Covid-19 apps, what a waste
On Wed, 16 Sep 2020 22:31:48 +0200, Carlos E.R. wrote:
Of course that the app is not "*the* solution", nor "a complete
solution". It is just a tool that can help sometimes. "A part of the
solution". That's enough for me.
Hi Carlos,
This is the first logically defensible statement you've said in a while.
o If the app does less harm than it does good, then it may be an OK deal.
There is "scarce" evidence these apps can even work in good situation:
Automated and partly automated contact tracing: a systematic review to inform the control of COVID-19
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30184-9/fulltext
"Evidence for the use of automated or partly automated contact-tracing
tools to contain severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
is scarce."
But the problem is that it has zero chance of working in the USA.
o So the app turns out to be a "false promise" that gets peoples hopes up.
o What Ever Happened to Digital Contact Tracing?
https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-ever-happened-digital-contact-tracing
"It will be an uphill battle even to hit the 10 percent mark in America"
"Under a range of assumptions, the percentage of the population needed
to be enrolled in automated contact tracing for outbreak control (Re1)
was estimated (eg, 40%-60% uptake required for Re1, assuming a 30% mean
transmission probability per contact event, if 75%-95% actively confirm
when they get infected"
Americans may as well pray upon a rosary for all the good it will do them.
o At least carrying around a placebo doesn't have security risks.
--
There is zero chance of these apps having any beneficial effect in the USA.
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