My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

MM

On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:
My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

Colin Bignell

"Nightjar" wrote in message
...
On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:
My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

Indeed, the forecast at the beginning of this week said that Thurs
(tomorrow) was going to hit double figures. Now it turns out *Friday* will
be the milder day and *tomorrow* will be a few degrees above freezing.

All depends on the wind, I suppose. But I tend to think that there can only
be a finite number of combining factors that cause various wind
temperatures, levels and directions, and therefore someone should be able to
predict a little more accurately for 3-5 days ahead at least.

"Mentalguy2k8" wrote in message
...

Indeed, the forecast at the beginning of this week said that Thurs
(tomorrow) was going to hit double figures. Now it turns out *Friday* will
be the milder day and *tomorrow* will be a few degrees above freezing.

All depends on the wind, I suppose. But I tend to think that there can
only be a finite number of combining factors that cause various wind
temperatures, levels and directions, and therefore someone should be able
to predict a little more accurately for 3-5 days ahead at least.

Nope, it's changed again, a max of +2 tomorrow. Glad I scheduled my outdoor
activities for tomorrow on the strength of the 11 degrees that were
forecast.

On 12/12/12 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:
My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

Colin Bignell

This is useful

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...etstream;sess=

IF they have their predictions are right looks like cold and wet till
after xmas.

No northerly airflows..


--
Ineptocracy

(in-ep-toc-ra-cy) €“ a system of government where the least capable to
lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the
members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are
rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a
diminishing number of producers.

On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:43:02 +0000, The Natural Philosopher
wrote:


No northerly airflows..

I'm often puzzled by these "...erly" wind directions.
Logically a northerly wind would blow towards the North, i.e. in a
northerly direction, but it seems to refer to a wind blowing _from_
the North. Similarly for other directions.
I would call a wind blowing from the north as a North wind, rather
than Northerly.

--
Frank Erskine

On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 23:36:36 +0000, Frank Erskine wrote:

On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:43:02 +0000, The Natural Philosopher
wrote:

No northerly airflows..

I'm often puzzled by these "...erly" wind directions.
Logically a northerly wind would blow towards the North, i.e. in a
northerly direction, but it seems to refer to a wind blowing _from_
the North. Similarly for other directions.
I would call a wind blowing from the north as a North wind, rather
than Northerly.

When I was v. young I had trouble with this, especially as if one heads in a
Northerly direction...!
The other one is the direction of rotation of systems: it's given as the
rotation on the chart as seen from above, e.g. high pressure rotates
clockwise, but we live on the 'other side' of the system.
--
Peter.
The gods will stay away
whilst religions hold sway

On Wednesday, December 12, 2012 11:36:36 PM UTC, Frank Erskine wrote:
On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 19:43:02 +0000, The Natural Philosopher
wrote:

No northerly airflows..

I'm often puzzled by these "...erly" wind directions.
Logically a northerly wind would blow towards the North,
Why is _to_ more logical than _from_ ? It seems to me
that both are arbitrary choices.

northerly direction, but it seems to refer to a wind blowing _from_
the North. Similarly for other directions.

I would call a wind blowing from the north as a North wind, rather
than Northerly.

Oh, I would find that even more confusing. Having North wind mean
the exact opposite for Northerly wind seems like a really bad idea.

I just remember
"The North Wind (*) doth blow
and we shall have snow ..."

*: Yes I can see that the mnemonic agrees with your usage.

I do remember hearing a joke once about how the students in x university's meteorology department had gotten a wonderful new piece of equipment, guaranteed to tell the weather accurately with just a single glance.

It turned out to be a piece of string dangling out the window. If it was wet, it was raining. If it was blowing about, there was a wind in that direction. If it was straight and frozen, it was below zero.

That's about all I would trust to predict the weather, quite often the Met Office website has told me it's lovely and sunny outside at that very moment, when it's actually been bucketing down rain.

On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:
My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

Colin Bignell

Afraid recent experience suggests far worse than that. Quite often 5
minutes ahead is way out. Something like this - at 11:55 full sun is
predicted for 12:00, 15:00 and 18:00 - but is starts raining heavily,
with full, thick cloud cover at 11:30 and remains like that well into
the evening.

We have actually discussed the possibility of a bug in the weather
display (rather than their predictions as such) because so often what
they show two days ahead is more accurate than the day before or even,
all too frequently, on the day itself.

Have to admit, we have not logged everything and analysed the forecasts
- but that is certainly how it all too often feels.

--
Rod

On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 20:04:38 +0000, polygonum
wrote:

On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:
My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

Colin Bignell

Afraid recent experience suggests far worse than that. Quite often 5
minutes ahead is way out. Something like this - at 11:55 full sun is
predicted for 12:00, 15:00 and 18:00 - but is starts raining heavily,
with full, thick cloud cover at 11:30 and remains like that well into
the evening.

We have actually discussed the possibility of a bug in the weather
display (rather than their predictions as such) because so often what
they show two days ahead is more accurate than the day before or even,
all too frequently, on the day itself.

Have to admit, we have not logged everything and analysed the forecasts
- but that is certainly how it all too often feels.

