I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

Bill

On Mon, 14 Mar 2011 14:42:50 -0400, Bill wrote:

I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

Perhaps less building products from China, but the prices are likely
to increase.

Mark

On 3/14/2011 1:59 PM, Markem wrote:
On Mon, 14 Mar 2011 14:42:50 -0400, wrote:

I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

Perhaps less building products from China, but the prices are likely
to increase.


Given the global downturn comparatively over the last number of years
there's undoubtedly _capacity_; whether there's any current surplus
sitting around in inventory it's been long enough that I'd doubt if
there's a lot but I've not seen any actual data.

Certainly when the rebuilding gets into high gear there will be at least
intermediate shortfalls locally if not globally and costs are virtually
certain to go up on speculation if nothing else. Of course, w/ the
current MidEast uncertainty boosting oil prices on that basis, that'll
have an effect as well depending on how that all works out.

--

dpb wrote:

some snipped

Certainly when the rebuilding gets into high gear there will be at least
intermediate shortfalls locally if not globally and costs are virtually
certain to go up on speculation if nothing else. Of course, w/ the
current MidEast uncertainty boosting oil prices on that basis, that'll
have an effect as well depending on how that all works out.

--


It caught me off guard when I heard that the demand for oil will go down
due to all of those cars that aren't going to be driving very far for a
while. Today, according to CNBC, that is offset by uncertainly in the gulf.

Bill

I wouldn't think they would want any construction of wood near the
shoreline, after seeing the videos of houses carried away.

Need some dead weight that doesn't float and a three story balcony to watch
for next time.

SHEESH...

----------

"Markem" wrote in message
...
Perhaps less building products from China, but the prices are likely
to increase.

Mark

-----------
On Mon, 14 Mar 2011 14:42:50 -0400, Bill wrote:
I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

On 3/14/2011 2:48 PM, Bill wrote:
dpb wrote:

some snipped

Certainly when the rebuilding gets into high gear there will be at least
intermediate shortfalls locally if not globally and costs are virtually
certain to go up on speculation if nothing else. Of course, w/ the
current MidEast uncertainty boosting oil prices on that basis, that'll
have an effect as well depending on how that all works out.

--


It caught me off guard when I heard that the demand for oil will go down
due to all of those cars that aren't going to be driving very far for a
while. Today, according to CNBC, that is offset by uncertainly in the gulf.
....

While perhaps that might be true, I don't know that the numbers in the
more heavily affected areas are that large a fraction of Japan's overall
numbers--seems like the numbers I've seen indicate those cities were 1M
or less whereas Tokyo alone is 30M+ (?).

I don't think we'll see any downturn in demand reflected in any
reduction in world markets on the oil front...if nothing else, any
mothballed or peaking capacity oil generation they have will probably
have to come on line to make up for the loss of nuclear generation
they're going to have for quite a long time. Different oil, of course,
and I don't know if there's any significant oil-fired capacity there to
make up the difference with, but a thought...

All in all, I'll give the nod to the speculators over reality any day at
least in the short run...

--

On Mar 14, 1:42*pm, Bill wrote:
I am very saddened by Japan's plight. *That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

Bill

My heart goes out to the people that have suffered loss.

I noticed in the financials that several of the larger publicly traded
construction contractor company's stock has gone up. I don't know
about materials shortage, but they're going to need a lot, and they
have very little in natural resources. How much did materials cost go
up post-Katrina? There's going to be a great danger if they don't
carefully inspect the stuff coming from China.

Some people see a lot of money to be made in new construction and
rebuilding. The cleanup will provide job opportunities for years to
come. I see an excellent opportunity for recycling. There's an
*enormous* amount of debris created when the tsunami came onshore. A
lot of this can be recycled back into construction materials.

Bill wrote:


It caught me off guard when I heard that the demand for oil will go
down due to all of those cars that aren't going to be driving very
far for a while. Today, according to CNBC, that is offset by
uncertainly in the gulf.

That would be surprising - those cars weren't driving very far to start
with.

--

-Mike-

On Mar 15, 6:47*am, "Mike Marlow"
wrote:
Bill wrote:

It caught me off guard when I heard that the demand for oil will go
down due to all of those cars that aren't going to be driving very
far for a while. *Today, according to CNBC, that is offset by
uncertainly in the gulf.

That would be surprising - those cars weren't driving very far to start
with.

--

-Mike-


But they were idling for an hour plus every day both ways on the
commute. The distance may not be too far, but the time is.
Regardless I doubt Japan's commuting is going to drive the world oil
market. The earthquake did not affect the entire country. Only a
small portion of it.

wrote:
On Mar 15, 6:47 am, "Mike Marlow"
wrote:
Bill wrote:

It caught me off guard when I heard that the demand for oil will go
down due to all of those cars that aren't going to be driving very
far for a while. Today, according to CNBC, that is offset by
uncertainly in the gulf.

That would be surprising - those cars weren't driving very far to
start with.

--

-Mike-


But they were idling for an hour plus every day both ways on the
commute. The distance may not be too far, but the time is.
Regardless I doubt Japan's commuting is going to drive the world oil
market. The earthquake did not affect the entire country. Only a
small portion of it.

