F. George McDuffee wrote:
....
One economist that saw what was coming ...

There's ALWAYS some economist that sees something coming. I.e., there
are enough economists with enough different opinions that, AFTER THE
FACT, you can find one who was right! Always.

Same with financial analysts/advisors/managers.

Bob

In article ,
Bob Engelhardt wrote:

F. George McDuffee wrote:
...
One economist that saw what was coming ...

There's ALWAYS some economist that sees something coming. I.e., there
are enough economists with enough different opinions that, AFTER THE
FACT, you can find one who was right! Always.

Same with financial analysts/advisors/managers.

Same with pundits in general. Although after some time one can see
which ones do seem better at predicting likely outcomes. But none are
good at predicting when predicted discontinuities (like crashes) will
happen, even if they did predict the discontinuity.


This reminds me of a scam I heard of in the 1970s (pre Internet), from a
colleague who was very interested in betting on the ponys:

There was a fellow that started a horseracing tip sheet by offering a
few free copies to a large mailing list gleaned from the horseracing
world.

The first mailing was divided into two groups. Half predicted that a
given race would be won by horse A, and half by horse B (or some binary
equivalent - I no longer recall the exact details).

So half the recipients of the first mailing see that the tip was good.

The second mailing was also divided, as before, and half of the first
half see that the second tip was in the money.

Likewise, the third mailing.

Now, 1/8 of the initially very large mailing list think this tipsheet is
genius (3/3 correct), and signed up for a very expensive subscription.
Another 3/8 of the list think the tipsheet is pretty good (having been
2/3 correct) and also sign up. This totals to one half of the original
mailing list.

Fortunes have been made on less.

Joe Gwinn

On Sep 19, 8:32*am, Joseph Gwinn wrote:

The first mailing was divided into two groups. *Half predicted that a
given race would be won by horse A, and half by horse B (or some binary
equivalent - I no longer recall the exact details).

So half the recipients of the first mailing see that the tip was good.

The best version of this was the guy who would predict the sex of
babies by mail for a fee (the parents filled in a simple form and
mailed it to him). He refunded any wrong predictions in full.

IMO the smartest man I ever heard of.

In article
,
N Morrison wrote:

On Sep 19, 8:32*am, Joseph Gwinn wrote:

The first mailing was divided into two groups. *Half predicted that a
given race would be won by horse A, and half by horse B (or some binary
equivalent - I no longer recall the exact details).

So half the recipients of the first mailing see that the tip was good.

The best version of this was the guy who would predict the sex of
babies by mail for a fee (the parents filled in a simple form and
mailed it to him). He refunded any wrong predictions in full.

IMO the smartest man I ever heard of.

Certainly knew how to tax stupidity. What year was this?

Probably always predicted that it would be a boy, or a girl, it doesn't
matter.

Joe Gwinn

On Sat, 19 Sep 2009 08:45:18 -0700, N Morrison wrote:
On Sep 19, 8:32*am, Joseph Gwinn wrote:

The first mailing was divided into two groups. *Half predicted that a
given race would be won by horse A, and half by horse B (or some binary
equivalent - I no longer recall the exact details).

So half the recipients of the first mailing see that the tip was good.

The best version of this was the guy who would predict the sex of babies
by mail for a fee (the parents filled in a simple form and mailed it to
him). He refunded any wrong predictions in full.

IMO the smartest man I ever heard of.

I don't know if you've ever seen the "Frazier" teevee show - His dad's
physical therapist, who doubles as the housekeeper, is named Daphne,
and she's from Manchester, and she's hot. She claims to be "a little
bit psychic". Somebody got pregnant, and she asked if they'd checked
its sex, and they said no, they want to be surprised. She goes ahead
and says, "Sometimes I can predict its gender - I'm usually right about
half the time."

Cheers!
Rich