"Ed Huntress" wrote:


wrote in message
...
On Aug 7, 11:51 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


That may be the most cocked-up conclusion from a set of graphs ever
published. Virtually ALL of them show that inflation is declining -- in
fact, that we're headed for deflation. Yet they're screaming about
inflation.

Is that what they call doublethink? Or is that just someone gone over the
hill?

--
Ed Huntress

Goods and Services are still inflating. The rate of inflation has
declined, but that is not the same thing as inflation not existing.

Dan

What do you mean by "goods and services"? Do you mean CPI?

Here's total CPI:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

"Wes" wrote in message
...
"Ed Huntress" wrote:


wrote in message
...
On Aug 7, 11:51 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


That may be the most cocked-up conclusion from a set of graphs ever
published. Virtually ALL of them show that inflation is declining -- in
fact, that we're headed for deflation. Yet they're screaming about
inflation.

Is that what they call doublethink? Or is that just someone gone over
the
hill?

--
Ed Huntress

Goods and Services are still inflating. The rate of inflation has
declined, but that is not the same thing as inflation not existing.

Dan

What do you mean by "goods and services"? Do you mean CPI?

Here's total CPI:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help
square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

It's the same graph. I just set the range to 1 yr., so you could see what's
happening now.

It's an option (Range) that you can click on below your graph.

--
Ed Huntress

"Ed Huntress" wrote:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help
square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

It's the same graph. I just set the range to 1 yr., so you could see what's
happening now.

It's an option (Range) that you can click on below your graph.


But what consumer items does it include? Core inflation iirc excludes food fuel. That is
what I really want to know. Btw, it does show that since 1975 the slope of the curve has
increased except for recent times.

Wes

"Wes" wrote in message
...
"Ed Huntress" wrote:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help
square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

It's the same graph. I just set the range to 1 yr., so you could see
what's
happening now.

It's an option (Range) that you can click on below your graph.


But what consumer items does it include? Core inflation iirc excludes
food fuel. That is
what I really want to know. Btw, it does show that since 1975 the slope
of the curve has
increased except for recent times.

As for what's included in CPI, Wikipedia may have a good line on it, or you
could go to the BLS website on the subject:

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/

They have lots of FAQs, etc.

The numbers you and I were looking at include fuel. The St. Louis Fed site
gives you many ways to look at it:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

CPI is one of the categories.

Yes, we've had pretty steady inflation for decades. But we were discussing
the current state of affairs. We have a typical situation in the midst of a
deep recession: inflation low enough that the bigger danger is deflation.

Deflation scares the **** out of financial regulators. Unlike inflation,
there's no sure way to get out of it, once it's started. So the Fed targets
a modest rate of inflation -- I think it's in the range of 1.5% to something
over 2% -- as the ideal.

When you have deflation, banks are in crisis. Wages and prices decline
(wages first, usually) and other bad things happen. Japan had a bout of it
over the past two decades. We had our own during the 1930s.

--
Ed Huntress

On Sat, 07 Aug 2010 18:51:20 -0400, Wes
wrote:

"Ed Huntress" wrote:


wrote in message
...
On Aug 7, 11:51 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


That may be the most cocked-up conclusion from a set of graphs ever
published. Virtually ALL of them show that inflation is declining -- in
fact, that we're headed for deflation. Yet they're screaming about
inflation.

Is that what they call doublethink? Or is that just someone gone over the
hill?

--
Ed Huntress

Goods and Services are still inflating. The rate of inflation has
declined, but that is not the same thing as inflation not existing.

Dan

What do you mean by "goods and services"? Do you mean CPI?

Here's total CPI:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes
========
Part of the problem is the English as she is spoke...

Disinflation is when the inflation rate is below the
projected/forecast rate but is still occurring. Deflation
is when the value of money actually increases.

It is well to remember the rule of 72 (or 76) which is a
quick and dirty way to see how long it takes for the
purchasing power of your savings to drop by one half at a
given rate of inflation. Basically you divide 76 by the
inflation rate, for example with a 5% inflation rate it will
require 14 years for your savings to lose 1/2 of their
purchasing power, so if you have not at least *DOUBLED* your
savings/investment after 14 years ==*AFTER TAXES*== with a
5% inflation rate you are losing purchasing power.


Historically, deflation seldom occurs, but is a
socio-economic disaster when it does. Note that
hyperinflation, as occurred in Weimar Germany, can be
considered as a special case of deflation. While the
purchasing power/value of the Deutsche Mark did indeed
disappear, the purchasing power of "hard currency" such as
the U.S. dollar and Swiss Franc soared within Germany.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

IMNSHO no one knows [they may think they know, which is not
the same thing] what the outcomes of the various financial
expedients, opportunism and experiments currently underway
will be as the current economic contraction/deleverging, if
not unique is very rare at this [global] scale.

What is certain is that the governments, central banks,
trans-national corporations, etc. are "playing with fire,"
and have failed to heed the wisdom of two enduring folk
tales: one about [not] killing the goose that laid the
golden eggs; and the other about the sorcerer's apprentice
who evoked forces he did not understand and could not
control.


