"Vir Campestris" wrote in message
...
On 10/04/2020 00:11, Fredxx wrote:
They will only know that when they have tested sufficient of the
population for numbers of those infected. We have no idea what proportion
of the population are infected or the rate of new infections.

The real question is when will we know the NHS can cope?

Lets be optimistic, lets assume 2% of the population will need admission
to a hospital before herd immunity kicks in sufficiently. That's 1
million patients. Each one that survives, probably 1/2, will need a bed
for 1 or 2 weeks. That's a lot of beds, or a very long time to reach herd
immunity.

My numbers may be off, but that should paint a picture of how this might
pan out.

I went and looked at the South Korea figures earlier.

They've been carrying out extremely widespread contact tracing and
testing, and seem to have the epidemic under control. Unlike some
countries I have some faith in their numbers.

have that archived that by banning entry to the country of ALL foreigners

something that we seem reluctant to consider

tim

In article ,
Vir Campestris wrote:
Let me merely say that if you are of a nervous disposition don't look
them up. My wife, for example, wouldn't benefit from knowing their figures.

We've been in lockdown now for three weeks, comfortably over the
incubation period; if lockdown is working we should be seeing a massive
drop in hospital admissions.


London, which is ahead of most of the rest of this country, is showing an
encouraging trend as regards new hospital admissions. Things will be a lot
clearer in a week's time. But total numbers in hospital will rather
obviously go up, as will deaths. As these lag admissions.

--
*Why don't sheep shrink when it rains?

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
idual.net...
On Thu, 9 Apr 2020 19:56:00 +0100, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

I think you dont get proper herd immunity until the infection rate drops
to zero ...

Mean, over a population, infection rate of less than one from someone
infected. Obviously the lower the infection rate the faster it dies
out.


but even an infection rate of less than 1 doesn't make it die out

That's what people are not understanding

tim

In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
in Suffolk there have hardly BEEN any admissions. 300 cases in total.
Its working HERE.

You've failed to understand the progress of this varies by area in the UK?
Same as in other countries?

We aren't.

We may be wrecking the economy, and not helping the country's health.

London is another country. If they think they are invulnerable and the
tories are lying to em, let em all die.

And if everyone in London dies, who is going to provide for you?

But then you never could see beyond the end of your nose...

--
*Two many clicks spoil the browse *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

"Stephen Cole" wrote in message
...
Harry Bloomfield, Esq. wrote:
Dave Liquorice formulated the question :
All we can do is watch the hospital admissions and once they are
showing a consistent fall for a couple of weeks, lift some of the
more draconion ones and keep a close eye on the admissions. If they
start to exponentialy rise bang the restrictions back on. The tricky
bit is spotting early enough the difference between the rise that
will occur when the restrictions are lifted and a rise that means
it's starting to take off again.

The big problem with that, is the long lag between lifting restrictions
and the infections appearing.

Sensible would be system of lifting restrictions in a closely confined
area, as a test. In Italy they have isolated a village for experimental
purposes.


I expect that the so-called Immunity Passport will be rolled out toot
sweet,

when we have a test for immunity

which could be 18 months away

all of the "next couple of months" predictions are wishful thinking

the same wishful thinking that sees people looking at booking a foreign
summer holiday this year.

tim

"Brian Reay" wrote in message
...
On 10/04/2020 10:42, Jethro_uk wrote:
On Fri, 10 Apr 2020 07:36:17 +0000, Stephen Cole wrote:

Harry Bloomfield, Esq. wrote:
Dave Liquorice formulated the question :
All we can do is watch the hospital admissions and once they are
showing a consistent fall for a couple of weeks, lift some of the more
draconion ones and keep a close eye on the admissions. If they start
to exponentialy rise bang the restrictions back on. The tricky bit is
spotting early enough the difference between the rise that will occur
when the restrictions are lifted and a rise that means it's starting
to take off again.

The big problem with that, is the long lag between lifting restrictions
and the infections appearing.

Sensible would be system of lifting restrictions in a closely confined
area, as a test. In Italy they have isolated a village for experimental
purposes.


