Ed, I had to put this here to see what your take is on the conclusions:

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/021306Roberts.shtml

Thanks for any and all opinions and comments.

Regards - Jim


--
==================================================
please reply to:
JRR(zero) at pkmfgvm4 (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com
==================================================

I'm concerned. I don't see any real job growth in our town. Except at
McDonalds, Walmart, etc.
Ponder some additional facts:
Over the past four years consumer spending and residential construction

have together accounted for 90% of the total growth in our GDP. And,
over
two-fifths (2/5) of the private sector jobs were created in the real
estate
and mortgage brokerage sector.
Those jobs were created by inflated real estate prices, low interest
rates and people borowing the (inflated) equity out of their homes and
spending it.
-
Mike

Likely one gigantic financial Proctological Violation in the offing.

Nowhere is the real estate more insane than in NYC.
You could get top dollar for a plumbing-less shack w/ an outhouse, just so
some yupsterized nitwit could say they live in Manhattan.
There are stories of people living in their U-haul storage lockers.

Oh yeah, recouping college investment--what a fukn over-priced 4-year 3-ring
Dog&Pony show dat is... Good preparation for tea-party chit-chat, I spose.
--
Mr. P.V.'d
formerly Droll Troll
"mlcorson" wrote in message
oups.com...
I'm concerned. I don't see any real job growth in our town. Except at
McDonalds, Walmart, etc.
Ponder some additional facts:
Over the past four years consumer spending and residential construction

have together accounted for 90% of the total growth in our GDP. And,
over
two-fifths (2/5) of the private sector jobs were created in the real
estate
and mortgage brokerage sector.
Those jobs were created by inflated real estate prices, low interest
rates and people borowing the (inflated) equity out of their homes and
spending it.
-
Mike

Proctologically Violated©® wrote:
Likely one gigantic financial Proctological Violation in the offing.

Nowhere is the real estate more insane than in NYC.

Oh yes it is. Just come visit SF.

--
Abrasha
http://www.abrasha.com

"Abrasha" wrote in message
. ..
Proctologically Violated©® wrote:
Likely one gigantic financial Proctological Violation in the offing.

Nowhere is the real estate more insane than in NYC.

Oh yes it is. Just come visit SF.


Try Downtown Tokyo or Hong Kong!

"RAM³" wrote:

"Abrasha" wrote in message
...
Proctologically Violated©® wrote:
Likely one gigantic financial Proctological Violation in the offing.

Nowhere is the real estate more insane than in NYC.

Oh yes it is. Just come visit SF.

Try Downtown Tokyo or Hong Kong!

The gentleman from Las Vegas concedes the point to the Gentlemen from
Asia.

"jim rozen" wrote in message
...
Ed, I had to put this here to see what your take is on the conclusions:

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/021306Roberts.shtml

Thanks for any and all opinions and comments.

Regards - Jim


--
==================================================
please reply to:
JRR(zero) at pkmfgvm4 (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com
==================================================

I read an article gleaned from the BLS numbers listing the top 25 jobs for
the next eight years.

The biggest growth was in

Medical
(Good prospects for RNs, the rest of the medical jobs were for bed pan
cleaners)
Teaching
Sales
House keeping
Food service

The future looks rosy.

Paul K. Dickman

"jim rozen" wrote in message
...
Ed, I had to put this here to see what your take is on the conclusions:

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/021306Roberts.shtml

Thanks for any and all opinions and comments.

Regards - Jim

I don't know, Jim. Somebody posted that link last week and I read it then.
It sounds reasonable, and I've heard some of the same from Krugman. But I'd
want to go track down his numbers myself before drawing any conclusions.

Unfortunately, I don't have time for that these days, since I'm not working
at home anymore.

--
Ed Huntress

--Oh, *that* Ed H., heh.
--
"Steamboat Ed" Haas : Living on the fringes of
Hacking the Trailing Edge! : most good bell curves...
http://www.nmpproducts.com/intro.htm
---Decks a-wash in a sea of words---

"steamer" wrote in message
...
--Oh, *that* Ed H., heh.

Well, don't let that stop you. What do you think about it?

--
the other Ed H.

