Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

--
geoff

On 29/12/12 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

sadly that is rather old news, and its all been reversed now.


--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 29/12/12 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

sadly that is rather old news, and its all been reversed now.

Ahhhh, so it's suddenly viable.

On 29/12/12 23:12, brass monkey wrote:
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 29/12/12 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

sadly that is rather old news, and its all been reversed now.

Ahhhh, so it's suddenly viable.


No, the government sat on Davey and told him to recant.

He was in danger of being sacked for telling the truth.


--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

The Natural Philosopher writes:

On 29/12/12 23:12, brass monkey wrote:
"The Natural Philosopher" wrote in message
...
On 29/12/12 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

sadly that is rather old news, and its all been reversed now.

Ahhhh, so it's suddenly viable.


No, the government sat on Davey and told him to recant.

He was in danger of being sacked for telling the truth.

Many have discovered that telling the truth is the one unforgiveable
crime. It is therefore left to small boys to comment on the emperor's
apparel.

--
Windmill, Use t m i l l
J.R.R. Tolkien:- @ O n e t e l . c o m
All that is gold does not glister / Not all who wander are lost

On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases/281-wearnandntearnhitsnwindnfarmnoutputnandneconomicnl ifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

In article , Andy Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

Bearings, generator slip rings, what?...

--
Tony Sayer

On 30/12/12 15:53, Andy Champ wrote:
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.


Professor Hughes is a well known and very respected critic of renewable
energy.
Unreliability is also one of the reasons why wind farms fail to reach
theoretical capacity factors. Half the time half the windmills are shut
down awaiting a service.

Making them more reliable involves extra cost and more energy in the
manufacturing.

A bad idea whose time came and went hundreds of years ago.



Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases/281-wearnandntearnhitsnwindnfarmnoutputnandneconomicnl ifetime


AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5


mainlink worked for me.

Andy


--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

On 30/12/12 16:13, tony sayer wrote:
In article , Andy Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..


Ah. You misunderstand. A generator that is down for maintenance ten
percent of the time or breaks down at periods of high wind and high
generation capacity has a lower AVERAGE output than a new one that is
available when the wind is.


Bearings, generator slip rings, what?...

Largely bearings and gearboxes. (you don't get much output easily from
an alternator doing 60 RPM).

The basic problem is a cantilevered bearing that is holding a massive
propellor that is subject to massive flexing and torque variation as the
wind gusts and as the blades pass through areas of ground turbulence.
That massively stresses bearings. In addition if the shaft is hard
coupled to the gearbox, that transmits the stress to that: newer designs
are experimenting with flexible coupling to take the side loads and
torque shocks off the gearbox but its still a bad thing really.

They did experiment with non gearbox designs but its hard to actually
get the power out of them..

Then throw in things like salt spray and bronze-steel surfaces
(typical of many bearings) and you have a perfect recipe for
electrochemical corrosion, especially in the presence of strong magnetic
fields..and guess what there is a a big generator - strong magnetic fields.

Ceramic bearings have been tried, but they take up a lot of power end
get hotter, and are more expensive..and take more energy to make.

Finishing off on the mechanical side, squashed bugs general filth and
ice can all throw the blades out of balance. So you need electrical
blade heating and helicopters to pressure wash the blades..all of which
cots money and takes energy..I don't know if there are things like
regular oil changes which will of course take oil..and more cost and
energy - to replace as well.

Then you need inverters to upconvert the power. Those are big - 2MW peak
outputs may have to be catered for. And if you seal that lot against the
wind and salt spray, its gonna get HOT. Not good. Then there are te
control electronics and the head slew and blade pitch adjusters. More
electronics, more bearings, more mechanicals. Any and all of which can
and do fail. Sometimes with devastating results.

All; of which is stick up a pole in the wind and rain, not in a nice
warm cosy sheltered turbine hall where a mechanic can get to it simply
easily and quickly and perform routine maintenance.

Which is why the average MTBF is not years or even months. Its days. Yes
folks, on average a turbine will need some non routine maintenance every
50 days or so. That may not stop it working, but if left, it will. Which
is why after about 6 months of operation its not uncommon to see a third
of the turbines in a given farm not working at any given time...







--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

On 30/12/2012 16:13, tony sayer wrote:
In article , Andy Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

Bearings, generator slip rings, what?...


The air molecules.

"tony sayer" wrote in message
...
In article , Andy Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

As is the "must be replaced".

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the costs of
installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and the blades.

