"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one
inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and
leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of
that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the
same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly
knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what
many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of
varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it
will continue to.

"This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and
around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive
Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning
to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the
undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally
tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I
suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if
they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

"Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support
the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth
and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings
will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see
oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area
around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly?
....it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware
of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere
exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore
directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the
worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the
inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that
could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can
think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it
is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels
a day of raw oil or more.

http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2...ow-unstoppable

Best Regards

Tom.


--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 03:30:06 -0700, "Azotic" wrote
the following:

"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one
inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and
leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of
that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the
same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly
knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what
many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of
varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it
will continue to.

So why can't they (simply pull the BOP off and broken casing out
and do a mid-hole kill at the break? The massive oil flow will keep
the sea floor somewhat out of the way.

Or did BP just kill all sea life and possibly mankind?

--
Peace of mind is that mental condition in which you have accepted the worst.
-- Lin Yutang

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 03:30:06 -0700, "Azotic"
wrote:

"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one
inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and
leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of
that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the
same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly
knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what
many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of
varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it
will continue to.

"This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and
around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive
Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning
to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the
undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

I think that you are ignoring quite a few things. Typically wells that
blow out around the casing, and there have been quite a number of
them, do not "destroy the foundation" as you think. They simply blow
out a fisher and vent. Secondly the "foundation" is in effect a
tapered pile reaching something like 15,000 feet into the earth. At
the surface it is a two foot column with a wall thickness of 8 inches
of cement and steel.

In addition BP is energetically drilling two relief wells which when
completed will be used to relieve pressure in the hole and serve as a
conduit for pumping cement into the faulty well to permanently seal
it.

To be frank the attempts that BP has made to date with the chambers to
drop over the well head are probably greatly in response to political
pressure as I'm fairly certain that no one in BP expected them to
actually cure the problem and simply hoped that they might catch some
of the oil and calm things down until they can get the permanent
solution in place.

And I don't know what you have been reading but I can tell you that
guys in the drilling business are certainly circulating some pretty
specific data on the BP drilling program, what were the original
problems, what was done when they finished the well and what was going
on when the well kicked.

In fact I posted, or thought I did, a short description of the
completion of the well and what the rig was doing. Probably written by
someone who knew one of the BP drillers or engineers or had been on
the rig about the time they completed the hole.

Cheers,

John D. Slocomb
(jdslocombatgmail)

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 22:06:46 +0700, J. D. Slocomb
wrote:
snip
I think that you are ignoring quite a few things. Typically wells that
blow out around the casing, and there have been quite a number of
them, do not "destroy the foundation" as you think. They simply blow
out a fisher and vent. Secondly the "foundation" is in effect a
tapered pile reaching something like 15,000 feet into the earth. At
the surface it is a two foot column with a wall thickness of 8 inches
of cement and steel.

In addition BP is energetically drilling two relief wells which when
completed will be used to relieve pressure in the hole and serve as a
conduit for pumping cement into the faulty well to permanently seal
it.

To be frank the attempts that BP has made to date with the chambers to
drop over the well head are probably greatly in response to political
pressure as I'm fairly certain that no one in BP expected them to
actually cure the problem and simply hoped that they might catch some
of the oil and calm things down until they can get the permanent
solution in place.

And I don't know what you have been reading but I can tell you that
guys in the drilling business are certainly circulating some pretty
specific data on the BP drilling program, what were the original
problems, what was done when they finished the well and what was going
on when the well kicked.
snip
==========
This is most likely good advice about the
specific/isolated/basic problem of an oil well blowout at
5,000 feet.

Unfortunately however, as a nation we are now far beyond
this specific incident/problem, namely a total lack of
credibility/accountability/capability of either the Federal
government or BP. The available information indicates BP
was in a continual quest for immediate profits, continually
"cut corners," and got caught (as always happens). FWIW --
This is not the first instance, but the third, after the
major pipeline leaks in Alaska caused by a total lack of
maintenance, and the explosion in the BP refinery in Texas
City, Texas that killed 15 and maimed hundreds.
[What happened to 3 strikes and your out?]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_C...nery_explosion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11696601/
http://www.marke****ch.com/story/ala...-ok-2010-05-29

The secrecy surrounding the mitigation efforts and clean-up
activities by BP, aided and abetted by the Federal
government's no go/ no fly zones around the blow-out site,
and attempts to keep people away from even the beaches can
only result in the assumption that things are far worse than
admitted.

