On 08/05/2015 10:26, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
....
The trouble is that people believed the 'vote UKIP, get Miliband' guff.
....

I suspect that, for a lot of people, vote UKIP and get Nigel would be
discouragement enough.


--
Colin Bignell

"Andy Burns" wrote in message
o.uk...
Jacko wrote:

The Natural Philosopher wrote:

FPTP means you need better than about 23% of the national vote to have a
say,

And UKIP didnt even manage half of that, tho they did
get a referendum on leaving the EU, which they will lose.

But perhaps Cameron's 'renegotiating' ahead of that referendum will grind
enough sharp corners off the EU that after we vote to stay in, most people
won't have so much to moan about Europe,

I'd be surprised if the EU will do that.

so no distraction requiring UKIP come the next general election ...

That is certainly possible.

Having had 10 years the conservatives will no longer have much cause to
blame Blair/Brown for whatever state the country is in by then.

But they may well have seen the economy pick up even more
noticeably than it has already. After all, one of the lowest
unemployment rates in europe is a pretty decent result.

It remains to be seen if the voters will notice,
but IMO that is the main reason the Tories did
end up with an absolute majority this time.

SNP will be thorns in everyone's side

Maybe. It's hard to say how many agree with
Dennis that the sooner they leave the better.
Or even if they will get a different result in
another referendum in the unlikely event
that they get another given that the Tories
have an absolute majority now.

(they will get the 3rd chunk of PMQs to allow them to be vocal)

Sure, but that is just more political **** and wind.

hopefully Milliband's replacement won't kiss and make-up with Sturgeon.

Going to be interesting to see who it ends
up being and what he does about her and
what she does about him.

"Adrian" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 08 May 2015 12:36:30 +0100, Andy Cap wrote:

Presumably you therefore class Australia as a racist country !

Honestly? Christ, yes.

Hard to substantiate that given that they
have twice the immigration rate per capita
and more than that per capita are non whites.

On Fri, 08 May 2015 12:39:54 +0100, Chris French wrote:

I'm no fan of UKIP politically, but they have obviously caught the mood
with a section of the electorate and this has been a very successful
election for them.

Half a million fewer votes than a year ago, despite twice the turnout?

On 08/05/2015 11:14, Jacko wrote:

UKIP will become the new centre right party.

Not a chance with just one MP and no 'leader'


Farage will just wait a few days and then say he didn't mean he wouldn't
be UKIPs leader, he just wanted to grab some headlines!

On 08/05/2015 10:26, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

Bang goes any chance of a referendum on Europe that isn't totally fixed.




Well there was never any chance if UKIP got in, they don't care what the
majority think.

"Dennis@home" wrote in message
eb.com...
On 08/05/2015 11:14, Jacko wrote:

UKIP will become the new centre right party.

Not a chance with just one MP and no 'leader'


Farage will just wait a few days and then say he didn't mean he wouldn't
be UKIPs leader, he just wanted to grab some headlines!

Going to be interesting to watch what happens.

Andy Burns wrote:

But perhaps Cameron's 'renegotiating' ahead of that referendum will
grind enough sharp corners off the EU that after we vote to stay in,
most people won't have so much to moan about Europe, so no distraction
requiring UKIP come the next general election ...

In my view, Europe is a bastion of sanity, tolerance and democracy,
besieged by lunatics of one hue or another.
Step out of the EU and you are in another world.
That doesn't mean the EU is well-run. It isn't, it is very badly run.
It needs urgent, radical reform.
But people think that in every country in the EU.
Cameron is knocking at an open door, as far as EU reform is concerned.
He has the opportunity to lead Europe to a better, dare I say more British,
future.


--
Timothy Murphy
gayleard /at/ eircom.net
School of Mathematics, Trinity College, Dublin

"Chris French" wrote in message
...
In message , Jacko
writes


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 08/05/15 11:21, Tim Watts wrote:
On 08/05/15 11:16, Jacko wrote:


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 08/05/15 08:48, Nightjar "cpb"@ wrote:
On 08/05/2015 07:13, Tim Watts wrote:
Well, this is interesting. Gone from a hung prediction to a
possible
absolute majority for the tories.

