In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm



By Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY

Say you're in a canoe on a lake, dry and firmly seated. A fish swims by and you
lean over to take a look. You lean a little further, and a little further still,
until, with a surge of panic you realize you're starting to fall over. You being
to flail your arms, causing the canoe and you to rock wildly back and forth, but
it's no good: Over the side you go.

Now you're in a new stable state — treading water next to an upside down canoe.
And getting back to your former state — un-waterlogged in an upright canoe —
will take a lot more work than falling out did.

You've just experienced a tipping point.

However, if you've been following work over the past 30 years in systems theory,
you'll recognize this scenario as what scientists call a bifurcation point — the
moment when a stable system flips over into a new stable state, after a period
of rapid change.

Now some of the most prominent scientists in that field have published a new
paper on detecting early warning signals before a system changes. Titled
"Early-warning signals for critical transitions," the review paper is in this
week's issue of the journal Nature.

Though exceedingly complex, the gist of their work is simple: detecting patterns
that tend to emerge in systems just before they hit a tipping point, hopefully
in time to stop the process.

"This is a very important paper," says Brian Walker, a fellow at the Stockholm
Resilience Center at the University of Stockholm in Sweden.

"The big question they're trying to answer is, how the hell do you know when
it's coming? Is there any way you can get an inkling of a looming threshold,
something that might be a warning signal that you're getting to one of the
crucial transition points?"

"The fascinating thing is that we found that very different systems react the
same way and appear to obey the same universal laws as they are getting close to
a tipping point," says Marten Scheffer, lead author on the paper and an
ecologist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

Work on these theories began in the 1970s. At a meeting of researchers looking
at these signals convened by Scheffer in Holland in 2007, scientists began to
see examples in all sorts of places.

"We began to realize that there was really pretty cool and fundamental thing
going on here," says Stephen Carpenter, one of the paper's authors and a lake
ecologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Discerning these tipping points before they happen would be huge, says Carpenter.

"Managing the environment is like driving a car in the dark in the fog on the
edge of a cliff. You know the edge is out there, but it's dark and foggy," he
says. "We're really great at knowing where thresholds are after we fall off the
cliff, but that's not very helpful."

What's fascinating about this concept of bifurcation points is that like
fractals (shapes and patterns that reoccur at different sizes throughout systems
and in nature), once you know about it, you realize that it's everywhere, you
just hadn't realized it before.

Examples of systems that these critical transitions have been found in include:

•algae blooms in lakes
•asthma attacks
•climate change
•desertification
•epileptic seizures
•fisheries collapse
•migraines
•financial systems

....

Not yet predictive

While their work can't predict all transition points, they've begun to tease out
universal principles, says Scheffer.

What the researches have shown is that these early warning signals seem to occur
differently in different kinds of systems, but there's some regularity to them
within a set of systems.

Systems can also being to "flicker," rapidly oscillating between to states
before finally settling into a stable one.

There's also an interesting finding that as a system gets close to tipping, it
becomes more like systems around it. This is seen often in financial markets and
in social settings where the attitudes of individuals towards certain issues are
affected by what their peers think.

Another warning signal is variability — a lot of change back and forth.

....

"cavelamb" wrote in message
m...
In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm


snip

That's very interesting stuff, Richard. I read the rest of the article and
I'll try to make some time for the paper -- at the library. _Nature_ wants
my money g.

(Not for a while, though. I finally got down to reading _The Trouble With
Physics_ by Lee Smolin and I'm in for a slog...)

Thanks.

--
Ed Huntress

Ed Huntress wrote:
"cavelamb" wrote in message
m...
In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm


snip

That's very interesting stuff, Richard. I read the rest of the article and
I'll try to make some time for the paper -- at the library. _Nature_ wants
my money g.

(Not for a while, though. I finally got down to reading _The Trouble With
Physics_ by Lee Smolin and I'm in for a slog...)

Thanks.

--
Ed Huntress




LOL! - Light weight!

"cavelamb" wrote in message
...
Ed Huntress wrote:
"cavelamb" wrote in message
m...
In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm


snip

That's very interesting stuff, Richard. I read the rest of the article
and I'll try to make some time for the paper -- at the library. _Nature_
wants my money g.

(Not for a while, though. I finally got down to reading _The Trouble With
Physics_ by Lee Smolin and I'm in for a slog...)

Thanks.

--
Ed Huntress


LOL! - Light weight!

String theory for we hoi polloi. g I don't expect to understand string
theory but I do expect to learn where the controversies lie, because Smolin
is probably the best there is at describing them.

--
Ed Huntress

Ed Huntress wrote:
"cavelamb" wrote in message
...
Ed Huntress wrote:
"cavelamb" wrote in message
m...
In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm

snip

That's very interesting stuff, Richard. I read the rest of the article
and I'll try to make some time for the paper -- at the library. _Nature_
wants my money g.

(Not for a while, though. I finally got down to reading _The Trouble With
Physics_ by Lee Smolin and I'm in for a slog...)

Thanks.

--
Ed Huntress

LOL! - Light weight!

String theory for we hoi polloi. g I don't expect to understand string
theory but I do expect to learn where the controversies lie, because Smolin
is probably the best there is at describing them.

--
Ed Huntress



It's like Quantum Physics, Ed.

If you think you understand it, you haven't read enough!

Ed Huntress wrote:
"cavelamb" wrote in message
...
Ed Huntress wrote:
"cavelamb" wrote in message
m...
In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm

snip

That's very interesting stuff, Richard. I read the rest of the article
and I'll try to make some time for the paper -- at the library. _Nature_
wants my money g.

