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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 08:10:03 -0700 (PDT), DerbyDad03
wrote:

On Jun 16, 10:17Â*am, Jules Richardson
wrote:
On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 17:27:32 -0700, wrote:
My 1990 Dodge caraven with 3.0 engine served me well for about 450,000
miles. It was sad when I finally replaced it.


My wife was just telling me yesterday how her mother used to have a Dodge
Caravan until the transmission failed. She got it fixed, then it failed
again. Then she replaced the whole vehicle... with another Dodge Caravan.
The transmission failed up on that one, too - at which point she gave up
and bought something else.

cheers

Jules


I've had Caravans and Voyagers, 4 total, early to mid-80's vintage.

They all had tranny issue's at one point or another.

GENERALLY the tranny problems (in the last 15 years) can be almost
eliminated if the fluid is changed often enough with the right fluid.
Once every 15000 miles, or maximum 2 years, is about right.
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On Jun 16, 8:01*pm, wrote:
On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 20:47:35 -0700 (PDT), Ron
wrote:



On Jun 15, 11:29*pm, Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 11:05*pm, aemeijers wrote:


Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 4:16 pm, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message


...
On Jun 15, 10:59 am, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


Tell your friend to stop being a moron for a day and get the belt & water
pump replaced.
Yeah, and why he's at it, he should also get the AC compressor and the
alternator replaced. (rolling eyes).


============


On what planet would the AC compressor make your **necessarily** car stop
running? *The word "necessarily" eliminates mentioning the one exceptional
condition under which it might happen, because that situation is avoidable
by operating a switch.


You obviously missed the point. No comment on the alternator? What
about the power steering pump...should he get that replaced also?


The whole concept of external vs. internal components hard for you to
grasp? You replace water pump with the rubber band timing belt because
the thing is apart anyway, and all you are paying for is the part. The
stuff hung off the engine is much less labor to change, other than the
evac/refill and pressure test on the A/C.


Please point out to me where the OP said the car in question has a
internal water pump driven by the timing belt, smartass.


Not ALL cars (including the 3 that I own) have an internal water pump,
Mr Know It All.


BTW, a LOT of "garages" use ****ty aftermarket parts that won't last
as long as the factory part anyway.


Case in point.......I had the right front wheel bearing replaced on my
Honda at 85,000 miles, now 10,000 miles later, it is already failing.


And that was at a chain tire store.


*I can almost guarantee the problem was not the quality of the
replacement part but the intelligence of the trained gorilla that
installed it. Chain tire stores are NOT the place to have mechanical
repairs performed.


It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time.
Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm
not gonna go to a dealership.
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On 06/16/2010 08:01 PM, wrote:
On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 20:47:35 -0700 (PDT),
wrote:

On Jun 15, 11:29 pm, wrote:
On Jun 15, 11:05 pm, wrote:



Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 4:16 pm,
wrote:
wrote in message

...
On Jun 15, 10:59 am,
wrote:

Tell your friend to stop being a moron for a day and get the belt& water
pump replaced.
Yeah, and why he's at it, he should also get the AC compressor and the
alternator replaced. (rolling eyes).

============

On what planet would the AC compressor make your **necessarily** car stop
running? The word "necessarily" eliminates mentioning the one exceptional
condition under which it might happen, because that situation is avoidable
by operating a switch.

You obviously missed the point. No comment on the alternator? What
about the power steering pump...should he get that replaced also?

The whole concept of external vs. internal components hard for you to
grasp? You replace water pump with the rubber band timing belt because
the thing is apart anyway, and all you are paying for is the part. The
stuff hung off the engine is much less labor to change, other than the
evac/refill and pressure test on the A/C.

Please point out to me where the OP said the car in question has a
internal water pump driven by the timing belt, smartass.

Not ALL cars (including the 3 that I own) have an internal water pump,
Mr Know It All.


BTW, a LOT of "garages" use ****ty aftermarket parts that won't last
as long as the factory part anyway.

Case in point.......I had the right front wheel bearing replaced on my
Honda at 85,000 miles, now 10,000 miles later, it is already failing.

And that was at a chain tire store.

I can almost guarantee the problem was not the quality of the
replacement part but the intelligence of the trained gorilla that
installed it. Chain tire stores are NOT the place to have mechanical
repairs performed.


Or just the roads on which the car is driven. I had a front wheel
bearing replaced on my last company car, it literally lasted three days
before the replacement started making noise. The noise started
immediately after hitting a monster pothole on an onramp; looked like an
asphalt patch, wasn't.

Fortunately, it was replaced shortly afterwards - I didn't want to have
to explain why I needed two new wheel bearings within a couple hundred
miles of each other...

nate

--
replace "roosters" with "cox" to reply.
http://members.cox.net/njnagel
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On Jun 16, 8:07*pm, Ron wrote:
On Jun 16, 8:01*pm, wrote:



On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 20:47:35 -0700 (PDT), Ron
wrote:


On Jun 15, 11:29*pm, Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 11:05*pm, aemeijers wrote:


Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 4:16 pm, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message


...
On Jun 15, 10:59 am, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


Tell your friend to stop being a moron for a day and get the belt & water
pump replaced.
Yeah, and why he's at it, he should also get the AC compressor and the
alternator replaced. (rolling eyes).


