated, as some people have suggested, all we might hear is the heavy breathing of the hijacker. And perhaps "low fuel, low altitude" alerts as the plane crashed. Just finding wreckage seven flight hours away would have told us that already. Maybe if the hijacker was explaining how "peace on earth" equalled "purity of essence" out loud to him imaginary friend Mandrake we could determine they were shi+ stomping crazy . . . (-: (Ironically a lot of Strangelove concerns a rogue plane flying under Russian radar after the Russians wasted time pursuing decoy targets and got fu&ed - life imitates art.) My current thinking (which changes as each new data tidbit dribbles out) is I haven't seen anything yet that I would consider to be data. Rumors and conjectures, but little data. I think the end of the transponder tracking is trustworthy because it's mutliply sourced. The Malaysian government and FlightRadar24 both confirm that and FR24 uses independent listeners connected by the net. I believe the pilots have had cabin guests before because someone published a picture of them with a woman in the cockpit. I think it had enough fuel to get to Beijing and then some. I believe that the transponders were manually disabled, but indirectly because a) they stopped and b) if the plane broke up, they'd likely have found the wreck once the adults arrived to help. Everything beyond that gets sketchier and sketchier, I'll agree. BTW, I called my buddy in Chicago who's flying home tonight to warn him of the storm predicted for our area. I'm very familiar with the "ring pattern" of his phone but this time it rang four rings longer before it went to voicemail. Just saying - ring patterns don't mean much compared to all the other non-evidence and innuendo we have. In the end, both the airline and Boeing will find a way to blame the pilot. It's a tradition! (Also, the pilots have the shallowest pockets.) -- Bobby G. |
#104
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
In article ,
nestork wrote: gfre Modern radar is sophisticated and might be able to tell the difference between one plane or two located very close together. You'd need an expert, like an air traffic controller, to provide an educated guess here. From talking with a friend who is an ATC about this in another context said that would be very dependent on the strength and type of radar, how close it is, and other obvious factors (not the least of which is the attentiveness/skill of the ATC). So, especially at the outer ends of the range, it could happen. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
#105
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
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#106
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
On Monday, March 10, 2014 11:51:20 PM UTC-4, Home Guy wrote:
There was a suprising number of planes in the air around Malaysia at 1 am local time. ------------- A pilot flying another plane who tried to contact the pilots in the cockpit of the Malaysia Airlines plane said he heard mumbled voices before contact was lost. ------------- So another theory: Something went wrong with the cabin air inside the plane. Either it lost pressurization (slowly) or recirculation wasn't working - causing buidup of carbon monoxide. --------------- On October 25, 1999, a chartered Learjet 35 was scheduled to fly from Orlando, Florida to Dallas, Texas. Early in the flight the aircraft, which was cruising at altitude on autopilot, quickly lost cabin pressure. All on board were incapacitated due to hypoxia — a lack of oxygen. The aircraft failed to make the westward turn toward Dallas over north Florida. It continued flying over the southern and midwestern United States for almost four hours and 1,500 miles (2,400 km). The plane ran out of fuel and crashed into a field near Aberdeen, South Dakota after an uncontrolled descent. The four passengers on board were golf star Payne Stewart, his agents, Van Ardan and Robert Fraley, and Bruce Borland, a highly regarded golf architect with the Jack Nicklaus golf course design company. The NTSB determined that: The probable cause of this accident was incapacitation of the flight crew members as a result of their failure to receive supplemental oxygen following a loss of cabin pressurization, for undetermined reasons. A possible explanation for the failure of the pilots to receive emergency oxygen is that their ability to think and act decisively was impaired because of hypoxia before they could don their oxygen masks. No definitive evidence exists that indicates the rate at which the accident flight lost its cabin pressure; therefore, the Safety Board evaluated conditions of both rapid and gradual depressurization. If there had been a breach in the fuselage (even a small one that could not be visually detected by the in-flight observers) or a seal failure, the cabin could have depressurized gradually, rapidly, or even explosively. Research has shown that a period of as little as 8 seconds without supplemental oxygen following rapid depressurization to about 30,000 feet (9,100 m) may cause a drop in oxygen saturation that can significantly impair cognitive functioning and increase the amount of time required to complete complex tasks. ---------------- So either MH370 depressurized quickly - or slowly. The pilots might have been able to put their masks on - or realize they needed to put their masks on. Perhaps they did - but their supplemental oxygen supply didn't work. Perhaps in their confused state, with or without functional masks, they started an emergency descent before they blacked out, causing the plane to smash into the ocean with the pilots incapacitated on the way