(Not for a while, though. I finally got down to reading _The Trouble With
Physics_ by Lee Smolin and I'm in for a slog...)

Thanks.

--
Ed Huntress

LOL! - Light weight!

String theory for we hoi polloi. g I don't expect to understand string
theory but I do expect to learn where the controversies lie, because Smolin
is probably the best there is at describing them.

--
Ed Huntress



For the rest of the crew...

Subject(s):
SCIENCE: Science - Physics

Description:
In this groundbreaking book, the renowned theoretical physicist Lee Smolin
argues that physics — the basis for all other sciences — has lost its way. For
more than two centuries, our understanding of the laws of nature expanded
rapidly. But today, despite our best efforts, we know nothing more about these
laws than we knew in the 1970s. Why is physics suddenly in trouble? And what can
we do about it?

One of the major problems, according to Smolin, is string theory: an ambitious
attempt to formulate a “theory of everything” that explains all the particles
and forces of nature and how the universe came to be. With its exotic new
particles and parallel universes, string theory has captured the public’s
imagination and seduced many physicists.

But as Smolin reveals, there’s a deep flaw in the theory: no part of it has been
tested, and no one knows how to test it. In fact, the theory appears to come in
an infinite number of versions, meaning that no experiment will ever be able to
prove it false. As a scientific theory, it fails. And because it has soaked up
the lion’s share of funding, attracted some of the best minds, and effectively
penalized young physicists for pursuing other avenues, it is dragging the rest
of physics down with it.

With clarity, passion, and authority, Smolin charts the rise and fall of string
theory and takes a fascinating look at what will replace it. A group of young
theorists has begun to develop exciting ideas that, unlike string theory, are
testable. Smolin not only tells us who and what to watch for in the coming
years, he offers novel solutions for seeking out and nurturing the best new
talent—giving us a chance, at long last, of finding the next Einstein.

cavelamb wrote:
In case you might have missed it, I think this one is important...


Predicting tipping points before they occur


http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science...ng-point_N.htm



By Elizabeth Weise, USA TODAY

Say you're in a canoe on a lake, dry and firmly seated. A fish swims by
and you lean over to take a look. You lean a little further, and a
little further still, until, with a surge of panic you realize you're
starting to fall over. You being to flail your arms, causing the canoe
and you to rock wildly back and forth, but it's no good: Over the side
you go.

Now you're in a new stable state — treading water next to an upside down
canoe. And getting back to your former state — un-waterlogged in an
upright canoe — will take a lot more work than falling out did.

You've just experienced a tipping point.

However, if you've been following work over the past 30 years in systems
theory, you'll recognize this scenario as what scientists call a
bifurcation point — the moment when a stable system flips over into a
new stable state, after a period of rapid change.

Now some of the most prominent scientists in that field have published a
new paper on detecting early warning signals before a system changes.
Titled "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," the review
paper is in this week's issue of the journal Nature.

Though exceedingly complex, the gist of their work is simple: detecting
patterns that tend to emerge in systems just before they hit a tipping
point, hopefully in time to stop the process.

"This is a very important paper," says Brian Walker, a fellow at the
Stockholm Resilience Center at the University of Stockholm in Sweden.

"The big question they're trying to answer is, how the hell do you know
when it's coming? Is there any way you can get an inkling of a looming
threshold, something that might be a warning signal that you're getting
to one of the crucial transition points?"

"The fascinating thing is that we found that very different systems
react the same way and appear to obey the same universal laws as they
are getting close to a tipping point," says Marten Scheffer, lead author
on the paper and an ecologist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

Work on these theories began in the 1970s. At a meeting of researchers
looking at these signals convened by Scheffer in Holland in 2007,
scientists began to see examples in all sorts of places.

"We began to realize that there was really pretty cool and fundamental
thing going on here," says Stephen Carpenter, one of the paper's authors
and a lake ecologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Discerning these tipping points before they happen would be huge, says
Carpenter.

"Managing the environment is like driving a car in the dark in the fog
on the edge of a cliff. You know the edge is out there, but it's dark
and foggy," he says. "We're really great at knowing where thresholds are
after we fall off the cliff, but that's not very helpful."

What's fascinating about this concept of bifurcation points is that like
fractals (shapes and patterns that reoccur at different sizes throughout
systems and in nature), once you know about it, you realize that it's
everywhere, you just hadn't realized it before.

Examples of systems that these critical transitions have been found in
include:

•algae blooms in lakes
•asthma attacks
•climate change
•desertification
•epileptic seizures
•fisheries collapse
•migraines
•financial systems

...

Not yet predictive

While their work can't predict all transition points, they've begun to
tease out universal principles, says Scheffer.

What the researches have shown is that these early warning signals seem
to occur differently in different kinds of systems, but there's some
regularity to them within a set of systems.

Systems can also being to "flicker," rapidly oscillating between to
states before finally settling into a stable one.

There's also an interesting finding that as a system gets close to
tipping, it becomes more like systems around it. This is seen often in
financial markets and in social settings where the attitudes of
individuals towards certain issues are affected by what their peers think.

Another warning signal is variability — a lot of change back and forth.

...

Reminds me of an article I read in some scientific publication long time
ago calling the point of no return between one state and the next the
catastrophe point.

cheers
T.Alan

Thanks a lot for mentioning this, I just bought The Tipping Point
Book, the subject is interesting, although, I am afraid, its relevance
to financial events is less than the article author believes.

i