I expect that the so-called Immunity Passport will be rolled out toot
sweet, so those of us that are economically productive and have shrugged
off a dose of Covid-19 already can get back to our usual routines. It
doesnt take a close study of the Tory mindset to know that theyre much
more keen about getting the economy going than keeping pensioners alive;
the next General Election is too far away for the loss of potential
voters to over-ride the cost of lockdown. And many of those that will
die from this wouldnt make it to the next election anyway, so its even
less of a concern for your common or garden Tory politico.

Of course, therell still be millions of Boomers on lockdown for months
to come while they wait for a vaccine. Theyll kick up an almighty fuss
about €œsnowflake millennials€� being allowed to do what they like again,
but the alternative is they roll the dice and catch the plague. A big
risk for that demographic.

All predicated on the - as yet untested - theory that it's not possible
to become reinfected, and that there are huge swathes of people that have
somehow developed immunity. All without a shred of evidence.


Yet the media haven't stopped screaming about the 'anti-body test'

that's because snake oil salesmen keep on telling us they have one

while the Government are being sensible and evaluating the tests, checking
they are reliable etc.

which so far, none of them have been

tim

On 11/04/2020 11:59, tim... wrote:


"Stephen Cole" wrote in message
...
Harry Bloomfield, Esq. wrote:
Dave Liquorice formulated the question :
All we can do is watch the hospital admissions and once they are
showing a consistent fall for a couple of weeks, lift some of the
more draconion ones and keep a close eye on the admissions. If they
start to exponentialy rise bang the restrictions back on. The tricky
bit is spotting early enough the difference between the rise that
will occur when the restrictions are lifted and a rise that means
it's starting to take off again.

The big problem with that, is the long lag between lifting restrictions
and the infections appearing.

Sensible would be system of lifting restrictions in a closely confined
area, as a test. In Italy they have isolated a village for experimental
purposes.


I expect that the so-called Immunity Passport will be rolled out toot
sweet,

when we have a test for immunity


They can test for anti-bodies now, just not quickly on a fast turn
around / rapid scale.

Just as they've been able to test for the infection, just not on a
large/quick turn around scale.

The 'existing' tests are slow, in simple terms, require skills etc. What
they are looking for is rapid, 'low skill', ideally low cost test which
is also reliable enough it is useful. By 'low skill' I don't mean to
demean, for example, the staff who may well administer any test, simply
that is it simple- perhaps like a home pregnancy test but using blood,
rather than requiring multiple stages etc, any one of which, if not just
correct, could cause an error.







--

https://www.antislavery.org/slavery-...forced-labour/

In article ,
tim... wrote:
They will ease restrictions when they are certain the local NHS can cope.

how are you going to stop leakage across a boundary if rules are
different each side of it?

and is it really fair to say that residents of Manchester can go on
leisure trips to the Pennines but residents of Leeds can't

Why I said ease. Not abolish.

I was just watching last night's Newsnight (with hindsight it was the night
before's)

and they interviewed Andy Burnham and the mayor of Birmingham (a Tory)

and they both said that they thought changes to the rules on a regional
basis would be un-workable, un-enforceable and unfair

Yes. I noted that. Things like schools were shut down at different times
across the UK. Not quite sure how it would cause problems to do it in the
reverse. In a planned rather than panic way.

Except with all the conspiracy types, of course.

--
*Why is the man who invests all your money called a broker?

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

In article ,
tim... wrote:
I expect that the so-called Immunity Passport will be rolled out toot
sweet,

when we have a test for immunity

which could be 18 months away

My guess is we'll have a treatment for it before a vaccine becomes
available.

--
*Did you ever notice when you blow in a dog's face he gets mad at you? *

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

"Dave Plowman (News)" wrote in message
...
In article ,
tim... wrote:
They will ease restrictions when they are certain the local NHS can
cope.

how are you going to stop leakage across a boundary if rules are
different each side of it?

and is it really fair to say that residents of Manchester can go on
leisure trips to the Pennines but residents of Leeds can't

Why I said ease. Not abolish.

