So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

TMT


Is Housing Out of the Woods?
A growing chorus of experts says the worst may be over for home sales.
But the recovery may not be smooth-or quick


Depending on whom you ask, the winds may already be shifting for the
housing market. All year, economists have warned of a bursting housing
bubble and its potential impact on economic growth (see
BusinessWeek.com, 8/21/06, "Why Housing Looks a Little Rickety").
However, a recent stream of encouraging data has some prominent
prognosticators changing their tune.

One of the first in line was Alan Greenspan. As recently as May 18, the
former Federal Reserve chairman put an exclamation point on the housing
slowdown when he declared, "The boom is over." But now, the "worst may
well be over," Greenspan was quoted as saying Oct. 7, after mortgage
applications posted their biggest weekly gain since June, 2005.

A growing number of economists and analysts have come around to the
ex-Fed chief's view. Some investors may see sunnier skies too, as
homebuilding stocks such as Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), and Pulte
Homes (PHM) have rebounded since touching 52-week lows in July. Reports
on existing home sales for September, scheduled for release Oct. 25,
and new home sales Oct. 26 could shed more light on housing's status.

Leveling Out? While the most bearish scenarios may be becoming
increasingly unlikely, the housing market probably isn't out of the
woods yet. Even the most upbeat forecasts call for new-home
construction to keep declining nearly as much as it already has so far.
Meanwhile, underlying economic figures may contradict their milder
headlines.

Greenspan's assessment followed on the heels of Fed Vice-Chairman
Donald Kohn's suggestion Oct. 4 that "[housing] starts may be closer to
their trough than to their peak." The data since then could give bulls
even more reason for guarded optimism. On Oct. 17, the National
Association of Home Builders' housing-market index rebounded to 31 from
30 in September, snapping a 12-month decline from 68 a year earlier. A
day later, a Commerce Dept. report showed housing starts rose 5.9% in
September, to an unexpectedly strong pace of 1.772 million units.

"The point of maximum deterioration in housing activity has probably
passed," says Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs (GS),
in an Oct. 20 report. "The sharp downturn of the past year seems to
have brought total housing starts-single-family starts, multi-family
starts, and mobile-home shipments-close to the level justified by the
underlying demographics."

Permit Plunge Still, Hatzius comes up with plenty of caveats. Housing
activity could drop by another 300,000 housing starts, he projects, as
homebuilders work off unwanted inventory and buyers shift from
single-family units to multifamily and mobile homes. That would come on
top of a decline of 400,000 housing starts already, Hatzius says.

Others maintain that the housing downturn still has a long way to go.
"Commentary suggesting housing demand is recovering, based on the
latest homebuilder and mortgage applications readings, appears to be
more wishful thinking than fact," says Keith Hembre, chief economist at
First American Funds, in an Oct. 20 report. Housing may have stabilized
somewhat, but it's probably only temporary, according to David
Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch (MER). The
unexpected September surge in housing starts came alongside a 6.3% drop
in building permits to their slowest pace since October, 2001 (see
BusinessWeek.com, 9/18/06, "The Housing Bust: Sorry, It Ain't Over
Yet"). A decline in building permits has accompanied a rise in housing
starts only six times since 2003, according to Rosenberg, and starts
fell a month later on five of those occasions.

Grim Futures Rosenberg also differs with Goldman's Hatzius over
demographics. "Our research suggests that this housing cycle does not
bottom out until starts reach the 1.3 million mark," Rosenberg said in
an Oct. 19 report. "So contrary to popular opinion, we are barely in
the fifth inning of this down-cycle on the construction front."

So far, futures traders are sticking with the pessimistic view (see
BusinessWeek.com, 10/10/06, "Where Housing Prices Will Fall the Most").
In afternoon trading Oct. 23, investors were predicting declines over
the next 12 months in all 10 markets covered by the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange's housing contracts. The composite index is seen falling 7% by
August, 2007, when the one-year contract expires. That's roughly
unchanged from what investors expected a month earlier.