Even if they don't, a minority government is much more of a
realistic
possibility for them.


My money is on Millibean Clegg resigning as leaders in the next few
months.

Still watching for Thanet South to declare, to see whether Nigel
will
need to keep to his promise to resign.

I think he likely will. He's exhausted..

If one election leaves him exhausted, he's a complete dud.

He's run the party almost single handed for 10 years

Maggie left that for dead.

She wasn't running the party single handed.

She did actually for more than 10 years
until they had to use a JCB to get rid of her.

Anyway, given the rise in UKIP's fortunes over the last 5-10 years,

Half the result they got a year ago.

through which Farage has been the main figure and the public face of UKIP,
it would seem quite reasonable for him to say time for other people to
take things forward.

And it remains to be seen if he does anything of the sort.

Bet he doesn't.

and taken it from 5th place to 3rd place in the popularity stakes.

And ended up with just one MP.

That's the nature of things with our FPTP voting system.

Even Shin Fein left that for dead.

For them to even get one MP is a success given where they have come from

I'm no fan of UKIP politically, but they have obviously caught the mood
with a section of the electorate

Its hardly surprising that a bit more than 10% don't
want to be part of the EU and don't like immigrants.

and this has been a very successful election for them.

They couldn't even manage to get their 'leader' elected.

3 rd largest share of the vote outside Scotland,

But still only a bit more than 10%.

2nd place it quite a lot of seats (certainly round here) .

But with just one MP. That is pathetic.

On 08/05/2015 13:07, Dennis@home wrote:
On 08/05/2015 11:14, Jacko wrote:

UKIP will become the new centre right party.

Not a chance with just one MP and no 'leader'


Farage will just wait a few days and then say he didn't mean he wouldn't
be UKIPs leader, he just wanted to grab some headlines!

No he won't, he is on record this morning, saying that he'll have a long
summer holiday and review his stance on standing again in september.

"Timothy Murphy" wrote in message
...
Andy Burns wrote:

But perhaps Cameron's 'renegotiating' ahead of that referendum will
grind enough sharp corners off the EU that after we vote to stay in,
most people won't have so much to moan about Europe, so no distraction
requiring UKIP come the next general election ...

In my view, Europe is a bastion of sanity, tolerance and democracy,

Hard to substantiate that when some much
policy is determined by unelected bureaucrats.

besieged by lunatics of one hue or another.
Step out of the EU and you are in another world.

One which works pretty well in the case of Norway and Switzerland.

That doesn't mean the EU is well-run. It isn't, it is very badly run.

And is nothing like democratic on policy.

It needs urgent, radical reform.
But people think that in every country in the EU.

France and Germany don't.

Cameron is knocking at an open door,
as far as EU reform is concerned.

He has the opportunity to lead Europe
to a better, dare I say more British, future.

Not when the unelected bureaucrats just make
an obscene gesture in his general direction.

On 08/05/2015 11:24, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

At least we'll be spared the endless coverage of our Nige on TV.

I've not seen any at all meself.



That's why you think UKIP is good, you don't have a clue.

He will change his mind when he needs a bit of publicity.

"Dennis@home" wrote in message
web.com...
On 08/05/2015 07:32, Jacko wrote:


"Tim Watts" wrote in message
...
Well, this is interesting. Gone from a hung prediction to a possible
absolute majority for the tories.

Yeah, nothing like what the pollsters predicted.

Not surprising giving the percentage of undecided voters tho.

Hell of a result with the SNP that no one predicted either.

They were predicting the SNP to take all the foreign seats last week.

No they were not.

Now we need their power to interfere in England removing!

Isn't going to happen.

If there had been a UK referendum on Scottish nationalisation they would
have gone!

So do you believe that the entire EU should
be voting on whether to kick Britain out ?

