"Don Pearce" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 14 May 2011 17:39:22 +1000, "Trevor" wrote:


"Don Pearce" wrote in message
...
No, you are in fact choosing one door (your first choice) or BOTH the
other doors - the choice if you swap. The revealed goat is one of the
two-door choice, so you have twice the chance of winning the car if
you swap.

What garbage, there are only now 2 doors whether you swap or not,
ignoring
the TV host likely manipulation, which CANNOT be determined as a simple
statistic.
(although could probably be measured from a large number of such TV game
shows. I am unaware of any such actual measurement however)

Trevor.

This is like pulling teeth. I'm not going to explain it any more.
Either you understand or you don't. It helps to have studied maths and
statistics. And no, there isn't any manipulation. It is purely a
matter of understanding what is and isn't new information.


Here's the simplest-possible correct explanation...

2/3 of the time, your initial pick is wrong. The host will then show you the
"goat" prize (the other being the good prize). Ergo, switching will get you
the good prize 2/3 of the time. 1/3 of the time you'll lose the good prize.
This is obviously better than sticking with the initial choice (which is
right only 1/3 of the time).

How much simpler does it need to be, to be comprehensible?