http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners except in the case of negative equity.
Come Brexit, we can cut down migration to those we need and house prices will fall some more.
But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

On 03/05/2016 16:26, harry wrote:
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners except in the case of negative equity.
Come Brexit, we can cut down migration to those we need and house prices will fall some more.
But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.


Not sure it matters too much unless it takes you into negative equity.
I sold in 2010 and took a £20k hit I sold and made £111k profit, the
house I bought took an even bigger hit as I got it for £35k less than
the asking price, but then I was the buyer and not desperate.

harry wrote

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners
except in the case of negative equity.
Come Brexit,

Taint gunna happen, you watch.

Just like your prediction of a great swag of UKIP
seats in Westminster didn't, in fact they HALVED.

we can cut down migration to those we need

And kick the rabid bigots like you back
where your ancestors came from, europe.

and house prices will fall some more.

Bet they don't.

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

You first.

Rod Speed wrote:
harry wrote

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners
except in the case of negative equity.
Come Brexit,

Taint gunna happen, you watch.

Just like your prediction of a great swag of UKIP
seats in Westminster didn't, in fact they HALVED.

we can cut down migration to those we need

And kick the rabid bigots like you back
where your ancestors came from, europe.

and house prices will fall some more.

Bet they don't.

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

You first.

Stupid Australian ****** you are.
http://www.sensationbot.com/jschat.php?db=rodspeed
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...g/arbvFRAzMq0J

"Mr Pounder Esquire" wrote in message
...
Stupid Australian ****** you are.
http://www.sensationbot.com/jschat.php?db=rodspeed
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!ms...g/arbvFRAzMq0J

I can't argue with that but superdick might try.

Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just surprised
nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive long to
remember the last times it?

I don't think its wise using property to generate a return of themagnitde
expected. its this greed that caused the mess in the first place. OK so
interest rates are still low, but we seem to be obsessed with maximising
gain when we should instead be looking at trying to be happy in ourlives.
Brian

--
----- -
This newsgroup posting comes to you directly from...
The Sofa of Brian Gaff...

Blind user, so no pictures please!
"harry" wrote in message
...
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners except in the case of negative
equity.
Come Brexit, we can cut down migration to those we need and house prices
will fall some more.
But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

In message , Brian Gaff
writes
Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just surprised
nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive long to
remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s. Since then,
prices have been up and down like a yo yo. We are regularly warned that
house prices are going to either boom or bust. Why have house prices
been volatile over the last 40 years, but not the previous 40 years?
Cannot all be blamed on the Thatcher Effect or immigration :-)

--
Graeme

Brian Gaff wrote

Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive
long to remember the last times it?

I don't think its wise using property to generate a return of the
magnitde expected. its this greed that caused the mess in the first place.
OK so interest rates are still low, but we seem to be obsessed with
maximising gain when we should instead be looking at trying to be happy in
our lives.

Bit hard to do that when buying a house to live
in is completely unaffordable for so many now.

"harry" wrote in message
...
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners except in the case of
negative equity.
Come Brexit, we can cut down migration to those we need and house prices
will fall some more.
But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

On 03/05/2016 19:58, Rod Speed wrote:
harry wrote

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash


I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners
except in the case of negative equity.

FWIW, I think it'll hit London much as the 1989 crash. Soon.

It'll likely affect the higher end of the market elsewhere, and maybe
10% at the lower end.

And on BTL landlords - that's all quite fragile at the moment. If they
sell up, then yes, there'll be a glut of lower end homes.

Come Brexit,

Taint gunna happen, you watch.


It's looking unlikely.

Just like your prediction of a great swag of UKIP
seats in Westminster didn't, in fact they HALVED.

we can cut down migration to those we need

And kick the rabid bigots like you back
where your ancestors came from, europe.

and house prices will fall some more.

Bet they don't.


I can't see how they can keep rising, especially in London. Shortage is
fuelling the price rises - not of total properties as such (although
that's a huge variable), but transactions.

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.


I'd be inclined to agree. Not a time to move 'up the ladder'.

You first.


--
Cheers, Rob

News wrote
Brian Gaff wrote

Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there.
I'm just surprised nobody expects it. Its not as if you have
to have been alive long to remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s. Since then,
prices have been up and down like a yo yo. We are regularly warned that
house prices are going to either boom or bust. Why have house prices
been volatile over the last 40 years, but not the previous 40 years?