I was just watching last night's Newsnight (with hindsight it was the
night
before's)

and they interviewed Andy Burnham and the mayor of Birmingham (a Tory)

and they both said that they thought changes to the rules on a regional
basis would be un-workable, un-enforceable and unfair

Yes. I noted that. Things like schools were shut down at different times

were they

I thought the date was the same everywhere

tim

On 11/04/2020 14:16, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
tim... wrote:
I expect that the so-called Immunity Passport will be rolled out toot
sweet,

when we have a test for immunity

which could be 18 months away

My guess is we'll have a treatment for it before a vaccine becomes
available.

good to hear...

"Dave Plowman (News)" wrote in message
...
In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
in Suffolk there have hardly BEEN any admissions. 300 cases in total.
Its working HERE.

You've failed to understand the progress of this varies by area in the UK?
Same as in other countries?

We aren't.

We may be wrecking the economy, and not helping the country's health.

London is another country. If they think they are invulnerable and the
tories are lying to em, let em all die.

And if everyone in London dies,

That’s never going to happen. In the first world at most
something like 30% of those over 60 die even if all the
hospitals are massively overloaded and everyone gets
no treatment at all and either recover or die. And few
of those do much to keep everyone else supplied.
Its less than 5% of those under 60.

who is going to provide for you?

Those that don’t die.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 01:32:29 +1000, John_j, better known as cantankerous
trolling senile geezer Rodent Speed, wrote:

FLUSH senile cretin's troll****

01:32???? ROTFLOL

Another long lonely sleepless night ahead for you again, you clinically
insane 86-year-old trolling senile pest? Of COURSE! LOL

--
Pedophilic dreckserb Razovic arguing in favour of pedophilia, again:
"Why do we still have outdated laws prohibiting paedophilia? Do you
seriously think that a 12-year old who spends 15 hours a day on Facebook
doesn't know what's going on?"
MID:

In article ,
tim... wrote:
Yes. I noted that. Things like schools were shut down at different times

were they

I thought the date was the same everywhere

IIRC, Scotland was earlier in shutting down schools by a matter of days.
Despite the virus progressing fastest in the likes of London.

BoJo dithering didn't do us any favours.

--
*If we weren't meant to eat animals, why are they made of meat?

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On 11/04/2020 11:59:18, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
in Suffolk there have hardly BEEN any admissions. 300 cases in total.
Its working HERE.

You've failed to understand the progress of this varies by area in the UK?
Same as in other countries?

We aren't.

We may be wrecking the economy, and not helping the country's health.

London is another country. If they think they are invulnerable and the
tories are lying to em, let em all die.

And if everyone in London dies, who is going to provide for you?

But then you never could see beyond the end of your nose...

We won't need any help if houses become affordable once more.

"Dave Plowman (News)" wrote in message
...
In article ,
tim... wrote:
Yes. I noted that. Things like schools were shut down at different
times

were they

I thought the date was the same everywhere

IIRC, Scotland was earlier in shutting down schools by a matter of days.
Despite the virus progressing fastest in the likes of London.

There is a big difference between shutting schools on a
marginally different date where its never going be possible
to move your kids to a different school at the other end
of the country and relaxing the lockdown to allow the use
of camping grounds in some areas where anyone on the
country can use them in such a small country.

BoJo dithering didn't do us any favours.

--
*If we weren't meant to eat animals, why are they made of meat?

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 03:28:33 +1000, Sam45, better known as cantankerous
trolling senile geezer Rodent Speed, wrote:

FLUSH the trolling senile asshole's latest troll****

03:28??? LOL And you've been up and trolling for OVER TWO HOURS, ALREADY!
You just don't get it, eh, senile Rodent?

--
Richard addressing senile Rodent Speed:
"**** you're thick/pathetic excuse for a troll."
MID:

On 11/04/2020 18:14, Fredxx wrote:
On 11/04/2020 11:59:18, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
Â*Â*Â* The Natural Philosopher wrote:
in Suffolk there have hardly BEEN any admissions. 300 cases in total.
Its working HERE.

