Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us who's
boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking fixed
up by next Winter?

On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

Not directly, but given we import a lot of gas from countries like the
Netherlands, I'm sure there will be a strong knock-on effect on
availability and prices.

On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

Colin Bignell

On Sat, 31 May 2014 19:31:29 +0100, Nightjar wrote:

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

But some of the pipelines have now been enabled for flow in either
direction. If Putin did turn off the gas to some old soviet countries
it would upset the market considerably. There is only so much gas
available should eastern block countries suddenly want to buy huge
quantities from Europe there may well not be enough to go round.

--
Cheers
Dave.

On 31/05/2014 19:31, Nightjar wrote:
On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

Colin Bignell
So signing up for a fixed price deal might not be a bad idea then?

harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us who's
boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking fixed
up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.


What a load of idiot postings.
Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas
b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply sufficient
energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.
c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?


Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former eastern
block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would rocket.

I'm old enough to remember Suez,and petrol rationing.
{we couldn't go on holiday when I was nine because we could not get
enough petrol for my dad's car}

Of course we could eat cake...
{if the revolution doesn't come first}

Jim Chisholm

"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply sufficient
energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation between
'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former eastern
block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would rocket.

Bull****.

I'm old enough to remember Suez,and petrol rationing.
{we couldn't go on holiday when I was nine because we could not get enough
petrol for my dad's car}

Even if rationing did happen, there is still no
point in doing anything right now for the
minute risk that Putin might be that stupid
when the obvious ways of dealing with it I
listed don’t require any preparation in advance.

Of course we could eat cake...
{if the revolution doesn't come first}

You'll end up completely blind if you don’t watch out, boy.

On 01/06/2014 00:27, Rod Speed wrote:


"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply
sufficient energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would
rocket.

Bull****.

Don't you understand that energy costs are pretty uniform across the
types of fuel?

If the supply one one is squeezed in supply, the others rise in price in
sympathy.

"Fredxxx" wrote in message
...
On 01/06/2014 00:27, Rod Speed wrote:


"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply
sufficient energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would
rocket.

Bull****.

Don't you understand that energy costs are pretty uniform across the types
of fuel?

They arent actually. Electricity is much more expensive
for heating the entire house than gas for example even
if you go for the most effective electrical heating like
heat pumps, you have a substantial capital cost that
isnt there with gas heating to anywhere near the same
extent.

Its not so true with cooking.

If the supply one one is squeezed in supply, the others rise in price in
sympathy.

That doesn’t happen with coal prices.

On Sat, 31 May 2014 19:08:34 +0100, Fredxxx wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

Not directly, but given we import a lot of gas from countries like the
Netherlands, I'm sure there will be a strong knock-on effect on
availability and prices.

D'you think it'll affect bulk LPG as well as mains gas?

On 01/06/2014 02:50, Rod Speed wrote:


"Fredxxx" wrote in message
...
On 01/06/2014 00:27, Rod Speed wrote:


"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using
gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply
sufficient energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would
rocket.

Bull****.

Don't you understand that energy costs are pretty uniform across the
types of fuel?

They arent actually. Electricity is much more expensive
for heating the entire house than gas for example even
if you go for the most effective electrical heating like
heat pumps, you have a substantial capital cost that
isnt there with gas heating to anywhere near the same
extent.
As a primary fuel, prices are level. Some very large users have
facilities that enable them to switch relatively easily between say oil
and gas.

Its not so true with cooking.

If the supply one one is squeezed in supply, the others rise in price
in sympathy.

That doesn’t happen with coal prices.
Oh yes it does

The exploitation of (relatively) cheap shale gas in USA has caused the
price of coal to fall, both in USA and in the UK.
Imports of cheaper coals from USA, has resulted in a number of opencast
coal sites in the UK to close, and is one of the causes of the almost
complete cessation of deep mining in UK.

One really horrifing thing is that at many locations (N Sea in earlier
days of oil for example) huge amounts of gas are simply flared off at
oil well because it is seen as 'too difficult' to collect.

If we saved a significant amount of the energy we currently waste we'd
solve two big problems at a single blow. And I don't mean having
electric car (run on electricity created from gas or coal).

Jim

On Sun, 1 Jun 2014 09:27:41 +1000, Rod Speed wrote:

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

Or even the amount of the daytime baseload that comes from gas. Even
if you ignore the peak deamnd it wouldn't take much reduction in
available gas supplies for demand to exceed capacity.