--Yah, well, I couldn't catch a job if it bit me! ;-)

--
"Steamboat Ed" Haas : Living on the fringes of
Hacking the Trailing Edge! : most good bell curves...
http://www.nmpproducts.com/intro.htm
---Decks a-wash in a sea of words---

On 22 Feb 2006 13:09:58 -0800, jim rozen
wrote:

Ed, I had to put this here to see what your take is on the conclusions:

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/021306Roberts.shtml

Thanks for any and all opinions and comments.

Regards - Jim
=====================================
Easy answer is that things are getting better and better, and
globalization is a "win-win" situation == for the people that
employ the economists *IN THE SHORT TERM* ==

Most telling lines a

"Little wonder engineering enrollments are shrinking. There are
no jobs for graduates. The talk about engineering shortages is
absolute ignorance. There are several hundred thousand American
engineers who are unemployed and have been for years. No student
wants a degree that is nothing but a ticket to a soup line. Many
engineers have written to me that they cannot even get Wal-Mart
jobs because their education makes them over-qualified."

and

"There are now hundreds of thousands of Americans who will never
recover their investment in their university education."

If this was the only article on this topic it could be dismissed
as flake or "whack-job" output, but the same warning is being
overtly and tacitly sounded in sector after sector.

For example, medical costs are now projected to reach 20% of GPD
by 2015. This is not possible, and the medical [payment] system
will collapse before then.

Another example is that the U.S. government is now tapping the
G-fund or governmental employee pension fund to avoid exceeding
the debt limit.

As the U.S. rapidly approaches the status of a third world
country (one example is the rapid growth in the GINI
coefficient), the only recourse will be the establishment and
growth of an "alternative" or unofficial economy beyond the
knowledge and reach of the people and institutions that are
killing the official one for their own profit and amusement,
through the "death of a thousand cuts."

Uncle George

Has anyone noticed that the mainstream conservatives are starting to beat up
on the Shrub? This guy was a Raegan Treasury appointee and former Reaganite
Bruce Bartlett's new book "Imposter" really cuts him to pieces on the tax
cuts and the deficit.

I have read a number of recent articles by big time Repubs and war hawks
that say he has really screwed the pooch on almost everything.

There may soon come a day when only the bible thumpers and Gunner will like
him.

--
Glenn Ashmore

I'm building a 45' cutter in strip/composite. Watch my progress (or lack
there of) at: http://www.rutuonline.com
Shameless Commercial Division: http://www.spade-anchor-us.com

"jim rozen" wrote in message
...
Ed, I had to put this here to see what your take is on the conclusions:

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/021306Roberts.shtml

Thanks for any and all opinions and comments.

Regards - Jim


--
==================================================
please reply to:
JRR(zero) at pkmfgvm4 (dot) vnet (dot) ibm (dot) com
==================================================

Glenn Ashmore wrote:
Has anyone noticed that the mainstream conservatives are starting to beat up
on the Shrub? This guy was a Raegan Treasury appointee and former Reaganite
Bruce Bartlett's new book "Imposter" really cuts him to pieces on the tax
cuts and the deficit.

I have read a number of recent articles by big time Repubs and war hawks
that say he has really screwed the pooch on almost everything.

There may soon come a day when only the bible thumpers and Gunner will like
him.

You mean that Ross Perot was right when he said there would be a "giant
sucking sound" which would be all our jobs leaving. Come to think of
it, wasn't that before Bush?

"Glenn Ashmore" wrote

Has anyone noticed that the mainstream conservatives
are starting to beat up on the Shrub?


Well, it just goes to show that not even mainstream conservatives can be
fooled forever.


There may soon come a day when only the bible thumpers
and Gunner will like him.


Don't underestimate Karl Rove. He's a smarmy little ****, but he is good.
If there should be another 9/11 next week, he would spin it as proof that
Dick and Dubya need more power, more secrecy, and more tax cuts.

Speaking of which, I would purely love to know: when Dubya came out
swinging his veto bat over the ports brouhaha, was it because he _didn't_
check with Rove first, or because he _did_?

-- TP

"tonyp" wrote in message
...

"Glenn Ashmore" wrote

Has anyone noticed that the mainstream conservatives
are starting to beat up on the Shrub?


