On Fri, 08 Apr 2005 14:18:32 GMT, the renowned "Pete C."
wrote:

Spehro Pefhany wrote:


After the pending re-unification it may not matter much...

I think it's pretty unlikely that we will see any change in the status
quo anytime soon. I expect there will be plenty of posturing, but
neither side has the will to make a move given the inevitable
consequences.

Yes, the status quo is benefitting everyone at the moment. Including a
lot of influential Americans as well as Chinese on and off Taiwan.

Folks in Taiwan are fairly happy with the current situation so they
aren't likely to change much.

Some more than others. Most business people that I know in Taiwan
would like to see closer ties and fewer restrictions, while there are
others who are pushing for independence. There are so many Taiwanese
living on the mainland now, and so much of their investment money
flowing there.... and the interdependence (more like dependence) is on
a sharp uptrend. Mainland China is their largest export market, by a
substantial margin, as well as the location of a lot of their
factories.

China will posture up a storm, but they
know it would be disastrous to invade Taiwan.

I really doubt they will ever have to. The way it's going, it will
fall into their hands anyway, in time. Perhaps in a similar way as
Hong Kong and Macau have, with two (human) generations of disparate
economic systems promised.

Even if the US did not assist Taiwan militarily, a US embargo on China
trade would pretty well implode their economy.

Assuming the US could afford to sustain an effective embargo on China.
There may come a time when it won't be worth it. They are a lot more
motivated on this matter, and they have a certain amount of support
inside Taiwan (including inside the military and police as well as the
business community), and a lot outside due in part to their growing
economic clout. And it's very early days yet, they are still rather
weak in almost every way.

True, but the point is that the differences in quality are steadily
shrinking. In the not too distant future you may well be able to buy an
item made in China or Taiwan or wherever that is cheaper than one made
in the US or Germany or wherever, but the quality will be comparable.

Pete C.

I suppose that's inevitable provided trade barriers are not a strong
factor. The good should push out the bad.


Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany
--
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