============


On what planet would the AC compressor make your **necessarily** car stop
running? *The word "necessarily" eliminates mentioning the one exceptional
condition under which it might happen, because that situation is avoidable
by operating a switch.


You obviously missed the point. No comment on the alternator? What
about the power steering pump...should he get that replaced also?


The whole concept of external vs. internal components hard for you to
grasp? You replace water pump with the rubber band timing belt because
the thing is apart anyway, and all you are paying for is the part. The
stuff hung off the engine is much less labor to change, other than the
evac/refill and pressure test on the A/C.


Please point out to me where the OP said the car in question has a
internal water pump driven by the timing belt, smartass.


Not ALL cars (including the 3 that I own) have an internal water pump,
Mr Know It All.


BTW, a LOT of "garages" use ****ty aftermarket parts that won't last
as long as the factory part anyway.


Case in point.......I had the right front wheel bearing replaced on my
Honda at 85,000 miles, now 10,000 miles later, it is already failing.


And that was at a chain tire store.


*I can almost guarantee the problem was not the quality of the
replacement part but the intelligence of the trained gorilla that
installed it. Chain tire stores are NOT the place to have mechanical
repairs performed.


It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time.
Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm
not gonna go to a dealership.


If it's anything like the Goodyear store near me, they replace front
end parts all the time, whether they're needed or not.

My wife and son both bought tires at the local Goodyear within a few
months of each other. They were both told that the ball joints were
too worn to do a front-end alignment. They were both told that they
needed the right *and* left ball joints replaced before the alignment
could be done.

After being quoted prices in the $500 range, they both went for a
second opinion - to different places.

My wife ended up needing one replaced, my son didn't need either one.

When they compared notes once they realized that the same thing had
happened to both of them, they found that they both told the same
thing, just about word for word. "On a scale of 1 to 5" was the
technique that Goodyear used, and the numbers they were told matched,
side for side. Coincidence? I think not.
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 17:07:42 -0700 (PDT), Ron
wrote:

On Jun 16, 8:01Â*pm, wrote:
On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 20:47:35 -0700 (PDT), Ron
wrote:



On Jun 15, 11:29Â*pm, Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 11:05Â*pm, aemeijers wrote:


Ron wrote:
On Jun 15, 4:16 pm, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message


...
On Jun 15, 10:59 am, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:


Tell your friend to stop being a moron for a day and get the belt & water
pump replaced.
Yeah, and why he's at it, he should also get the AC compressor and the
alternator replaced. (rolling eyes).


============


On what planet would the AC compressor make your **necessarily** car stop
running? Â*The word "necessarily" eliminates mentioning the one exceptional
condition under which it might happen, because that situation is avoidable
by operating a switch.


You obviously missed the point. No comment on the alternator? What
about the power steering pump...should he get that replaced also?


The whole concept of external vs. internal components hard for you to
grasp? You replace water pump with the rubber band timing belt because
the thing is apart anyway, and all you are paying for is the part. The
stuff hung off the engine is much less labor to change, other than the
evac/refill and pressure test on the A/C.


Please point out to me where the OP said the car in question has a
internal water pump driven by the timing belt, smartass.


Not ALL cars (including the 3 that I own) have an internal water pump,
Mr Know It All.


BTW, a LOT of "garages" use ****ty aftermarket parts that won't last
as long as the factory part anyway.


Case in point.......I had the right front wheel bearing replaced on my
Honda at 85,000 miles, now 10,000 miles later, it is already failing.


And that was at a chain tire store.


Â*I can almost guarantee the problem was not the quality of the
replacement part but the intelligence of the trained gorilla that
installed it. Chain tire stores are NOT the place to have mechanical
repairs performed.


It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time.
Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm
not gonna go to a dealership.

I've seen more "disasters" come out of tire shops like
Goodyear/Firestone etc over the years than I care to count. And a lot
more un-needed front end repairs, improper replacement of bearings etc
than you would ever believe.
MOST independents do better work - in many cases the tire shop
"mechanics" are not qualified - just like a lube shop.


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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

DerbyDad03 wrote in
:

On Jun 15, 7:38*pm, Tegger wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote in
news:6739e713-05c4-463b-a348-
:



Thoughts?


Just one. And it's a question. Well, two questions.
1) WHAT KIND OF CAR IS THIS?
2) WHAT ENGINE HAS IT GOT

Not all cars are the same. Not all engines are the same. Not all
years of the same car and/or engine are the same.

Leave out that info and all you'll get are possibly bogus guesses;
shots in the dark.




2004 Honda Odyssey
3.5L SOHC, 24-Valve, VTEC V6 engine

The engine info is an educated guess since AFAIK that's the only
engine the vehicle came with.




Are you sure about that 90K limit? I thought that by 2004 the OEM belt was
good for 105K/84mo.

Having said that, Honda builds a pretty big safety margin into their OEM
belts. I've seen the 90K ones go as much as 150K before breaking.

If you really want to push this, you're /probably/ OK until about 120/130K.
After that, it's a crapshoot, as is valve damage ($$$) when the belt does
finally slip/break.