Not so much outside of the large metro areas like Tokyo.

--

-Mike-

On Mar 14, 11:42*am, Bill wrote:
I am very saddened by Japan's plight. *That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

I had the same thought this morning. Entire villages are gone. I read
that it will be years before things resemble anything normal. Given
the current problems with the reactors, not sure if many people would
want to live in certain areas anymore.

Japan is a very resourceful country. I'm sure they will take their
time in building anything. However, there are LOTS of people
who don't have a home anymore. Where do they go?

MJ

MJ wrote:
On Mar 14, 11:42 am, Bill wrote:
I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there
adequate supply to meet their upcoming needs?

I had the same thought this morning. Entire villages are gone. I read
that it will be years before things resemble anything normal. Given
the current problems with the reactors, not sure if many people would
want to live in certain areas anymore.

Japan is a very resourceful country. I'm sure they will take their
time in building anything. However, there are LOTS of people
who don't have a home anymore. Where do they go?


It will certainly take a long time to recover from this disaster, and the
impact of losing those nukes will be significant for the country. The
people in the country are indeed resourceful and will get back on their feet
in one manner or another, faster than people here might. Their lifestyles
and their expectations are a lot more simple than here, or even in the metro
areas of Japan. I lived there for 3 years and watched how Typhoon Fran
devistated the island. Young and old just joined together and shouldered
into the work at hand.

--

-Mike-

It will certainly take a long time to recover from this disaster, and the
impact of losing those nukes will be significant for the country. *The
people in the country are indeed resourceful and will get back on their feet
in one manner or another, faster than people here might. *...
*Young and old just joined together and shouldered
into the work at hand.


I think this is often the case with the Japanese. They are very much
still a "closed" society. It is EXTREMELY difficult to become a
Japanese
citizen if you are not born there. They are so bound together that
they
all feel the pain when some of their citizens are feeling pain.

It is interesting to note, that with recent problems with the reactors
and the government not being totally truthful or really understanding
of the situation, that you don't have people marching in the street or
their legislature demanding the resignation of the cabinet. If it
goes further, I'm sure the current prime minister might be forced
to step down, but he will do it if he thinks he's lost face with
the citizens.

Interesting culture. I do hope it works out well for the survivors
and the country.

MJ

On Mar 14, 4:29*pm, "Josepi" wrote:
I wouldn't think they would want any construction of wood near the
shoreline, after seeing the videos of houses carried away.

Need some dead weight that doesn't float and a three story balcony to watch
for next time.

SHEESH...

----------

"Markem" *wrote in message

...
Perhaps less building products from China, but the prices are likely
to increase.

Mark

-----------On Mon, 14 Mar 2011 14:42:50 -0400, Bill wrote:

I am very saddened by Japan's plight. *That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

Cement would be no help. Force behind that tsunami
was equivalent to an F5 tornado repeated countless times
over. Takes the same energy to throw a car a mile, whether
by wind or by water.

Father Haskell wrote:


Cement would be no help. Force behind that tsunami
was equivalent to an F5 tornado repeated countless times
over. Takes the same energy to throw a car a mile, whether
by wind or by water.

Well - floating a car takes a lot less energy than throwing it - though you
may be right about the F5 tornado equivelance.

--

-Mike-

On Mar 16, 10:01*pm, "Mike Marlow"
wrote:
Father Haskell wrote:

Cement would be no help. *Force behind that tsunami
was equivalent to an F5 tornado repeated countless times
over. *Takes the same energy to throw a car a mile, whether
by wind or by water.

Well - floating a car takes a lot less energy than throwing it - though you
may be right about the F5 tornado equivelance.

--

-Mike-


Same work in terms of foot-pounds. End result is
just as disgusting.

In article , Bill
wrote:

I am very saddened by Japan's plight. That said, what does it imply
about the market for building materials (or similar)? Is there adequate
supply to meet their upcoming needs?

Bill

In Japan, they have very specific requirements for lumber, so they tend
to buy raw logs. Top grade raw logs. There are a large number of loggers
on the Pacific Coast drawing unemployment, so yes there is capacity. The
problem will come when the saw mills in Japan find themselves at
capacity.

For the first time in many decades (1950s was the last time) Japan may
import pre-cut lumber. The mills that get the contracts will have to
have really good quality control.

Expect that hotels in Japan will be hard to come by for the next 12
months, as the government uses them for temporary housing. Also expect
that empty apartments across the country will be put to use.

It will be a long difficult time for Japan to recover, but they will.
Don't expect to be offered a job in Japan rebuilding, the rules to work
in Japan are very tough.

The walls constructed for tsunami's failed in a very large way.

The correct thing to do is stay 3 miles from the coast with houses.

Japan has had MANY major licks with earthquakes and the resulting tsunami.

They always build right back on the edge of the big water.

On 3/14/2011 4:29 PM, Josepi wrote:
I wouldn't think they would want any construction of wood near the
shoreline, after seeing the videos of houses carried away.

Need some dead weight that doesn't float and a three story balcony to
watch for next time.