I know weather forecasting is not an exact science, but I'm getting a
little cheesed off with the BBC's forecasts. Again this morning at
both 05:35 and 06:10 the forecast stated icy conditions for Eastern
England, yet here, near Boston, it's not freezing at all this morning
and the temperature is considerably higher than yesterday morning.

The weather, in fact, is much closer to what the website
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com says. Using this to display frost
risk for 16 days shows NO risk from 15/Dec/12 to 28/Dec/12 in my
immediate postcode, and I have been tracking the actual weather here
against this forecast for over a week. It looks like the forecast is
completely accurate. It predicted a rise in temp today and that is
exactly what has happened -- when the *BBC* is saying "freezing
conditions".

MM

On 14 Dec 2012, 06:59, MM wrote:
On Wed, 12 Dec 2012 20:04:38 +0000, polygonum
wrote:









On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
On 12/12/2012 19:00, MM wrote:
My 16-dayforecastfrom today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

Colin Bignell

Afraid recent experience suggests far worse than that. Quite often 5
minutes ahead is way out. Something like this - at 11:55 full sun is
predicted for 12:00, 15:00 and 18:00 - but is starts raining heavily,
with full, thick cloud cover at 11:30 and remains like that well into
the evening.

We have actually discussed the possibility of a bug in the weather
display (rather than their predictions as such) because so often what
they show two days ahead is more accurate than the day before or even,
all too frequently, on the day itself.

Have to admit, we have not logged everything and analysed the forecasts
- but that is certainly how it all too often feels.

I know weather forecasting is not an exact science, but I'm getting a
little cheesed off with the BBC's forecasts. Again this morning at
both 05:35 and 06:10 theforecaststated icy conditions for Eastern
England, yet here, near Boston, it's not freezing at all this morning
and the temperature is considerably higher than yesterday morning.

The weather, in fact, is much closer to what the websitehttp://www.theweatheroutlook.comsays. Using this to display frost
risk for 16 days shows NO risk from 15/Dec/12 to 28/Dec/12 in my
immediate postcode, and I have been tracking the actual weather here
against thisforecastfor over a week. It looks like theforecastis
completely accurate. It predicted a rise in temp today and that is
exactly what has happened *-- *when the *BBC* is saying "freezing
conditions".

MM

Well, now the stats are in! And the forecast was dead accurate. I
needn't have switched on the heating at all, after all the panic over
the Wallstar oil boiler. This was the 16-day forecast from
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com by the way, which didn't predict
~any~ frost for the Christmas week, the week I was away. And even
since Christmas the weather in the Boston area has remained very mild.

The Wallstar is now functioning perfectly, by the way.

On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

I race sailing dinghies.

Looks like this weekend will be off due to gales after last weekend's
flat calm but I'd agree with those numbers. If anything a little
generous And I always reckon that if they can't get the wind right then
everything else will be wrong, because it won't have blown to where they
thought.

fx looks at forecast Saturday forecast much better than last night's
chart would suggest...

Andy

Too many data points to calculate anything other than trends.

Brian

--
From the Sofa of Brian Gaff Reply address is active
"Andy Champ" wrote in message
...
On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

I race sailing dinghies.

Looks like this weekend will be off due to gales after last weekend's flat
calm but I'd agree with those numbers. If anything a little generous
And I always reckon that if they can't get the wind right then everything
else will be wrong, because it won't have blown to where they thought.

fx looks at forecast Saturday forecast much better than last night's
chart would suggest...

Andy

On 12/12/2012 21:27, Andy Champ wrote:
On 12/12/2012 19:34, Nightjar wrote:
Just about where cold winds from the Arctic usually hit first then.

I rate weather forecasts as follows:

Up to 6 hours ahead: almost always accurate
Up to 12 hours ahead: most often correct
Up to 24 hours ahead: more often than not correct
Up to 3 days ahead: sometimes a useful guide
Up to 5 days ahead: liable to change
More than 5 days ahead: unreliable.

I race sailing dinghies.

Looks like this weekend will be off due to gales after last weekend's
flat calm but I'd agree with those numbers. If anything a little
generous

Possibly. The ratings for up to three days was something I used when
evaluating METARs; forecasts for individual airfields, which probably
ought to be more accurate than general forecasts.

And I always reckon that if they can't get the wind right then
everything else will be wrong, because it won't have blown to where they
thought.

As with Michael Fish in 1987.

fx looks at forecast Saturday forecast much better than last night's
chart would suggest...

Rather you than me at this time of year.

Colin Bignell

And you really believe all that? hmm, as Eric used to say,

This boys a fool...

Brian

--
From the Sofa of Brian Gaff Reply address is active
"MM" wrote in message
...
My 16-day forecast from today gives night-time temps three or four
degrees above zero from 20/Dec/12 to 27/Dec/12!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The boiler is working far better since a new capacitor was fitted. 34
heating events since then and 8 lockouts.

But if the temps are above freezing, I won't have to worry.

Of course, forecasts can be wrong...

Anyone else want to confirm an expected "warm" Christmas? (This is the
Fens, BTW, roughly midway between Spalding and King's Lynn.)

MM