With the real proposal of having Mexican workers unload Chinese goods in UAE
run ports on American soil, I think a lot of "mainstream conservatives" are
going to start swimming both directions.

What in the **** are these people thinking?

Steve

On Thu, 23 Feb 2006 10:15:12 -0800, "Steve B"
wrote:
snip
What in the **** are these people thinking?
snip
It is mainly a "branding" problem. Both the Republican and
Democratic parties in the U.S. are now "under new international
oriented management/ownership."

Like the ads used to say "it's not your father's Oldsmobile,"
(which may be the main reason Oldsmobile is no longer in
business)....

Remember what happened to Bridgeport Milling Machine when the
company was taken over [or sold out].

We have disipated in less than 20 years what it took our
ancestors over 200 years to accumulate thus proving the advice
"When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that
virtue is not hereditary." Thomas Paine (1737-1809), Common
Sense, ch. 4 (1776

Uncle George

A couple of thoughts:

1) I am ashamed of myself that for the last 30 years I ignored and even
rationalized the textile jobs, auto jobs, etc. all leaving, thinking that
the areas I was involved and interested in - high tech, software, and R&D -
were somehow immune. I was naively elitist, blind, and stupid.

2) I find it amazing how fast it all happened in my arena. I place a lot of
blame on IBM and their false Y2K hysteria. In raising this canard, they
forced IT departments to overspend in '99, and then not spend in '00.
Besides contributing to the NASDAQ crash and Internet bubble bursting, what
this did was make these corporate IT guys realize that they didn't need the
software and services they had previously been happy to pay for every year,
and they stopped buying. By the end of '02, the software industry was gone
(other than Bill and the penguin people).

3) There are more English speakers in India than there are in the US. It is
not just technology that is leaving, it is all work not requiring a
geo-presence. A huge amount of paralegal work has already gone, for
example, not only because it is cheaper but because they work while we
sleep, so it is done faster as well. The IRS is shutting down much of the
Austin facility by the end of the summer and my file clerk position is going
out of the country. This is truly ironic - US income taxes are being
processed outside the country.

The worst thing is that I see no way out of this fix. If there was a
solution, England would have thought of it. I can't imagine a political way
out, nor can I see any change in the market. We are doomed.

I have to work for 16 more years. This is roughly the equivalent amount of
time I spent in high tech, so essentially, I am starting my career all over
again. What should I do? What would you do if you were starting over again
today? I really am stuck...

"Emmo" wrote in message
...

I have to work for 16 more years. This is roughly the equivalent amount
of
time I spent in high tech, so essentially, I am starting my career all
over
again. What should I do? What would you do if you were starting over
again
today? I really am stuck...

I'm very concerned for a lot of other people but I've never been concerned
for myself. I just changed less than two years ago (from writing about
metalworking to medical editing) and I'm 57.

You can change. Stay loose, assess your skills, read (online, if you want)
about how to assess and transfer your skills to another area. Then start
counting jobs posted by category on your favorite employment websites.

And keep your confidence up. You didn't get where you are for nothing.

--
Ed Huntress

PS, I have to work another 16 years, too. My son is going to college next
year. d8-)

As for Bush and the conservatives, the real conservatives gave up on him
long ago. From the Wall St Journal, last October - ""...George W. Bush has
not governed as a conservative (amnesty for illegal immigrants, reckless
spending that will ultimately undo his tax cuts, signing a campaign finance
bill even while maintaining its unconstitutionality). This George Bush, like
his father, is showing himself to be indifferent, if not actively hostile,
to conservative values."

As I have said before, Bush is no longer the issue. He will never run for
office again. People who waste time attacking or supporting him are missing
the point - who will come next? All of you who dislike Bush - are you going
to support Hillary? Who is the Republican candidate going to be?

Great interview with Newt in this weekend's Wall St Journal, who pointed out
that the Clintons only ever lost one election - he believes that Hillary is
definitely electable...

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 02:01:11 GMT, "Emmo" wrote:

As for Bush and the conservatives, the real conservatives gave up on him
long ago. From the Wall St Journal, last October - ""...George W. Bush has
not governed as a conservative (amnesty for illegal immigrants, reckless
spending that will ultimately undo his tax cuts, signing a campaign finance
bill even while maintaining its unconstitutionality). This George Bush, like
his father, is showing himself to be indifferent, if not actively hostile,
to conservative values."