On 08/05/2015 09:37, Chris Hogg wrote:
On 8 May 2015 08:34:06 GMT, Huge wrote:

On 2015-05-08, Tim Watts wrote:
Well, this is interesting. Gone from a hung prediction to a possible
absolute majority for the tories.

My money is on Millibean Clegg resigning as leaders in the next few months.

s/months/hours/

Balls lost his seat. I am *SO* please.

+hundreds!


I'm sad, he was a weight around labour's neck.

On Fri, 08 May 2015 13:10:33 +0100, Dennis@home wrote:

Bang goes any chance of a referendum on Europe that isn't totally
fixed.

Well there was never any chance if UKIP got in, they don't care what the
majority think.

Weren't UKIP saying no referendum was needed?
Probably because they knew damn well that the answer wouldn't suit them.

After all, only 8.3% of the electorate cared enough about UKIP's opinions
to vote for them yesterday.

On 08/05/2015 13:26, Bod wrote:
On 08/05/2015 13:07, Dennis@home wrote:
On 08/05/2015 11:14, Jacko wrote:

UKIP will become the new centre right party.

Not a chance with just one MP and no 'leader'


Farage will just wait a few days and then say he didn't mean he wouldn't
be UKIPs leader, he just wanted to grab some headlines!

No he won't, he is on record this morning, saying that he'll have a long
summer holiday and review his stance on standing again in september.

Which only means he is going to wait more than a few days. He is well
aware that, if you mention the name of any other senior UKIP member, or
even their MP, most people will say 'Who?'. Even by the standards of a
politician, I find him untrustworthy. However, without Nigel at the
helm, UKIP will almost certainly fade back into obscurity and he knows it.

--
Colin Bignell

On 08/05/2015 13:40, Adrian wrote:
On Fri, 08 May 2015 13:10:33 +0100, Dennis@home wrote:

Bang goes any chance of a referendum on Europe that isn't totally
fixed.

Well there was never any chance if UKIP got in, they don't care what the
majority think.

Weren't UKIP saying no referendum was needed?
Probably because they knew damn well that the answer wouldn't suit them.

After all, only 8.3% of the electorate cared enough about UKIP's opinions
to vote for them yesterday.

But! "UKIP has won a 13% vote share in the election and has one MP,
Douglas Carswell, who held his Clacton seat.
It puts the party in third place behind the Conservatives and Labour in
terms of share of the vote."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32633719

In article ,
Jacko wrote:
I think he likely will. He's exhausted..

If one election leaves him exhausted, he's a complete dud.

Given the amount he smokes and drinks it's hardly surprising he has no
stamina.

--
*If at first you don't succeed, redefine success.

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
Tim Watts wrote:
On 08/05/15 11:04, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

Excellent. The village mentality lot have been scuppered.


No - we should have a referendum - like the scots - to put the issue to
bed once and for all.

But it wouldn't.

Salmond might pop up and say that all bar 2 seats mean Scotland wants
independence - but everyone else will respond "you had a referendum and
the people decided to stay - so shut up..."

There will be another referendum sooner or later. Unless steps really are
taken to address those grievances that caused the SNP landslide.

--
*Seen it all, done it all, can't remember most of it*

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
At least we'll be spared the endless coverage of our Nige on TV.

I've not seen any at all meself.

He got far more coverage than any other minority party with similar
support. Before the hustings started. On BBC TV news, etc. That bastion of
Labour support.

--
*Those who live by the sword get shot by those who don't*

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
On 08/05/15 11:12, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
SNP are just a narrow racist party of bigots, but that's what the scots
want.

But as a UKIP fanatic, surely that's exactly what you approve of?


Oddly, no.

Which only goes to reveal your bigotry.

As ever, your 'logic' is weird.

Not my logic, your delusions.

You've not read any of the racist and bigoted comments of UKIP members?
I'm wondering how you could possibly have missed them?

--
*You are validating my inherent mistrust of strangers

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On 08/05/15 14:17, Tim Streater wrote:

Nice to see the Libs back in their (telephone) box.