Other derivatives traders may also be betting on a deeper slump for
housing. On Oct. 11, the lowest-rated subset of the ABX home-equity
index touched its weakest price level since it was launched in January,
according to London-based Markit, which created the index with CDS
IndexCo. The index tracks a basket of credit default swaps on subprime
mortgages and home-equity loans.

Circumspect Bears In an Oct. 9 speech, San Francisco Fed President
Janet Yellen painted a possibly even gloomier picture. Yellen spoke of
a major homebuilder who calls Phoenix and Las Vegas "the new 'ghost
towns' of the West." According to Yellen, price cuts "appear
inevitable."

Still, there are some glimmers of hope for housing demand. Peter
Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America (BAC), points to the
University of Michigan's latest consumer-sentiment report, in which the
share of respondents indicating that it was a good time to buy a house
jumped to its highest level in 14 months.

Meanwhile, some economists are becoming more circumspect in their
bearishness. In an Oct. 20 note, Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist
at Morgan Stanley (MS), says he still believes the housing slowdown is
far from over. "Nonetheless, the latest data suggest that the intensity
of the housing decline may be fading somewhat, and with it some of the
concurrent downward pressure on housing prices," he adds. "If so, one
of the biggest perceived risks to the U.S. economy may be smaller than
feared."

After years of defying naysayers' predictions, the housing market has
finally cooled in recent months, by virtually all accounts. However,
the debate over when the current slowdown will end may be just
beginning.

So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

TMT

The future is hard to see. But, the last couple real estate downturns lasted
at least three years. My guess is this one will take that long as well,
we're about one year in. Now, if you can guess the absolute bottom during
the next couple years, you're way to smart to be posting on this NG.

At least in this area, now is a good time for small construction projects.
Laid off construction people will work very reasonably for cash.


Karl

Foreclosures, however, have been at record levels for years, from all the
suckers who bought high w/ near-bogus financing. At least fwih.
Plus, as more and more yupsterized baby boomers finally croak, you'll proly
get more and more estate sales'n'****...
The real estate boom *does not* benefit you and me, much as we might ogle at
our own paper windfall. It is really a damacles sword, and in fact it ****s
*everyone* except developers/investors/politicians, and except for the few
people lucky enough to be able to retire, sell, pocket the profit, and move
to cheaper areas, during the boom-times.
--
Mr. P.V.'d (formerly Droll Troll)
Ever-preparing for The Grand Insertion
Party Nominee, IPPVM
Independent Party of the Proctologically Violated®© (M)asses
"That's proly not a hemorrhoid you're feeling.... "
entropic3.14decay at optonline2.718 dot net; remove pi and e to reply--ie,
all d'numbuhs
"Karl Townsend" remove .NOT wrote in
message link.net...

So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

TMT

The future is hard to see. But, the last couple real estate downturns
lasted at least three years. My guess is this one will take that long as
well, we're about one year in. Now, if you can guess the absolute bottom
during the next couple years, you're way to smart to be posting on this
NG.

At least in this area, now is a good time for small construction projects.
Laid off construction people will work very reasonably for cash.


Karl

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 14:36:03 -0400, "Proctologically Violated©®"
wrote:

The real estate boom *does not* benefit you and me, much as we might ogle at
our own paper windfall. It is really a damacles sword, and in fact it ****s
*everyone* except developers/investors/politicians, and except for the few
people lucky enough to be able to retire, sell, pocket the profit, and move
to cheaper areas, during the boom-times.
==================
You are absolutely correct.

For Harry Homeowner who remains in his house, the only thing that
happens is his real estate tax goes up because of the increase
paper valuations. Lets see how fast the assessors are to reduce
his valuation and taxes when the markets go down.

Second bad effect is that Harry succumbs to the "easy money" ads
and borrows against his increased [paper] "home equity" at
usurious interest rates.

More financial crack/crank for the suckers, er.. citizens. Is
this the "brave new one world order's" version of an opiate for
the people?

