repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget cuts?

--
http://www.gillsmith999.plus.com/

"Gill Smith" wrote in message
.. .
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget
cuts?


I suspect the biggest issue is the way the Pound goes against the dollar.

Gill Smith wrote:
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget cuts?

Depends whether that is greater than the increase in VAT.

"Andrew May" wrote in message
...
Gill Smith wrote:
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget
cuts?

Depends whether that is greater than the increase in VAT.

and whether the damage from not fixing the roof offsets the deflationary
price fall!

--
http://www.gillsmith999.plus.com/

On May 12, 8:57*pm, "Gill Smith"
wrote:
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget cuts?

If it needs doing, just do it. There's always something around the
corner and you will procrastinate forever, otherwise.

Somw you'll win, some you'll lose.

MBQ

BCO do not like deflationary episodes... leaves a lot of dust to clean
up :-)

Short Term we may well have deflation.
Probably 6-8 months this year if it occurs, combined with a likely
double dip in as much because the recovery was just deficit/debt/
restocking fuelled. I think Q1 growth will be bettery than January
suggested re bad weather, BUT then Q2-Q3 growth will be less than one
would project based on Q1 numbers. Enough to whipsaw the market a bit
anyway - although limited by "somewhat low figures anyway".
This is why the BoE "jawboning" risks to economic growth directly
spooked currency & bond traders.

Mid Term we will have various indirect & direct tax rises.

Long Term we will have a stinker of inflation.
Central Bankers know how to 1) create inflation and 2) fight inflation
- whereas deflation is the bogeyman they fear, debt remains the same
but ability to pay down the debt diminishes making the debt ever more
onerous.


Overall the real short term problem is we have a big deficit AND we do
not have sufficient growth to cut the deficit by much.
That is a serious problem, because 1995-1997-2008 was in fact a credit
fuelled binge "if nothing else works, relax the credit rules to a
posteri-credit-testing rather than apriori ". The UK can devalue since
it has a floating currency unlike the Euro - but unlike the Euro it
does not have the "under-duvet" ability to go to the Euro bailout fund
(it has to go to the IMF).

We sadly need a serious rejigging of house prices (down), deficit
(down), general bureacratic spending (down), taxes I'm afraid (up) and
yet maintain positive GDP - it's a case of "pick any two because you
can't have the third". Gordon Brown & Mandelson were laughing as much
about "well we do not have to figure out the financial mess anymore,
nor can we be blamed for it when it gets worse".

BAD thing for bond holders is that if this IS the bottom in yields,
then the peak is some 12-15% North of here - which in Bond Price terms
means your income is going to come from principal in effect. By that I
mean potentially 70-81% loss in price over 20yrs due to the explosion
in yield over that time. Of course housing would be toast so we are
trying to treat an impossible path, in the dark, not knowing if the
route leads anywhere and without any ease means to go backwards.


GOOD thing for DIYers is you may find prices remain keen or become
keener as the year goes on in order to get the revenue up if only to
maintain inventory turnover & feed the credit line monster. That is to
say, I think you will find companies offer "less range, similar or
better prices" since they substitute bulk-buy in place of breadth to
"catch every dollar".

js.b1 wrote:
BCO do not like deflationary episodes... leaves a lot of dust to clean
up :-)

Short Term we may well have deflation.
Probably 6-8 months this year if it occurs, combined with a likely
double dip in as much because the recovery was just deficit/debt/
restocking fuelled. I think Q1 growth will be bettery than January
suggested re bad weather, BUT then Q2-Q3 growth will be less than one
would project based on Q1 numbers. Enough to whipsaw the market a bit
anyway - although limited by "somewhat low figures anyway".
This is why the BoE "jawboning" risks to economic growth directly
spooked currency & bond traders.

Mid Term we will have various indirect & direct tax rises.

Long Term we will have a stinker of inflation.
Central Bankers know how to 1) create inflation and 2) fight inflation
- whereas deflation is the bogeyman they fear, debt remains the same
but ability to pay down the debt diminishes making the debt ever more
onerous.


Overall the real short term problem is we have a big deficit AND we do
not have sufficient growth to cut the deficit by much.
That is a serious problem, because 1995-1997-2008 was in fact a credit
fuelled binge "if nothing else works, relax the credit rules to a
posteri-credit-testing rather than apriori ". The UK can devalue since
it has a floating currency unlike the Euro - but unlike the Euro it
does not have the "under-duvet" ability to go to the Euro bailout fund
(it has to go to the IMF).

We sadly need a serious rejigging of house prices (down), deficit
(down), general bureacratic spending (down), taxes I'm afraid (up) and
yet maintain positive GDP - it's a case of "pick any two because you
can't have the third". Gordon Brown & Mandelson were laughing as much
about "well we do not have to figure out the financial mess anymore,
nor can we be blamed for it when it gets worse".

BAD thing for bond holders is that if this IS the bottom in yields,
then the peak is some 12-15% North of here - which in Bond Price terms
means your income is going to come from principal in effect. By that I
mean potentially 70-81% loss in price over 20yrs due to the explosion
in yield over that time. Of course housing would be toast so we are
trying to treat an impossible path, in the dark, not knowing if the
route leads anywhere and without any ease means to go backwards.


GOOD thing for DIYers is you may find prices remain keen or become
keener as the year goes on in order to get the revenue up if only to
maintain inventory turnover & feed the credit line monster. That is to
say, I think you will find companies offer "less range, similar or
better prices" since they substitute bulk-buy in place of breadth to
"catch every dollar".
Good analysis.

wrote:
On 13 May,
"OG" wrote:

"Gill Smith" wrote in message
.. .
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget
cuts?

I suspect the biggest issue is the way the Pound goes against the dollar.


Or the extra VAT we'll have to pay.


I think so 20% or 22.5% immediately will more or less solve the deficit
crisis in the short term, and its an easy fix.

Expect it very soon.

wrote in message ...
On 13 May,
"OG" wrote:


"Gill Smith" wrote in message
.. .
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget
cuts?


I suspect the biggest issue is the way the Pound goes against the dollar.


Or the extra VAT we'll have to pay.

Increasing VAT from 17.5% to 20% increases prices by a little above 2%.

The dollar rate has changed by more than 10% in the last 4 months.

OG wrote:
wrote in message ...
On 13 May,
"OG" wrote:

"Gill Smith" wrote in message
.. .
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget
cuts?

I suspect the biggest issue is the way the Pound goes against the dollar.


Or the extra VAT we'll have to pay.

Increasing VAT from 17.5% to 20% increases prices by a little above 2%.

The dollar rate has changed by more than 10% in the last 4 months.


But we buy more stuff in pounds than in dollars.

and the guv mint makes money out of VAT, but it doesn't do covered short
contracts on dollar-sterling rates.

Mind you, it could make a killing if it did, as one simple policy
statement could net it a few billion betting against a bank.

Ultimate inside trade really.

On Thu, 13 May 2010 23:02:22 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
wrote:
On 13 May,
"OG" wrote:

"Gill Smith" wrote in message
.. .
repair now

or later, in the hope that prices drop because of deflationary budget
cuts?

I suspect the biggest issue is the way the Pound goes against the dollar.


Or the extra VAT we'll have to pay.


I think so 20% or 22.5% immediately will more or less solve the deficit
crisis in the short term, and its an easy fix.

Expect it very soon.

I fully expect the govt. to implement all the cuts it said it would. Plus
all the cuts the other lot said they would. Plus all the cuts they (all) said
they would _NOT_ implement and then about the same amount again.
That might just do it.