As I have said before, Bush is no longer the issue. He will never run for
office again. People who waste time attacking or supporting him are missing
the point - who will come next? All of you who dislike Bush - are you going
to support Hillary? Who is the Republican candidate going to be?

Great interview with Newt in this weekend's Wall St Journal, who pointed out
that the Clintons only ever lost one election - he believes that Hillary is
definitely electable...


Condi in '08!!

Gunner



"A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
- Proverbs 22:3

Thanx for your encouragement. My son is a freshman MechE student at UT, so
yes, I have to find meaningful work...

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
"Emmo" wrote in message
...

I have to work for 16 more years. This is roughly the equivalent amount
of
time I spent in high tech, so essentially, I am starting my career all
over
again. What should I do? What would you do if you were starting over
again
today? I really am stuck...

I'm very concerned for a lot of other people but I've never been concerned
for myself. I just changed less than two years ago (from writing about
metalworking to medical editing) and I'm 57.

You can change. Stay loose, assess your skills, read (online, if you want)
about how to assess and transfer your skills to another area. Then start
counting jobs posted by category on your favorite employment websites.

And keep your confidence up. You didn't get where you are for nothing.

--
Ed Huntress

PS, I have to work another 16 years, too. My son is going to college next
year. d8-)

"Emmo" wrote in message
...
Thanx for your encouragement. My son is a freshman MechE student at UT,
so
yes, I have to find meaningful work...

Good luck to you, Emmo. Whatever you do, stay active in your search. It
appears to me that the most dangerous thing is to withdraw and let your
confidence get shaken. I've seen it happen to a few people. The ones who get
over the hump keep charging ahead, making an assertive effort to relocate
their talents.

--
Ed Huntress

I don't want to rain on his (or your) parade, but I suggest that
you contact the NSPE
http://www.nspe.org/
and determine what the market for ME's is before you pour any
more money down this particular rat hole. The NSF has "tub
thumped" the so-called shortage of scientists, engineers and
technicians for years, and for years we have had a gross surplus
of scientists, engineers and technicians, unless you are counting
only the ones willing to work for minimum wage and no overtime.

Fortunately, the first year of college is about the same for all
majors, so not much (if anything) is lost at this point. I
suggest a combination of a skeptical [not cynical] liberal arts
BA and assuming he is mechanically inclined, a certificate in a
vocation such as welding, HVAC, electrician, that he can earn a
living at. HVAC and electrician have the advantage that it is
still practicable for a person to work for a few years for
someone in the trade to get practical experience and accumulate
their tools, and then open their own business. In general, this
has not been true of machining for some time and welding is
rapidly becoming a trade where you must work for someone else.

Uncle George



On Mon, 27 Feb 2006 05:00:39 GMT, "Emmo"
wrote:

Thanx for your encouragement. My son is a freshman MechE student at UT, so
yes, I have to find meaningful work...

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
"Emmo" wrote in message
...

I have to work for 16 more years. This is roughly the equivalent amount
of
time I spent in high tech, so essentially, I am starting my career all
over
again. What should I do? What would you do if you were starting over
again
today? I really am stuck...

I'm very concerned for a lot of other people but I've never been concerned
for myself. I just changed less than two years ago (from writing about
metalworking to medical editing) and I'm 57.

You can change. Stay loose, assess your skills, read (online, if you want)
about how to assess and transfer your skills to another area. Then start
counting jobs posted by category on your favorite employment websites.

And keep your confidence up. You didn't get where you are for nothing.

--
Ed Huntress

PS, I have to work another 16 years, too. My son is going to college next
year. d8-)

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 00:17:19 GMT, "Emmo"
wrote:
snip
I have to work for 16 more years. This is roughly the equivalent amount of
time I spent in high tech, so essentially, I am starting my career all over
again. What should I do? What would you do if you were starting over again
today? I really am stuck...
snip
I was lucky enough to be adjunct teaching when the HD truck
market [and their need for chasiss/brake components] went
belly-up. I segued into full-time Academia, completed my
doctorate, and finished out in administration. Unfortunatly,
academia is now contracting because of lack of any [real] demand.