Norman Lamont (?) once said that if the Libs didn't exist, there'd be
no reason top invent them. The electorate has found the Libs out. No
principles, just a loose amalgam of lefter-than-labour, and disaffected
former tories

They may have been that, but they used to be one of the two principle
parties from the 1850s until labour took their place in 1924.

In article ,
Adrian wrote:
On Fri, 08 May 2015 11:09:34 +0100, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

At least we'll be spared the endless coverage of our Nige on TV.

Oh, I dunno.

I'm a Sleb, Big Brother, Bake-off, Strictly...


That's ok. I don't watch them. ;-)

--
*I used to have an open mind but my brains kept falling out *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On 08/05/2015 09:38, Jacko wrote:


"Andy Cap" wrote in message
o.uk...
On 08/05/15 07:13, Tim Watts wrote:
Well, this is interesting. Gone from a hung prediction to a possible
absolute majority for the tories.

My money is on Millibean Clegg resigning as leaders in the next few
months.

The most telling fact is...

SNP 7% of the vote = 56 MPs
LBS 8% of the vote = 8 MPs
UKIP 12% of the vote = 1 MP

Approx figs !

Time for PR ?

No thanks, that sees nothing but coalition governments
and the tiny minority parties with far more influence than
the percentage of the voters who vote for them warrants.

Coalition governments have really screwed the Germans haven't they.

In message , Adrian
writes
On Fri, 08 May 2015 12:39:54 +0100, Chris French wrote:

I'm no fan of UKIP politically, but they have obviously caught the mood
with a section of the electorate and this has been a very successful
election for them.

Half a million fewer votes than a year ago, despite twice the turnout?

A different election, for a different body. So I don't see them as
directly comparable.

But I was looking at the broad picture. In terms of a uk general
election it's a good result for them. Which way things go for them now
we will have to see.
--
Chris French

Jacko wrote:

In my view, Europe is a bastion of sanity, tolerance and democracy,

Hard to substantiate that when some much
policy is determined by unelected bureaucrats.

besieged by lunatics of one hue or another.
Step out of the EU and you are in another world.

One which works pretty well in the case of Norway and Switzerland.

Both are in effect members of the EU without voting rights.
They have agreed to follow all the rules of the EU.
I have a relation working in Brussels for the EU
who says there are more Norwegians on the staff there than Irish.
I guess if the UK left the EU they would be in more or less
the same position, as long as they did not annoy the other members
too much on the way out.

That doesn't mean the EU is well-run. It isn't, it is very badly run.

And is nothing like democratic on policy.

In theory policy is determined by the ministerial councils.
The bureaucrats have power - as in any democratic country -
because the politicians do not, or cannot, agree on policy.

It needs urgent, radical reform.
But people think that in every country in the EU.

France and Germany don't.

You hear exactly the same criticisms of Brussels in both countries.
Have you heard of Madame Le Pen?
Her party gets 2 or 3 times as many votes as UKIP.
I would imagine the views of Cameron and Merkel on Brussels
are more or less identical.

Cameron is knocking at an open door,
as far as EU reform is concerned.

He has the opportunity to lead Europe
to a better, dare I say more British, future.

Not when the unelected bureaucrats just make
an obscene gesture in his general direction.

I don't agree.
Cameron has never said exactly - or even roughly - what reforms he wants.
I thought when he opposed Juncker if he had only rung Renzi in Italy,
and a few other PMs, he would have got his way.
I suspect he really wanted Juncker to get the job,
so he could say, "I told you so".

--
Timothy Murphy
gayleard /at/ eircom.net
School of Mathematics, Trinity College, Dublin

In article ,
Tim Streater wrote:
I was at the Medway count last night. The highlight of the night was
being there as Reckless discovered he had lost (it was obvious for some
time, in fact, watching how the counted votes were stacking up).

I envy you. Seeing one who only gives a damn about his own career getting
his comeuppance must have been good.