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was actually stupid enough to
turn the gas off.

He might not turn off the supplies to EU directly but he may well
turn it off to eastren block countries that looko to being "too
friendly" with his "enemy" Europe.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal
would
rocket.

Bull****.

It would have a dramatic affect on the markets. Since the last
hiccough with gas supplies to eastern block countries a year or so
back a number of the pipelines can now supply those countries from
Europe. That wasn't an option before.

Even if rationing did happen, there is still no point in doing anything
right now for the minute risk that Putin might be that stupid ...

What makes you think he isn't that "stupid". Recent events make it
very clear he considers Europe a threat to Russia. He might not want
to pick a direct fight but he's well into the indirect.

... when the obvious ways of dealing with it I listed don t require any
preparation in advance.

Except all you listed require mains electricity ... If we get a cold
winter the margins on peak demand are going to be tight, have a
reduction in the amount of gas available of a just a few GW and
action to keep the lights on will have to be taken. Yes, there will
be contracts in place for gas to provide the normal sort of winter
demand but gas for the peaks is bought on the spot market, assuming
it's there to be bought or hasn't become unaffordable. "Unaffordable"
may mean shutting down business at 1500 or 1600 mid winter to avoid
the lights going out at 1700/1800.

Mind you with next year being an election year there will be an awful
lot of background shinanigins between the generators and HMG to make
sure that the business doesn't have to close early and to keep the
lights on. Those electicity contracts that allow the supply to be cut
off to load balance could well be called into action.

--
Cheers
Dave.

"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from Russia
and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we are in
no serious danger of shortages.


It wouldn't surprised if there wasn't some behind the scenes deal whereby we
had to export gas from our bulk supplies from Qatar to the continent if
there was an emergency.
Using existing pipelines.

And if the Germans had no gas, no doubt gas we get from the continent might
be diverted from us to Germany.

"GMM" GlMiMa-AT-yahoo.co.uk wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 19:31, Nightjar wrote:
On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

Colin Bignell
So signing up for a fixed price deal might not be a bad idea then?

I think we have just started a five year fixed price deal with Qatar.

"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.


What a load of idiot postings.
Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas
b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply sufficient
energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.
c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation between
'price' and un-availability of a product?


Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former eastern
block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would rocket.

I'm old enough to remember Suez,and petrol rationing.
{we couldn't go on holiday when I was nine because we could not get enough
petrol for my dad's car}

Of course we could eat cake...
{if the revolution doesn't come first}


Exactly so.
There is around 2% spare capacity in the elecricity supply I think.
So in a gas shortage, not enough to help.

So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of fuel
Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.
Maybe small generator for freezers etc.
The above is what I have done.

"Rod Speed" wrote in message
...


"Fredxxx" wrote in message
...
On 01/06/2014 00:27, Rod Speed wrote:


"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using
gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply
sufficient energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would
rocket.

Bull****.

Don't you understand that energy costs are pretty uniform across the
types of fuel?

They arent actually. Electricity is much more expensive
for heating the entire house than gas for example even
if you go for the most effective electrical heating like
heat pumps, you have a substantial capital cost that
isnt there with gas heating to anywhere near the same
extent.

Electricity is expensive to buy but cheap to convert to heat.
Gas is cheap to buy but expensive to convert to heat.
This is how the price link works.

Putin will have his way.
Whatever it takes.
The Russians won't lose a penny, they can sell gas to China now.
They will become ever richer and more powerful.

On 31/05/2014 20:00, Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Sat, 31 May 2014 19:31:29 +0100, Nightjar wrote:

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

But some of the pipelines have now been enabled for flow in either
direction. If Putin did turn off the gas to some old soviet countries
it would upset the market considerably. There is only so much gas
available should eastern block countries suddenly want to buy huge
quantities from Europe there may well not be enough to go round.

Which isn't likely to be much of a problem unless you expect Norway and
Qatar to renege on their contracts with us. In any case, higher prices
would mean that places like the USA, Nigeria, Yemen and Trinidad and
Tobago, which we have bought from in the past, become viable suppliers
again.

Colin Bignell

On 01/06/2014 08:54, harryagain wrote:
"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from Russia
and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we are in
no serious danger of shortages.


It wouldn't surprised if there wasn't some behind the scenes deal whereby we
had to export gas from our bulk supplies from Qatar to the continent if
there was an emergency.
Using existing pipelines.