It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

In article ,
tim..... wrote:

"tony sayer" wrote in message
...
In article , Andy Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

As is the "must be replaced".

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the costs of
installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and the blades.

It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

and not knowing about real costs, I'd have put that as the most expensive
bit. As as for getting up there ....



--
From KT24

Using a RISC OS computer running v5.18

charles wrote:
In article ,
tim..... wrote:

"tony sayer" wrote in message
...
In article , Andy Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy
The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

As is the "must be replaced".

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the costs of
installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and the blades.

It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

and not knowing about real costs, I'd have put that as the most expensive
bit. As as for getting up there ....

What's the expected service life of the composites they use to make the
blades?

--
Tciao for Now!

John.

"charles" wrote in message
...
In article ,
tim..... wrote:

"tony sayer" wrote in message
...
In article , Andy
Champ
scribeth thus
On 29/12/2012 21:21, geoff wrote:
Yesterdays announcement



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...dance-wind-far
ms--dangerous-delusions-age.html

Comment in today's paper (not that one) that they seem to be wearing
out
rather faster than they were supposed to, and that this is reducing
their output.

Original reference:

http://www.ref.org.uk/press-releases...farmnoutputnan
dneconomicnlifetime

AKA

http://tinyurl.com/cxd43u5

Andy

The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed and
site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms declines
substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and tear. By 10
years of age the contribution of an average UK wind farm to meeting
electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to operate
wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period they must
be
replaced with new machines, a finding that has profound consequences
for
investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

As is the "must be replaced".

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the costs of
installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and the blades.

It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

and not knowing about real costs, I'd have put that as the most expensive
bit.

why

it's an off the shelf, standard part

putting up a 300 meter high building is not

As as for getting up there ....

agreed

tim

In article ,
tim..... wrote:


why

it's an off the shelf, standard part

I very much doubt if any product of that size is "off the shelf". They
will be made to order, and just because it is a standard design doesn't
mean it's cheap.

--
From KT24

Using a RISC OS computer running v5.18

On 31/12/12 10:17, tim..... wrote:

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the costs
of installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and the blades.

I don't think so.
Blades are not expensive. neither is a prefab steel tower. Bearings
gearboxes and electronics are.


It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

No, it isnt.





--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

On 31.12.2012 11:17, tim..... wrote:
....
The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed
and site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms
declines substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and
tear. By 10 years of age the contribution of an average UK wind
farm to meeting electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to
operate wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period
they must be replaced with new machines, a finding that has
profound consequences for investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

As is the "must be replaced".

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the
costs of installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and
the blades.

It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

Here is a source for numbers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of...city_by_source
The Institution of Engineers and Shipbuilders in Scotland
commissioned a former Director of Operations of the British National
Grid, Colin Gibson, to produce a report on generation levelised
costs that for the first time would include some of the transmission
costs as well as the generation costs. This was published in
December 2011 and is available on the internet :.[26] The institution
seeks to encourage debate of the issue, and has taken the unusual
step among compilers of such studies of publishing a spreadsheet
showing its data available on the internet :[27]
http://www.iesisenergy.org/lcost/
These estimates of levelised cost have been produced by Colin Gibson,
formerly Power Network Director with the National Grid. In this role
he had responsibility for the power system of England & Wales, with
departments covering development of the system, commercial
arrangements, asset management and system operation. His experience
in power systems, and in both thermal and pumped storage power
stations, make him one of the the most knowledgeable people in the UK
in relation to electricity generation issues.

Levelised cost is a predictive model and therefore careful assessment
of its usefuleness needs to be considered. In particular the model
needs to be validated i.e. there needs to be an assessment of whether
the model can satisfy its requirements. In this case the requirement
is to provide information to assess the costs to electricity consumer
over a investment period. The validation analysis provided as an
appendix to the Covering Paper comes to the conclusion that the
results are likely to be indicative of the relative costs rather than
provide accurate predictions of actual cost.

It is hoped that the information made available here will stimulate
the commissioning of a corresponding study based on the more accurate
total system cost approach. Resources to carry out such a study are
not available to IESIS.



China show how to get cheap and clean energy:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/28/china-areva-taishan-nuclear-thibault
Areva's partner, the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC),
one of the two companies that dominate the Chinese market for
civilian nuclear power, also benefits from the experience of its own
subcontractors, who have been working at full capacity since the
1980s when China started trying to reduce its dependence on coal.

"Their civil engineering firms haven't stopped building power
stations since," says Roger Seban, the deputy chief executive of
TSNPC, the joint venture that has enabled the French utility company
EDF to take part in the project.

