On 9/17/2011 6:13 PM, wrote:
On Sep 17, 9:04 pm,
wrote:

Dan, as always, I watch Intade's market for Obama re-election

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=743474

I have it bookmarked and check it often.

Right now it is trading at 50%. This is real people betting real
money, it is not a "web straw poll".

Interesting. At 50% Obama is neither winning or losing against an
unnamed Republican. That fits with my thinking. It is going to be
close and Obama may or may not get re-elected.

Dan



Right now any polling about who will win next year's election are pretty
much worthless. Polls are a snapshot in time. The election is over a
year away. No poll today is any good at telling us what next year will
be like.

But I did see a professor/political scientist that had a criteria that
he uses to measure 6 areas where a candidate needs to do well in and
according to him if a candidate scores high in these categories they
always win. In all the categories Obama did well so the guy predicts he
will win regardless of what the unemployment rate is.

We shall see. I am predicting Obama will win again. Check my prediction
in November. I told you I have a good track record. Unless it's a really
close election, a toss up, then it's anyone's guess.

Hawke