It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew

On 5/14/2014 4:39 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew



It didn't make it on the news here.
Maybe the 6:30 National news.

--
Jeff

On 5/14/2014 5:30 PM, Mike Marlow wrote:
Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.


Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these things.
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta be running out
of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...


Ditto the well wishes Lew. But what planning has gone wrong that these
natural disasters are becoming such a danger?

Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.


Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these things.
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta be running out
of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...

--

-Mike-

On Wed, 14 May 2014 17:30:42 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet
wrote:

On 5/14/2014 5:30 PM, Mike Marlow wrote:
Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.


Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these things.
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta be running out
of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...


Ditto the well wishes Lew. But what planning has gone wrong that these
natural disasters are becoming such a danger?

Mother Nature uses fire to cleanse and renew forest land when there
are no humans to mess things up. Said pesky humans want to live
in/near the forest but don't want the work of clearing brush, etc and
heaven help anyone who suggests that they've built in a potentially
dangerous place.

Eventually, the scrub will be thick enough and dry enough that almost
anything can light a major fire. The winds that are pushing this one
come on a regular basis, so having them to help the fire isn't news -
except to those who never pay attention to anything but sports and
fashion.

Also remember that there's a shortage of water out that way and that
the number of fire hydrants in most wooded areas is few to none -
mostly none because it would cost too much to run the lines and those
pesky humans would complain about the pristine forest land being dug
up to install water mains.

I like the shade our trees provide, but I move several times my body
weight in leaves each year to keep from having a knee-deep fire
hazard. If you want to play, you gotta pay...

wrote:
On Wed, 14 May 2014 17:30:42 -0500, Leon lcb11211@swbelldotnet
wrote:

On 5/14/2014 5:30 PM, Mike Marlow wrote:
Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.


Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these
things. Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta
be running out of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...


Ditto the well wishes Lew. But what planning has gone wrong that
these natural disasters are becoming such a danger?

Mother Nature uses fire to cleanse and renew forest land when there
are no humans to mess things up. Said pesky humans want to live
in/near the forest but don't want the work of clearing brush, etc and
heaven help anyone who suggests that they've built in a potentially
dangerous place.

Eventually, the scrub will be thick enough and dry enough that almost
anything can light a major fire. The winds that are pushing this one
come on a regular basis, so having them to help the fire isn't news -
except to those who never pay attention to anything but sports and
fashion.

Also remember that there's a shortage of water out that way and that
the number of fire hydrants in most wooded areas is few to none -
mostly none because it would cost too much to run the lines and those
pesky humans would complain about the pristine forest land being dug
up to install water mains.

I like the shade our trees provide, but I move several times my body
weight in leaves each year to keep from having a knee-deep fire
hazard. If you want to play, you gotta pay...

I suspect you feel that what you had to say was either profound, or in some
other way meaningful. I don't...

--

-Mike-

30 homes lost......
firefighters are trying to contain it.
fire season is here on Calif.
john

"Lew Hodgett" wrote in message
eb.com...

It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew

jloomis pretended :
30 homes lost......
firefighters are trying to contain it.
fire season is here on Calif.
john

"Lew Hodgett" wrote in message
eb.com...

It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew

Made the 6:00 pm news in Eastern Australia where we have a lot of
experience of bush fires.

--
John G

On 5/14/2014 3:39 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.
....

Lost 150+ buildings, 90 or so of which were homes in Fritch, TX, area
Sunday from range fire. Out of population of probably on 2000 or so.

Haven't heard on livestock losses as yet...

--

On 5/14/2014 1:39 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew



Hello from Carlsbad, CA. It is now 6:20 am and there are nine fires
going in northern San Diego county. I used to live in Green Valley
Lake, CA at 7000 foot elevation in the San Bernardino mountains in
southern California. We were evacuated four times in ten years with no
damage to our home but then we took some precautions when building our
place: composition roof, stucco exterior, covered eaves, befriending the
local fire guys, etc. Most importantly, we had defensible space
surrounding the house: no bushes, no grasses (3/4 stone makes for a good
lawn), and no trees close by. The fire department knew all this and
marked us as a good place to save.