-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

On Sat, 07 Aug 2010 19:24:55 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:
snip
What is certain is that the governments, central banks,
trans-national corporations, etc. are "playing with fire,"
and have failed to heed the wisdom of two enduring folk
tales: one about [not] killing the goose that laid the
golden eggs; and the other about the sorcerer's apprentice
who evoked forces he did not understand and could not
control.
=======
I just received an email asking for an example of "evoking
forces they do not understand and cannot control." One of
the more egregious recent examples was the 6 May stock
market "flash crash" caused by computerized high
volume/frequency "flash" trading. Because the causes [and
principals] have never been identified and corrective
actions take, it is sure to happen again.
see
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/a...traders/60829/

-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

The Dodd-Frank bill remaking American finance hasn't yet become law, but
corporate treasurers are already bracing for its impact. In the days surrounding
this fall's election—after the close of the September 30 quarter—expect a series
of warnings on liquidity from companies that had nothing to do with the credit
panic and are not even in the finance business.

It could be an eerie replay of ObamaCare, whose passage triggered a series of
charges by public companies facing higher retiree health-care costs. If
Dodd-Frank passes the Senate, U.S. companies could be forced to put up an
additional $1 trillion in collateral to continue using derivatives to reduce
their business risk.

....

http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ...388 9670.html




George, John, Ed,

If I wanted to put a baseball diamond on a field, I'd have to do environmental
studies, cost studies, economic impact studies, racial impact studies, etc -
up the kazu.

But out elected officials pass laws they admit they haven't even read because
it would take a team of lawyers a year to argue out the meanings.

And yet WE? The People?

Do what?
Can do what?
Should do what?

Will do what?

On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 07:29:07 -0500, cavelamb
wrote:


George, John, Ed,

If I wanted to put a baseball diamond on a field, I'd have to do environmental
studies, cost studies, economic impact studies, racial impact studies, etc -
up the kazu.

But out elected officials pass laws they admit they haven't even read because
it would take a team of lawyers a year to argue out the meanings.

And yet WE? The People?

Do what?
Can do what?
Should do what?

Will do what?


Great Cull.

Bulldoze the *******s into mass graves and be done with them.



"A conservative who doesn't believe? in God simply doesn't pray;
a godless liberal wants no one to pray. A conservative who doesn't
like guns doesn't buy one; a liberal gun-hater wants to disarm us all.
A gay conservative has sex his own way; a gay liberal requires us all
to watch and accept his perversion and have it taught to children.
A conservative who is offended by a radio show changes the station;
an offended liberal wants it banned, prosecuted and persecuted."
Bobby XD9

On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 11:14:39 -0700, Gunner Asch
wrote:

On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 07:29:07 -0500, cavelamb
wrote:


George, John, Ed,

If I wanted to put a baseball diamond on a field, I'd have to do environmental
studies, cost studies, economic impact studies, racial impact studies, etc -
up the kazu.

But out elected officials pass laws they admit they haven't even read because
it would take a team of lawyers a year to argue out the meanings.

And yet WE? The People?

Do what?
Can do what?
Should do what?

Will do what?


Great Cull.

Bulldoze the *******s into mass graves and be done with them.

==========
Unfortunately, not all problems have practicable
solutions...

The "final solution" [great cull] appears to assume some
sort of genetic or heredity cause, i.e. "bad seed."
Empirically, repeated expulsions, massacres, holocausts,
etc. appear to have accomplished nothing, and indeed the
socio-economic conditions appear to get worse, not better
after such activities. For example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_Genocide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsi...ns_from_Uganda
http://www.umd.umich.edu/dept/armeni.../genocide.html
http://balkansnet.org/ethnicl.html


While there may be some genetic factors, it appears that the
socio-cultural/economic environment in which the individual
develops and is embedded, and especially opportunity play a
far larger roll.

In any society there are always individuals that will take
advantage of any opportunity for their own "enrichment,"
where "enrichment" can be money, power or prestige,
individually or in any combination.

Things start to get out of hand when no consideration is
given to the effect(s) this scramble for individual
"enrichment" may have on other people or society as a whole.

There is yet a worse case when the people seeking personal
"enrichment" at any cost begin to combine and work in
cooperation, with unlimited opportunity for damage, for
example the municipal "leadership" of Bell, California.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lano...city-says.html
http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktl...,7947506.story

The foundational problem well may be that the U.S.
Constitution, and republican form of government it
prescribes, works very well as long as the large majority of
people are honest, even though they may have different
opinions on how certain things should be accomplished and
what the governmental priorities should be. As soon as
significant minority arises that does not understand the
need for the rule of law, and the need for responsible
personal behavior to avoid bringing the whole governmental
structure down, the Constitution becomes increasingly
non-operational as this group increases.