--
*Does fuzzy logic tickle? *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

There will be another referendum sooner or later. Unless steps really are
taken to address those grievances that caused the SNP landslide.


The Scots grievances are largely imaginary and self inflicted. They
want a Socialist republic. It seems that the solution is for them to go
independent, whilst we wait for reality to bite. It will be much cheaper
for the rest of the UK.

Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In ,
The Natural wrote:
At least we'll be spared the endless coverage of our Nige on TV.

I've not seen any at all meself.

He got far more coverage than any other minority party with similar
support. Before the hustings started. On BBC TV news, etc. That bastion of
Labour support.


Minority party should not come into it. All parties should have equal
coverage relative to the number of candidates.

Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In ,
wrote:
I think he likely will. He's exhausted..

If one election leaves him exhausted, he's a complete dud.

Given the amount he smokes and drinks it's hardly surprising he has no
stamina.


Churchill did quite well!

In article ,
Capitol wrote:
Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

There will be another referendum sooner or later. Unless steps really
are taken to address those grievances that caused the SNP landslide.


The Scots grievances are largely imaginary and self inflicted.

Researched it thoroughly, have you?

They
want a Socialist republic.

The royal family is at least as popular in Scotland as in the rest of the
UK.


It seems that the solution is for them to go
independent, whilst we wait for reality to bite.

So you also apparently know more than any of the national UK parties,
then?

It will be much cheaper for the rest of the UK.

If Scotland did get independence, it would be rapidly followed by regions
of the rest of the UK. Many of whom have the same grievances as Scotland.

--
*Avoid clichés like the plague. (They're old hat.) *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
Capitol wrote:
He got far more coverage than any other minority party with similar
support. Before the hustings started. On BBC TV news, etc. That
bastion of Labour support.


Minority party should not come into it. All parties should have equal
coverage relative to the number of candidates.

********. Anyone can set up a political party. And would do for the free
advertising.

--
Is the hardness of the butter proportional to the softness of the bread?*

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
Capitol wrote:
Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In ,
wrote:
I think he likely will. He's exhausted..

If one election leaves him exhausted, he's a complete dud.

Given the amount he smokes and drinks it's hardly surprising he has no
stamina.


Churchill did quite well!

Might be as well to read some history.

--
*A conclusion is the place where you got tired of thinking *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

Milli already has. The whole thing is, now thankfully now all over for
another few years, and Boris got in as well, so he could be leader by the
time of the next one.
Brian

--
From the Sofa of Brian Gaff Reply address is active
"Tim Watts" wrote in message
...
Well, this is interesting. Gone from a hung prediction to a possible
absolute majority for the tories.

My money is on Millibean Clegg resigning as leaders in the next few
months.

On Fri, 08 May 2015 16:16:53 +0200, Timothy Murphy wrote:

Step out of the EU and you are in another world.

One which works pretty well in the case of Norway and Switzerland.

Both are in effect members of the EU without voting rights.
They have agreed to follow all the rules of the EU.

As Schengen countries, they actually follow MORE centralised European
rules than the UK does, and have absolutely no control over non-EU
migration or borders to all other Schengen countries. Unlike the UK,
which has absolute control, and only has open borders to Ireland.

An Albanian can move to Switzerland or Norway tomorrow, with no paperwork
other than a passport, and work for three months per year perfectly
legally.

If he even tried to visit London for a holiday like that, he'd be refused
entry unless he had a tourist visa that costs half a month's average
wages, lots of officially-translated paperwork, and could be arbitrarily
rejected for no reason.

On 08/05/15 11:34, Jacko wrote:


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 08/05/15 10:58, Jacko wrote:
Looks like the Tories have just got a viable majority even if
technically they haven't quite got enough seats yet.

They will shiver their way through a lameish duck parliament

Bet they dont and will in fact continue to see a decent recovery
which is the reason they ended up with a majority this time.

One of the lowest unemployment rates in europe is a decent result.
yes, Osborne will do a good job there, without Limp Dim interference.
Its more the repealing of social leftislation and the shrinking of
government and the evasion of brussels incompetence that worries me.