Since leaving GVL, they have had no fires. We had an epiphany: We have
met the problem and he is us (apologies to Walt Kelly). One of my
daughters wished us luck and told us NOT to move to their town. Our
condo is situated between two of the fires, neither of which is closer
than several miles.

Our problems have been covered 24/7 on local news (everything else shuts
down apparently) and made the BBC, PBS News Hour, and Al Jazeera America
service. On the whole, I would rather be here than in Philadelphia
(apologies to the legend of WC Fields).

The hottest part of the week is behind us; lower temps and higher
humidity coming up. Still the best of all possible... oh hell. See you
later.
mahalo,
jo4hn

"Mike Marlow" wrote:
I suspect you feel that what you had to say was either profound, or in some
other way meaningful. I don't...

--

-Mike-


It is impressive that you are flexible enough to have your foot in your mouth
and your head up your ass all at the same time.

http://chod.sk/a2200

Is no one on earth familiar with the solar cycles?

We are approaching the peak (some say it could remain another year or
so) of the solar sun-spot cycle. It is normally an 11 year cycle, but
sometimes it runs a bit over.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

Gee, wonder why it's so hot???




In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo
Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations
of Sunspots. Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich
Observatory in 1849 and earlier observations have been used to extend
the records back to 1610. The sunspot number is calculated by first
counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual
sunspots.
The "sunspot number" is then given by the sum of the number of
individual sunspots and ten times the number of groups. Since most
sunspot groups have, on average, about ten spots, this formula for
counting sunspots gives reliable numbers even when the observing
conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see. Monthly
averages (updated monthly) of the sunspot numbers (181 kb JPEG image),
(307 kb pdf-file), (62 kb text file) show that the number of sunspots
visible on the sun waxes and wanes with an approximate 11-year cycle.

(Note: there are actually at least two "official" sunspot numbers
reported. The International Sunspot Number is compiled by the Solar
Influences Data Analysis Center in Belgium. The NOAA sunspot number is
compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The
numbers tabulated in spot_num.txt are the monthly averages (SSN) and
standard deviation (DEV) derived from the International Sunspot Numbers)
The Maunder Minimum

Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of
inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the
Sun from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image). Although the
observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in
fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well
documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a
climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are
normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower
altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of
inactivity in the more distant past. The connection between solar
activity and terrestrial climate is an area of on-going research.

The Butterfly Diagram
bfly_recent.gif

Click on image for larger version.


Detailed observations of sunspots have been obtained by the Royal
Greenwich Observatory since 1874. These observations include information
on the sizes and positions of sunspots as well as their numbers. These
data show that sunspots do not appear at random over the surface of the
sun but are concentrated in two latitude bands on either side of the
equator. A butterfly diagram (142 kb GIF image) (184 kb pdf-file)
(updated monthly) showing the positions of the spots for each rotation
of the sun since May 1874 shows that these bands first form at
mid-latitudes, widen, and then move toward the equator as each cycle
progresses.

The Greenwich Sunspot Data

The Royal Greenwich Observatory data has been appended with data
obtained by the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network since 1977.
This newer data has been reformatted to conform to the older Greenwich
data and both are available in a local directory of ASCII files. Each
file contains records for a given year with individual records providing
information on the daily observations of active regions.

Sunspot Cycle Predictions
ssn_predict.gif (2208 bytes)

Click on image for larger version.


