On Mar 2, 1:25 pm, Richard Henry wrote:
On Mar 2, 10:03 am, MooseFET wrote:



On Feb 29, 11:03 am, Richard Henry wrote:

On Feb 27, 5:47 pm, "David L. Jones" wrote:

On Feb 28, 12:33 pm, "Jerry G." wrote:

It is very likely, the crude oil price per barrel may get up to about
$120 to $140 by the mid or end of the summer. The reasons are many.
This means that the price of fuel will most likely rise by at least
another 20%.

So why didn't the petrol price go up 700% since oil was $15 back in
1999?
As you say, the reasons are many, but one thing is for sure, petrol
prices have had very little in the way of linear correlation with oil
price.

Dave.

The popular price per barrel quoted in the news is the spot market
price, and ignores the oil refined within vertically-integrated
companies and oil delivered under long-term, fixed-price contracts.

The oil within a vertically integrated company is worth as much as the
price on the spot market because they have the option of refining it
or selling it raw. The spot market is a good but nervous indicator of
the price of oil. The long term contracts will all end some day and a
new contract be written at the new higher price. The trend is
smoothened by that effect but the average rate of increase is not
reduced.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The oil within a vertically integrated company is worth what it can be
sold for. Introducing large stocks into the open market will reduce
the spot price.

I don't think it really would or at least not by very much. If a
vertically integrated company sells its crude oil into the market, it
won't be refining it into finished products and selling those. Others
will be making that finished product from the crude oil instead. The
net effect won't be anything like putting new oil from a well onto the
market.


Long term contracts are set at a price point where both the buyer and
seller think they will make money over the term of the contract.

Yes and those predictions are based on the conditions at the time the
contract is made. The next batch of contracts will be written in a
very different environment.