Another essential ingredient is Chinese labour; there are 9,000
workers currently on site. Instead of working three eight-hour
shifts, as is common in Europe, the people working for Hua Xing, the
concrete contractor on the first Taishan reactor, work 10-hour
stints, seven days a week.
--
jo
"When you measure what you are speaking about and express
it in numbers, you know something about it, but when you
cannot express it in numbers your knowledge about is of
a meagre and unsatisfactory kind."
--William Thomson (Lord Kelvin).

On 31/12/12 17:36, Jo Stein wrote:
On 31.12.2012 11:17, tim..... wrote:
...
The results show that after allowing for variations in wind speed
and site characteristics the average load factor of wind farms
declines substantially as they get older, probably due to wear and
tear. By 10 years of age the contribution of an average UK wind
farm to meeting electricity demand has declined by a third.

This decline in performance means that it is rarely economic to
operate wind farms for more than 12 to 15 years. After this period
they must be replaced with new machines, a finding that has
profound consequences for investors and government alike.

"Probably due to wear and tear"?.

Seems rather vague, what's to wear and tear to affect the output
significantly?..

As is the "must be replaced".

I would have thought (I have no real idea) that about 95% of the
costs of installing a windmill is in the cost of the structure and
the blades.

It's only the turbine that going to wear out and need replacing.

Here is a source for numbers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of...city_by_source
The Institution of Engineers and Shipbuilders in Scotland
commissioned a former Director of Operations of the British National
Grid, Colin Gibson, to produce a report on generation levelised
costs that for the first time would include some of the transmission
costs as well as the generation costs. This was published in
December 2011 and is available on the internet :.[26] The institution
seeks to encourage debate of the issue, and has taken the unusual
step among compilers of such studies of publishing a spreadsheet
showing its data available on the internet :[27]
http://www.iesisenergy.org/lcost/
These estimates of levelised cost have been produced by Colin Gibson,
formerly Power Network Director with the National Grid. In this role
he had responsibility for the power system of England & Wales, with
departments covering development of the system, commercial
arrangements, asset management and system operation. His experience
in power systems, and in both thermal and pumped storage power
stations, make him one of the the most knowledgeable people in the UK
in relation to electricity generation issues.

Levelised cost is a predictive model and therefore careful assessment
of its usefuleness needs to be considered. In particular the model
needs to be validated i.e. there needs to be an assessment of whether
the model can satisfy its requirements. In this case the requirement
is to provide information to assess the costs to electricity consumer
over a investment period. The validation analysis provided as an
appendix to the Covering Paper comes to the conclusion that the
results are likely to be indicative of the relative costs rather than
provide accurate predictions of actual cost.

It is hoped that the information made available here will stimulate
the commissioning of a corresponding study based on the more accurate
total system cost approach. Resources to carry out such a study are
not available to IESIS.



China show how to get cheap and clean energy:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/28/china-areva-taishan-nuclear-thibault

Areva's partner, the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC),
one of the two companies that dominate the Chinese market for
civilian nuclear power, also benefits from the experience of its own
subcontractors, who have been working at full capacity since the
1980s when China started trying to reduce its dependence on coal.

"Their civil engineering firms haven't stopped building power
stations since," says Roger Seban, the deputy chief executive of
TSNPC, the joint venture that has enabled the French utility company
EDF to take part in the project.

Another essential ingredient is Chinese labour; there are 9,000
workers currently on site. Instead of working three eight-hour
shifts, as is common in Europe, the people working for Hua Xing, the
concrete contractor on the first Taishan reactor, work 10-hour
stints, seven days a week.

Ah the great fraud of levelised costs where massive taxation on carbon
and nuclear fuel magically makes windpower look attractive, and totally
ignores the fact that since wind must be co-operated with fossil, there
are other costs involved in providing wind dispatch.

And the resident Believer trots out all the usual fraudulent sources
written by renewable energy shills..


--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

All I know is I am wearing out prematurely...

I am attempting to remedy this by adding lots of liquid lubricant.

Happy new year

or whatever...

:-o


--
Tim Watts Personal Blog: http://www.dionic.net/tim/

"She got her looks from her father. He's a plastic surgeon."

In message , Tim Watts
writes
All I know is I am wearing out prematurely...

I am attempting to remedy this by adding lots of liquid lubricant.

Happy new year

or whatever...

:-o


Bit of the white spirit with a dash of orange juice?
--
bert