Basically because the banks allow so many more to speculate in property.

Cannot all be blamed on the Thatcher Effect or immigration :-)

Certainly the swings cant.

RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harry wrote

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/per...fears-of-crash

I 'spect it'll trickle down to the cheaper houses.
Well, it only affects multiple house owners
except in the case of negative equity.

FWIW, I think it'll hit London much as the 1989 crash. Soon.

I doubt it.

It'll likely affect the higher end of the market elsewhere, and maybe 10%
at the lower end.

And on BTL landlords - that's all quite fragile at the moment. If they
sell up, then yes, there'll be a glut of lower end homes.

Bet there isnt.

Come Brexit,

Taint gunna happen, you watch.

It's looking unlikely.

Just like your prediction of a great swag of UKIP
seats in Westminster didn't, in fact they HALVED.

we can cut down migration to those we need

And kick the rabid bigots like you back
where your ancestors came from, europe.

and house prices will fall some more.

Bet they don't.

I can't see how they can keep rising, especially in London.

That's a different issue to them falling.

Shortage is fuelling the price rises

And there is no evidence that that shortage is stopping.

- not of total properties as such (although that's a huge variable), but
transactions.

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

I'd be inclined to agree. Not a time to move 'up the ladder'.

One of our academics proclaimed the same thing a
couple of years ago and ended up spectacularly wrong.

You first.

On 04/05/16 08:07, News wrote:
In message , Brian Gaff
writes
Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised
nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive long to
remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s.

30s were the beginning of the owner-occupier boom that has only reversed
since 2008. We have probably reached a peak because there is a limit to
the utility of owner occupation, and low inflation since the 80s has
removed much of the incentive to borrow as much as you can afford in the
expectation that inflation will wipe out the debt.

last 20 years figures charted from Land Registry HPI: http://djclark.co.uk/



Since then,
prices have been up and down like a yo yo. We are regularly warned that
house prices are going to either boom or bust. Why have house prices
been volatile over the last 40 years, but not the previous 40 years?
Cannot all be blamed on the Thatcher Effect or immigration :-)






--
djc

(–€Ì¿Ä¹Ì¯–€Ì¿ Ì¿)
No low-hanging fruit, just a lot of small berries up a tall tree.

DJC wrote
News wrote
Brian Gaff wrote

Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive
long to remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s.

30s were the beginning of the owner-occupier boom

Yes, because that is when the banks started to lend for that.

that has only reversed since 2008.

It did reverse during the Great Depression too. And stalled during the war
too.

We have probably reached a peak

Yes.

because there is a limit to the utility of owner occupation,

Nope, because home ownership is much more difficult now
due to the dramatic rise in the price of houses which makes it
much harder for kids particularly to buy their own houses now.

and low inflation since the 80s has removed much of the incentive to
borrow as much as you can afford in the expectation that inflation will
wipe out the debt.

That wasnt the main driver for home ownership.

It was a big driver for the investment in property, particularly
when renting out the property would essentially pay the mortgage
and with many jurisdictions allowing negative gearing.

last 20 years figures charted from Land Registry HPI:
http://djclark.co.uk/

Since then, prices have been up and down like a yo yo. We are regularly
warned that house prices are going to either boom or bust. Why have
house prices been volatile over the last 40 years, but not the previous
40 years?
Cannot all be blamed on the Thatcher Effect or immigration :-)

In message , DJC writes


last 20 years figures charted from Land Registry HPI: http://djclark.co.uk/

Interesting. Thank you.
--
Graeme

On Wednesday, 4 May 2016 08:07:45 UTC+1, News wrote:
In message , Brian Gaff
writes
Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just surprised
nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive long to
remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s. Since then,
prices have been up and down like a yo yo. We are regularly warned that
house prices are going to either boom or bust. Why have house prices
been volatile over the last 40 years, but not the previous 40 years?
Cannot all be blamed on the Thatcher Effect or immigration :-)

--
Graeme

Speculation.
Certain people with large property portfolios want immigration because it drives up house prices.
A completely new phenominum.

On 04/05/2016 11:01, Rod Speed wrote:
RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harry wrote
snip

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

I'd be inclined to agree. Not a time to move 'up the ladder'.

