"Andy Hall" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 10:36:37 -0000, ":::Jerry::::"
wrote:


"Andy Hall" wrote in message
.. .
snip

The cost curve is very different. As the original BBC article said,
when VCRs first came out, they cost £3000 in today's money. There
was a long plateau in the £300-500 range before the price finally
bombed as the technology nears the end of its life.

But the price dropped long before VCR technology became old,

I meant to the £50-£100 level.


That's one hell of a jump, couldn't even have been a typo... :~)


big snip

My point was that as long as there's a playback method for older
formats, people will by new stuff.

But that is not what Dixons group are saying, otherwise Dixons (shops) would
still be selling VCR's - they are claiming that the format is dead and that
no one needs the machines anymore !

I can understand them not wanting to sell VCR's anymore but to claim the
format is dead is quite simply wrong and they should be made to say so IMO,
those who wish to accept their marketing hype can make a distress purchase
of an over priced DVD recorder and those with half a brain can shop
elsewhere.


- most people simple have to much invested (both monetary
and emotions) in the formats for them just to die because someone like
Dixons says that it is dead, people will see through this pure marketing
hype.


It's pretty effective marketing hype. Sales of VCRs have been
declining, even at commodity prices.

Yes, it's amazing how hype spreads...

The decline will be gradual,
and perhaps the large retailers will have some influence over it.

Unless people dump old memorise etc the VCR is going to be around form a
good few years, the only reason I could see the VCR really dieing quickly is
if the DVD recorder price drops to the cost of a current VCR - which people
like Dixons won't like one bit I suspect.

Not having something on the shelf means that people will look at
alternatives. DVD recorders in the shops at below £200 just before
Christmas will sell pretty well I think.


Still more than twice the price of a VCR, and the quality issue doesn't
enter the equation when you are talking about dubbing VHS to DVD, carp in =
crap out ! :~)

"Dave Plowman (News)" wrote in message
...
In article ,
:::Jerry:::: wrote:
But the price dropped long before VCR technology became old, SVHS could
still give DVD a run for it's money (other than random access etc.) even
today and lets not even go down the possibilities of the JVC digital 7
format...

I've got both S-VHS and a DVD recorder, and the DVD recorder in its 'best'
setting gives results near indistinguishable from off air FreeView. S-VHS
doesn't. Except on B&W films. ;-)


Yes, but is it quality or just digital processing.... :~)

On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 13:20:23 -0000, ":::Jerry::::"
wrote:


"Andy Hall" wrote in message
.. .
On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 10:36:37 -0000, ":::Jerry::::"
wrote:


"Andy Hall" wrote in message
.. .
snip

The cost curve is very different. As the original BBC article said,
when VCRs first came out, they cost £3000 in today's money. There
was a long plateau in the £300-500 range before the price finally
bombed as the technology nears the end of its life.

But the price dropped long before VCR technology became old,

I meant to the £50-£100 level.


That's one hell of a jump, couldn't even have been a typo... :~)


It wasn't. It was what I meant by a price drop from the plateau mid
market level of £300-500 down to the commodity £50-100 range.



big snip

My point was that as long as there's a playback method for older
formats, people will by new stuff.

But that is not what Dixons group are saying, otherwise Dixons (shops) would
still be selling VCR's - they are claiming that the format is dead and that
no one needs the machines anymore !

I can understand them not wanting to sell VCR's anymore but to claim the
format is dead is quite simply wrong and they should be made to say so IMO,
those who wish to accept their marketing hype can make a distress purchase
of an over priced DVD recorder and those with half a brain can shop
elsewhere.

I think you need to understand what the term "dead" means to a volume
bricks and mortar retailer. Because shelf space is so expensive, it
is when the margin on a product, volume and revenue from it become so
small that it no longer justifies its space. For Dixons, on their
business model (whatever that may be) that has happened and they feel
that they can make better use of the space with other products.

It's self determining. If they are right, then presumably other
retailers will come to the same conclusion sooner or later. If they
are wrong, then their loss will be to other retailers who will
continue to stock VCRs and where people might buy a VCR and a TV, for
example.

Undoubtedly Dixons, albeit a shoddy organisation, will have looked at
the historic and projected sales figures before deciding.
They may even be taking a reasoned gamble that by doing and announcing
this that they will drive the market. To a degree, that is true -
they will because they have a reasonable retail market share of
electrical goods.

I don't think that it's exactly a distress purchase. If people
*really* want a VCR, they will find one. If they want something to
record and play back video then they may buy a DVD recorder, and every
retailer will be pleased to sell them one.

Talking about the *format* being dead is a different issue. Clearly
tapes are going to be available for a long time. I think that
pre-recorded tapes will gradually decline as more and more people buy
at least a DVD player - they are already well into commodity price
range.

It's no different to audio LPs, cassettes and CDs. You can still
buy all three, but vinyl disks have come down to specialist stores and
cassettes gradually are losing shelf space to CDs.