What we are seeing is a savage game of economic musical chairs.

The best survival bet appears to be some sort of trade that
exists in both the formal and informal markets, with the
potential for "off the books income," such as HVAC, plumbing, and
electrical. Best bet is to sign up at your local community
college or tech center for your choice of trades, work part time
in the area for/with someone that knows what they are doing, such
as an older semi-retired contractor, and accumulate your tools.

Good luck, and always get the money up front if you can.

Uncle George

The best survival bet appears to be some sort of trade that
exists in both the formal and informal markets, with the
potential for "off the books income," such as HVAC, plumbing, and
electrical. Best bet is to sign up at your local community
college or tech center for your choice of trades, work part time
in the area for/with someone that knows what they are doing, such
as an older semi-retired contractor, and accumulate your tools.

Thanks for your response. I have actually started down this route already.
I have taken 3 semesters of welding classes at Austin Community College,
bought mig and tig welders to go with the oxy-fuel I already owned, along
with a plasma cutter, grinders, etc., and am now making welded furniture. I
am nowhere near making a living at this - it is really just a hobby now, but
I enjoy it, and I have sold some pieces, so am encouraged to continue.

I think it would be great to be an art school teacher, but would need to get
my MFA, which is a possibility...

"Emmo" wrote in message
...
The best survival bet appears to be some sort of trade that
exists in both the formal and informal markets, with the
potential for "off the books income," such as HVAC, plumbing, and
electrical. Best bet is to sign up at your local community
college or tech center for your choice of trades, work part time
in the area for/with someone that knows what they are doing, such
as an older semi-retired contractor, and accumulate your tools.

Thanks for your response. I have actually started down this route
already. I have taken 3 semesters of welding classes at Austin Community
College, bought mig and tig welders to go with the oxy-fuel I already
owned, along with a plasma cutter, grinders, etc., and am now making
welded furniture. I am nowhere near making a living at this - it is
really just a hobby now, but I enjoy it, and I have sold some pieces, so
am encouraged to continue.

I think it would be great to be an art school teacher, but would need to
get my MFA, which is a possibility...

Concentrate on getting some Education courses first - that's the gateway to
getting a Teacher's Certificate.

Once you have the TC, you'll be surprised at how few *other* courses you'll
need in order to get a teaching job.

You'd have a better chance of long-term employment with a school [not
college] system by getting a teaching position *before* completing the
Masters. [Pay Structures, you see!] Once you have a couple of years
experience in the classroom - while working on the Masters - you'll be ready
to "step up" to the College level as an "experienced classroom teacher".

On Mon, 27 Feb 2006 05:09:57 GMT, "Emmo"
wrote:
I think it would be great to be an art school teacher, but would need to get
my MFA, which is a possibility...
===============================
Be advised that the crunch is starting in post secondary
education [I just retired from there].

People are becoming aware that the benefits v costs are no longer
favorable compared to other investments of time and effort they
may make from a financial standpoint.

As in many things our lower socio-economic classes have become
aware of this first at a gut level and they are staying away in
droves. Legislators are also cutting back where they can, but
major universities with winning football teams have enormous
political clout through their alumni base.

Uncle George

On Fri, 24 Feb 2006 00:17:19 GMT, "Emmo" wrote:


I have to work for 16 more years. This is roughly the equivalent amount of
time I spent in high tech, so essentially, I am starting my career all over
again. What should I do? What would you do if you were starting over again
today? I really am stuck...


Try being a 52 yr old guy, with (2) back surgeries, a heart
catherization and no college degrees.

Most HR departments simply fidget in embaressment and give me the Dont
call us, we will call you routine.

And Im rather good in several fields.

Shrug

Gunner, who started his own business as a result.



"A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them;
the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences."
- Proverbs 22:3

Try being a 52 yr old guy, with (2) back surgeries, a heart
catherization and no college degrees.

Most HR departments simply fidget in embaressment and give me the Dont
call us, we will call you routine.

And Im rather good in several fields.

Shrug

Gunner, who started his own business as a result.

Thanx Gunner, I do realize that in many ways I am very lucky, but it helps
to be reminded...