So look at it this way:

Say you spend $600 to get the job done /right/, which means water pump,
tensioner and coolant as well as the belt, all with proper OEM parts. And
you do this at 90K. Now you hang on to the car until 150K. This means your
$600 is amortized over 60K miles. That's one cent per mile.

Now, say you wait until 120K to get the job done, but still get rid of the
car at 150K. $600 over 30K is: two cents per mile. And you're running the
risk of belt slippage/breakage, and the resultant risk of valve damage.
Plus the risk of being stranded at possibly a really inconvenient time.

I can tell you that you will almost certainly NOT make it to 150K on the
original timing belt, so you /are/ going to need to spend at /least/ $600
at some point unless you dump the vehicle at something well under 120K.

So, ultimately, your question involves pennies and dimes.

The Beach Boys saved their pennies and they saved their dimes for that 409,
but nickels and dimes aren't worth much these days.


--
Tegger
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?


"Ron" wrote

It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time.
Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm
not gonna go to a dealership.


I'd use them for an oil change, but nothing more technical than that. Many
try to sell you stuff you don't need. Some are good, many are not.

As for independents, you have to find a really good one. Some are great,
others are thieves using wrenches instead of a gun to stick you up. If you
find a good one, stick with him.

Agree on the dealer. Rare I'd take a car to one aside from warranty work.
Prices are usually the highest, but they usually have good mechanics if you
need something that is particular to the brand you are driving. My dealer,
though, does oil changes cheaper than anyone and they wash the car too. I'd
never let them to the so called xxx miles service though.



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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?


wrote
GENERALLY the tranny problems (in the last 15 years) can be almost
eliminated if the fluid is changed often enough with the right fluid.
Once every 15000 miles, or maximum 2 years, is about right.


Of all the cars I've owned, only one ever needed tranny work. It was the
only one I ever changed the fluid in too. Never again. No way a trans
should need a fluid change in 15000 miles.



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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

In article , Tegger wrote:

Say you spend $600 to get the job done /right/, which means water pump,
tensioner and coolant as well as the belt, all with proper OEM parts. And
you do this at 90K. Now you hang on to the car until 150K. This means your
$600 is amortized over 60K miles. That's one cent per mile.

Now, say you wait until 120K to get the job done, but still get rid of the
car at 150K. $600 over 30K is: two cents per mile.


Nonsense. You're still driving the same 60K miles between 90K and 150K, and
you're still spending the same amount on the timing belt repair. The only
difference is when you buy the belt. Either way, you're amortizing the same
cost over the same mileage, and get the same cost per mile.
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On Jun 16, 10:22*pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:
"Ron" wrote



It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time.
Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm
not gonna go to a dealership.


I'd use them for an oil change, but nothing more technical than that. Many
try to sell you stuff you don't need. * Some are good, many are not.


Those guys work on front ends/suspensions everyday. I've never had a
problem with the place that I use. That is why I'm saying it was a
faulty aftermarket wheel bearing and not the installer. It's a sealed
bearing that has to be pressed into placed. It's not that big of a
deal for someone that does it everyday. I would have replaced it
myself if I had the tools.

And, they ALL try to sell you stuff. They always come out with a list
of things that need to be replaced. Now, since I have been working on
my own cars for over 30 yrs now, I KNOW what NEEDS to be replaced and
what doesn't for the most part..

It's unfortunate for those that don't know what needs to be replaced
and what does and just takes their word for it. Or, for those that
can't do simple replacements themselves...like fan belts, hoses, brake
pads, etc.

I was at a tire store just a few months ago and the guy comes out the
the customer and tells her she needs new wiper blades. Don't remember
what the cost was, but it was outrageous. I told the women to go to
Autozone, buy the blades and they would install them free of charge.


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On Jun 16, 10:54*pm, Smitty Two wrote:
In article ,
(Doug Miller) wrote:

In article , Tegger
wrote:


Say you spend $600 to get the job done /right/, which means water pump,
tensioner and coolant as well as the belt, all with proper OEM parts. And
you do this at 90K. Now you hang on to the car until 150K. This means your
$600 *is amortized over 60K miles. That's one cent per mile.


Now, say you wait until 120K to get the job done, but still get rid of the
car at 150K. $600 over 30K is: two cents per mile.


Nonsense. You're still driving the same 60K miles between 90K and 150K, and
you're still spending the same amount on the timing belt repair. The only
difference is when you buy the belt. Either way, you're amortizing the same
cost over the same mileage, and get the same cost per mile.


Uh, I think that was Tegger's point, Doug.


And Tegger knows his stuff, at least when it comes to Hondas.

BTW, Tegger, what happened to your website that used to be in your
sig? Not working on cars anymore?
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?


First, sorry I lost track of who was who and thought your post stating
that you left out that info on purpose was speculation by someone
else.

On Jun 16, 3:41 pm, DerbyDad03 wrote:
Do you not think that the mechanics (plural) who said "wait" know
whether or not the "failed belt causes damage or just leaves him
stranded"?


I would hope they would know that.

Assuming they took that into consideration and still said "wait",
doesn't that bring it back to the "decision process" independent of
the vehicle?