A tipping point is quickly reached where a republican form
of government is no longer operationally viable.
Historically this appears to have been a major cause for the
failure of the Roman Republic and rise of Imperial rule,
although in many cases the Roman republican forms, such as
the Senate, and social orders were maintained. It should be
noted that this "degeneration" appears to have resulted more
from the Roman successes than from their failures.

http://www.unrv.com/empire/early-roman-timeline.php
snip
Roman imperium, or the power of law and command, was fully
concentrated in the patrician class. The consuls were
elected from among the patricians, as were the quaestors,
praetors and censors. The ensuing class conflicts from the
domination of political power by one class over another, in
a virtual transfer of power from King to Senate, was called
"the struggle of the orders". In effect, it was simply the
recurring pattern of the patrician class attempting to hold
onto power, while the plebeians worked to rise to social and
political equality. The patricians, while mostly secure in
their wealth and noble foundation, were also unable to exist
without the plebeians. The Plebeian class not only produced
the grain and supplied the labor that maintained the Roman
economy; they also formed the recruiting basis as soldiers
for the Legions.
snip

http://www.unrv.com/roman-republic/f...n-republic.php
snip
Beginning with the Punic Wars and Roman conquest outside of
Italy, followed by massive importation of slaves, the face
of Roman life was changing far more rapidly than the
governing body could deal with. Political infighting was and
always would be a common trait in any system, but even the
greatest of Romans like Scipio Africanus, fell victim to the
whims of politicians. The social instability that resulted
from inequities in the class system gave way to rise of
demagogues like the brothers Gracchi. The use of the citizen
assemblies for popular agendas tore at the very fabric of
Senatorial power.

Men like Marius and Sulla, with their own personal agendas
and rivalries wreaked havoc in an already weakened
structure. Partisan politics of the conservative Optimate
Senators trying to keep power with the elite class, while
the tactics of the Populares, who looked to the lower
classes for support, divided the people and classes into
what seemed like warring factions. For nearly 100 years, the
climate was unpredictable at best, and brutally bloody at
worst.
snip
Additionally, massive and rapid expansion from Rome's
foundation as a fledgling city 700 years earlier until the
mid 1st century BC, created monumental holes in the
political and governing ability of the Senate. Periods of
stability were mixed in with those of near collapse while
powerful generals or inciters of the Roman mob jockeyed for
position.
snip
While tradition and some semblance of power would remain,
the foundation of government under a single figure was a
requirement to continue the advancement of the Empire. It
was Augustus who proved to be the one man great and powerful
enough to control the Senate, the mob and the Legions. Gaius
Julius Caesar Octavianus Augustus rose above all the great
Romans before him to outlast political opponents, reform a
corrupt government and stabilize a system in disarray. The
Fall of the Republic was inevitable, but fortunately for
Rome, the right man at the right time was there to step in
as the first Roman Emperor.
snip

http://www.unrv.com/roman-republic/c...conspiracy.php
snip
Regardless of the truth regarding Catiline's involvement in
various plots, social conditions outside of Rome were again
building a foundation for civil war. ==The great
indebtedness of the Italians and other provincials was
creating a situation ripe with potential disaster.==
snip



As the prolific writer Lord Acton observed "Every thing
secret degenerates, even the administration of justice;
nothing is safe that does not show how it can bear
discussion and publicity."

With the expansion of the Internet/Web there appears to be
no reason, other than inertia and self-interest, why all
governmental expenditures should not be posted on searchable
databases accessible by the average citizen.

Indeed, it can be argued that all governmental business
should be on-line with the rationale the long-term benefit
to society as a whole far outweighs the short-term benefits
of a right to privacy for a few.

Sunlight remains the best disinfectant, even [or
particularly] when it "stings." One example of a sun lamp
is http://wikileaks.org/ While they are now best known for
the Afghan War papers, they also detail how many of the
worlds governments attempt to subvert their own citizens.
For example
http://file.wikileaks.org/file/us-watson1-2010.txt


-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 23:14:26 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:


Great Cull.

Bulldoze the *******s into mass graves and be done with them.

==========
Unfortunately, not all problems have practicable
solutions...

The "final solution" [great cull] appears to assume some
sort of genetic or heredity cause, i.e. "bad seed."
Empirically, repeated expulsions, massacres, holocausts,
etc. appear to have accomplished nothing, and indeed the
socio-economic conditions appear to get worse, not better
after such activities. For example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_Genocide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsi...ns_from_Uganda
http://www.umd.umich.edu/dept/armeni.../genocide.html
http://balkansnet.org/ethnicl.html


But George...listen to every Leftwinger. Just because Communism has
universally failed all across the planet in every country that has tried
it...American leftwingers simply indicate THEY can make it work and are
trying hard to do impliment it.

So if its good enough for Leftwingers..its good enough for the People.

On a serious note however...the US has a foundation that has been
shattered, bulldozed and buried deeply by the Left.

By killing the *******s off..we can get back to digging out our roots
and getting back to the nation that our Founders started.

Gunner


"A conservative who doesn't believe? in God simply doesn't pray;
a godless liberal wants no one to pray. A conservative who doesn't
like guns doesn't buy one; a liberal gun-hater wants to disarm us all.
A gay conservative has sex his own way; a gay liberal requires us all
to watch and accept his perversion and have it taught to children.
A conservative who is offended by a radio show changes the station;
an offended liberal wants it banned, prosecuted and persecuted."
Bobby XD9