The refusal of the Federal government to use the proffered
expertise and equipment from other oil producing countries
and their prevention of the use of oil recovery barges
indicates either serious "hidden agenda" problems or gross
stupidity, neither of which can be tolerated in a modern
society.

IMNSHO the Federal government via the MMS shares
accountability with BP for this mess in that the oil
companies were allowed entirely too much scope and room to
cut corners. Given the extremely serious potential, and now
actual environmental impact, and high on-the-job danger
levels [11 killed, more maimed], it would appear that the
MMS should have been specifying what practices *MUST* be
followed, what type approved equipment *MUST* be used, e.g.
no jury-rigged blowout preventers, and what drilling
practices, e.g. double wall well casing, cementing
[verification] tests, *MUST* be used. Deep water drilling
appears to offer much the same levels of risks and benefits
as nuclear power and civil aviation, and there appears to be
no logical or plausible justification that similar
governmental oversight and "best practices" should not be
imposed, backed by stiff civil and corporate/individual
penalties.
--

-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

Doomsday scenario. Or, or , or, , , , , that well reaches into the "mother pool" of oil underlying
the entire G.O.M. and it will continue to flow until the pool is depleted. Of course, by that time
the economy of all the US coastal states will have been totally wrecked; with the nation's economy
in ruins as well. We will have no fossil-fueled defenses to fight with and none of our allies will
come to our aid. The Govt. will not have been able to float enough stimulus to keep the economy
going and we will be bought out (or invaded) by China or some other rapidly rising 3rd world
country. So, it will be bye, bye US as we know it.

Bob (nightmares are us) Swinney



"Azotic" wrote in message ...
"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one
inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and
leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of
that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the
same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly
knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what
many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of
varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it
will continue to.

"This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and
around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive
Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning
to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the
undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally
tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I
suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if
they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

"Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support
the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth
and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings
will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see
oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area
around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly?
....it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware
of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere
exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore
directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the
worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the
inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that
could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can
think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it
is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels
a day of raw oil or more.

http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2...ow-unstoppable

Best Regards

Tom.


--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 16:37:06 -0500, "Robert Swinney"
wrote the following:

Doomsday scenario. Or, or , or, , , , , that well reaches into the "mother pool" of oil underlying
the entire G.O.M. and it will continue to flow until the pool is depleted. Of course, by that time
the economy of all the US coastal states will have been totally wrecked; with the nation's economy
in ruins as well. We will have no fossil-fueled defenses to fight with and none of our allies will
come to our aid. The Govt. will not have been able to float enough stimulus to keep the economy
going and we will be bought out (or invaded) by China or some other rapidly rising 3rd world
country. So, it will be bye, bye US as we know it.

Hmmm, since it won't be -just- the USA, have we found the real source
of our 2012 end? Hell, the Mayans didn't even USE oil.

--
Peace of mind is that mental condition in which you have accepted the worst.
-- Lin Yutang

On 2010-06-20, Robert Swinney wrote:
Doomsday scenario. Or, or , or, , , , , that well reaches into the
"mother pool" of oil underlying the entire G.O.M. and it will
continue to flow until the pool is depleted. Of course, by that
time the economy of all the US coastal states will have been totally
wrecked; with the nation's economy in ruins as well. We will have no
fossil-fueled defenses to fight with and none of our allies will
come to our aid. The Govt. will not have been able to float enough
stimulus to keep the economy going and we will be bought out (or
invaded) by China or some other rapidly rising 3rd world country.
So, it will be bye, bye US as we know it.

At least ammo is cheap and plentiful at my local Wal-mart, as I
discovered when buying a brick of .22LR ammunition yesterday.

i

Not so easy to do just that so deep in the ocean.

And I don't think the casing and drill stem will just pull out so easy.
the broken and not functional (so we think) and only easy access point to
the tube might be clamping down on the pipe and stem or just the pipe
and if it releases - might open up even more. The crushing blow that
didn't stem the flow might be 80% of the flow stopped or 20% stopped...

And it isn't 'easy' to just take off. Otherwise it would have been
blown off by the high pressure moving through various side pipes.

Who really knows. Once release wells are cemented in - I rather expect
a recovery attempt of that unit is under order. Why did it fail.

It was the insurance policy in hardware that failed.