I don't follow your logic at all. The vehicle IS part of the decision
process. Maybe you should ask THEM why they came to the conclusion
they did. If they don't say anything about what will happen to the
engine if the belt fails (or say nothing will happen), continue
looking until you find someone who does. Maybe they just believe that
there is very little chance of it failing, which is the only way I can
imagine the type of engine not figuring in.

Alternatively, we still might be "failing to communicate" and by
"independent of vehicle" you really do mean that you are asking for a
decision process that includes a step like: "if the vehicle has an
interference engine do A, otherwise do B".


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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?


"DerbyDad03" wrote in message
...
On Jun 16, 9:45 pm, Tegger wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote
:



On Jun 15, 7:38 pm, Tegger wrote:
DerbyDad03 wrote in
news:6739e713-05c4-463b-a348-
:


Thoughts?


Just one. And it's a question. Well, two questions.
1) WHAT KIND OF CAR IS THIS?
2) WHAT ENGINE HAS IT GOT


Not all cars are the same. Not all engines are the same. Not all
years of the same car and/or engine are the same.


Leave out that info and all you'll get are possibly bogus guesses;
shots in the dark.


2004 Honda Odyssey
3.5L SOHC, 24-Valve, VTEC V6 engine


The engine info is an educated guess since AFAIK that's the only
engine the vehicle came with.


Are you sure about that 90K limit? I thought that by 2004 the OEM belt
was
good for 105K/84mo.

Having said that, Honda builds a pretty big safety margin into their OEM
belts. I've seen the 90K ones go as much as 150K before breaking.

If you really want to push this, you're /probably/ OK until about
120/130K.
After that, it's a crapshoot, as is valve damage ($$$) when the belt does
finally slip/break.

So look at it this way:

Say you spend $600 to get the job done /right/, which means water pump,
tensioner and coolant as well as the belt, all with proper OEM parts. And
you do this at 90K. Now you hang on to the car until 150K. This means
your
$600 is amortized over 60K miles. That's one cent per mile.

Now, say you wait until 120K to get the job done, but still get rid of
the
car at 150K. $600 over 30K is: two cents per mile. And you're running the
risk of belt slippage/breakage, and the resultant risk of valve damage.
Plus the risk of being stranded at possibly a really inconvenient time.

I can tell you that you will almost certainly NOT make it to 150K on the
original timing belt, so you /are/ going to need to spend at /least/ $600
at some point unless you dump the vehicle at something well under 120K.

So, ultimately, your question involves pennies and dimes.

The Beach Boys saved their pennies and they saved their dimes for that
409,
but nickels and dimes aren't worth much these days.

--
Tegger


Are you sure about that 90K limit?

That's what the dealer told him. I don't know if he still has the
manual, but I can ask.

And for what's it's worth, your thoughts are the same as what I've
tried to say a few times in this thread - why wait?



It is an interference engine
http://www.gates.com/part_locator/in...cation_id=3598

http://www.gates.com/downloads/downl...older=brochure
The Gates manual says 105,000 miles.

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"Ed Pawlowski" wrote
Are you sure about that 90K limit?

That's what the dealer told him. I don't know if he still has the
manual, but I can ask.

And for what's it's worth, your thoughts are the same as what I've
tried to say a few times in this thread - why wait?



It is an interference engine

http://www.gates.com/part_locator/in...cation_id=3598

http://www.gates.com/downloads/download_common.cfm?file=428-1466_web.pdf&folder=brochure The Gates manual says 105,000 miles.I noticed after posting this, the kit also comes with a water pump. Thatanswers a dispute of a couple of earlier posters about it.


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"Ron" wrote in message
...
On Jun 16, 10:22 pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:


And, they ALL try to sell you stuff.

============

At least a dozen times in 20 years, my independent mechanic told me "You
don't need to do (whatever). Save your money." Or "Do that yourself - it's
crazy to pay me for it. Wait for spring when you can do it in your
driveway."

You've never gone to a good independent mechanic.


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Ron wrote in
:



BTW, Tegger, what happened to your website that used to be in your
sig? Not working on cars anymore?



It's in such need of update that I didn't think it apporpriate to advertise
it anymore. One day...


--
Tegger
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DerbyDad03 wrote in
:



Are you sure about that 90K limit?

That's what the dealer told him. I don't know if he still has the
manual, but I can ask.



If he doesn't, he can join Honda's Ownerlink site:
https://www.ahm-ownerlink.com/login.asp

From there he can get the /official/ maintenance schedules. These would be
/Honda's/ schedule, not the dealer's moneymaking attempts.



And for what's it's worth, your thoughts are the same as what I've
tried to say a few times in this thread - why wait?



Right. If you keep the car even to 150K, you're spending money for the belt
change /anyway/. So better to get it done before the probability of
breakage increases.

That engine is an "interference" design. This means that, should the belt
slip or break, there is a chance valve(s) and pistons could collide. If
that happens, you're about doubling the cost of the belt change.


--
Tegger
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"Ed Pawlowski" wrote in
:


"Ed Pawlowski" wrote
Are you sure about that 90K limit?

That's what the dealer told him. I don't know if he still has the
manual, but I can ask.