We already export nearly 25% of our imports and there are plenty of
other countries with gas that we don't buy from at present.

Colin Bignell

Jim Chisholm wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Fredxxx wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Jim Chisholm wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using
gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply
sufficient energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would
rocket.

Bull****.

Don't you understand that energy costs are pretty uniform across the
types of fuel?

They arent actually. Electricity is much more expensive
for heating the entire house than gas for example even
if you go for the most effective electrical heating like
heat pumps, you have a substantial capital cost that isnt there with gas
heating to anywhere near the same extent.

As a primary fuel, prices are level.

Bull****, most obviously with brown coal which has no other use.

Some very large users have facilities that enable them to switch
relatively easily between say oil and gas.

But not to brown coal etc.

Its not so true with cooking.

If the supply one one is squeezed in supply, the others rise in price in
sympathy.

That doesn’t happen with coal prices.

Oh yes it does

Like hell it does with brown coal.

The exploitation of (relatively) cheap shale gas in USA has caused the
price of coal to fall, both in USA and in the UK.

That's nothing like the original sweeping claim.

Imports of cheaper coals from USA, has resulted in a number of opencast
coal sites in the UK to close, and is one of the causes of the almost
complete cessation of deep mining in UK.

That’s an entirely separate issue the stupid claim that the price of say
brown coal is that same as crude oil and that they track each other.

One really horrifing thing is that at many locations (N Sea in earlier
days of oil for example) huge amounts of gas are simply flared off at oil
well because it is seen as 'too difficult' to collect.

Again, an entirely separate matter to the stupid claim being discussed.

If we saved a significant amount of the energy we currently waste we'd
solve two big problems at a single blow. And I don't mean having electric
car (run on electricity created from gas or coal).

Again, an entirely separate matter to the stupid claim being discussed.

On 01/06/2014 09:06, harryagain wrote:
....
Putin will have his way.
Whatever it takes.
The Russians won't lose a penny, they can sell gas to China now.

The Australians are getting set to take that market, along with much of
the rest of the Far East. From 2016, there will be a lot more Middle
East gas available to Europe as a result of Australian gas sales.

Colin Bignell

Dave Liquorice wrote
Rod Speed wrote

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any
point in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

Or even the amount of the daytime baseload that comes from gas.
Even if you ignore the peak deamnd it wouldn't take much reduction
in available gas supplies for demand to exceed capacity.

Sure, but that's a separate matter to whether there is any point
in the average consumer doing anything right now just in case
Putin is actually stupid enough to do anything like that, in the
very remote eventuality that that would have much effect on
what gas still ends up in Britain if he was that stupid.

Even if there was a significant effect on the gas that ends
up in Britain, the worst that might result from that is some
discouragement of some uses of peak power etc.

There is no point in any consumer doing anything right now.

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

He might not turn off the supplies to EU directly but
he may well turn it off to eastren block countries that
looko to being "too friendly" with his "enemy" Europe.

Sure, but that wouldn't have any effect on consumers in Britain.

Even if the EU was actually stupid enough to not allow Putin
to sell any gas to the EU because he had been stupid enough
to quite literally invade the Ukraine militarily, that wouldn't
have any real effect on the consumers in Britain that would
see any need for any consumer to do anything right now.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west
(and former eastern block countries such as Poland),
even the price of coal would rocket.

Bull****.

It would have a dramatic affect on the markets.

Sure, but the price of COAL would not ROCKET.

Since the last hiccough with gas supplies to eastern block countries
a year or so back a number of the pipelines can now supply those
countries from Europe. That wasn't an option before.

Sure, but again, the price of COAL would not ROCKET.

Even if rationing did happen, there is still no point in doing anything
right now for the minute risk that Putin might be that stupid ...

What makes you think he isn't that "stupid".

He's never been that stupid before.

Recent events make it very clear he considers Europe a threat to Russia.

Like hell he does in the sense that there would be
any point in turning off the gas to the EU countrys.

If anything doing that might encourage the EU to **** over
Russia to get rid of him and turn the gas back on again.

He might not want to pick a direct fight

Corse he wouldn't. They shat themselves very comprehensively
indeed when they saw what happened with the first Gulf War
when the west ****ed over Iraq's russia supplied military
hardware very comprehensively indeed.

but he's well into the indirect.

Not with stuff that would just increase the risk of Nato ****ing
over Russia and getting rid of him and turning the gas on again.

... when the obvious ways of dealing with it I
listed don t require any preparation in advance.