MSFC Solar Physics Branch members Wilson, Hathaway, and Reichmann have
studied the sunspot record for characteristic behavior that might help
in predicting future sunspot activity. Our current predictions of solar
activity for the next few years can be found at this link. Although
sunspots themselves produce only minor effects on solar emissions, the
magnetic activity that accompanies the sunspots can produce dramatic
changes in the ultraviolet and soft x-ray emission levels. These changes
over the solar cycle have important consequences for the Earth's upper
atmosphere.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/01mar_twinpeaks/

March 1, 2013: Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is
supposed to be the year of Solar Max, the peak of the 11-year sunspot
cycle. Yet 2013 has arrived and solar activity is relatively low.
Sunspot numbers are well below their values in 2011, and strong solar
flares have been infrequent for many months.

The quiet has led some observers to wonder if forecasters missed the
mark. Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center
has a different explanation:

"This is solar maximum," he suggests. "But it looks different from what
we expected because it is double peaked."

Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth
like a simple pendulum. At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time
with few sunspots and flares. At the other end, Solar Max brings high
sunspot numbers and solar storms. It’s a regular rhythm that repeats
every 11 years.

Reality, however, is more complicated. Astronomers have been counting
sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not
perfectly regular. For one thing, the back-and-forth swing in sunspot
counts can take anywhere from 10 to 13 years to complete; also, the
amplitude of the cycle varies. Some solar maxima are very weak, others
very strong.
Auroras Underfoot (signup)

Pesnell notes yet another complication: "The last two solar maxima,
around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks." Solar activity went
up, dipped, then resumed, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two
years.

The same thing could be happening now. Sunspot counts jumped in 2011,
dipped in 2012, and Pesnell expects them to rebound again in 2013: "I am
comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly
last into 2014," he predicts.

Another curiosity of the solar cycle is that the sun's hemispheres do
not always peak at the same time. In the current cycle, the south has
been lagging behind the north. The second peak, if it occurs, will
likely feature the southern hemisphere playing catch-up, with a surge in
activity south of the sun's equator.
Twin Peaks (shortfall, med)
Recent sunspot counts fall short of predictions. Credit: Dr. Tony
Philips & NOAA/SWPC [full plot]

Pesnell is a leading member of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction
Panel, a blue-ribbon group of solar physicists who assembled in 2006 and
2008 to forecast the next Solar Max. At the time, the sun was
experiencing its deepest minimum in nearly a hundred years. Sunspot
numbers were pegged near zero and x-ray flare activity flat-lined for
months at a time. Recognizing that deep minima are often followed by
weak maxima, and pulling together many other threads of predictive
evidence, the panel issued this statement:

"The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus. The panel
has decided that the next solar cycle (Cycle 24) will be below average
in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the date of
solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now
expected to occur in May 2013. Note, this is not a unanimous decision,
but a supermajority of the panel did agree."

Given the tepid state of solar activity in Feb. 2013, a maximum in May
now seems unlikely.

"We may be seeing what happens when you predict a single amplitude and
the Sun responds with a double peak," comments Pesnell.

Incidentally, Pesnell notes a similarity between Solar Cycle 24,
underway now, and Solar Cycle 14, which had a double-peak during the
first decade of the 20th century. If the two cycles are in fact twins,
“it would mean one peak in late 2013 and another in 2015.”

No one knows for sure what the sun will do next. It seems likely,
though, that the end of 2013 could be a lot livelier than the beginning.

One more time for the video crowd...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sASbVkK-p0w

On 5/15/2014 10:30 AM, woodchucker wrote:
On 5/15/2014 9:40 AM, jo4hn wrote:
On 5/14/2014 1:39 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew



Hello from Carlsbad, CA. It is now 6:20 am and there are nine fires
going in northern San Diego county. I used to live in Green Valley
Lake, CA at 7000 foot elevation in the San Bernardino mountains in
southern California. We were evacuated four times in ten years with no
damage to our home but then we took some precautions when building our
place: composition roof, stucco exterior, covered eaves, befriending the
local fire guys, etc. Most importantly, we had defensible space
surrounding the house: no bushes, no grasses (3/4 stone makes for a good
lawn), and no trees close by. The fire department knew all this and
marked us as a good place to save.