It's called progress.




- most people simple have to much invested (both monetary
and emotions) in the formats for them just to die because someone like
Dixons says that it is dead, people will see through this pure marketing
hype.


It's pretty effective marketing hype. Sales of VCRs have been
declining, even at commodity prices.

Yes, it's amazing how hype spreads...

Oh sure. I am sure that they are attempting to drive the market.

People thought that cassette tapes were hype, and CDs and certainly
DVDs.



The decline will be gradual,
and perhaps the large retailers will have some influence over it.

Unless people dump old memorise etc the VCR is going to be around form a
good few years, the only reason I could see the VCR really dieing quickly is
if the DVD recorder price drops to the cost of a current VCR - which people
like Dixons won't like one bit I suspect.

No it probably won't. In all of these types of equipment, new
things are added to maintain a higher pricepoint while the current
feature set price falls. The example with DVD recorders is the
addition of hard drives.



Not having something on the shelf means that people will look at
alternatives. DVD recorders in the shops at below £200 just before
Christmas will sell pretty well I think.


Still more than twice the price of a VCR, and the quality issue doesn't
enter the equation when you are talking about dubbing VHS to DVD, carp in =
crap out ! :~)

I know, but £200 is a price point that a lot of people will accept to
treat themselves for Christmas.



--

..andy

To email, substitute .nospam with .gl

"Andy Hall" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 13:20:23 -0000, ":::Jerry::::"
wrote:


"Andy Hall" wrote in message
.. .
On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 10:36:37 -0000, ":::Jerry::::"
wrote:


"Andy Hall" wrote in message
.. .
snip

The cost curve is very different. As the original BBC article said,
when VCRs first came out, they cost £3000 in today's money. There
was a long plateau in the £300-500 range before the price finally
bombed as the technology nears the end of its life.

But the price dropped long before VCR technology became old,

I meant to the £50-£100 level.


That's one hell of a jump, couldn't even have been a typo... :~)


It wasn't. It was what I meant by a price drop from the plateau mid
market level of £300-500 down to the commodity £50-100 range.

Yes, of course, sorry.




big snip

My point was that as long as there's a playback method for older
formats, people will by new stuff.

But that is not what Dixons group are saying, otherwise Dixons (shops)
would
still be selling VCR's - they are claiming that the format is dead and
that
no one needs the machines anymore !

I can understand them not wanting to sell VCR's anymore but to claim the
format is dead is quite simply wrong and they should be made to say so
IMO,
those who wish to accept their marketing hype can make a distress
purchase
of an over priced DVD recorder and those with half a brain can shop
elsewhere.

I think you need to understand what the term "dead" means to a volume
bricks and mortar retailer. Because shelf space is so expensive, it
is when the margin on a product, volume and revenue from it become so
small that it no longer justifies its space.

Yes, and I knew that, but do most customers - I doubt they do, when (as
average Dixons customers view them) the experts say XYZ format is dead they
will take it that it's gone the way of the 78 rpm record IYSWIM.

For Dixons, on their
business model (whatever that may be) that has happened and they feel
that they can make better use of the space with other products.

So they should say that, not tell porkies and miss-lead Joe Public.


It's self determining. If they are right, then presumably other
retailers will come to the same conclusion sooner or later. If they
are wrong, then their loss will be to other retailers who will
continue to stock VCRs and where people might buy a VCR and a TV, for
example.

It won't matter to Dixons Group, they are still selling the VCR, just not in
their Dixons stores, this is why I'm saying that they are telling porkies
because if they really believed what they are saying then Currys etc (all
part of the DG PLC) would be clearing their shelves to.


Undoubtedly Dixons, albeit a shoddy organisation, will have looked at
the historic and projected sales figures before deciding.

I doubt it, see above, what they *are * doing is hoping to cash in their
'new techology' tag-line and their (on average) ignorant customer base.

They may even be taking a reasoned gamble that by doing and announcing
this that they will drive the market. To a degree, that is true -
they will because they have a reasonable retail market share of
electrical goods.

Yes, by telling porkies to ignorant customers....


I don't think that it's exactly a distress purchase. If people
*really* want a VCR, they will find one.

Even when they have been told by the BBC (who should have known better than
to run such a fails story) that the VCR is dead - it's been on the TV, so
the VCR must be dead, better go out and by a DVD recorder and save all my
VHS tapes before my VCR packs up....

If they want something to
record and play back video then they may buy a DVD recorder, and every
retailer will be pleased to sell them one.

I wouldn't be surprised if the price of DVD / HDD recorders is going to drop
much further in the coming year, and DG PLC know that, they tend to use
Dixons shops as a means to sell something for as much as they can before
every 'High Street' outlet starts to sell the item at knock down prices.


Talking about the *format* being dead is a different issue. Clearly
tapes are going to be available for a long time. I think that
pre-recorded tapes will gradually decline as more and more people buy
at least a DVD player - they are already well into commodity price
range.