Unka' George (George McDuffee)
...............................
Only in Britain could it be thought
a defect to be "too clever by half."
The probability is that too many people
are too stupid by three-quarters.

John Major (b. 1943),
British Conservative politician, prime minister.
Quoted in: Observer (London, 7 July 1991).

F. George McDuffee wrote:

For Harry Homeowner who remains in his house, the only thing that
happens is his real estate tax goes up because of the increase
paper valuations. Lets see how fast the assessors are to reduce
his valuation and taxes when the markets go down.

You got that right!
I battle those guys at the Appraisal District every year. So far I'm
"ahead". This year they wanted to appraise my home at $179K. I
presented good comps with qualifiers and made a very good case for
valuation in the $105K range. They gave me $123K, then acted like I
should thank them for the 'gift'.

Rex in Texas

Oh God....

Someone put this post down like a wounded horse so others don't just
waste the 30 sec I did by reading it.


Rex B wrote:
F. George McDuffee wrote:

For Harry Homeowner who remains in his house, the only thing that
happens is his real estate tax goes up because of the increase
paper valuations. Lets see how fast the assessors are to reduce
his valuation and taxes when the markets go down.

You got that right!
I battle those guys at the Appraisal District every year. So far I'm
"ahead". This year they wanted to appraise my home at $179K. I
presented good comps with qualifiers and made a very good case for
valuation in the $105K range. They gave me $123K, then acted like I
should thank them for the 'gift'.

Rex in Texas

Oh God....

Someone put this post down like a wounded horse so others don't just
waste the 30 sec I did by reading it.


Rex B wrote:
F. George McDuffee wrote:

For Harry Homeowner who remains in his house, the only thing that
happens is his real estate tax goes up because of the increase
paper valuations. Lets see how fast the assessors are to reduce
his valuation and taxes when the markets go down.

You got that right!
I battle those guys at the Appraisal District every year. So far I'm
"ahead". This year they wanted to appraise my home at $179K. I
presented good comps with qualifiers and made a very good case for
valuation in the $105K range. They gave me $123K, then acted like I
should thank them for the 'gift'.

Rex in Texas

Oh God....

Someone put this post down like a wounded horse so others don't just
waste the 30 sec I did by reading it.


Rex B wrote:
F. George McDuffee wrote:

For Harry Homeowner who remains in his house, the only thing that
happens is his real estate tax goes up because of the increase
paper valuations. Lets see how fast the assessors are to reduce
his valuation and taxes when the markets go down.

You got that right!
I battle those guys at the Appraisal District every year. So far I'm
"ahead". This year they wanted to appraise my home at $179K. I
presented good comps with qualifiers and made a very good case for
valuation in the $105K range. They gave me $123K, then acted like I
should thank them for the 'gift'.

Rex in Texas

Karl Townsend wrote:
So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

TMT

The future is hard to see. But, the last couple real estate downturns lasted
at least three years. My guess is this one will take that long as well,
we're about one year in. Now, if you can guess the absolute bottom during
the next couple years, you're way to smart to be posting on this NG.

At least in this area, now is a good time for small construction projects.
Laid off construction people will work very reasonably for cash.

That sounds good. Where does one find these people?

On Wed, 25 Oct 2006 19:37:28 GMT, Rex B wrote:

Karl Townsend wrote:
So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

TMT

The future is hard to see. But, the last couple real estate downturns lasted
at least three years. My guess is this one will take that long as well,
we're about one year in. Now, if you can guess the absolute bottom during
the next couple years, you're way to smart to be posting on this NG.

At least in this area, now is a good time for small construction projects.
Laid off construction people will work very reasonably for cash.

That sounds good. Where does one find these people?

Probably the local tavern. Ask them for references.

On 25 Oct 2006 09:34:38 -0700, "Too_Many_Tools"
wrote:

So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

Do you need a larger shop? If so, anytime is a good time. If you're
just investing for the sake of it, probably not. Lots of carpenters
need work right now, so you may get a deal on labor, but all of the
materials are expensive as I've ever seen them.