Since leaving GVL, they have had no fires. We had an epiphany: We have
met the problem and he is us (apologies to Walt Kelly). One of my
daughters wished us luck and told us NOT to move to their town. Our
condo is situated between two of the fires, neither of which is closer
than several miles.

Our problems have been covered 24/7 on local news (everything else shuts
down apparently) and made the BBC, PBS News Hour, and Al Jazeera America
service. On the whole, I would rather be here than in Philadelphia
(apologies to the legend of WC Fields).

The hottest part of the week is behind us; lower temps and higher
humidity coming up. Still the best of all possible... oh hell. See you
later.
mahalo,
jo4hn



I wish you all a slow and steady rain.

start off with 1/2 each day for 3 days, then a break, then 1" each day
for 3 or 4...

I'd like to invite you all to do an internet search for Indian Rain
Dances. It's about time you took matters into your own hands.

Start dancing. I assume many have been praying and that's not working.

Good luck. And try and stay out of the fire.




Good advice about the rain dances.
They ALWAYS work.
Because you don't stop dancing until it rains...

On 5/15/2014 9:40 AM, jo4hn wrote:
On 5/14/2014 1:39 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew



Hello from Carlsbad, CA. It is now 6:20 am and there are nine fires
going in northern San Diego county. I used to live in Green Valley
Lake, CA at 7000 foot elevation in the San Bernardino mountains in
southern California. We were evacuated four times in ten years with no
damage to our home but then we took some precautions when building our
place: composition roof, stucco exterior, covered eaves, befriending the
local fire guys, etc. Most importantly, we had defensible space
surrounding the house: no bushes, no grasses (3/4 stone makes for a good
lawn), and no trees close by. The fire department knew all this and
marked us as a good place to save.

Since leaving GVL, they have had no fires. We had an epiphany: We have
met the problem and he is us (apologies to Walt Kelly). One of my
daughters wished us luck and told us NOT to move to their town. Our
condo is situated between two of the fires, neither of which is closer
than several miles.

Our problems have been covered 24/7 on local news (everything else shuts
down apparently) and made the BBC, PBS News Hour, and Al Jazeera America
service. On the whole, I would rather be here than in Philadelphia
(apologies to the legend of WC Fields).

The hottest part of the week is behind us; lower temps and higher
humidity coming up. Still the best of all possible... oh hell. See you
later.
mahalo,
jo4hn



I wish you all a slow and steady rain.

start off with 1/2 each day for 3 days, then a break, then 1" each day
for 3 or 4...

I'd like to invite you all to do an internet search for Indian Rain
Dances. It's about time you took matters into your own hands.

Start dancing. I assume many have been praying and that's not working.

Good luck. And try and stay out of the fire.



--
Jeff

Jack Ryan wrote:
"Mike Marlow" wrote:
I suspect you feel that what you had to say was either profound, or
in some other way meaningful. I don't...

--

-Mike-


It is impressive that you are flexible enough to have your foot in
your mouth and your head up your ass all at the same time.

http://chod.sk/a2200

Oh - very cool. Maybe next time you can post something that is not
intuitively obvious, just for the benefit of venting your splean.

--

-Mike-

"Mike Marlow" wrote:

Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these
things. Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta
be running out of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...

---------------------------------------
Actually there are patches of chaparral that haven't burned in 50-75
years
which is a normal part of it's life cycle.

The old stuff burns, drops it's seeds and the process starts over.

Lew

On 5/15/2014 10:26 AM, Richard wrote:
On 5/15/2014 10:30 AM, woodchucker wrote:
....

I'd like to invite you all to do an internet search for Indian Rain
Dances. It's about time you took matters into your own hands.

Start dancing. I assume many have been praying and that's not working.

Good luck. And try and stay out of the fire.




Good advice about the rain dances.
They ALWAYS work.
Because you don't stop dancing until it rains...