down. Note also that in the flight of the Lear Jet in 1999 that the pilots, even if they did don their masks, made no attempt at radio contact. ----------- 2005 Helios Airways Flight 522 crash On August 14, 2005, a Helios Airways Boeing 737-300 crashed 40 km (25 mi) from Athens after running out of fuel. An investigation later concluded that an improper pressurization setting in the cockpit had caused the cabin pressure to drop, and resulted in the incapacitation of the passengers and crew. It was later determined that one of the flight attendants had used the bottled oxygen supply and his pilot's training to attempt to bring the plane down to a lower altitude. There were no survivors. ------------- I think this is looking more and more likely - that the pilots suffered a slow asphyxia or hypoxia, caused either by a fault in the airframe or the misapplication or failure of some valve or switch. The plane descended rapidly, either as the last semi-conscious act of the pilot(s) or because of a complete lack of pilot input to the controls. This would be expected during the early phase of the flight, as it climbs to cruise altitude. test |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
On 3/16/2014 1:47 PM, Robert Green wrote:
Any halfway decent pilot could set this down on a good sized road if he had to. Could they take off again from such a short runway? I haven't found anyone who could answer that question - yet. With a good head wind, maybe. -- .. Christopher A. Young Learn about Jesus www.lds.org .. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
bob haller full-quoted:
(...) test Was there a reason why you full-quoted my entire post - just to add "test" to the end? |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
nestork wrote in :
What's the most perplexing aspect of this whole thing is the fact that it appears that the plane's transponders were intentionally turned off, and that leads to all kinds of speculation as to why someone on board would do that. It leads *me* to wonder why it's even *possible* to do that. What legitimate reason could there ever be for turning off the transponder on a passenger airliner while in flight? |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
Doug Miller wrote:
it appears that the plane's transponders were intentionally turned off, and ... It leads *me* to wonder why it's even *possible* to do that. What legitimate reason could there ever be for turning off the transponder on a passenger airliner while in flight? Already been discussed in one of these threads. When on the ground (in a hanger, at a gate, etc) it adds visual clutter to ATC screens if all such aircraft are squaking their beacons. I suggested that the beacons have supplementary power through an interlock with the landing gear - so that when the gear is up, the beacons are powered and CAN'T be turned off. Normal circuit breakers or fuses would provide plenty of safety if the beacons malfunction and need to have their power cut - with said fuse or circuit breaker for the supplementary power not accessible to the crew while in flight. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"nestork" wrote in message
stuff snipped If the pilots turned the transponders off, what could their motive have been? To avoid being tracked. If they were going to ditch, so what if the transponders on or off? But if they wanted to take that plane to one of the 600 plus airstrips within range, turning off the transponder was a necessary step. The lack of anyone claiming responsibility hints that there's another shoe waiting to drop here. Perhaps a ransoming of the passengers, a release of Chinese political prisoners, etc. I think we can guess that whatever is involved, it concerns the Chinese because even though it was a Malaysian plane, it was primarily filled with Chinese. I am wondering if a number of the people on the plane traveling with supposedly valid passports weren't who they purported to be. I think it's possible this is a ransom attempt of some kind that may still play out or ended badly prematurely. That would imply enough associates to control nearly 200 people. -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
wrote in message
... On Sun, 16 Mar 2014 18:18:49 +0100, nestork wrote: ;3211186 Wrote: Were they near another flight that they could have "tail gated" into another area? I am still betting they just flew out to very deep water and went in vertical. A few floaty things may wash up on a beach somewhere but nothing that will help much. I think you'd have to get an expert's opinion before you could make either of those statements. Modern radar is sophisticated and might be able to tell the difference between one plane or two located very close together. You'd need an expert, like an air traffic controller, to provide an educated guess here. CNN has been trotting out all sorts of experts and they seem fairly anonymous that 2 planes close together look like one from fairly far away. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...nes_Flight_007 The Soviets challenged many of the facts presented by the U.S., and for the first time, mentioned the presence of a USAF RC-135 surveillance aircraft whose path had crossed that of KAL 007. As I recall their flight paths crossed and the Sovs thought the jetliner was a military surveillance jet. The US erased the radar tapes within a day or two, which I find extraordinarily suspicious considering the gravity of the event. "We reused the tape" was the line they used. US submarine hunting aircraft should be able to find the plane or the debris. This is a pretty big ocean and they are not even sure where to start looking If you read the Wiki piece on KAL007, it becomes obvious that debris is often hard to find even if you know exactly where to look. The Soviet SAM appears to have come as close to "completely disintegrating" the 747 as you can come. MH370 could easily be lost forever. Here's what came out of the KAL007 passenger cabin: Of the non-human remains that the Japanese recovered were various items including dentures, newspapers, seats, books, eight KAL paper cups, shoes, sandals, and sneakers, a camera case, a "please fasten seat belt" sign, an oxygen mask, a handbag, a bottle of dish washing fluid, several blouses, an identity card belonging to 25-year-old passenger Mary Jane Hendrie of Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada, and the business card of passenger Kathy Brown-Spier. They found human remains like torsos but those are probably gone after a week in the drink. Seat cushions and bits of foam are not really very big targets And there's always an enormous amount of junk floating in the ocean everywhere. I wonder what the bottom line $ cost will be for this effort and how much US taxpayers will spend. It costs a lot of $ per hour to operate those big Navy ships. What's the most perplexing aspect of this whole thing is the fact that it appears that the plane's transponders were intentionally turned off, and that leads to all kinds of speculation as to why someone on board would do that. If the pilots were incapacitated, then whoever took over the plane must have had very good knowledge of this kind of aircraft. If the pilots turned the transponders off, what could their motive have been? Taking the plane. At that point the only question is whether they really wanted the plane for ransom or further terror acts or if it was just suicide and they wanted it to be hard to find. The first one is understandable, at least. Making the plane wreckage hard to find is just being a real dick. For the first time since this happened, I am beginning to think that plane might just pop up somewhere intact. -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
Robert Green wrote:
I wonder what the bottom line $ cost will be for this effort and how much US taxpayers will spend. I've heard nothing about China sending it's navy in there to do the job. Or am I just not tuned into the right station? it appears that the plane's transponders were intentionally turned off, ... For one thing, do we trust all statements made by authorities - like the Malaysian gov't and military? Was the transponder turned off, or was their a failure to detect it? What is the range of the transponder? What other facilities would have been in a position to detect it for the first 40 minutes of the flight? Did the Malaysians shoot down flight MH370 if they felt (as you would in the USA) that a passenger plane flying without beacon, unresponsive to radio contact, is a defacto threat against the country? |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
nestork wrote: Modern radar is sophisticated and might be able to tell the difference between one plane or two located very close together. You'd need an expert, like an air traffic controller, to provide an educated guess here. From talking with a friend who is an ATC about this in another context said that would be very dependent on the strength and type of radar, how close it is, and other obvious factors (not the least of which is the attentiveness/skill of the ATC). So, especially at the outer ends of the range, it could happen. It used to happen all the time - that's why they went to using transponders to provide ID info next to the blips on the radar screen. I believe the hijackers bet on the fact that at 1AM everybody, including the observers in the military radar stations, is a little bit sleepy. They certainly knew where to "fall off" the radar screens - at the handoff between Malaysia and Vietnam. -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
"(PeteCresswell)" wrote in message
... Per Robert Green: "As with any logical fallacy, identifying that the reasoning behind an argument is flawed does not imply that the resulting conclusion is false." IOW, that knife cuts both ways! Good point. Prove it beyond a reasonable doubt! (-: -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"nestork" wrote in message
... Everyone is speculating about what happened to that plane, and the longer it's fate remains unknown, the wilder and wilder the speculation becomes. Here's the latest speculation. Cyber hijackers seized control of the plane remotely. https://plus.google.com/+ChristianBa...ts/SZQGsbvTS5D -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
wrote in message
... stuff snipped That's an interesting point. Didn't Yossarian constantly practice ditching his plane for his eventual escape to Switzerland in Catch-22? Until you mentioned that, I really didn't think there would be any potentially incriminating evidence to be found concerning the simulator. The big question is if he did it, WHY? Family member held hostage? Promise of a huge payday for delivering a plane that size intact somewhere? A need to be remembered like D.B. Cooper as the man who "did it first and got away with it?" He may have been using his simulator to practice flying low, through the mountains to get under ther radar and take this plane to Tibet or one of the Stans. Once he got out of the immediate search area, it is possible a random blip popping up, might not attract that much attention. This plane could be under a tarp somewhere in the Taklimakan Desert ... or just wadded up on the side of a mountain. This incident has some pretty high-tech planning according to some reports since the circuits that were disabled required knowledge that most pilots wouldn't have. If you believe the reports, that is. Someone wanted to conceal where that plane was going. That would be much more important to a thief or someone wanting to hold the plane for ransom that it would be to a suicidal pilot. But then again, it's probably a mistake to expect a suicidal person to behave rationally. While the level of expertise seems too much for the Chinese Muslim separatists to execute, there are helpful intelligence services all over the world that would train them just to make the Chinese go through hell. Russians, Syrians, Iranians, etc. -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