Prometheus wrote in
:

On 25 Oct 2006 09:34:38 -0700, "Too_Many_Tools"
wrote:

So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

Do you need a larger shop? If so, anytime is a good time. If you're
just investing for the sake of it, probably not. Lots of carpenters
need work right now, so you may get a deal on labor, but all of the
materials are expensive as I've ever seen them.


Many commodities are easing in price in the SF Bay Area. I just picked up
a half a dozen sheets of prefinished birch ply at about 10-12% less than my
last run...

Or maybe it just seems that way today...

Patriarch

Prometheus wrote in
:

On 25 Oct 2006 09:34:38 -0700, "Too_Many_Tools"
wrote:

So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

Do you need a larger shop? If so, anytime is a good time. If you're
just investing for the sake of it, probably not. Lots of carpenters
need work right now, so you may get a deal on labor, but all of the
materials are expensive as I've ever seen them.


Wish I could find some carpenters out of work. I'll settle for for decent
ones. Good ones are impossible to find.

On Thu, 26 Oct 2006 00:48:40 -0500, Henry St.Pierre wrote:


Wish I could find some carpenters out of work. I'll settle for for
decent ones. Good ones are impossible to find.

(Proverbs 22:29) 29Â*Have you beheld a man skillful in his work? Before
kings is where he will station himself; he will not station himself before
commonplace men.

It is starting to look like it will be better to buy a bigger shop than
add on.

I wonder if one could gut a McMansion and redo it as a really nice
shop?

TMT


Home prices plunge by most in 35 years By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP
Economics Writer

The median price of a new home plunged in September by the largest
amount in more than 35 years, even as the pace of sales rebounded for a
second month.

The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home
sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September
2005. It was the lowest median price for a new home since September
2004 and the sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970. The
weakness in new home prices was even sharper than a 2.5 percent fall in
the price of existing homes last month, which had been the biggest drop
on record.

The price decline for new homes came while the sales pace picked up,
rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075
million homes. It marked the second consecutive increase in sales
following three months of declines.

The declines in prices served to underscore the severity of the
correction in the once-booming housing market, which had seen sales of
both new and existing homes soar to record levels for five consecutive
years, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four
decades.

This year, with mortgage rates rising through midsummer, sales have
cooled considerably, with housing expected to trim more than a
percentage point from overall growth in the last half of the year.

The debate is whether the slowdown will be enough to push the country
into an outright recession. The Federal Reserve, recognizing the
weakness in housing, halted a two-year string of interest rate
increases in August and left rates unchanged for a third straight
meeting on Wednesday.

The Fed, however, gave no indication that it planned to start cutting
rates because of the weakness in housing, saying it was still concerned
that inflation remained too high.

The 5.3 percent rise in new home sales in September followed a 3.8
percent rise in August and was the biggest one-month gain since an 8
percent increase in March. However, sales had fallen for three straight
months from May through July.

The rise in sales last month was led by a 23.9 percent jump in the
West. Sales were also up 6.9 percent in the South. However, sales fell
by 34.5 percent in the Northeast and were down 6.3 percent in the
Midwest.


Too_Many_Tools wrote:
So is it a good time to buy a larger shop or just add on to an existing
one?

TMT


Is Housing Out of the Woods?
A growing chorus of experts says the worst may be over for home sales.
But the recovery may not be smooth-or quick


Depending on whom you ask, the winds may already be shifting for the
housing market. All year, economists have warned of a bursting housing
bubble and its potential impact on economic growth (see
BusinessWeek.com, 8/21/06, "Why Housing Looks a Little Rickety").
However, a recent stream of encouraging data has some prominent
prognosticators changing their tune.

One of the first in line was Alan Greenspan. As recently as May 18, the
former Federal Reserve chairman put an exclamation point on the housing
slowdown when he declared, "The boom is over." But now, the "worst may
well be over," Greenspan was quoted as saying Oct. 7, after mortgage
applications posted their biggest weekly gain since June, 2005.