Yes and I don't think that anyone has disputed that, here we are talking
about home recordable formats.

snip


Unless people dump old memorise etc the VCR is going to be around form a
good few years, the only reason I could see the VCR really dieing quickly
is
if the DVD recorder price drops to the cost of a current VCR - which
people
like Dixons won't like one bit I suspect.

No it probably won't.
snip

That was said about the VCR and computers look what happened...

Not having something on the shelf means that people will look at
alternatives. DVD recorders in the shops at below £200 just before
Christmas will sell pretty well I think.


Still more than twice the price of a VCR, and the quality issue doesn't
enter the equation when you are talking about dubbing VHS to DVD, carp in
=
crap out ! :~)

I know, but £200 is a price point that a lot of people will accept to
treat themselves for Christmas.


Nail on the head Andy, Christmas is the operative word in all these (IMO)
porkies that have been put about by DG PLC...

Andy Hall wrote:

I know, but £200 is a price point that a lot of people will accept to
treat themselves for Christmas.


£120 in Argos this weekend!

Regards
Capitol

"Andy Hall" wrote in message
...

For people who would like to record something for viewing once or
twice and then erase, there are DVD recorders with a hard disk which
will do that.

Yes, for plain 'Time shifting', the HD recorder is how it's going, the
ability to start watching the start of the programme before the end has
been
recorded is one of the benefits the average consumer will find useful I
suspect.

If the content is worth keeping, it can be committed
to DVD. I actually think that that is a better operational solution
than a VCR.

But home burn optical disk's ATM are not stable enough to archive
something
long term, such as family events etc., OTOH magnetic tape has proved it's
self over the last 40 years or so as a long term storage medium and as I
said in other post even if magnetic tape does start to degrade it will
still
play out something - optical disk's tend to just sit in the drive and do
sod
all.

Recordable DVDs are too new to know yet, I agree, but equally I have
not had problems with recordable CDs in the past.

I usually have to throw away recordable CDs after a few months of use. Top
name brands but heavy use.

"Andy Hall" wrote in message
...
I really would advise waiting as long as you can on writeable DVDs.
There are about five formats out there and only one of them is
going
to
win. Are you feeling lucky ? :-)

It doesn't matter because most of the recorders support most of the
formats anyway.

For recording?

Very few


The write-once media are now so cheap that it's not really worth
buying the rewritable ones so recording compatibility is not so big a
deal AFAICS.

Hardly a replacement for the VCR that way.


I don't think that it matters.

It depends on what you want to do. With VCRs I have tended to record
on tapes once and keep the tapes as an archive for a long time and
perhaps eventually bin them. I seldom re-use them.

I think that's unusual. Perhaps others can comment.


DVD-Rs can be obtained in bulk for around 50-60p so I can do the same
thing with those.

For people who would like to record something for viewing once or
twice and then erase, there are DVD recorders with a hard disk which
will do that. If the content is worth keeping, it can be committed
to DVD. I actually think that that is a better operational solution
than a VCR.

Not really. The hard disc is stuck on the main TV whereas I sometimes want
to watch programmes on the other TVs which would need to blow a CD.
Re-recordable media is essential.

"John Rumm" wrote in message
...
Andy Hall wrote:

DVD recorders have fallen to the £200-300 level very early on in their
life cycle, and I think it's a reflection that people will expect to
change them after no more than 5 years anyway.

It is also a reflection of the far greater simplicity of the CD/DVD
servo mechanism. While it is relatively cheap to optimise the
electronics and software for a high sales volume product like a VCR,
cost reduction of the mechanics did not seem to happen for a long time,
which may have partially accounted for the longer period to
"commoditization".

(There is also seems to be less spread in price and quality on CD/DVD
mechanisms, whereas a cheap VCR mechanism will only have a fraction of
the life of a better quality one)

That's because almost all appear to be based on a single reference design
from the mechanism manufacturer in China. Only exceptions were the 'home
cinema' models with the 5.1 audio using the Wolfson chipset but now the
Chinese have copied this as well there really isn't anything to
differentiate on.

"Dave Plowman (News)" wrote in message
...

I've got both S-VHS and a DVD recorder, and the DVD recorder in its 'best'
setting gives results near indistinguishable from off air FreeView.

You mean they're both unwatchable ? I would have hoped most DVDs were
better than that.

On Sat, 27 Nov 2004 23:14:29 -0000, "Mike" wrote:


"Andy Hall" wrote in message


For people who would like to record something for viewing once or
twice and then erase, there are DVD recorders with a hard disk which
will do that. If the content is worth keeping, it can be committed
to DVD. I actually think that that is a better operational solution
than a VCR.

Not really. The hard disc is stuck on the main TV whereas I sometimes want
to watch programmes on the other TVs which would need to blow a CD.
Re-recordable media is essential.


I have a video distribution system covering the entire house which
deals with that issue.
Most equipment can be centralised/



--

..andy

To email, substitute .nospam with .gl