One of our academics proclaimed the same thing a
couple of years ago and ended up spectacularly wrong.


Yep, and I could well be wrong too. It's just on the balance of
probability, and looking at the variables I'm familiar with, it's gonna
happen.

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.


--
Cheers, Rob

On 04/05/2016 22:07, Rod Speed wrote:
DJC wrote
News wrote
Brian Gaff wrote

Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been
alive long to remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s.

30s were the beginning of the owner-occupier boom

Yes, because that is when the banks started to lend for that.


It was because of rent controls, prompting landlords to sell/not invest,
that in turn created the 'mortgage product':

http://researchbriefings.parliament....ummary/SN06747


--
Cheers, Rob

On 04/05/2016 21:17, DJC wrote:
On 04/05/16 08:07, News wrote:
In message , Brian Gaff
writes
Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised
nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive long to
remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s.

30s were the beginning of the owner-occupier boom that has only reversed
since 2008. We have probably reached a peak because there is a limit to
the utility of owner occupation, and low inflation since the 80s has
removed much of the incentive to borrow as much as you can afford in the
expectation that inflation will wipe out the debt.


'Utility' is a pretty difficult one to bottle. It's still a huge
cultural 'must have' for a lot of the UK. It won't take much for it to
swing back to low-70%s . . .


last 20 years figures charted from Land Registry HPI: http://djclark.co.uk/



Impressive, thanks!


--
Cheers, Rob

RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harry wrote

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

I'd be inclined to agree. Not a time to move 'up the ladder'.

One of our academics proclaimed the same thing a
couple of years ago and ended up spectacularly wrong.

Yep, and I could well be wrong too.

Yeah, bet you are unless Britain leaves the EU and decides to
not let any EUians into Britain. Bet that doesn’t happen even
if Britain does leave the EU, because so many Brits want to
move to europe either temporarily or semi permanently and
stopping EUians from coming to Britain would stop Brits moving
to the EU and that would have severe electoral consequences
for the Torys who IMO will be the govt for the foreseeable future
now that Labour has actually been stupid enough to go for Corbyn.

It's just on the balance of probability, and looking at the variables I'm
familiar with, it's gonna happen.

I don’t believe that, essentially because its obvious that the
property prices are being driven by immigration and the
very low interest rates which make property speculation so
easy to do and by the much too low rate of building of new
houses. Can't see either of those changing any time soon.

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

Bet you're wrong on that.

RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
DJC wrote
News wrote
Brian Gaff wrote

Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive
long to remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s.

30s were the beginning of the owner-occupier boom

Yes, because that is when the banks started to lend for that.

It was because of rent controls, prompting landlords to sell/
not invest, that in turn created the 'mortgage product':

Nope, because we saw the same boom in owner occupation
in other countrys at the same time that didnt have rent controls.

http://researchbriefings.parliament....ummary/SN06747

Just because someone claims something that conflicts with the evidence...

In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter? I was
selling (relocation) around 1992/3 when prices were dropping, and many
properties were not selling. Initially depressing, as the house I was
selling had decreased in value, at least on paper, but that also meant
that when I did sell, there was a lot of choice for a replacement house,
and of course those prices had dropped, too.
--
Graeme

In article ,
News wrote:
In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter?

If they have a mortgage it might. The amount owed might be more than the
property was worth.

--
from KT24 in Surrey, England

"News" wrote in message
...
In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

It does if you have a mortgage - and you want/need to move.

The mortgage company will not offer you a mortgage on the same terms (or
even offer you a mortgage at all), for a house of the exact same value if
the current LTV is less then the previous LTV.

tim

"RJH" wrote in message
...
On 04/05/2016 21:17, DJC wrote:
On 04/05/16 08:07, News wrote:
In message , Brian Gaff
writes
Things go in cycles, always have done. Nothing new there. I'm just
surprised
nobody expects it. Its not as if you have to have been alive long to
remember the last times it?

Interesting, thinking about longer term, though. I cannot find long
term figures (quickly), but logic suggests house prices would have
fallen in the 30s (crash), risen after WWII (shortages) but then rose
fairly steadily until the housing crash of the early 80s.

30s were the beginning of the owner-occupier boom that has only reversed
since 2008. We have probably reached a peak because there is a limit to
the utility of owner occupation, and low inflation since the 80s has
removed much of the incentive to borrow as much as you can afford in the
expectation that inflation will wipe out the debt.