A growing number of economists and analysts have come around to the
ex-Fed chief's view. Some investors may see sunnier skies too, as
homebuilding stocks such as Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), and Pulte
Homes (PHM) have rebounded since touching 52-week lows in July. Reports
on existing home sales for September, scheduled for release Oct. 25,
and new home sales Oct. 26 could shed more light on housing's status.

Leveling Out? While the most bearish scenarios may be becoming
increasingly unlikely, the housing market probably isn't out of the
woods yet. Even the most upbeat forecasts call for new-home
construction to keep declining nearly as much as it already has so far.
Meanwhile, underlying economic figures may contradict their milder
headlines.

Greenspan's assessment followed on the heels of Fed Vice-Chairman
Donald Kohn's suggestion Oct. 4 that "[housing] starts may be closer to
their trough than to their peak." The data since then could give bulls
even more reason for guarded optimism. On Oct. 17, the National
Association of Home Builders' housing-market index rebounded to 31 from
30 in September, snapping a 12-month decline from 68 a year earlier. A
day later, a Commerce Dept. report showed housing starts rose 5.9% in
September, to an unexpectedly strong pace of 1.772 million units.

"The point of maximum deterioration in housing activity has probably
passed," says Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs (GS),
in an Oct. 20 report. "The sharp downturn of the past year seems to
have brought total housing starts-single-family starts, multi-family
starts, and mobile-home shipments-close to the level justified by the
underlying demographics."

Permit Plunge Still, Hatzius comes up with plenty of caveats. Housing
activity could drop by another 300,000 housing starts, he projects, as
homebuilders work off unwanted inventory and buyers shift from
single-family units to multifamily and mobile homes. That would come on
top of a decline of 400,000 housing starts already, Hatzius says.

Others maintain that the housing downturn still has a long way to go.
"Commentary suggesting housing demand is recovering, based on the
latest homebuilder and mortgage applications readings, appears to be
more wishful thinking than fact," says Keith Hembre, chief economist at
First American Funds, in an Oct. 20 report. Housing may have stabilized
somewhat, but it's probably only temporary, according to David
Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch (MER). The
unexpected September surge in housing starts came alongside a 6.3% drop
in building permits to their slowest pace since October, 2001 (see
BusinessWeek.com, 9/18/06, "The Housing Bust: Sorry, It Ain't Over
Yet"). A decline in building permits has accompanied a rise in housing
starts only six times since 2003, according to Rosenberg, and starts
fell a month later on five of those occasions.

Grim Futures Rosenberg also differs with Goldman's Hatzius over
demographics. "Our research suggests that this housing cycle does not
bottom out until starts reach the 1.3 million mark," Rosenberg said in
an Oct. 19 report. "So contrary to popular opinion, we are barely in
the fifth inning of this down-cycle on the construction front."

So far, futures traders are sticking with the pessimistic view (see
BusinessWeek.com, 10/10/06, "Where Housing Prices Will Fall the Most").
In afternoon trading Oct. 23, investors were predicting declines over
the next 12 months in all 10 markets covered by the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange's housing contracts. The composite index is seen falling 7% by
August, 2007, when the one-year contract expires. That's roughly
unchanged from what investors expected a month earlier.

Other derivatives traders may also be betting on a deeper slump for
housing. On Oct. 11, the lowest-rated subset of the ABX home-equity
index touched its weakest price level since it was launched in January,
according to London-based Markit, which created the index with CDS
IndexCo. The index tracks a basket of credit default swaps on subprime
mortgages and home-equity loans.

Circumspect Bears In an Oct. 9 speech, San Francisco Fed President
Janet Yellen painted a possibly even gloomier picture. Yellen spoke of
a major homebuilder who calls Phoenix and Las Vegas "the new 'ghost
towns' of the West." According to Yellen, price cuts "appear
inevitable."

Still, there are some glimmers of hope for housing demand. Peter
Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America (BAC), points to the
University of Michigan's latest consumer-sentiment report, in which the
share of respondents indicating that it was a good time to buy a house
jumped to its highest level in 14 months.