And for what's it's worth, your thoughts are the same as what I've
tried to say a few times in this thread - why wait?



It is an interference engine

http://www.gates.com/part_locator/in...cation_id=3598

http://www.gates.com/downloads/downl...428-1466_web.p
df&folder=brochure The Gates manual says 105,000 miles.I noticed
after posting this, the kit also comes with a water pump.
Thatanswers a dispute of a couple of earlier posters about it.



I strongly advise against using aftermarket timing belts or water pumps on
any Honda or Toyota. Neither has the durability of genuine OEM.

But then if all you're expecting is to get another 40-50K or so before you
get rid of the car, go ahead and use aftermarket. Let the new owner deal
with any early failures.


--
Tegger


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In article , "JoeSpareBedroom" wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message
...
On Jun 16, 10:22 pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:


And, they ALL try to sell you stuff.

============

At least a dozen times in 20 years, my independent mechanic told me "You
don't need to do (whatever). Save your money." Or "Do that yourself - it's
crazy to pay me for it. Wait for spring when you can do it in your
driveway."

You've never gone to a good independent mechanic.


And not all the tire-store mechs are dishonest or incompetent, either. At my
first job, my office was right across the street from a B.F.Goodrich store.
Took my wife's car in there, after she'd gotten some outrageous repair
estimates at the Firestone across the street from where *she* worked -- they
wanted to replace almost the entire front end on her car, when the only real
problem was worn-out lower ball joints. Changed out the LBJs myself, then took
the car to Goodrich for an alignment. Told the guy at Goodrich what Firestone
had told my wife; he said, quote, Aw, hell, there ain't nothin' wrong with
none of that s**t!
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

"Doug Miller" wrote in message
...
In article , "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message
...
On Jun 16, 10:22 pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:


And, they ALL try to sell you stuff.

============

At least a dozen times in 20 years, my independent mechanic told me "You
don't need to do (whatever). Save your money." Or "Do that yourself - it's
crazy to pay me for it. Wait for spring when you can do it in your
driveway."

You've never gone to a good independent mechanic.


And not all the tire-store mechs are dishonest or incompetent, either. At
my
first job, my office was right across the street from a B.F.Goodrich
store.
Took my wife's car in there, after she'd gotten some outrageous repair
estimates at the Firestone across the street from where *she* worked --
they
wanted to replace almost the entire front end on her car, when the only
real
problem was worn-out lower ball joints. Changed out the LBJs myself, then
took
the car to Goodrich for an alignment. Told the guy at Goodrich what
Firestone
had told my wife; he said, quote, Aw, hell, there ain't nothin' wrong with
none of that s**t!



And then there's this scheme....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIfidE7zpxU


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On Jun 15, 9:48*am, DerbyDad03 wrote:
This question is about the decision process involved with replacing
the timing belt in a vehicle "now" or "later".

Let's not confuse the issue with cost or voiding warranties, etc.
Let's assume there is no warranty to deal with and that the cash is
readily available, both now and later.

Here's the situation a friend and I were discussing the other day:

The manual - and therefore the dealer - says the timing belt on his
vehicle should be replaced at 90K, which is right where he's at.

He called around to various repair shops for a price and multiple
places told him "I've never seen a timing belt go on that vehicle
before 110K. The dealers just want their money early. There's no need
to replace it at 90K." He was even able to "verify" that opinion on
the web.

OK, so let's say that you are planning to keep the vehicle for the
foreseeable future, probably well beyond 110K. That means that you
will need to replace the timing belt, probably in about a year, to be
safe.

So here's what I was thinking:

There's a pretty slim chance that you'll keep the vehicle for the full
life of the second timing belt. That would put you in the 220K range.
Even if you replaced it at 90K and it really will last 110K, that's
still pushing 200K.

Why would you wait until next year and not replace it at 90K? Even at
the dealer's "accelerated" schedule, you're good until 180K, by which
time you'll probably have gotten rid of the car, so why not be *extra*
cautious and replace it now?

Thoughts?


I've made this decision with just about every possible conclusion,
drive most of my cars ~150K miles, and I think it all depends on your
tolerance for risk, whether you can get by without your car, and
whether the car gets driven anywhere or by anyone that would make
being stranded a major issue.

High tolerance for risk, can get by without car, stranding not a
problem = Never replace it. If it goes (many never do), deal with
inconvenience, expense and/or stranding at that time (factor in
whether you would keep the car if it sucked a valve and whether your
model would).

High tolerance for risk, can get by for a little while, stranding not
too significant a problem = Push the schedule.

Low tolerance, need car reliably, and/or stranding a major issue = Do
it according to schedule.

My results: 33 cars so far (took me awhile to count!), several "true
American" makes, two German, two Japanese (American made), several so-
called American made multinationally. Mostly bought used, four
purchased new.

1 German, bought used, had valve/piston collision when the belt went
at less than 100,000 miles. Sold the car as-is.
1 American, bought new, dumped me WAY out in the country, but no
collateral damage. Less than 100K miles. Fixed.
1 Japanese replaced according to schedule, no further issues.