--
Everything you read in newspapers is absolutely true, except for the
rare story of which you happen to have first-hand knowledge. €“ Erwin Knoll

On 08/05/15 11:36, Jacko wrote:


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 08/05/15 11:04, Jacko wrote:


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 08/05/15 08:23, Andy Burns wrote:
Tim Watts wrote:

Well, this is interesting. Gone from a hung prediction to a possible
absolute majority for the tories.

My money is on Millibean Clegg resigning as leaders in the next few
months.

With Balls down, both announcing they will do so within days, I'd say.

UKIP/LD voters, just as well I'm not a betting man eh?

UKIP now third biggest party in terms of votes cast.

But still with just one MP elected and no 'leader' at all.

SNP are behind lib dems.

Not with what matters, the number of MPs.

THAT is a matter for some debate.

Only with those that could barely manage to get just one MP elected.


No, we dont debate people who are simply rude, and sneer.

But ahead of the Greens

The trouble is that people believed the 'vote UKIP, get Miliband' guff.

No, the problem was that those who voted for
UKIP were spread around most of the 650 seats.

Bang goes any chance of a referendum on Europe that isn't totally
fixed.

We'll see...

He did have the balls to let the Scots have one that wasnt totally
fixed.




--
Everything you read in newspapers is absolutely true, except for the
rare story of which you happen to have first-hand knowledge. €“ Erwin Knoll

On 08/05/15 12:04, Jacko wrote:


"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 08/05/15 11:29, Andy Burns wrote:
Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

The Natural Philosopher wrote:

UKIP now third biggest party in terms of votes cast.

Thank gawd we don't have PR. Those that voted for them aren't clever
enough to deserve a vote.

But if we'd have PR before now, would people have become frustrated
enough with FPTP to have ever voted UKIP, or to have put them more than
a 3rd favourite vote?

FPTP means you need better than about 23% of the national vote to have
a say,

And UKIP didnt even manage half of that, tho they did
get a referendum on leaving the EU, which they will lose.

unless you are a narrow nationalist localist party like the SNP

UKIP is that except for the localist.


Well lie all you like. 3 million people dont agree.

In the end people were more scared of Miliband than Brussels. *shrug*.

Only a little more than 10% want to leave the EU and hate immigrants.


--
Everything you read in newspapers is absolutely true, except for the
rare story of which you happen to have first-hand knowledge. €“ Erwin Knoll

On 08/05/15 12:30, Nightjar "cpb"@ wrote:
On 08/05/2015 12:14, Adrian wrote:
On Fri, 08 May 2015 12:08:32 +0100, Nightjar "cpb"@ wrote:

But Nigel wont vanish.

He has already announced that, having resigned, he will stand again for
the leadership.

"might"

I was translating from politician speak. Any politician who says they
'might consider' standing as party leader is likely to be at the front
of the queue when nominations open.

Nigel isn't 'any politician' and I've seen him 'at work'. His work rate
is phenomenal.

He will take the summer off and have a think. Is my guess.


--
Everything you read in newspapers is absolutely true, except for the
rare story of which you happen to have first-hand knowledge. €“ Erwin Knoll

On 08/05/2015 16:13, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Capitol wrote:
Dave Plowman (News) wrote:

There will be another referendum sooner or later. Unless steps really
are taken to address those grievances that caused the SNP landslide.


The Scots grievances are largely imaginary and self inflicted.

Researched it thoroughly, have you?

They
want a Socialist republic.

The royal family is at least as popular in Scotland as in the rest of the
UK.


It seems that the solution is for them to go
independent, whilst we wait for reality to bite.

So you also apparently know more than any of the national UK parties,
then?

It will be much cheaper for the rest of the UK.

If Scotland did get independence, it would be rapidly followed by regions
of the rest of the UK. Many of whom have the same grievances as Scotland.

I doubt if Wales and N Ireland will push too hard for concessions
because they are both heavily subsidised by England already.