"James Arthur" skrev i en meddelelse
...
On Feb 28, 1:33 pm, (Nico Coesel) wrote:
"Jim Thompson" wrote:

http://www.marke****ch.com/news/stor...7B40D68525%2DB...

Feb. 26, 2008

................................................. .................................................

As the broader market began to regain lost ground, crude prices for
April delivery gained 2.3% to a new high of $101.11 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing crude's last record of
$100.65 hit last week.

Some people think the imminent downfall of the US economy is going be
a much bigger problem. The mortgage crisis is just the beginning. I
sure hope the next president has more sense. China and other countries
have huge amounts of dollars.

Rumors of our demise have been greatly exaggerated. (with apologies
to Mark Twain)

If the dollar is sinking deeper, they
will eventually cut their loss and dump their dollars at any price.

Not likely. Old saying: "If you owe the bank $100k and can't pay,
you've got a problem. If you owe the bank $100M and can't pay, the
_bank_ has a problem."

Cheers,
James Arthur

It is happening right now. The dumping of USD is what is driving the boom in
commodities and gold: Chinese and Arabs discretely lightening up on the USD
and buying "things of value".

The EUR is not safe a safe buy either because the ECB should have increased
rates already and they haven't - people are betting that the ECB do not dare
to let the Euro rise too much above the USD and will lower rates too
possibly in June. If the ECB does the right thing by *not* cutting rates in
June it is "all over" for the USD.

On Sat, 8 Mar 2008 12:34:53 +0100, "Frithiof Andreas Jensen"
wrote:


"James Arthur" skrev i en meddelelse
...
On Feb 28, 1:33 pm, (Nico Coesel) wrote:
"Jim Thompson" wrote:

http://www.marke****ch.com/news/stor...7B40D68525%2DB...

Feb. 26, 2008

................................................. .................................................

As the broader market began to regain lost ground, crude prices for
April delivery gained 2.3% to a new high of $101.11 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange, surpassing crude's last record of
$100.65 hit last week.

Some people think the imminent downfall of the US economy is going be
a much bigger problem. The mortgage crisis is just the beginning. I
sure hope the next president has more sense. China and other countries
have huge amounts of dollars.

Rumors of our demise have been greatly exaggerated. (with apologies
to Mark Twain)

If the dollar is sinking deeper, they
will eventually cut their loss and dump their dollars at any price.

Not likely. Old saying: "If you owe the bank $100k and can't pay,
you've got a problem. If you owe the bank $100M and can't pay, the
_bank_ has a problem."

Cheers,
James Arthur

It is happening right now. The dumping of USD is what is driving the boom in
commodities and gold: Chinese and Arabs discretely lightening up on the USD
and buying "things of value".

The EUR is not safe a safe buy either because the ECB should have increased
rates already and they haven't - people are betting that the ECB do not dare
to let the Euro rise too much above the USD and will lower rates too
possibly in June. If the ECB does the right thing by *not* cutting rates in
June it is "all over" for the USD.



How long does "All over" last? This is mostly the usual market
psychology positive feedback nonsense, stupid money following smart
money. There's no fundamental reason for the Euro to keep climbing
against the dollar. This is just a bit of noise and ringing in the
system.

As far as I'm concerned, if a bunch of Arabs and Chinese enjoy buying
dollars when they're high, and selling them when they're low, why
should we interfere with their fun? We had similar fun with the
Japanese a while back, selling them buildings and golf courses for
gigabucks a pop and buying them back later for a fraction.

But should I raise my european pricing, and make more money now, or
keep it the same and swipe market share, which might be better in the
long term?

John

"John Larkin" skrev i en
meddelelse ...
On Sat, 8 Mar 2008 12:34:53 +0100, "Frithiof Andreas Jensen"
wrote:

How long does "All over" last?

Forever - Until a new fiat currency is created, which will eventually
implode too. Destruction through lack of confidence, fraud or oversupply of
money is part of the natural life cycle of currencies.

This is mostly the usual market
psychology positive feedback nonsense, stupid money following smart
money. There's no fundamental reason for the Euro to keep climbing
against the dollar. This is just a bit of noise and ringing in the
system.