Balance = Belt/chain never broke while I owned the car. Of the
balance, all but three were driven more than 100,000, most approached
150,000, three were driven more than 200,000 miles but not by much,
one was driven almost 300,000 miles. At least six of these were from
an era when a timing chain would most likely have been used, so
possibly they should be removed from the equation (such as it is).
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On Jun 17, 3:23*am, Larry Fishel wrote:
First, sorry I lost track of who was who and thought your post stating
that you left out that info on purpose was speculation by someone
else.

On Jun 16, 3:41 pm, DerbyDad03 wrote:

Do you not think that the mechanics (plural) who said "wait" know
whether or not the "failed belt causes damage or just leaves him
stranded"?


I would hope they would know that.

Assuming they took that into consideration and still said "wait",
doesn't that bring it back to the "decision process" independent of
the vehicle?


I don't follow your logic at all. The vehicle IS part of the decision
process. Maybe you should ask THEM why they came to the conclusion
they did. If they don't say anything about what will happen to the
engine if the belt fails (or say nothing will happen), continue
looking until you find someone who does. Maybe they just believe that
there is very little chance of it failing, which is the only way I can
imagine the type of engine not figuring in.

Alternatively, we still might be "failing to communicate" and by
"independent of vehicle" you really do mean that you are asking for a
decision process that includes a step like: "if the vehicle has an
interference engine do A, otherwise do B".


"I don't follow your logic at all."

Completely understandable! I'll try to explain what I meant.

I was trying to say that the mechanics did take the vehicle type into
consideration and came to the conclusion that it's OK to wait, based
strictly on how long they've seen the belts last.

But from the consumer's standpoint, I don't think waiting to replace a
belt at 110K if you aren't planning on keeping the vehicle to 220K
makes sense. If the odds are that you'll get rid of vehicle somewhere
between 110K and 180K, you'll need a belt anyway, so why put yourself
at risk? And I mean any level of risk, stranded or destroyed engine.
There's no need for it.

In that respect, I don't think "interference" enters into the
decision, since, even if you believe the mechanic's time frame, you'd
never enter the "danger zone" any way because you'd change the belt
before 100K anyway.

I'm not sure if that makes any more sense, but I tried!


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On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 22:22:59 -0400, "Ed Pawlowski"
wrote:


"Ron" wrote

It was at a Goodyear and they replace front end parts all the time.
Much rather go there than to some independent mechanic...and no, I'm
not gonna go to a dealership.


I'd use them for an oil change, but nothing more technical than that. Many
try to sell you stuff you don't need. Some are good, many are not.


After they have cross-threaded the filter, stripped the drain plug,
blown the crap out of the ball-joint seals with the pressure grease
gun, rounded off the corners of the differential drainplug, drained
the transaxle instead of the engine oil-pan and overfilled the engine
by 4 quarts because of it (and left the transaxle empty), put power
steering fluid in the coolant overflow, or antifreeze in the power
steering (or both), you won't use the trained monkeys even for your
next oil change.

I've seen all of the above, and a whole lot more!!!!
As for independents, you have to find a really good one. Some are great,
others are thieves using wrenches instead of a gun to stick you up. If you
find a good one, stick with him.

Agree on the dealer. Rare I'd take a car to one aside from warranty work.
Prices are usually the highest, but they usually have good mechanics if you
need something that is particular to the brand you are driving. My dealer,
though, does oil changes cheaper than anyone and they wash the car too. I'd
never let them to the so called xxx miles service though.

When I was service manager at the Toyota dealership in a former life,
there were not many independents - and precious few chain shops that
could service your Toyota for much less than our shop would do it -
and we had all the right parts in stock, all the latest specifications
and service bulletins, and the factory manuals and training to boot.

There was a reason we had a retention rate of over 100% - meaning we
serviced MORE cars than we sold, based on 3 year numbers.


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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

In article ,
(Doug Miller) wrote:

In article
, Smitty
Two wrote:
In article ,
(Doug Miller) wrote:

In article , Tegger
wrote:

Say you spend $600 to get the job done /right/, which means water pump,
tensioner and coolant as well as the belt, all with proper OEM parts. And
you do this at 90K. Now you hang on to the car until 150K. This means
your
$600 is amortized over 60K miles. That's one cent per mile.

Now, say you wait until 120K to get the job done, but still get rid of
the
car at 150K. $600 over 30K is: two cents per mile.

Nonsense. You're still driving the same 60K miles between 90K and 150K,
and
you're still spending the same amount on the timing belt repair. The only
difference is when you buy the belt. Either way, you're amortizing the
same
cost over the same mileage, and get the same cost per mile.


Uh, I think that was Tegger's point, Doug.


Uh, I think not, considering that he explicitly claimed that the cost per
mile
to replace it later was double the the cost per mile to replace it now.

What part of "one cent per mile ... two cents per mile" did you find
confusing?


I found no part of it confusing. But then, I read it in context:

Premise: You'll save money by waiting.

Tegger's argument AIUI: No, you won't. You'll spend $600 to either:

1. Do the job now, and pay an amortized cost of .01 per mile for
60,000 miles.

OR

2. Wait, and pay an amortized cost of .02 per mile for 30,000 miles.

THERFORE, waiting doesn't save you a damn thing, and increases the
chance that the belt will fail while in service.
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On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 22:26:05 -0400, "Ed Pawlowski"
wrote:


wrote
GENERALLY the tranny problems (in the last 15 years) can be almost
eliminated if the fluid is changed often enough with the right fluid.
Once every 15000 miles, or maximum 2 years, is about right.