Martin H. Eastburn
@ home at Lions' Lair with our computer lionslair at consolidated dot net
"Our Republic and the Press will Rise or Fall Together": Joseph Pulitzer
TSRA: Endowed; NRA LOH & Patron Member, Golden Eagle, Patriot's Medal.
NRA Second Amendment Task Force Charter Charter Founder
IHMSA and NRA Metallic Silhouette maker & member. http://lufkinced.com/

On 6/20/2010 9:48 AM, Larry Jaques wrote:
On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 03:30:06 -0700, wrote
the following:

"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one
inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and
leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of
that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the
same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly
knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what
many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of
varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it
will continue to.

So why can't they (simply pull the BOP off and broken casing out
and do a mid-hole kill at the break? The massive oil flow will keep
the sea floor somewhat out of the way.

Or did BP just kill all sea life and possibly mankind?

--
Peace of mind is that mental condition in which you have accepted the worst.
-- Lin Yutang

Regardless of the explanations....

I put this photo up - because it scares the hell out of me!


http://www.home.earthlink.net/~cavelamb/proof.htm

FIRST PIC ON THE PAGE

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 03:30:06 -0700, "Azotic"
wrote:

"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one
inescapable conclusion.
snip

FYI -- And a cold o-ring caused the space shuttle to blow
up. For want of a nail...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/21/us...er=rss&emc=rss

Failure of Rig’s Last Line of Defense Tied to Myriad Factors
This article is by David Barstow, Laura Dodd, James Glanz,
Stephanie Saul and Ian Urbina.
snip
They wondered if the blades had by chance closed uselessly
on one of the nearly indestructible joints that connect
drilling pipe — a significant bit of misfortune, given a
decision years before to outfit the Deepwater Horizon’s
blowout preventer with just one blind shear ram when other
rigs were already beginning to use two of them to guard
against just this possibility.
snip
As it turns out, records and interviews show, blind shear
rams can be surprisingly vulnerable. There are many ways for
them to fail, some unavoidable, some exacerbated by the
stunning water depths at which oil companies have begun to
explore.

But they also can be rendered powerless by the failure of a
single part, a point underscored in a confidential report
that scrutinized the reliability of the Deepwater Horizon’s
blowout preventer. The report, from 2000, concluded that the
greatest vulnerability by far on the entire blowout
preventer was one of the small shuttle valves leading to the
blind shear ram. If this valve jammed or leaked, the report
warned, the ram’s blades would not budge.
snip
Using the world’s most authoritative database of oil rig
accidents, a Norwegian company, Det Norske Veritas, focused
on some 15,000 wells drilled off North America and in the
North Sea from 1980 to 2006.

It found 11 cases where crews on deepwater rigs had lost
control of their wells and then activated blowout preventers
to prevent a spill. In only six of those cases were the
wells brought under control, leading the researchers to
conclude that in actual practice, blowout preventers used by
deepwater rigs had a “failure” rate of 45 percent.
snip
Using the world’s most authoritative database of oil rig
accidents, a Norwegian company, Det Norske Veritas, focused
on some 15,000 wells drilled off North America and in the
North Sea from 1980 to 2006.

It found 11 cases where crews on deepwater rigs had lost
control of their wells and then activated blowout preventers
to prevent a spill. In only six of those cases were the
wells brought under control, leading the researchers to
conclude that in actual practice, blowout preventers used by
deepwater rigs had a “failure” rate of 45 percent.
snip
The consultants said the Deepwater Horizon’s blind shear ram
was vulnerable to “single-point failure.” In other words,
the breakdown of just one part could result in a
catastrophic failure. The consultants focused on one of
several T-shaped shuttle valves, which control the flow of
pressurized hydraulic fluid that pushes the shear ram’s
blades together.

This particular valve has no backup, so if it gets stuck or
leaks hydraulic fluid, disaster beckons. In fact, the
consultants concluded that this one shuttle valve
represented 56 percent of the blowout preventer’s “failure
likelihood.”
snip
Yet in April, as BP prepared to seal the well for later
production, the company took what numerous industry experts
and fellow oil executives say were highly questionable
shortcuts. These included using a well design that presented
few barriers to high-pressure gas rising up; skipping a
crucial $128,000 test of the quality of the cementing; and
failing to install capping devices at the top of the well
that could also have kept gas from lifting a critical seal.
snip
At 7:30 a.m., a submersible cut a firing pin on the blowout
preventer, simulating the rig’s pulling free. This time, the
blowout preventer shuddered, as if struggling to come back
to life. “L.M.R.P. rocked & settled,” one note says,
referring to the top half of the blowout preventer. But
after a few moments, as oil continued to flow, it became
clear that this, too, had failed.
snip
Finally, seven long days after the explosion, operators of
the underwater robots managed to repair the leak on the
blind shear ram and apply 5,000 pounds per square inch of
hydraulic pressure on its blades. This was nearly double the
pressure it typically takes to shear pipe.