Except all you listed require mains electricity ...

Sure, but that not going to go away in Britain even
if Putin is actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

If we get a cold winter the margins on peak demand are going to
be tight, have a reduction in the amount of gas available of a just
a few GW and action to keep the lights on will have to be taken.

By just not allowing people to turn their electrical heating on at peak
times.

That would be a complete yawn for those who can still use their
microwaves and halogen ovens instead of their convention ovens
and use their electric blankets on their beds instead of heating the
whole house overnight using electrical heating.

Even they arent allowed to run any fan heaters during the evening
and have to lie in bed with the electric blanket on watching TV etc
its hardly the end of civilisation as we know it and there is not need
to actually do anything right now for such a very unlikely possibility.

Yes, there will be contracts in place for gas to provide the normal
sort of winter demand but gas for the peaks is bought on the spot
market, assuming it's there to be bought or hasn't become unaffordable.
"Unaffordable" may mean shutting down business at 1500 or 1600 mid
winter to avoid the lights going out at 1700/1800.

Or just tell everyone that they arent allowed to
turn the fan heaters on when they get home etc
and if that's too cold, that they have to watch TV
in bed instead of running the fan heater etc.

Mind you with next year being an election year there will
be an awful lot of background shinanigins between the
generators and HMG to make sure that the business
doesn't have to close early and to keep the lights on.

Precisely. I bet they wouldn't even tell people that
they have to watch TV in bed in the evening either.

Those electicity contracts that allow the supply to be
cut off to load balance could well be called into action.

Sure, but again, that's no big deal for consumers and
there is a microscopic risk of it happening anyway.

Even if I was running a business that absolutely
depended on gas or electricity to be viable I
wouldn't bother spending a cent to make it
easier to deal with Putin being that stupid myself.

I wouldn't even insure against it either, even
tho the premium wouldn't amount to much.

harryagain wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Fredxxx wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Jim Chisholm wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.

We'll see...

Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using
gas

Peak electricity is irrelevant to whether there is any point
in doing anything right now for such a trivial risk.

b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply
sufficient energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.

Irrelevant to what would actually happen in Britain if
Putin was actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Irrelevant to what is available if Putin was
actually stupid enough to turn the gas off.

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former
eastern block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would
rocket.

Bull****.

Don't you understand that energy costs are pretty uniform across the
types of fuel?

They arent actually. Electricity is much more expensive
for heating the entire house than gas for example even
if you go for the most effective electrical heating like
heat pumps, you have a substantial capital cost that
isnt there with gas heating to anywhere near the same
extent.

Electricity is expensive to buy but cheap to convert to heat.

Not with heat pumps, its quite expensive to convert to heat that way.

Gas is cheap to buy but expensive to convert to heat.

No it isnt when heating a house with it.

It isnt even that much more expensive when heating
just the main room alone with one or the other.

This is how the price link works.

Fraid not.

Putin will have his way.
Whatever it takes.

Very likely, but its unlikely that he will actually
be stupid enough to cut off the gas to the EU.

And even if he was that stupid, like I said,
consumers in Britain don’t need to do anything
now to handle that very unlikely possibility.

Even if I didn’t have an electric blanket or microwave,
I wouldn’t bother to run out and buy one now. Plenty of
time to buy them if Putin does pull the plug on the gas,
before say the gas that Britain currently gets from europe
is diverted to say Germany.

The Russians won't lose a penny, they can sell gas to China now.

Makes a lot more sense to sell it to anyone who wants to buy it.

They will become ever richer and more powerful.

They will still be an economic shambles compared
with the best of the EU and even Britain.

harryagain wrote
Jim Chisholm wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that’s only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.

What a load of idiot postings.
Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas
b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply sufficient
energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.
c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?

Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former eastern
block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would rocket.

I'm old enough to remember Suez,and petrol rationing.
{we couldn't go on holiday when I was nine because we could not get
enough petrol for my dad's car}

Of course we could eat cake...
{if the revolution doesn't come first}

Exactly so.

Fraid not.

There is around 2% spare capacity in the elecricity supply I think.
So in a gas shortage, not enough to help.

But it would be completely trivial to tell people that they
arent allowed to turn their fan heaters on in the evening
etc and if that's not warm enough they should watch TV
in bed etc.

So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of fuel

Completely pointless spending that sort of money
for such an extremely unlikely possibility that either
Putin will be that stupid, or that it would have any
real effect on Britain even if he was that stupid.

Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.

Even sillier. Mains power isnt going
to disappear even if Putin is that stupid.

Maybe small generator for freezers etc.

Even sillier.

The above is what I have done.

No surprises there.

harryagain wrote
Nightjar wrote
Tim Streater wrote
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps
to show us who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas
comes from Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably
affect prices, but we are in no serious danger of shortages.

It wouldn't surprised if there wasn't some behind the scenes deal
whereby we had to export gas from our bulk supplies from Qatar
to the continent if there was an emergency.
Using existing pipelines.

And if the Germans had no gas, no doubt gas we get from
the continent might be diverted from us to Germany.

Sure, but even if that happened, the worst that would happen
is that you might have to watch TV in bed in the evening and
use the microwave or halogen oven to do the dinner.

In message , Adrian
writes
On Sat, 31 May 2014 19:08:34 +0100, Fredxxx wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

Not directly, but given we import a lot of gas from countries like the
Netherlands, I'm sure there will be a strong knock-on effect on
availability and prices.

D'you think it'll affect bulk LPG as well as mains gas?
LPG is propane and we have loads of that ourselves.
--
bert

In message , Nightjar
writes
On 31/05/2014 18:58, Tim Streater wrote:
In article , harryagain
wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but
we are in no serious danger of shortages.

Colin Bignell
Esp as the US have now agreed to export their excess from fracking.
Just as an aside I wonder how many people who object to fracking deep
under their homes without their explicit permission as happy to use salt
on the roads in winter
--
bert

In message o.uk, Dave
Liquorice writes
On Sat, 31 May 2014 19:31:29 +0100, Nightjar wrote:

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

But some of the pipelines have now been enabled for flow in either
direction. If Putin did turn off the gas to some old soviet countries
it would upset the market considerably. There is only so much gas
available should eastern block countries suddenly want to buy huge
quantities from Europe there may well not be enough to go round.

Meanwhile the Russian economy would be even closer to collapse, but I
don't suppose that would bother Putin too much
--
bert

"harryagain" wrote in message
...

"Jim Chisholm" wrote in message
...
On 31/05/2014 22:04, Rod Speed wrote:
harryagain wrote

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)

I think the risk is so low that it isnt worth bothering about,
particularly as everyone has some form of electrical cooking
that can be used if needed, even if that's only a microwave
or halogen oven etc.

Which might result in problems in the UK.
Might be an idea to have alternative arrangments for heating/cooking
fixed up by next Winter?

No point in doing anything in advance for such a low
risk when you already have some stuff you can use.

With the heating, if the **** does hit the fan you
can always just lie in the bed with the electric
blanket on if you really do need to avoid dying
of the cold etc.


What a load of idiot postings.
Is it only me who:
a) knows roughly how much of our peak electricity is generated using gas
b) understands that whatever, the elec grid could not supply sufficient
energy to replace much currently supplied by gas.
c) remembers enough 'O' level economics to understand the relation
between 'price' and un-availability of a product?


Should Russia shut off all its gas sales to the west (and former eastern
block countries such as Poland), even the price of coal would rocket.

I'm old enough to remember Suez,and petrol rationing.
{we couldn't go on holiday when I was nine because we could not get
enough petrol for my dad's car}

Of course we could eat cake...
{if the revolution doesn't come first}


Exactly so.
There is around 2% spare capacity in the elecricity supply I think.
So in a gas shortage, not enough to help.

So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of fuel
Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.
Maybe small generator for freezers etc.
The above is what I have done.

Am i the only one who was waiting for harry to post that ^^^^^^

almost every thread he posts about fuel shortages, price rises, dangers,
pollution etc is done so he can post later on in the thread 'of course it
won't affect me, i have solar panels, an electric car and can heat my entire
house by lighting a single squeaky fart a day, so nyer nyer ne nyer ner'

If the post apocalypse world is going to be full of harrys, i'm more than
happy to die off first so i don't have to live with them.

On Sun, 01 Jun 2014 12:27:11 +0100, bert wrote:

Seems to me next Winter Putin might turn off the gas taps to show us
who's boss. (No point in doing it in the Summer.)
Which might result in problems in the UK.

I thought we didn't buy (significant) gas from Russia?

Not directly, but given we import a lot of gas from countries like the
Netherlands, I'm sure there will be a strong knock-on effect on
availability and prices.

D'you think it'll affect bulk LPG as well as mains gas?

