New Zealand a step closer to recession as GDP suffers biggest fall in 29 years
By Tracy Withers, 6/18/20

New Zealand's GDP suffered its biggest fall since 1991 as the pandemic began to bite in the 1st qtr.

GDP fell 1.6% from the 4th qtr, Stats Nz said on Thurs in Wellington. Economists expected GDP would shrink 1%. From a year earlier, the economy fell 0..2% - the 1st annual contraction since 2009.

The nation is bracing for a severe contraction in the three months through June after it responded to the pandemic by closing its border and imposing a strict nationwide lockdown that stayed in place until mid-May. The government has pledged $NZ62 billion ($58.1 billion) of fiscal support to help revive domestic demand and protect jobs, while the central bank has slashed interest rates and embarked on quantitative easing to drive down borrowing costs.

The NZ dollar declined after the GDP report. It bought 64.59 U.S. cents at 8.50 am AEST in Wellington.

The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak began to be felt in early Feb with a travel ban imposed on arrivals from China & exporters facing difficulties in their supply chains. Tourism started to feel the pain as border measures were stepped up after the first case of COVID-19 was discovered on Feb 28. PM Jacinda Ardern eventually took the unprecedented step of closing the border to all foreigners on March 19.

Only in the final week of the quarter, on March 25, was the nation placed into lockdown, requiring almost all retailers other than supermarkets to close and shutting down building sites and most factories.

Bank economists predict the economy will contract by as much as 19% in the 2nd qtr, confirming NZ's 1st recession since the 2nd half of 2010. Some have scaled back the severity of the expected slump after the country succeeded in eliminating the virus & came out of lockdown earlier than anticipated, partially reviving consumer confidence & giving a fillip to retail spending.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...18-p553sq.html

David P wrote

New Zealand a step closer to recession
as GDP suffers biggest fall in 29 years

But now that they have stamped the virus
out it will be fine from now on, you watch.

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On 20/06/2020 10:08, Rod Speed wrote:
David P wrote
New Zealand a step closer to recession as GDP suffers biggest fall in
29 years

But now that they have stamped the virus outÂ* it will be fine from now
on, you watch.


And why do we need analysts to tell us the bleeding obvious?
Lockdown = Lower GDP.

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alan_m wrote
Rod Speed wrote
David P wrote

New Zealand a step closer to recession
as GDP suffers biggest fall in 29 years

But now that they have stamped the virus
out it will be fine from now on, you watch.

And why do we need analysts to tell us the bleeding obvious?
Lockdown = Lower GDP.

You do need analysis for the biggest fall in 29 years claim.

If we had not imported two cases in and if the border police had not
forgotten to test them before they let them drive across the island while
infected and attend a funeral. Everyone is waiting to see how many people
get it.

The problem is they rely on tourists, and the first step is to form a bubble
with oz and some of the island states, then as the world, hopefully gets
more immune, gradually open up. Cannot see that for a year or so myself.
They are also due a large Earthquake. All the warning signs from the last
one are in place, lots of little ones around Wellington and some people
seeing blue lights coming up from the ground which is I think something to
do with stress and the electricity generated by it, underground. Shallow
earthquakes are not good to have.
Brian

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"Rod Speed" wrote in message
...
David P wrote
New Zealand a step closer to recession as GDP suffers biggest fall in 29
years

But now that they have stamped the virus out it will be fine from now on,
you watch.

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On 21/06/2020 05:59, Rod Speed wrote:
alan_m wrote



And why do we need analysts to tell us the bleeding obvious?
Lockdown = Lower GDP.

You do need analysis for the biggest fall in 29 years claim.


What happened 29 years ago in NZ to create a greater fall in GDP than
locking down for around 100 days?

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Brian Gaff (Sofa) wrote

If we had not imported two cases in and if the border police had not
forgotten to test them

They didn’t forget to test them, they were stupid
enough to let them out of the compulsory
quarantine to let them attend the funeral.

That wont be allowed to happen again.

before they let them drive across the island while infected and attend a
funeral. Everyone is waiting to see how many people get it.

The problem is they rely on tourists,

No they don’t, its only 6% of their GDP and
much of that is with Oz and pacific islanders.

and the first step is to form a bubble with oz and some of the island
states,

Which don’t have any current virus cases.

then as the world, hopefully gets more immune, gradually open up.

Its less clear if they will go that route.

Cannot see that for a year or so myself.

Really depends on if and when a viable vaccine is available.

I cant see that anywhere will get herd immunity any time
soon given that even Stockholm hasn’t got even close to that.

They are also due a large Earthquake.

That remains to be seen and isnt necessarily bad for the GDP
anyway given all the rebuilding that has to be done after one.

All the warning signs from the last one are in place, lots of little ones
around Wellington

and some people seeing blue lights coming up from the ground which is I
think something to do with stress and the electricity generated by it,
underground.

That’s bull****.

Shallow earthquakes are not good to have.

But not necessarily bad for the GDP.

"Rod Speed" wrote in message
...
David P wrote
New Zealand a step closer to recession as GDP suffers biggest fall in 29
years

But now that they have stamped the virus out it will be fine from now
on, you watch.

alan_m wrote
Rod Speed wrote
alan_m wrote

And why do we need analysts to tell us the bleeding obvious? Lockdown =
Lower GDP.

You do need analysis for the biggest fall in 29 years claim.

What happened 29 years ago in NZ to create a greater fall in GDP than
locking down for around 100 days?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_...on#New_Zealand

The lockdown didnt have a huge effect on gdp because
people still need to eat and go about their business. It mainly
has an effect on pubs and restaurants and sports events etc.

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