'Utility' is a pretty difficult one to bottle. It's still a huge cultural
'must have' for a lot of the UK.

It won't take much for it to swing back to low-70%s . . .

If it does happen it will be because houses are outside
of the reach of younger people particularly now.

last 20 years figures charted from Land Registry HPI:
http://djclark.co.uk/

Impressive, thanks!

On 05/05/16 10:47, Tim Streater wrote:
In article ,
harry wrote:

A completely new phenominum.

Are you sure you don't mean "phenominium" ?

We are British after all.

Definite proof that you don't have to be illiterate to be Green, but it
always helps.


--
€œIt is hard to imagine a more stupid decision or more dangerous way of
making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people
who pay no price for being wrong.€�

Thomas Sowell

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 8:27:47 AM UTC+1, News wrote:
In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter? I was
selling (relocation) around 1992/3 when prices were dropping, and many
properties were not selling. Initially depressing, as the house I was
selling had decreased in value, at least on paper, but that also meant
that when I did sell, there was a lot of choice for a replacement house,
and of course those prices had dropped, too.
--
Graeme

Exactly, if you have just one house and you live in it, then it doesn't really matter much what house prices do.

Robert

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 9:39:42 AM UTC+1, tim... wrote:
"News" wrote in message
...
In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

It does if you have a mortgage - and you want/need to move.

The mortgage company will not offer you a mortgage on the same terms (or
even offer you a mortgage at all), for a house of the exact same value if
the current LTV is less then the previous LTV.


That's a good point.

R

In message , charles
writes
In article ,
News wrote:

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter?

If they have a mortgage it might. The amount owed might be more than the
property was worth.

True, but only a problem for those wishing to move house, although it
really is a problem for them, of course.
--
Graeme

On Thursday, 5 May 2016 07:32:42 UTC+1, RJH wrote:
On 04/05/2016 11:01, Rod Speed wrote:
RJH wrote
Rod Speed wrote
harry wrote
snip

But now's the time to sell/downsize if you're thinking on it.

I'd be inclined to agree. Not a time to move 'up the ladder'.

One of our academics proclaimed the same thing a
couple of years ago and ended up spectacularly wrong.


Yep, and I could well be wrong too. It's just on the balance of
probability, and looking at the variables I'm familiar with, it's gonna
happen.

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I think that may depend on the property, I'm think that therse hogh rise apartments over looking canels and the like will drop in value at teh moment they seem to be about 350k to 700k for a 1-2 bed flat living halfway up a tower block will fall in valuse once lived in for a while and once you rnotice you can here next door farting because of the thin walls then you can actually smell the fart too, prices may drop.

I'm tempped to view one of these places near me in stratford or leyton just to see what they are really like inside they may look good.....

Anyone else been tempted or have done as the estate agents and the like seem to be encouraging parents to buy these to help their kids on the property ladder.

On Thursday, 5 May 2016 08:27:47 UTC+1, News wrote:
In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter? I was
selling (relocation) around 1992/3 when prices were dropping, and many
properties were not selling. Initially depressing, as the house I was
selling had decreased in value, at least on paper, but that also meant
that when I did sell, there was a lot of choice for a replacement house,
and of course those prices had dropped, too.
--
Graeme

Downsize when prices are up.
Upsize when prices are down.
Always worked for me.

On Thursday, 5 May 2016 08:58:24 UTC+1, charles wrote:
In article ,
News wrote:
In message , RJH writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter?

If they have a mortgage it might. The amount owed might be more than the
property was worth.

--
from KT24 in Surrey, England

I have never borrowed money for any purpose.
Keep the parasites off your back.

"harry" wrote in message
...
On Thursday, 5 May 2016 08:58:24 UTC+1, charles wrote:
In article ,
News wrote:
In message , RJH
writes

Not that money is a reason not to move - just be prepared to accept
the
strong possibility that a property bought in London now is likely to
decrease in value over the next 5 years. IMHO.

I'm not really sure that is terribly important unless the owner dies or
moves into a nursing home or runs out of money etc.

For the majority of people, do falling prices really matter?

If they have a mortgage it might. The amount owed might be more than the
property was worth.

I have never borrowed money for any purpose.

More fool you.

Keep the parasites off your back.

And limits what you can do severely too.