The cowboy poet/comedian Baxter Black's line is something along "Timing
has a lot to do with the success of a rain dance."

--

Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these
things.
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta be
running out
of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...
-------------------------------------------------
"Leon" wrote:

Ditto the well wishes Lew. But what planning has gone wrong that
these natural disasters are becoming such a danger?
--------------------------------------------------
An acknowledgement that climate change is for real, is the first step.

Single digit relative humidity, triple digit temperatures and Santa
Ana winds
in excess of 30 MPH are conditions that are expected in September, not
May which is still spring time.

Extreme drought conditions for the past 3-5 years has the state
on red flag watch which normally would happen in the summer time.
(Late July at the earliest).

Take a look around the country.

Floods along the east coast.

Snow in Colorado.

A month ago, snow in Kansas, today the land is so dry they can't plant
corn.

An extreme winter that is just ending.

All these things illustrate a change in climate is taking place and
man is the
chief architect of these changes.

Notice I said "MAN".

Resolving this problem will require a world wide effort.

China & India along with the rest of the civilized world must get
involved.

Today, California is on year around fire watch. The lack of rain has
made this necessary.

Providing landscaping that is defensible is mandatory these days;
however, when you have a 50 ft high wall of flame being driven
by 50 MPH winds, you evacuate and live to fight another time.

HTH.

Lew

On 5/15/2014 6:40 AM, jo4hn wrote:


On 5/14/2014 1:39 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
It is 101F outside my window.

In Carlsbad, a beach front community halfway between
Los Angeles an San Diego and home to wrec members
is in trouble, so hopes that qualifies as on topic.

Serious wind driven brush fires, fueled by Santa Ana winds
(offshore) 20-30 MPH sustained with 45 MPH gusts has
closed both north and south sides of I-5, has set several
structures on fire, and evacuated 11,000 people.

The temperatures (100F) and the winds are making firefighting
efforts very difficult.

Many buildings have had to be left to burn since there has been
no way to fight the fire attacking them.

Lego land has been evacuated.

This one is going to make the 6:00 PM news.

Lew



Hello from Carlsbad, CA.  It is now 6:20 am and there are nine fires going in northern San Diego county.  I used to live in Green Valley Lake, CA at 7000 foot elevation in the San Bernardino mountains in southern California.  We were evacuated four times in ten years with no damage to our home but then we took some precautions when building our place: composition roof, stucco exterior, covered eaves, befriending the local fire guys, etc.  Most importantly, we had defensible space surrounding the house: no bushes, no grasses (3/4 stone makes for a good lawn), and no trees close by.  The fire department knew all this and marked us as a good place to save.

Since leaving GVL, they have had no fires.  We had an epiphany: We have met the problem and he is us (apologies to Walt Kelly).  One of my daughters wished us luck and told us NOT to move to their town.  Our condo is situated between two of the fires, neither of which is closer than several miles.

Our problems have been covered 24/7 on local news (everything else shuts down apparently) and made the BBC, PBS News Hour, and Al Jazeera America service.  On the whole, I would rather be here than in Philadelphia (apologies to the legend of WC Fields).

The hottest part of the week is behind us; lower temps and higher humidity coming up.  Still the best of all possible... oh hell.  See you later.
    mahalo,
    jo4hn

Girlfriend lives in Vista - today's major area is San Marcos.  I likened it to a donut, with her in the hole... have been fires all around her in the last couple of days, and the heat on top of it...  No problem where she's at, except for the air quality to go along with the heat.  No thanks.

Matt

Lew Hodgett wrote:

An acknowledgement that climate change is for real, is the first step.


I think some form of climate change is inarguable. What I'm not convinced
of is the source of that. Not to say I do not believe man has contributed
to it, but also, not to say that I believe man can really affect it. That's
the point that I think both sides still have a lot to argue about.

