"Ed Huntress" wrote:


wrote in message
...
On Aug 7, 11:51 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


That may be the most cocked-up conclusion from a set of graphs ever
published. Virtually ALL of them show that inflation is declining -- in
fact, that we're headed for deflation. Yet they're screaming about
inflation.

Is that what they call doublethink? Or is that just someone gone over the
hill?

--
Ed Huntress

Goods and Services are still inflating. The rate of inflation has
declined, but that is not the same thing as inflation not existing.

Dan

What do you mean by "goods and services"? Do you mean CPI?

Here's total CPI:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

"Wes" wrote in message
...
"Ed Huntress" wrote:


wrote in message
...
On Aug 7, 11:51 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


That may be the most cocked-up conclusion from a set of graphs ever
published. Virtually ALL of them show that inflation is declining -- in
fact, that we're headed for deflation. Yet they're screaming about
inflation.

Is that what they call doublethink? Or is that just someone gone over
the
hill?

--
Ed Huntress

Goods and Services are still inflating. The rate of inflation has
declined, but that is not the same thing as inflation not existing.

Dan

What do you mean by "goods and services"? Do you mean CPI?

Here's total CPI:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help
square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

It's the same graph. I just set the range to 1 yr., so you could see what's
happening now.

It's an option (Range) that you can click on below your graph.

--
Ed Huntress

"Ed Huntress" wrote:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help
square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

It's the same graph. I just set the range to 1 yr., so you could see what's
happening now.

It's an option (Range) that you can click on below your graph.


But what consumer items does it include? Core inflation iirc excludes food fuel. That is
what I really want to know. Btw, it does show that since 1975 the slope of the curve has
increased except for recent times.

Wes

"Wes" wrote in message
...
"Ed Huntress" wrote:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help
square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes

It's the same graph. I just set the range to 1 yr., so you could see
what's
happening now.

It's an option (Range) that you can click on below your graph.


But what consumer items does it include? Core inflation iirc excludes
food fuel. That is
what I really want to know. Btw, it does show that since 1975 the slope
of the curve has
increased except for recent times.

As for what's included in CPI, Wikipedia may have a good line on it, or you
could go to the BLS website on the subject:

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/

They have lots of FAQs, etc.

The numbers you and I were looking at include fuel. The St. Louis Fed site
gives you many ways to look at it:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

CPI is one of the categories.

Yes, we've had pretty steady inflation for decades. But we were discussing
the current state of affairs. We have a typical situation in the midst of a
deep recession: inflation low enough that the bigger danger is deflation.

Deflation scares the **** out of financial regulators. Unlike inflation,
there's no sure way to get out of it, once it's started. So the Fed targets
a modest rate of inflation -- I think it's in the range of 1.5% to something
over 2% -- as the ideal.

When you have deflation, banks are in crisis. Wages and prices decline
(wages first, usually) and other bad things happen. Japan had a bout of it
over the past two decades. We had our own during the 1930s.

--
Ed Huntress

On Sat, 07 Aug 2010 18:51:20 -0400, Wes
wrote:

"Ed Huntress" wrote:


wrote in message
...
On Aug 7, 11:51 am, "Ed Huntress" wrote:


That may be the most cocked-up conclusion from a set of graphs ever
published. Virtually ALL of them show that inflation is declining -- in
fact, that we're headed for deflation. Yet they're screaming about
inflation.

Is that what they call doublethink? Or is that just someone gone over the
hill?

--
Ed Huntress

Goods and Services are still inflating. The rate of inflation has
declined, but that is not the same thing as inflation not existing.

Dan

What do you mean by "goods and services"? Do you mean CPI?

Here's total CPI:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...rt_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCSL&s[1][range]=1yr


I tried that link but couldn't figure out what it consists of. So help square this one
with your one.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL

Thanks,

Wes
========
Part of the problem is the English as she is spoke...

Disinflation is when the inflation rate is below the
projected/forecast rate but is still occurring. Deflation
is when the value of money actually increases.

It is well to remember the rule of 72 (or 76) which is a
quick and dirty way to see how long it takes for the
purchasing power of your savings to drop by one half at a
given rate of inflation. Basically you divide 76 by the
inflation rate, for example with a 5% inflation rate it will
require 14 years for your savings to lose 1/2 of their
purchasing power, so if you have not at least *DOUBLED* your
savings/investment after 14 years ==*AFTER TAXES*== with a
5% inflation rate you are losing purchasing power.


Historically, deflation seldom occurs, but is a
socio-economic disaster when it does. Note that
hyperinflation, as occurred in Weimar Germany, can be
considered as a special case of deflation. While the
purchasing power/value of the Deutsche Mark did indeed
disappear, the purchasing power of "hard currency" such as
the U.S. dollar and Swiss Franc soared within Germany.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

IMNSHO no one knows [they may think they know, which is not
the same thing] what the outcomes of the various financial
expedients, opportunism and experiments currently underway
will be as the current economic contraction/deleverging, if
not unique is very rare at this [global] scale.

What is certain is that the governments, central banks,
trans-national corporations, etc. are "playing with fire,"
and have failed to heed the wisdom of two enduring folk
tales: one about [not] killing the goose that laid the
golden eggs; and the other about the sorcerer's apprentice
who evoked forces he did not understand and could not
control.


-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

On Sat, 07 Aug 2010 19:24:55 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:
snip
What is certain is that the governments, central banks,
trans-national corporations, etc. are "playing with fire,"
and have failed to heed the wisdom of two enduring folk
tales: one about [not] killing the goose that laid the
golden eggs; and the other about the sorcerer's apprentice
who evoked forces he did not understand and could not
control.
=======
I just received an email asking for an example of "evoking
forces they do not understand and cannot control." One of
the more egregious recent examples was the 6 May stock
market "flash crash" caused by computerized high
volume/frequency "flash" trading. Because the causes [and
principals] have never been identified and corrective
actions take, it is sure to happen again.
see
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/a...traders/60829/

-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).