Of all the cars I've owned, only one ever needed tranny work. It was the
only one I ever changed the fluid in too. Never again. No way a trans
should need a fluid change in 15000 miles.


If you are driving a Chrysler and you doi NOT change the fluid, it's
your funeral. Leaving the old fluid until you have a problem
GUARANTEES it will fail just after you change the fluid - as does
using the wrong fluid.
250,000 miles on a Chrysler automatic is NOT out of reach, or even out
of the ordinary, if it is "properly" serviced.
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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 12:32:33 +0000 (UTC), Tegger
wrote:

DerbyDad03 wrote in
:



Are you sure about that 90K limit?

That's what the dealer told him. I don't know if he still has the
manual, but I can ask.



If he doesn't, he can join Honda's Ownerlink site:
https://www.ahm-ownerlink.com/login.asp

From there he can get the /official/ maintenance schedules. These would be
/Honda's/ schedule, not the dealer's moneymaking attempts.



And for what's it's worth, your thoughts are the same as what I've
tried to say a few times in this thread - why wait?



Right. If you keep the car even to 150K, you're spending money for the belt
change /anyway/. So better to get it done before the probability of
breakage increases.

That engine is an "interference" design. This means that, should the belt
slip or break, there is a chance valve(s) and pistons could collide. If
that happens, you're about doubling the cost of the belt change.


Double won't even come CLOSE. Much more like 5 times.
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On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 12:37:18 +0000 (UTC), Tegger
wrote:

"Ed Pawlowski" wrote in
:


"Ed Pawlowski" wrote
Are you sure about that 90K limit?

That's what the dealer told him. I don't know if he still has the
manual, but I can ask.

And for what's it's worth, your thoughts are the same as what I've
tried to say a few times in this thread - why wait?


It is an interference engine

http://www.gates.com/part_locator/in...cation_id=3598

http://www.gates.com/downloads/downl...428-1466_web.p
df&folder=brochure The Gates manual says 105,000 miles.I noticed
after posting this, the kit also comes with a water pump.
Thatanswers a dispute of a couple of earlier posters about it.



I strongly advise against using aftermarket timing belts or water pumps on
any Honda or Toyota. Neither has the durability of genuine OEM.

But then if all you're expecting is to get another 40-50K or so before you
get rid of the car, go ahead and use aftermarket. Let the new owner deal
with any early failures.

I'd dissagree. High end aftermarket is as good as, or better than OEM
in MANY cases. Just don't buy the aftermarket stuff based on price.

"If you want first quality oats, you need to be willing to pay first
quality price. If you are willing to settle for oats that have already
been through the horse, they DO come a bit cheaper"


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Default OT - Decision Process: Replace Timing Belt Now or Wait?

In article , Smitty Two wrote:
In article ,
(Doug Miller) wrote:

In article
, Smitty
Two wrote:
In article ,
(Doug Miller) wrote:

In article , Tegger
wrote:

Say you spend $600 to get the job done /right/, which means water pump,
tensioner and coolant as well as the belt, all with proper OEM parts. And


you do this at 90K. Now you hang on to the car until 150K. This means
your
$600 is amortized over 60K miles. That's one cent per mile.

Now, say you wait until 120K to get the job done, but still get rid of
the
car at 150K. $600 over 30K is: two cents per mile.

Nonsense. You're still driving the same 60K miles between 90K and 150K,
and
you're still spending the same amount on the timing belt repair. The only
difference is when you buy the belt. Either way, you're amortizing the
same
cost over the same mileage, and get the same cost per mile.

Uh, I think that was Tegger's point, Doug.


Uh, I think not, considering that he explicitly claimed that the cost per
mile
to replace it later was double the the cost per mile to replace it now.

What part of "one cent per mile ... two cents per mile" did you find
confusing?


I found no part of it confusing. But then, I read it in context:

Premise: You'll save money by waiting.

Tegger's argument AIUI: No, you won't.


I understand that. And that's true: you won't save money by waiting.

You'll spend $600 to either:

1. Do the job now, and pay an amortized cost of .01 per mile for
60,000 miles.

OR

2. Wait, and pay an amortized cost of .02 per mile for 30,000 miles.


You and he both fail to understand that *that* is false: the amortized cost is
the same, because the car is driven 60K miles and thus the cost is amortized
over 60K miles, regardless of when the belt is purchased.

THERFORE, waiting doesn't save you a damn thing, and increases the
chance that the belt will fail while in service.


And that's true.
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On Jun 17, 7:28*am, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message

...
On Jun 16, 10:22 pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:

And, they ALL try to sell you stuff.

============

At least a dozen times in 20 years, my independent mechanic told me "You
don't need to do (whatever). Save your money." Or "Do that yourself - it's
crazy to pay me for it. Wait for spring when you can do it in your
driveway."

You've never gone to a good independent mechanic.