Single digit relative humidity, triple digit temperatures and Santa
Ana winds
in excess of 30 MPH are conditions that are expected in September, not
May which is still spring time.

Agreed - but the why behind that is what is less obvious.


Extreme drought conditions for the past 3-5 years has the state
on red flag watch which normally would happen in the summer time.
(Late July at the earliest).

Yes - but that's a reaction to current circumstances - it's not really a
part of the dialog about cause.


Take a look around the country.

Floods along the east coast.

Been that way for centuries.


Snow in Colorado.

Been that way for centuries.


A month ago, snow in Kansas, today the land is so dry they can't plant
corn.


Been that way for at least a long time. Dust bowl and all that.

An extreme winter that is just ending.

We had a lot of cold - a ton of cold... but beyond that we would not at all
call this winter an extreme winter. Snowfall was way down.


All these things illustrate a change in climate is taking place

It does seem inarguable that some kind of change is underway.

and man is the chief architect of these changes.

Not so sure on that point. There are knowledgable voices on both sides of
that discussion. I don't think we really know enough yet. I think people
in both camps are jumping too quickly to "prove" their points without really
having proof.


Resolving this problem will require a world wide effort.

Maybe - but what if man's contribution is not as significant as the most
alarmist voices would have us believe? Then any world wide effort is not
going to be very productive.


Today, California is on year around fire watch. The lack of rain has
made this necessary.

Yes... but some of that is a result of decisions made in CA. CA made what I
think are foolish decisions on how to allow or to deal with nature, in the
name of keeping things more "natural". Well - wild fires are natural.


Providing landscaping that is defensible is mandatory these days;
however, when you have a 50 ft high wall of flame being driven
by 50 MPH winds, you evacuate and live to fight another time.


Yes. Unfortunately, no matter who or what is responsible - like you say
that's one big wall of fire and there just ain't much you're going to do to
deter it.

--

-Mike-

On 5/15/2014 6:10 PM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
Hey Lew - we jab back and forth, but it's not good to hear of these
things.
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods. You guys gotta be
running out
of land to burn with those Santa Ana winds...
-------------------------------------------------
"Leon" wrote:

Ditto the well wishes Lew. But what planning has gone wrong that
these natural disasters are becoming such a danger?
--------------------------------------------------
An acknowledgement that climate change is for real, is the first step.

The problem with the climate change belief is that this is a repeat
pattern that started way before any one gave any notice. The climate
changes seasonally.

FWIW I believe that most of California has accepted the idea of climate
change and has pretty much put the state into a bad position financially
with no positive results. You can't fix mother nature because she is
not broken.

Perhaps if one did not build in a hot bed to begin with....



Single digit relative humidity, triple digit temperatures and Santa
Ana winds
in excess of 30 MPH are conditions that are expected in September, not
May which is still spring time.

It has been documented that clean air/skys over the oceans give more
fuel to tropical storms. Clean the air over once smog covered areas and
things dry out. The cleaning of the atmosphere is probably the root
cause of the wild fire problems. and drought.

Lew Hodgett wrote:

An acknowledgement that climate change is for real, is the first
step.
------------------------------------------
"Mike Marlow" wrote:

I think some form of climate change is inarguable. What I'm not
convinced of is the source of that. Not to say I do not believe man
has contributed to it, but also, not to say that I believe man can
really affect it. That's the point that I think both sides still
have a lot to argue about.
---------------------------------------------
The time for talk is over, the time for action is here.
---------------------------------------------
Single digit relative humidity, triple digit temperatures and Santa
Ana winds
in excess of 30 MPH are conditions that are expected in September,
not
May which is still spring time.
-------------------------------------------------
Agreed - but the why behind that is what is less obvious.
-----------------------------------------------------
Not any more, the data is in.
-------------------------------------------------
Extreme drought conditions for the past 3-5 years has the state
on red flag watch which normally would happen in the summer time.
(Late July at the earliest).
-------------------------------------------------
Yes - but that's a reaction to current circumstances - it's not
really a part of the dialog about cause.
--------------------------------------------------
Agreed, the event is as a result of conditions set in place;
however, the conditions put in place are a result of environmental
changes.

