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#1
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LRod wrote:
On Tue, 25 Jan 2005 09:23:12 -0600, Duane Bozarth wrote: LRod wrote: ... Sorry how? "Better-safe-than-sorry" is only reasonable advice when there is a possibility, even remote possibility of an event occuring. In the cas of a single home shop dust explosion in a plastic pipe ducted system there is ZERO chance. ... Well, the conclusion of the article is to quote.. "...home shop DC explosions are somewhere between extraordinarily rare and nonexistent." That is not precisely zero... While rare, railing at such extremes is just not warranted... Oh, WELL. I stand corrected. Given, however, that my point was that it was fruitless to expend resources in pursuit of "preventing" an occurance that is "somewhere between extraordinarily rare and nonexistent," it seems I've been vindicated. Picking fly **** out of pepper over whether it's actually zero or just really, really close to it is to obscure the bigger truth. Not really. Making statements like "zero chance" obscures truth very nicely. That, and your "bucket of water" example was truly laughable. Homer |
#2
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![]() "Homer" wrote in message ... LRod wrote: On Tue, 25 Jan 2005 09:23:12 -0600, Duane Bozarth wrote: LRod wrote: ... Sorry how? "Better-safe-than-sorry" is only reasonable advice when there is a possibility, even remote possibility of an event occuring. In the cas of a single home shop dust explosion in a plastic pipe ducted system there is ZERO chance. ... Well, the conclusion of the article is to quote.. "...home shop DC explosions are somewhere between extraordinarily rare and nonexistent." That is not precisely zero... While rare, railing at such extremes is just not warranted... Oh, WELL. I stand corrected. Given, however, that my point was that it was fruitless to expend resources in pursuit of "preventing" an occurance that is "somewhere between extraordinarily rare and nonexistent," it seems I've been vindicated. Picking fly **** out of pepper over whether it's actually zero or just really, really close to it is to obscure the bigger truth. Not really. Making statements like "zero chance" obscures truth very nicely. That, and your "bucket of water" example was truly laughable. Was it, or did you just not understand it? Please give the exact percentage chance for the said bucket of water bursting into flames. -- If at first you don't succeed, you're not cut out for skydiving |
#3
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On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 16:49:26 GMT, "TBone"
wrote: That, and your "bucket of water" example was truly laughable. Was it, or did you just not understand it? Please give the exact percentage chance for the said bucket of water bursting into flames. I'd settle for a reasonable estimate. I'd bet a large amount of money the answer will have "zero" as part of it: "approaches zero," "nearly zero," "greater than zero, but..." are probabilities that come immediately to mind. - - LRod Master Woodbutcher and seasoned termite Shamelessly whoring my website since 1999 http://www.woodbutcher.net |
#4
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On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 17:37:15 +0000, LRod
wrote: On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 16:49:26 GMT, "TBone" wrote: That, and your "bucket of water" example was truly laughable. Was it, or did you just not understand it? Please give the exact percentage chance for the said bucket of water bursting into flames. I'd settle for a reasonable estimate. I'd bet a large amount of money the answer will have "zero" as part of it: "approaches zero," "nearly zero," "greater than zero, but..." are probabilities that come immediately to mind. - - LRod you could get that bucket of water to make quite a nice big 'ol explosion- but you'll have to crack the oxygen from the hydrogen first. if you can do that in your garage, then I'm really happy I don't live next door to you. |
#5
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![]() wrote in message ... On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 17:37:15 +0000, LRod wrote: On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 16:49:26 GMT, "TBone" wrote: That, and your "bucket of water" example was truly laughable. Was it, or did you just not understand it? Please give the exact percentage chance for the said bucket of water bursting into flames. I'd settle for a reasonable estimate. I'd bet a large amount of money the answer will have "zero" as part of it: "approaches zero," "nearly zero," "greater than zero, but..." are probabilities that come immediately to mind. - - LRod you could get that bucket of water to make quite a nice big 'ol explosion- but you'll have to crack the oxygen from the hydrogen first. if you can do that in your garage, then I'm really happy I don't live next door to you. Yea, but then it wouldn't be water anymore. |
#6
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THAT is an accurate way of expressing it. Finally.