A BP report tersely described the results: “No indication of
movement.”
==============


--

-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 11:17:24 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:
snip
Unfortunately however, as a nation we are now far beyond
this specific incident/problem, namely a total lack of
credibility/accountability/capability of either the Federal
government or BP.
snip
More info about where your taxes are going and how you are
paying the corporations' taxes too. Note that this is an
Australian paper.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world...0704-zvul.html

A slick argument amid the oil subsidies
DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI
July 5, 2010

WHEN the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform set off the
worst oil spill in American history, it was flying the flag
of the Marshall Islands. Registering there allowed the rig's
owner to reduce significantly its American taxes.

The owner, Transocean, moved its corporate headquarters from
Houston to the Cayman Islands in 1999 and then to
Switzerland in 2008, manoeuvres that also helped it avoid
taxes.

At the same time, BP was reaping sizeable tax benefits from
leasing the rig. According to a letter sent in June to a US
Senate committee, the company used a tax break for the oil
industry to write off 70 per cent of the rent for Deepwater
Horizon - a deduction of more than $US225,000 a day since
the lease began.
snip
But an examination of the American tax code indicates that
oil production is among the most heavily subsidised
businesses, with tax breaks available at virtually every
stage of the exploration and extraction process.

According to the most recent study by the Congressional
Budget Office, released in 2005, capital investments such as
oil field leases and drilling equipment are taxed at an
effective rate of 9 per cent, significantly lower than the
overall rate of 25 per cent for businesses in general and
lower than virtually any other industry.

==And for many small and mid-size oil companies, the tax on
capital investments is so low that it is more than
eliminated by various credits. These companies' returns on
those investments are often higher after taxes than
before.==
snip
--

-- Unka George (George McDuffee)
...............................
The past is a foreign country;
they do things differently there.
L. P. Hartley (1895-1972), British author.
The Go-Between, Prologue (1953).

On Sun, 04 Jul 2010 12:42:19 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:

On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 11:17:24 -0500, F. George McDuffee
wrote:
snip
Unfortunately however, as a nation we are now far beyond
this specific incident/problem, namely a total lack of
credibility/accountability/capability of either the Federal
government or BP.
snip
More info about where your taxes are going and how you are
paying the corporations' taxes too. Note that this is an
Australian paper.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world...0704-zvul.html

A slick argument amid the oil subsidies
DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI
July 5, 2010

WHEN the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform set off the
worst oil spill in American history, it was flying the flag
of the Marshall Islands. Registering there allowed the rig's
owner to reduce significantly its American taxes.

The owner, Transocean, moved its corporate headquarters from
Houston to the Cayman Islands in 1999 and then to
Switzerland in 2008, manoeuvres that also helped it avoid
taxes.

At the same time, BP was reaping sizeable tax benefits from
leasing the rig. According to a letter sent in June to a US
Senate committee, the company used a tax break for the oil
industry to write off 70 per cent of the rent for Deepwater
Horizon - a deduction of more than $US225,000 a day since
the lease began.
snip
But an examination of the American tax code indicates that
oil production is among the most heavily subsidised
businesses, with tax breaks available at virtually every
stage of the exploration and extraction process.

According to the most recent study by the Congressional
Budget Office, released in 2005, capital investments such as
oil field leases and drilling equipment are taxed at an
effective rate of 9 per cent, significantly lower than the
overall rate of 25 per cent for businesses in general and
lower than virtually any other industry.

==And for many small and mid-size oil companies, the tax on
capital investments is so low that it is more than
eliminated by various credits. These companies' returns on
those investments are often higher after taxes than
before.==
snip


The oil companies argument is, of course, that they are developing and
selling a product with a finite life. and the day that the first well
is drilled on a lease is the day that the value of their asset - the
oil in the ground - starts to deplete.

Rather as if tomorrow you wake up tomorrow to realize that you will
only be allowed to sell 54,000 more whatever's unless you buy a new
piece of land, erect new buildings, and built all new machines.

Granted that the oil companies have been highly adroit in talking the
government out of depletion allowances and many other safe guards ....
but then so have the dairymen, the wheat farmers , and just about
everyone else that has figured out how to do it.

Just like "same sex marriages" let some people file joint tax returns,
I suppose.


Cheers,

John D. Slocomb
(jdslocombatgmail)