The weather events continue to happen but the location, magnitude
and timing of the event is changing.
-----------------------------------------------------
Take a look around the country.

Floods along the east coast.

Been that way for centuries.

Snow in Colorado.

Been that way for centuries.


A month ago, snow in Kansas, today the land is so dry they can't
plant
corn.


Been that way for at least a long time. Dust bowl and all that.

An extreme winter that is just ending.
---------------------------------------------------------
It's not that these events happened, it's the magnitude and timing
of how these events happened that is what were are talking about.

CHANGE is the operative word.
---------------------------------------------------------
We had a lot of cold - a ton of cold... but beyond that we would not
at all call this winter an extreme winter. Snowfall was way down.
---------------------------------------------------------
Which is definitely not typical of upstate NY.

Still remember driving the thruway with snow plow having pushed/blown
10'-15' drifts to clear the road.

What was it this year?
-----------------------------------------------------------
All these things illustrate a change in climate is taking place
-----------------------------------------------------------
It does seem inarguable that some kind of change is underway.
----------------------------------------------------------
and man is the chief architect of these changes.
----------------------------------------------------------
Not so sure on that point. There are knowledgable voices on both
sides of that discussion. I don't think we really know enough yet.
I think people in both camps are jumping too quickly to "prove"
their points without really having proof.
--------------------------------------------------------
Not any more. Read the last report just issued.

The people who signed off on it have no axe to grind.

Of course we still have the stooges bought and paid
for by the Koch brothers as well as the fossil fuel industry
lobbyists.

We are in this fight till the death and we simply can't allow
the Koch bros and their ilk to win regardless of how much
money they throw at it with their smear campaigns.
--------------------------------------------------------
Resolving this problem will require a world wide effort.
--------------------------------------------------------
Maybe - but what if man's contribution is not as significant as the
most alarmist voices would have us believe? Then any world wide
effort is not going to be very productive.
-------------------------------------------------------
Again, read the last report just issued.
--------------------------------------------------------

Today, California is on year around fire watch. The lack of rain
has
made this necessary.
--------------------------------------------------------
Yes... but some of that is a result of decisions made in CA. CA
made what I think are foolish decisions on how to allow or to deal
with nature, in the name of keeping things more "natural". Well -
wild fires are natural.
-------------------------------------------------
What in the hell are you talking about?
----------------------------------------------------
Providing landscaping that is defensible is mandatory these days;
however, when you have a 50 ft high wall of flame being driven
by 50 MPH winds, you evacuate and live to fight another time.
---------------------------------------------------
Yes. Unfortunately, no matter who or what is responsible - like you
say that's one big wall of fire and there just ain't much you're
going to do to deter it.
----------------------------------------------------
Haven't caught any updates this evening but a reported 10 fires
in San Diego county has an odor about it if it proves to be true.

Lew

On 5/16/2014 12:15 AM, Lew Hodgett wrote:
Lew Hodgett wrote:

An acknowledgement that climate change is for real, is the first
step.
------------------------------------------
"Mike Marlow" wrote:

I think some form of climate change is inarguable. What I'm not
convinced of is the source of that. Not to say I do not believe man
has contributed to it, but also, not to say that I believe man can
really affect it. That's the point that I think both sides still
have a lot to argue about.
---------------------------------------------
The time for talk is over, the time for action is here.
---------------------------------------------
Single digit relative humidity, triple digit temperatures and Santa
Ana winds
in excess of 30 MPH are conditions that are expected in September,
not
May which is still spring time.
-------------------------------------------------
Agreed - but the why behind that is what is less obvious.
-----------------------------------------------------
Not any more, the data is in.
-------------------------------------------------
Extreme drought conditions for the past 3-5 years has the state
on red flag watch which normally would happen in the summer time.
(Late July at the earliest).
-------------------------------------------------
Yes - but that's a reaction to current circumstances - it's not
really a part of the dialog about cause.
--------------------------------------------------
Agreed, the event is as a result of conditions set in place;
however, the conditions put in place are a result of environmental
changes.