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#7
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The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing
whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. |
#8
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On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote:
The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. Apparently, bonehead, you think that the laws of physics are just suggestions. There are all sorts of certainties. Water not bursting into flame in your shop is one of them. If you don't get the connection of that illustration to woodworking and the myth of the exploding home shop dust collection system, then you are apparently just skimming the posts to find something to argue about. - - LRod Master Woodbutcher and seasoned termite Shamelessly whoring my website since 1999 http://www.woodbutcher.net |
#9
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Exactly which "laws of physics" cover flaming buckets of water?
Can you name one or provide a citation ? |
#10
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On 26 Jan 2005 12:41:18 -0800, "Gus" wrote:
Exactly which "laws of physics" cover flaming buckets of water? Can you name one or provide a citation ? Water doesn't burn. Look it up. - - LRod Master Woodbutcher and seasoned termite Shamelessly whoring my website since 1999 http://www.woodbutcher.net |
#11
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On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, Gus wrote:
The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Who are you talking to? There's this really cool thing called "including enough context so people can follow the conversation". |
#12
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![]() "Dave Hinz" wrote in message ... On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, Gus wrote: The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Who are you talking to? There's this really cool thing called "including enough context so people can follow the conversation". And AOL thinks it's a good thing that people today are developing more of a chat room mentality and less of the type of dialog that usenet was built on. -- -Mike- |
#13
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I believe that he is talking to me.
-- If at first you don't succeed, you're not cut out for skydiving "Dave Hinz" wrote in message ... On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, Gus wrote: The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Who are you talking to? There's this really cool thing called "including enough context so people can follow the conversation". |
#14
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![]() "Gus" wrote in message oups.com... The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. Hey Gus - include the text you're replying to will ya? It's impossible to follow who you are replying to when you cut the original text and just post your reply. Most people do not keep the entire thread tree visible in their newsreaders and without that there's no way to know who you're speaking to. In fact, it can really make it difficult to understand the context of a reply. -- -Mike- |
#15
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On Wed, 26 Jan 2005 15:51:57 -0500, Mike Marlow wrote:
Hey Gus - include the text you're replying to will ya? It's impossible to follow who you are replying to when you cut the original text and just post your reply. Yeah, I tried too, but he seemed not to get the hint. |
#16
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Hey Gus - include the text you're replying to will ya? It's
impossible to follow who you are replying to when you cut the original text and just post your reply. Sorry boys, the old quote button was malfunctioning. I must have violated one of them thar "laws of physics" that LRod is always prattling on about. |
#17
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![]() "Gus" wrote in message oups.com... Hey Gus - include the text you're replying to will ya? It's impossible to follow who you are replying to when you cut the original text and just post your reply. Sorry boys, the old quote button was malfunctioning. I must have violated one of them thar "laws of physics" that LRod is always prattling on about. C'mon Gus - none of that stuff now. Hell, there's been enough of folks taking shots at other folks in replies to others lately. Most unpleasant. A good shot should always be thrown directly - it says so right in the hand book. Anyway - thanks for including the text. -- -Mike- |
#18
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![]() "Gus" blabbered on in message oups.com... The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Starting off with name calling I see. That just shows the strength (or lack of) of your argument. Like I said, you simply don't understand. The point is GUS, that there are some things that can be said with 100% certainty and the bucket of water was an example. Unless the laws of physics are different in your world, water in its liquid state cannot burn so there is a 100% certanity that a bucket of water sitting in your garage WILL NOT burst into flames. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Sure I can. If you actually studied a few facts, you could as well. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. I guess that the laws of physics don't apply in your world or are you trying to justify this crap with the chaos theory of variables. The fact is that many of these variables are so rare that they become statistically insignificant and are treated as non-existent. Simple facts say clearly that a bucket of WATER will never burst into flames and if something were to contaminate it and make it flammable, then it is no longer just a bucket of water now, is it? The same can be said for explosions in a home shop dust collection system. The mixture and conditions simply are not there to cause an explosion and if you introduce variables that don't exist in a normal home shop, then you are not dealing with a home shop dust collection system anymore. -- If at first you don't succeed, you're not cut out for skydiving |
#19
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TBone wrote:
"Gus" blabbered on in message oups.com... The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Starting off with name calling I see. That just shows the strength (or lack of) of your argument. Like I said, you simply don't understand. The point is GUS, that there are some things that can be said with 100% certainty and the bucket of water was an example. Unless the laws of physics are different in your world, water in its liquid state cannot burn so there is a 100% certanity that a bucket of water sitting in your garage WILL NOT burst into flames. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Sure I can. If you actually studied a few facts, you could as well. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. I guess that the laws of physics don't apply in your world or are you trying to justify this crap with the chaos theory of variables. The fact is that many of these variables are so rare that they become statistically insignificant and are treated as non-existent. Simple facts say clearly that a bucket of WATER will never burst into flames and if something were to contaminate it and make it flammable, then it is no longer just a bucket of water now, is it? The same can be said for explosions in a home shop dust collection system. The mixture and conditions simply are not there to cause an explosion and if you introduce variables that don't exist in a normal home shop, then you are not dealing with a home shop dust collection system anymore. I sure wish you and/or LRod would elaborate on these "Laws of Physics" you're always quoting with such alacrity. There's all kinds of them, you know, conservation of mass, conservation of energy.....do a little fact checking yourself, TBone. Homer |
#20
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On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote:
The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. Actually, that is not precisely true. Probability theory comprehends the fact that there are events for which the probability of occurence is exactly zero as well as events for which the probability of occurence is exactly 1. In the case of what you are citing above, one can, with absolute certainty state that the probability of a container of helium bursting into a chemical flame is exactly zero since helium is an inert gas and will not combine with oxygen to combust. Another example of absolute certainty: conservation of mass in chemical reactions. These are events for which the probabilities don't approach zero or approach one, they can be stated as being identically equal to zero or one. +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ The absence of accidents does not mean the presence of safety Army General Richard Cody +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |
#21
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Mark & Juanita wrote:
On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote: The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. Actually, that is not precisely true. Probability theory comprehends the fact that there are events for which the probability of occurence is exactly zero as well as events for which the probability of occurence is exactly 1. In the case of what you are citing above, one can, with absolute certainty state that the probability of a container of helium bursting into a chemical flame is exactly zero since helium is an inert gas and will not combine with oxygen to combust. Another example of absolute certainty: conservation of mass in chemical reactions. These are events for which the probabilities don't approach zero or approach one, they can be stated as being identically equal to zero or one. I don't agree. You could say "empirical evidence suggests it won't happen" or "experience shows us it won't happen". Stating a probability as exactly identical to zero is inherently incorrect. |
#22
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Steve Decker wrote:
I don't agree. You could say "empirical evidence suggests it won't happen" or "experience shows us it won't happen". Stating a probability as exactly identical to zero is inherently incorrect. Insert "of an empirical event" after the word "probability" in the last sentence and I agree. Logically false (as opposed to empirically false) statements do have a zero probability of being true. "A and B and (A implies not B)" has a zero probability of being true. But as someone said, we are picking fly specs out of pepper here. I think LRod cited an interesting article pointing out the baselessness of concerns about dust explosions from ducting. While he might have slightly overstated the article's conclusions, those who are reacting negatively to his absolutism (and I tend to be one who so reacts) are missing or avoiding the message of the cited article. -- Alex -- Replace "nospam" with "mail" to reply by email. Checked infrequently. |
#23
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In article ,
Steve Decker wrote: Mark & Juanita wrote: On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote: The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. Actually, that is not precisely true. Probability theory comprehends the fact that there are events for which the probability of occurence is exactly zero as well as events for which the probability of occurence is exactly 1. In the case of what you are citing above, one can, with absolute certainty state that the probability of a container of helium bursting into a chemical flame is exactly zero since helium is an inert gas and will not combine with oxygen to combust. Another example of absolute certainty: conservation of mass in chemical reactions. These are events for which the probabilities don't approach zero or approach one, they can be stated as being identically equal to zero or one. I don't agree. You could say "empirical evidence suggests it won't happen" or "experience shows us it won't happen". Stating a probability as exactly identical to zero is inherently incorrect. You have a single die (a regular hexahedron, with the faces labeled "1", "2", "3", "4", "5", and "6". What is the probability of rolling a "7" ? I do believe that saying "exactly identical to zero" _would_ be an accuracte answer. I'll willingly agree that the _question_ could be considered 'inherently incoherrent'. *grin* |
#24
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Probabilities are measured on a scale of 0 to 1.