"Kurt Ullman" wrote in message
"Robert Green" wrote: My opinion is that it's evidence of the human mind needing to have rational explanations for everything that happens. It's why early man created Zeus (to explain thunder and lightning) and probably why we've got civilization. It's insatiable curiosity coupled with a fear of the unknown. We want to make things "knowable" so they don't frighten us. Which brings to about the only interesting quote from the short-lived 8th Doctor:" "I love humans. Always seeing patterns in things that aren't there." There are some who study intelligence that believe that almost all of our intellect arises from our ability to detect patterns. Some say it was the ability of early humans to read tracks left by animals that catapulted us to the top of the food chain. I personally believe it was figuring out eclipses and the motions of the sun and stars that gave us our edge. Sometimes I wonder if intelligent life will be found only on worlds where there are things like full eclipses. Speaking of Dr. Who and SciFi I started playing the Bab5 DVDs on the big screen TV instead of the computer monitor and it seems they converted a 4x3 aspect ration to 16x9. The image gets incredibly grainy at times. Also, it's painfully obvious how much special effects have improved in 20 years. The FX really suffer because they are blown up to the wider aspect ratio. However, if they didn't do it during production of the DVDs, I probably would have done it with the remote's zoom button. I hate watching 4x3 programs on the wide screen TV. One thing's for sure. A lot of us know a lot more about airplanes than we did a week ago! I don't know. My cynical suggests in the final analysis we may know even less.... How did you get a cynical to survive in captivity? I heard they're hard as hell to keep alive. (-: -- Bobby G. |
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Flight MH370 disaster - new theory (asphyxia - air problems)
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: Seat cushions and bits of foam are not really very big targets And there's always an enormous amount of junk floating in the ocean everywhere. I wonder what the bottom line $ cost will be for this effort and how much US taxpayers will spend. It costs a lot of $ per hour to operate those big Navy ships. I wonder how much is sunk costs and how much is marginal. Some of this could also be used as training for some of the specialties. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
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Flight MH370 disaster - Some thoughts about telemetry, hijacking
In article ,
"Robert Green" wrote: Merely parroting it. So instead of actually trying to find out what is happening they are just grabbing onto whatever flotsam and jetsam wonders by as if it was actually news? And this is news to you? (-: My J-prof said that news comes from person A trying to harm person B through a journalist. It turned out for things like Watergate, he was right. Mark Felt disliked Nixon for getting passed over to head the FBI, hence he became Deep Throat. At least Mark Felt had actual information and W&B took sometime to look for backup material to corroborate. This seems to be just putting stuff for the same of putting stuff out. There is no apparent vetting of most of this which leads to all these whackadoodle theories. The law of unintended consequences is quite a powerful one. I am not sure that this really rises to that level. In regards to a locked cabin door preventing the passengers from overwhelming the hijackers instead of keeping the hijackers out? No. At least to my mind you can't invoke law of unintendened consequences without a line of similar occurrence (my fave discussion of tax policy for instance). In this case it appears to be a one off that is specific to this happenstance (of course assuming it actually happened this way of which there is little or no real evidence just bloviation on an international scale. In the long run, I don't see much good coming out of the passengers taking over the cockpit. It would probably cause the plane to crash sooner. Don't have to be scared as long... I still think that is much more related to what is orders of magnitude more likely to happen. This is a random occurance. I think this is anything but random. Latest working theory: China wants to "pacify" their Muslim extremists and what better way than to whip up a fury about a suicidal Muslim pilot killing a plane load of innocent Chinese people. This is the kind of operation spooks love. Very few but highly trained people are involved, little chance of compromise, plausible deniability and if push comes to shove, the bosses can always assassinate the actors. How do you say "Jack Ruby" in Mandarin? How do you say more unsubstantiated BS. Geez Louise we can't leave any fanciful theory unturned? This is just getting sadder. -- ³Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.² ‹ Aaron Levenstein |
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