You've failed to understand the progress of this varies by area in the
UK?
Same as in other countries?

We aren't.

We may be wrecking the economy, and not helping the country's health.

London is another country. If they think they are invulnerable and the
tories are lying to em, let em all die.

And if everyone in London dies, who is going to provide for you?

But then you never could see beyond the end of your nose...

We won't need any help if houses become affordable once more.


If prices drop, which is likely, it will be a prime time for Buy to Let.

There won't be money for social housing, nor people to get mortgages,
people will be forced to rent.

Those with capital to invest will be ideally placed to buy up cheap
property and rent it out.

The Government won't be able to afford to prevent it.

On 11/04/2020 11:55, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
London, which is ahead of most of the rest of this country, is showing an
encouraging trend as regards new hospital admissions. Things will be a lot
clearer in a week's time. But total numbers in hospital will rather
obviously go up, as will deaths. As these lag admissions.

It's down to doubling in 8 days when it was every 5.

I'm glad I don't live in London...

Andy

"Brian Reay" wrote in message
...
On 11/04/2020 18:14, Fredxx wrote:
On 11/04/2020 11:59:18, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
In article ,
The Natural Philosopher wrote:
in Suffolk there have hardly BEEN any admissions. 300 cases in total.
Its working HERE.

You've failed to understand the progress of this varies by area in the
UK?
Same as in other countries?

We aren't.

We may be wrecking the economy, and not helping the country's health.

London is another country. If they think they are invulnerable and the
tories are lying to em, let em all die.

And if everyone in London dies, who is going to provide for you?

But then you never could see beyond the end of your nose...

We won't need any help if houses become affordable once more.


If prices drop, which is likely, it will be a prime time for Buy to Let.

There won't be money for social housing, nor people to get mortgages,
people will be forced to rent.

Those with capital to invest will be ideally placed to buy up cheap
property and rent it out.

But it will be tricky to decide when to buy.
when it has stopped dropping.

The Government won't be able to afford to prevent it.

On Sun, 12 Apr 2020 06:42:25 +1000, cantankerous trolling geezer Rodent
Speed, the auto-contradicting senile sociopath, blabbered, again:

FLUSH the trolling senile asshole's latest troll****

06:42??? Sociopaths like you really know NO shame AT ALL, eh, you
86-year-old senile sociopath? LOL

--
addressing nym-shifting senile Rodent:
"You on the other hand are a heavyweight bull****ter who demonstrates
his particular prowess at it every day."
MID:

tim... wrote:

"Vir Campestris" wrote in message
...
On 10/04/2020 00:11, Fredxx wrote:
They will only know that when they have tested sufficient of the
population for numbers of those infected. We have no idea what proportion
of the population are infected or the rate of new infections.

The real question is when will we know the NHS can cope?

Lets be optimistic, lets assume 2% of the population will need admission
to a hospital before herd immunity kicks in sufficiently. That's 1
million patients. Each one that survives, probably 1/2, will need a bed
for 1 or 2 weeks. That's a lot of beds, or a very long time to reach herd
immunity.

My numbers may be off, but that should paint a picture of how this might
pan out.

I went and looked at the South Korea figures earlier.

They've been carrying out extremely widespread contact tracing and
testing, and seem to have the epidemic under control. Unlike some
countries I have some faith in their numbers.

have that archived that by banning entry to the country of ALL foreigners

something that we seem reluctant to consider

tim


Unless you also ban entry to all residents as well that is not going to
help very much. There is nothing about the virus that stops returning
UK citizens catching it.

--

Roger Hayter

Vir Campestris posted
On 11/04/2020 11:55, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
London, which is ahead of most of the rest of this country, is showing an
encouraging trend as regards new hospital admissions. Things will be a lot
clearer in a week's time. But total numbers in hospital will rather
obviously go up, as will deaths. As these lag admissions.

It's down to doubling in 8 days when it was every 5.

I'm glad I don't live in London...

It wouldn't surprise me if most people in London have already had it.