Meanwhile, some economists are becoming more circumspect in their
bearishness. In an Oct. 20 note, Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist
at Morgan Stanley (MS), says he still believes the housing slowdown is
far from over. "Nonetheless, the latest data suggest that the intensity
of the housing decline may be fading somewhat, and with it some of the
concurrent downward pressure on housing prices," he adds. "If so, one
of the biggest perceived risks to the U.S. economy may be smaller than
feared."

After years of defying naysayers' predictions, the housing market has
finally cooled in recent months, by virtually all accounts. However,
the debate over when the current slowdown will end may be just
beginning.

On 26 Oct 2006 12:30:41 -0700, "Too_Many_Tools"
wrote:

It is starting to look like it will be better to buy a bigger shop than
add on.

I wonder if one could gut a McMansion and redo it as a really nice
shop?

Would you even need to gut it? Last one I saw was real impressive on
the outside, but didn't even have trim on the inside. Just plain
drywall with orangepeel texture and big open rooms. It would have
made a hell of a shop, come to think of it.

But seriously, if you want to buy a new shop, and go the pole-building
route (the least expensive option if you want a big building with a
high ceiling,) most of the vendors run discounts during the winter, so
don't wait until spring to line them up. IIRC, 8-11% off in January
is not that uncommon. Stick frame isn't quite the same, as the
foundation needs to be poured when the weather is warm enough.

On Fri, 27 Oct 2006 05:40:07 -0500, Prometheus
wrote:

On 26 Oct 2006 12:30:41 -0700, "Too_Many_Tools"
wrote:

It is starting to look like it will be better to buy a bigger shop than
add on.

I wonder if one could gut a McMansion and redo it as a really nice
shop?

Would you even need to gut it? Last one I saw was real impressive on
the outside, but didn't even have trim on the inside. Just plain
drywall with orangepeel texture and big open rooms. It would have
made a hell of a shop, come to think of it.

But seriously, if you want to buy a new shop, and go the pole-building
route (the least expensive option if you want a big building with a
high ceiling,) most of the vendors run discounts during the winter, so
don't wait until spring to line them up. IIRC, 8-11% off in January
is not that uncommon. Stick frame isn't quite the same, as the
foundation needs to be poured when the weather is warm enough.

We do foundations all year round down here. The joys of living in the
south.

On Fri, 27 Oct 2006 11:48:02 GMT, Jim Behning
wrote:

But seriously, if you want to buy a new shop, and go the pole-building
route (the least expensive option if you want a big building with a
high ceiling,) most of the vendors run discounts during the winter, so
don't wait until spring to line them up. IIRC, 8-11% off in January
is not that uncommon. Stick frame isn't quite the same, as the
foundation needs to be poured when the weather is warm enough.

We do foundations all year round down here. The joys of living in the
south.

Yeah, but you miss out on the delightful cold weather, so it evens
out. The south would be nice in the winters, but the summer heat
would drop me.

On Fri, 27 Oct 2006 19:42:49 -0500, Prometheus
wrote:

On Fri, 27 Oct 2006 11:48:02 GMT, Jim Behning
wrote:

But seriously, if you want to buy a new shop, and go the pole-building
route (the least expensive option if you want a big building with a
high ceiling,) most of the vendors run discounts during the winter, so
don't wait until spring to line them up. IIRC, 8-11% off in January
is not that uncommon. Stick frame isn't quite the same, as the
foundation needs to be poured when the weather is warm enough.

We do foundations all year round down here. The joys of living in the
south.

Yeah, but you miss out on the delightful cold weather, so it evens
out. The south would be nice in the winters, but the summer heat
would drop me.

I do miss playing in the snow and hiking in the park when no cars can
get in the park. The quiet of a fresh snow is amazing. Summer heat is
something you get used to just like the thickening of the blood when
it is 10F outside. Building my house in the middle of the summer was
darned hot. Building my pole barn was not as bad as it was in the
summer but I was outside.
http://www.brookridgemorgans.com/ourpolebarn.htm