LPG is propane and we have loads of that ourselves.

pats big green tank happily

On 01/06/2014 09:01, harryagain wrote:
....
So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of fuel
Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.
Maybe small generator for freezers etc.
The above is what I have done.

Given that you seem to be expecting the collapse of western civilisation
at any moment, I'm surprised you have limited yourself to that. No
twelve months' stock of canned goods, crates of bottled water and pump
action shotgun to keep off the looters?

Colin Bignell

On 01/06/2014 10:58, Nightjar wrote:
On 31/05/2014 20:00, Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Sat, 31 May 2014 19:31:29 +0100, Nightjar wrote:

As Harry has been told before, only about 2% of our gas comes from
Russia and that very indirectly. It would probably affect prices, but we
are in no serious danger of shortages.

But some of the pipelines have now been enabled for flow in either
direction. If Putin did turn off the gas to some old soviet countries
it would upset the market considerably. There is only so much gas
available should eastern block countries suddenly want to buy huge
quantities from Europe there may well not be enough to go round.

Which isn't likely to be much of a problem unless you expect Norway and
Qatar to renege on their contracts with us. In any case, higher prices
would mean that places like the USA, Nigeria, Yemen and Trinidad and
Tobago, which we have bought from in the past, become viable suppliers
again.


The whole premise also assumes that Putin would be willing to cut of his
countries' principle supply of export income just to make a political
point.


--
Cheers,

John.

/================================================== ===============\
| Internode Ltd - http://www.internode.co.uk |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------|
| John Rumm - john(at)internode(dot)co(dot)uk |
\================================================= ================/

"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
On 01/06/2014 09:01, harryagain wrote:
...
So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of fuel
Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.
Maybe small generator for freezers etc.
The above is what I have done.

Given that you seem to be expecting the collapse of western civilisation
at any moment, I'm surprised you have limited yourself to that. No twelve
months' stock of canned goods, crates of bottled water and pump action
shotgun to keep off the looters?

Don't think power cuts can't happen.
The question is when?
In the last couple of decades our idiot governments have left us up ****
creek without a paddle energywise.
All it takes is a cold Winter and Putin to get a bit nasty.

On 01/06/2014 16:54, harryagain wrote:
"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
On 01/06/2014 09:01, harryagain wrote:
...
So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of fuel
Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.
Maybe small generator for freezers etc.
The above is what I have done.

Given that you seem to be expecting the collapse of western civilisation
at any moment, I'm surprised you have limited yourself to that. No twelve
months' stock of canned goods, crates of bottled water and pump action
shotgun to keep off the looters?

Don't think power cuts can't happen.
The question is when?

By the winter of 2015/2106, the odds of an energy shortfall will be one
year in 12. I have long had emergency lights in strategic points around
the house, to give me a lit route to the consumer unit and also to deter
burglars who look for unlit houses during a power cut, but the rest is
overkill. Load reduction will start with heavy industrial users and, in
the unlikely event of domestic power cuts, they will be four hours long
in rotation, as they were in the 1970s.

In the last couple of decades our idiot governments have left us up ****
creek without a paddle energywise.

That is the fault of those who think that renewable energy is viable. We
should have been building nuclear power stations long since.

All it takes is a cold Winter and Putin to get a bit nasty.

As I have said, all that is likely to do is to put the prices up.

Colin Bignell

harryagain wrote
Nightjar wrote
harryagain wrote

So it might be a good idea to have a solid fuel stove and a stash of
fuel
Maybe candles/lantern & camping gas stove.
Maybe small generator for freezers etc.
The above is what I have done.

Given that you seem to be expecting the collapse of western civilisation
at any moment, I'm surprised you have limited yourself to that. No twelve
months' stock of canned goods, crates of bottled water and pump action
shotgun to keep off the looters?

Don't think power cuts can't happen.

Power won't be going away for long, you watch.

Because even the stupidest politician knows what the
result would be for them if that ever happened for long.

The question is when?

Not in my lifetime, or yours either.

In the last couple of decades our idiot governments have left us up ****
creek without a paddle energywise.

Bull****.

All it takes is a cold Winter and Putin to get a bit nasty.

Even sillier than you usually manage.

In article , Gazz writes

'of course it
won't affect me, i have solar panels, an electric car and can heat my entire
house by lighting a single squeaky fart a day, so nyer nyer ne nyer ner'

Biscuit crumbs all over my keyboard. That'll teach me to eat them while
reading usenet.

--
(\_/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")