The weather events continue to happen but the location, magnitude
and timing of the event is changing.
-----------------------------------------------------
Take a look around the country.

Floods along the east coast.

Been that way for centuries.

Snow in Colorado.

Been that way for centuries.


A month ago, snow in Kansas, today the land is so dry they can't
plant
corn.


Been that way for at least a long time. Dust bowl and all that.

An extreme winter that is just ending.
---------------------------------------------------------
It's not that these events happened, it's the magnitude and timing
of how these events happened that is what were are talking about.

CHANGE is the operative word.
---------------------------------------------------------
We had a lot of cold - a ton of cold... but beyond that we would not
at all call this winter an extreme winter. Snowfall was way down.
---------------------------------------------------------
Which is definitely not typical of upstate NY.

Still remember driving the thruway with snow plow having pushed/blown
10'-15' drifts to clear the road.

What was it this year?
-----------------------------------------------------------
All these things illustrate a change in climate is taking place
-----------------------------------------------------------
It does seem inarguable that some kind of change is underway.
----------------------------------------------------------
and man is the chief architect of these changes.
----------------------------------------------------------
Not so sure on that point. There are knowledgable voices on both
sides of that discussion. I don't think we really know enough yet.
I think people in both camps are jumping too quickly to "prove"
their points without really having proof.
--------------------------------------------------------
Not any more. Read the last report just issued.

The people who signed off on it have no axe to grind.

Of course we still have the stooges bought and paid
for by the Koch brothers as well as the fossil fuel industry
lobbyists.

We are in this fight till the death and we simply can't allow
the Koch bros and their ilk to win regardless of how much
money they throw at it with their smear campaigns.
--------------------------------------------------------
Resolving this problem will require a world wide effort.
--------------------------------------------------------
Maybe - but what if man's contribution is not as significant as the
most alarmist voices would have us believe? Then any world wide
effort is not going to be very productive.
-------------------------------------------------------
Again, read the last report just issued.
--------------------------------------------------------

Today, California is on year around fire watch. The lack of rain
has
made this necessary.
--------------------------------------------------------
Yes... but some of that is a result of decisions made in CA. CA
made what I think are foolish decisions on how to allow or to deal
with nature, in the name of keeping things more "natural". Well -
wild fires are natural.
-------------------------------------------------
What in the hell are you talking about?
----------------------------------------------------
Providing landscaping that is defensible is mandatory these days;
however, when you have a 50 ft high wall of flame being driven
by 50 MPH winds, you evacuate and live to fight another time.
---------------------------------------------------
Yes. Unfortunately, no matter who or what is responsible - like you
say that's one big wall of fire and there just ain't much you're
going to do to deter it.
----------------------------------------------------
Haven't caught any updates this evening but a reported 10 fires
in San Diego county has an odor about it if it proves to be true.

Lew



It's one of the things I agree with you on.
I do believe MAN created this mess.

I believed it b4 we even go to the warnings.

But this is a religious matter, you won't convince either side one way
or the other. So I stay out of it.

I don't believe the current solar is working. I think the panels create
more absorption and heat the planet, plus the energy to create them is
high too, so are the chemicals a problem. And when they go, they are
trash that no one wants to deal with.

Wind is another thing that has proven to have some effects on wind
currents..

Right now we don't have a good alternative. And I'm not sure we will for
a long time.

When I was growing up, all the houses had white asphalt tiles on the
roofs. Today, mostly black. We should start there. I live in the
country, the temperature differential is more than 20-30 degrees in the
summer nights, on a dry night. On a humid night, much less.






--
Jeff