Even a "zero" probability is not an indication that an event will never happen. A zero probability states that an even "almost never" happens. A probability of one states that an event "almost always" happens. Therefore, probability theory would state that, while the probability of rolling a 7 is zero, there is still a chance (however small) of it occuring. Let me put this another way. Prior to 9/11/2001, most Americans would have said that the probability of two airliners striking both towers of the World Trade Center within minutes of each other and destroying both, was zero. Yet, it DID happen. LRod actually did make a cogent point in one post that he was willing to settle for a "reasonable estimate". That is actually a good way of explaining the situation. The lesson to be learned here is to refrain from making absolute statements like "zero chance". Gus |
#25
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On Thu, 27 Jan 2005 07:36:23 -0500, Steve Decker
wrote: Mark & Juanita wrote: On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote: .... snip I don't agree. You could say "empirical evidence suggests it won't happen" or "experience shows us it won't happen". Stating a probability as exactly identical to zero is inherently incorrect. Alright, stepping into the realm of pedantry: From the axiomatic definitions of probabilty theory (Papoullis, Probability, Random Variables, and Stochastic Processes), "The probability of an event a is a number P(a) assigned to this event. This number obeys the following three postulates: I. P(a) is positive: P(a) = 0 II The probability of the certain event equals 1: P(S) = 1 III. If a and b are mutually exclusive, then: P(a + b) = P(a) + P(b)" [Version I have at home is McGraw-Hill 1965 version, page 7] Note: from (I), P(a) = 0 is a valid probability. For the examples stated, "a bucket of water bursting into flame", or "a unit of helium bursting into flame", or "conservation of mass in a chemical reaction holds" the probability of these events can be stated to be zero. Unless you are going to imply that the laws of physics and chemistry are muteable --- if that is the case, then the whole fundamental fabric of science and technology is essentially destroyed. i.e., there is no, zero, zilch, zip, nada chance that helium will burn (i.e. oxidize) in an chemical reaction -- helium is an inert gas, it cannot combine with oxygen, it *will not* burn. This is more than "empirical evidence", it is a fundamental element of the chemical nature and properties of elements. If we can say that there is some non-zero probability that elements will behave willy-nilly contrary to their fundamental chemical and nuclear properties, we are wasting our time with science and technology. Thus, in these cases, one can indicate that the probability of those events occuring P(a) = 0, and in addition, the probablity of those events occuring are the impossible event. Further, from II, it is also possible to have a certain event, for which the probability = 1. It is also important to note that one must distinguish between the impossible event, and those events with probability = 0. For example, the probability P(t = t1) = 0 may be true, but not necessarily an impossible event. Same is true that even though the probability of an event = 1, this is not necessarily the certain event. However, for the impossible event P(a) = 0, and for the certain event P(a) = 1. But this is a side detour to the original statement. The fact is that it is *not* inherently incorrect to state that a probability is exactly identical to zero. +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ The absence of accidents does not mean the presence of safety Army General Richard Cody +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |
#26
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On Thu, 27 Jan 2005 20:34:11 -0700, Mark & Juanita
wrote: .... snip Note: from (I), P(a) = 0 is a valid probability. For the examples stated, "a bucket of water bursting into flame", or "a unit of helium bursting into flame", or "conservation of mass in a chemical reaction holds" oops, that should have either been the certain event P(a) = 1, or restated as "conservation of mass in a chemical reaction does not hold" P(a) = 0. the probability of these events can be stated to be zero. Unless you are going to imply that the laws of physics and chemistry are muteable --- if that is the case, then the whole fundamental fabric of science and +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ The absence of accidents does not mean the presence of safety Army General Richard Cody +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ |
#27
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On Friday 28 Jan 2005 3:34 am, Mark & Juanita scribbled:
Note: from (I), P(a) = 0 is a valid probability. For the examples stated, "a bucket of water bursting into flame", or "a unit of helium bursting into flame", or "conservation of mass in a chemical reaction holds" the probability of these events can be stated to be zero. Unless you are going to imply that the laws of physics and chemistry are muteable --- if that is the case, then the whole fundamental fabric of science and technology is essentially destroyed. i.e., there is no, zero, zilch, zip, nada chance that helium will burn (i.e. oxidize) in an chemical reaction -- helium is an inert gas, it cannot combine with oxygen, it *will not* burn. To add to the pedantry, if the quantum effect of neutron decay happened all at once in the bucket (a negligible but not zero probability), the helium could be changed into deuterium and/or berillium and/or lithium and hence burst into flames. Hence, the probability is not zero. -- Luigi Replace "nonet" with "yukonomics" for real email www.yukonomics.ca/wooddorking/humour.html www.yukonomics.ca/wooddorking/antifaq.html |
#28
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On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote:
The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. his point, though was that the odds of your dust collection system exploding- in your garage- are about the same as the odds of a bucket of water exploding -in your garage. and he's right. |
#29
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#30
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On Thu, 27 Jan 2005 11:49:52 -0600, Duane Bozarth
wrote: wrote: ... his point, though was that the odds of your dust collection system exploding- in your garage- are about the same as the odds of a bucket of water exploding -in your garage. and he's right. But he masked the point by the assertion of zero for both...which probably means some will just write off the message as well as the messenger... if a little enthusiasm for the argument is gonna kill the message, you'd better shut down usenet right now. sure, he probably should have goven odds of a few billion to one rather than zero. either way, he was closer to truth than you are. |
#31
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#32
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![]() "Duane Bozarth" wrote in message ... s wrote: ... his point, though was that the odds of your dust collection system exploding- in your garage- are about the same as the odds of a bucket of water exploding -in your garage. and he's right. But he masked the point by the assertion of zero for both...which probably means some will just write off the message as well as the messenger... Why do you say this? Not everyone believe in the absolutely no absolutes BS like some in here. There are things that are simply not going to happen ad some like me believe more in statistical significance. If the chance is so small that it becomes insignificant, this it simply has no chance. I can't speak for you but I have things of real significance to worry about. -- If at first you don't succeed, you're not cut out for skydiving |
#33
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#34
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On Thu, 27 Jan 2005 14:17:07 -0500, Steve Decker
wrote: wrote: On 26 Jan 2005 11:02:38 -0800, "Gus" wrote: The point is, bonehead, that the "bucket of water" example has nothing whatsoever to do with woodworking, dust collection, dust explosions, or anything else even remotely relevant. Obviously, I cannot state, with certainty, the chances of anything bursting into flame. Nor can you. Conversely, you cannot state, with certainty, that something will "never" burst into flame. It's not a question of flammability but of precision in meaning. his point, though was that the odds of your dust collection system exploding- in your garage- are about the same as the odds of a bucket of water exploding -in your garage. and he's right. Not the point his or yours? |
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