On Mon, 17 Aug 2015 10:36:27 -0400, micky
wrote:

In sci.electronics.repair, on Sun, 16 Aug 2015 06:10:23 +0000 (UTC), ceg
wrote:

The cellphone paradox - where are all the accidents?

The Fermi Paradox is essentially a situation where we "assume" something
that "seems obvious"; but, if that assumption is true, then something else
"should" be happening. But it's not.

Hence, the paradox.

Same thing with the cellphone (distracted-driving) paradox.

Where are all the accidents?

Radio just said that traffic deaths were up 14% this year and injuries
1/3


And did you note that they did NOT talk about rates. The amount of
miles people drive varies from year to year. It's very likely that
the miles driven went up because
1) employment and the economy improved slightly
2) the price of gas dropped quite a bit.

As a result of miles driven going up, and all other things remaining
the same such as how safely people drive, the NUMBER of accidents WILL
go up, even thought in actuality, nothing has changed in the safety
sphere.

I've see that same ploy by the safety Nazi's time after time. Whenever
they need a headline they discover that the total number of
accidents/fatalities/spilled hot coffee has increased while completely
ignoring the actual RATEs, which are the ONLY way to even begin to
make meaningful comparisons on these questions.

Whatever will get them the headlines is what the put in their press
release whether it's meaningful or not.



On track to be the worst year since 2007, when fatalities were 45,000, I
think she said. If not that, then 40, 000.

So traffic deaths are up in general because they were down to 35,000 for
quite a few years.

Reason given is low gas prices and more diiving, but you know you're not
getting a complete analysis from top-of-the-hour news. And it still
ruins your prmeise that accidents are not up.



They don't seem to exist.
At least not in the United States.
Not by the federal government's own accident figures.

1. Current Census, Transportation: Motor Vehicle Accidents and Fatalities
http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...atalities.html

2. Motor Vehicle Accidents—Number and Deaths: 1990 to 2009
http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/12s1103.pdf

3. Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths in Metropolitan Areas — United States, 2009
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6128a2.htm

If you have more complete government tables for "accidents" (not deaths,
but "ACCIDENTS"), please post them since the accidents don't seem to exist
but, if cellphone distracted driving is hazardous (which I would think it
is), then they must be there, somewhere, hidden in the data.

Such is the cellphone paradox.

On Tue, 18 Aug 2015 21:27:48 -0700, Ashton Crusher wrote:

As a result of miles driven going up, and all other things remaining
the same such as how safely people drive, the NUMBER of accidents WILL
go up, even thought in actuality, nothing has changed in the safety
sphere.

I agree that the accident RATE is what's important.
Not number of accidents, nor injuries or fatalities.

The first order problem is simply the accident rate.
Any good data that focuses objectively on the accident RATE is good data.