Interest rates in EUR are higher than in USD. That's pretty fundamental. The
EUR will climb to at least the level where one gets the same returns - and
of course the EUR will continue higher as long as Bernanke is spamming the
world with US paper.

As far as I'm concerned, if a bunch of Arabs and Chinese enjoy buying
dollars when they're high, and selling them when they're low, why
should we interfere with their fun? We had similar fun with the
Japanese a while back, selling them buildings and golf courses for
gigabucks a pop and buying them back later for a fraction.

Eventually even people as stupid and inbred as the Chinese central bankers
and Arab "investors" obviously are will grow tired of that particular game
.... and who will then be the buyer of US denominated paper? Anyone *more*
stupid around?? Normally one runs out of stupid buyers on the end of an
upcycle - doing it on the downswing is not so good.

But should I raise my european pricing, and make more money now, or
keep it the same and swipe market share, which might be better in the
long term?

Does any of all that matter if all you happen to "produce" is rebranded
chink stuff and the Chinese decide to cut out the American middle man and
get paid directly to EUR? The native US manufacturers, you might be among
them, are doing Ok but they are too few to stem the bleeding!

John

On Mar 27, 3:28 am, "Frithiof Andreas Jensen"
[....]
Interest rates in EUR are higher than in USD. That's pretty fundamental. The
EUR will climb to at least the level where one gets the same returns - and
of course the EUR will continue higher as long as Bernanke is spamming the
world with US paper.

It isn't just Bernanke. The government is borrowing money to buy
bombs to drop in Iraq. At the end of the day, the US is left with the
debt and nothing to show for it. It would be a different matter if
the US was buying production equipment, infrastructure or even
education with the money. That would mean that there would be assets
to cover the debt so the paper would have a little more backing.

[....]

Eventually even people as stupid and inbred as the Chinese central bankers

I don't see the Chinese central bank as stupid. They have made the
best investments they could given the situation. China is running a
surplus.

On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 06:24:38 -0700 (PDT), MooseFET
wrote:

On Mar 27, 3:28 am, "Frithiof Andreas Jensen"
[....]
Interest rates in EUR are higher than in USD. That's pretty fundamental. The
EUR will climb to at least the level where one gets the same returns - and
of course the EUR will continue higher as long as Bernanke is spamming the
world with US paper.

It isn't just Bernanke. The government is borrowing money to buy
bombs to drop in Iraq. At the end of the day, the US is left with the
debt and nothing to show for it. It would be a different matter if
the US was buying production equipment, infrastructure or even
education with the money. That would mean that there would be assets
to cover the debt so the paper would have a little more backing.

[....]

Eventually even people as stupid and inbred as the Chinese central bankers

I don't see the Chinese central bank as stupid. They have made the
best investments they could given the situation. China is running a
surplus.


You should put "investment" in quotes- a T-bill denominated in USD
drops faster in value than the interest it returns.
Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany
--
"it's the network..." "The Journey is the reward"
Info for manufacturers: http://www.trexon.com
Embedded software/hardware/analog Info for designers: http://www.speff.com

On Mar 27, 7:25 am, Spehro Pefhany
wrote:
On Thu, 27 Mar 2008 06:24:38 -0700 (PDT), MooseFET



wrote:
On Mar 27, 3:28 am, "Frithiof Andreas Jensen"
[....]
Interest rates in EUR are higher than in USD. That's pretty fundamental. The
EUR will climb to at least the level where one gets the same returns - and
of course the EUR will continue higher as long as Bernanke is spamming the
world with US paper.

It isn't just Bernanke. The government is borrowing money to buy
bombs to drop in Iraq. At the end of the day, the US is left with the
debt and nothing to show for it. It would be a different matter if
the US was buying production equipment, infrastructure or even
education with the money. That would mean that there would be assets
to cover the debt so the paper would have a little more backing.

[....]

Eventually even people as stupid and inbred as the Chinese central bankers

I don't see the Chinese central bank as stupid. They have made the
best investments they could given the situation. China is running a
surplus.

You should put "investment" in quotes- a T-bill denominated in USD
drops faster in value than the interest it returns.

Yes, but they were still making the best bets they thought they
could. Making the US dependent on them, I'm sure they saw as a value
beyond the value of the T-bills. China is likely to make moves
counter to the US interest in africa etc and the US's ability to react
is now reduced.