--
Algernon

In article ,
Algernon Goss-Custard wrote:
Vir Campestris posted
On 11/04/2020 11:55, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
London, which is ahead of most of the rest of this country, is showing an
encouraging trend as regards new hospital admissions. Things will be a lot
clearer in a week's time. But total numbers in hospital will rather
obviously go up, as will deaths. As these lag admissions.

It's down to doubling in 8 days when it was every 5.

I'm glad I don't live in London...

It wouldn't surprise me if most people in London have already had it.

Someone else who doesn't know London. ;-)

I don't know of anyone personally who has it.

--
*I don't know what your problem is, but I'll bet it's hard to pronounce

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

"Roger Hayter" wrote in message
...
tim... wrote:

"Vir Campestris" wrote in message
...
On 10/04/2020 00:11, Fredxx wrote:
They will only know that when they have tested sufficient of the
population for numbers of those infected. We have no idea what
proportion
of the population are infected or the rate of new infections.

The real question is when will we know the NHS can cope?

Lets be optimistic, lets assume 2% of the population will need
admission
to a hospital before herd immunity kicks in sufficiently. That's 1
million patients. Each one that survives, probably 1/2, will need a
bed
for 1 or 2 weeks. That's a lot of beds, or a very long time to reach
herd
immunity.

My numbers may be off, but that should paint a picture of how this
might
pan out.

I went and looked at the South Korea figures earlier.

They've been carrying out extremely widespread contact tracing and
testing, and seem to have the epidemic under control. Unlike some
countries I have some faith in their numbers.

have that archived that by banning entry to the country of ALL foreigners

something that we seem reluctant to consider

tim


Unless you also ban entry to all residents as well that is not going to
help very much.

of course

they won't be leaving either

It's why all thoughts of a foreign summer holiday are pie in the sky

tim

On 12/04/2020 12:27, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
Someone else who doesn't know London.;-)

I don't know of anyone personally who has it.

At least one person in my office has had it, and been open about. I
think from mgmt comments that someone else does too - but doesn't want
that shared.

I suspect I might have it come to that - I have had a bit of a cough,
and so has my wife. She's also been feeling tired. On the other hand it
could be any one of a hundred other bugs. Like the one I picked up in
California just before COVID-19 got going.

Our office has ~60 people, and is Cambridge based - not a hotspot area.

Andy

In article ,
Vir Campestris wrote:
On 12/04/2020 12:27, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
Someone else who doesn't know London.;-)

I don't know of anyone personally who has it.

At least one person in my office has had it, and been open about. I
think from mgmt comments that someone else does too - but doesn't want
that shared.

I suspect I might have it come to that - I have had a bit of a cough,
and so has my wife. She's also been feeling tired. On the other hand it
could be any one of a hundred other bugs. Like the one I picked up in
California just before COVID-19 got going.

Our office has ~60 people, and is Cambridge based - not a hotspot area.

It's very likely that because I'm old, and most of my friends being old
too, so no longer working, that we've avoided the most likely ways of
catching it, like being in a packed train or whatever.

--
*They told me I had type-A blood, but it was a Type-O.*

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.

On 12/04/2020 12:27, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
Someone else who doesn't know London. ;-)
I don't know of anyone personally who has it.

I know of three people that have died from it

The father of a colleague
The neighbour of a friend
The cousin of one of my son's friends

On 13/04/2020 18:20, Mark Carver wrote:
On 12/04/2020 12:27, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
Someone else who doesn't know London. ;-)
I don't know of anyone personally who has it.

I know of three people that have died from it

The father of a colleague
The neighbour of a friend
The cousin of one of my son's friends



Plow**** doesen't have any friends.

--

In article ,
Mark Carver wrote:
On 12/04/2020 12:27, Dave Plowman (News) wrote:
Someone else who doesn't know London. ;-)
I don't know of anyone personally who has it.

I know of three people that have died from it

The father of a colleague
The neighbour of a friend
The cousin of one of my son's friends

That's very sad.

--
*Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere may be happy.

Dave Plowman London SW
To e-mail, change noise into sound.