Really Kreskin? We were talking about tire stores not independent
mechanics.
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On Jun 17, 2:24*pm, Smitty Two wrote:
In article ,
(Doug Miller) wrote:

You and he both fail to understand that *that* is false: the amortized cost
is
the same, because the car is driven 60K miles and thus the cost is amortized
over 60K miles, regardless of when the belt is purchased.


Argghhh. We all agree on what matters, it's just a semantics
disagreement. I'm sorry, but I won't concede my position on that. You're
only USING the new belt for 30,000 miles, so you can only amortize its
cost over 30,000 miles. If you change the belt at 120k and sell the car
at 150k, you paid .02 per mile for the use of the belt.

IOW, I perfectly well understand your logic, but I absolutely disagree
with it.


When should I admit that a small part of my reason for posting this
question was to see what kind of discussion it would produce?

120+ posts, and most of them pretty much on topic.

Not bad!
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On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 13:49:40 GMT, (Doug Miller)
wrote:

In article , "JoeSpareBedroom" wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message
...
On Jun 16, 10:22 pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:


And, they ALL try to sell you stuff.

============

At least a dozen times in 20 years, my independent mechanic told me "You
don't need to do (whatever). Save your money." Or "Do that yourself - it's
crazy to pay me for it. Wait for spring when you can do it in your
driveway."

You've never gone to a good independent mechanic.


And not all the tire-store mechs are dishonest or incompetent, either. At my
first job, my office was right across the street from a B.F.Goodrich store.
Took my wife's car in there, after she'd gotten some outrageous repair
estimates at the Firestone across the street from where *she* worked -- they
wanted to replace almost the entire front end on her car, when the only real
problem was worn-out lower ball joints. Changed out the LBJs myself, then took
the car to Goodrich for an alignment. Told the guy at Goodrich what Firestone
had told my wife; he said, quote, Aw, hell, there ain't nothin' wrong with
none of that s**t!


I left my car at the local Goodyear dealer and told him that 4 of the
tires might need to be replaced. He called me on my cell phone and
said only one of them needed it.
--
Mark Lloyd
http://notstupid.us

"If a man would follow, today, the teachings of the Old Testament, he
would be a criminal. If he would follow strictly the teachings of the
New, he would be insane." -- Robert G. Ingersoll


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On Jun 17, 1:34*pm, wrote:
On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 22:26:05 -0400, "Ed Pawlowski"

wrote:

wrote
GENERALLY the tranny problems (in the last 15 years) can be almost
eliminated if the fluid is changed often enough with the right fluid.
Once every 15000 miles, or maximum 2 years, is about right.


Of all the cars I've owned, only one ever needed tranny work. *It was the
only one I ever changed the fluid in too. *Never again. *No way a trans
should need a fluid change in 15000 miles.


If you are driving a Chrysler and you doi NOT change the fluid, it's
your funeral. Leaving the old fluid until you have a problem
GUARANTEES it will fail just after you change the fluid - as does
using the wrong fluid.
250,000 miles on a Chrysler automatic is NOT out of reach, or even out
of the ordinary, if it is "properly" serviced.


On most Chrysler trannies, from what I hear, "properly serviced" means
servicing far more often than even the "severe service" schedule
published in the official documentation, however. (talking about FWD
here, not the old, better-built 727/904 etc.)

nate
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On Jun 17, 2:35*pm, Mark Lloyd wrote:
On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 13:49:40 GMT, (Doug Miller)
wrote:





In article , "JoeSpareBedroom" wrote:
"Ron" wrote in message
....
On Jun 16, 10:22 pm, "Ed Pawlowski" wrote:


And, they ALL try to sell you stuff.


============


At least a dozen times in 20 years, my independent mechanic told me "You
don't need to do (whatever). Save your money." Or "Do that yourself - it's
crazy to pay me for it. Wait for spring when you can do it in your
driveway."


You've never gone to a good independent mechanic.


And not all the tire-store mechs are dishonest or incompetent, either. At my
first job, my office was right across the street from a B.F.Goodrich store.
Took my wife's car in there, after she'd gotten some outrageous repair
estimates at the Firestone across the street from where *she* worked -- they
wanted to replace almost the entire front end on her car, when the only real
problem was worn-out lower ball joints. Changed out the LBJs myself, then took
the car to Goodrich for an alignment. Told the guy at Goodrich what Firestone
had told my wife; he said, quote, Aw, hell, there ain't nothin' wrong with
none of that s**t!


I left my car at the local Goodyear dealer and told him that 4 of the
tires might need to be replaced. He called me on my cell phone and
said only one of them needed it.
--
Mark Lloydhttp://notstupid.us

"If a man would follow, today, the teachings of the Old Testament, he
would be a criminal. If he would follow strictly the teachings of the
New, he would be insane." -- Robert G. Ingersoll- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


"...told him that 4 of the tires might need to be replaced."

How many tires did that car have?
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On 06/17/10 08:37 am, Tegger wrote:

I strongly advise against using aftermarket timing belts or water pumps on
any Honda or Toyota. Neither has the durability of genuine OEM.


And I have read reports that the Gates timing belt sold for the Chrysler
300M doesn't always even fit correctly.

Perce
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