"Keema's Nan" wrote in message
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On 29 Sep 2019, Rod Speed wrote
(in article ):


"Keema's Nan" wrote in message
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On 29 Sep 2019, Rod Speed wrote
(in article ):


"Keema's Nan" wrote in message
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On 29 Sep 2019, Brian Gaff wrote
(in article ):

In your dreams.

Not at all.

Based on the latest polling figures of Con 37% Lab 25% LD 16%
Brexit
13%

Even you should have noticed that UKIP got something like 10%
in the polls and didnt manage even a single MP, just the one
refugee from the Torys whose constituency would have re-elected
him even if he had moved to the monster raving loony party.

The new 600 seat parliament (assuming that is adopted)
would have 367 Tories to 157 Labour and 19 LDs.

And when the general election happens, even you will
discover that the numbers are actually nothing like that.

Maybe,

No maybe about it.

but a 30% swing to Labour is just as unlikely

Completely impossible, actually.

In which case, there is zero chance of a Labour majority.

Yep, thats always been the case since the whole of scotland
gave up on Labour and the SNP wouldnt be seen dead in
a coalition with Labour to form govt and since that fool
Corbyn managed to end up top banana in Labour.

and especially so when the LDs are splitting the remain vote.

I doubt too many Labour voters would even consider the LDs.

And how do you explain the rapid drop in the Labour poll figure

Those havent mostly gone to the LDs.

and an equally rapid rise in the LD poll percentage?

Those have mostly not come from Labour. They are
mostly remainers who now have one party which has
said very unambiguously that they dont want the UK
to leave the EU and will revoke Article 59 to ensure that.

They couldnt care less what the referendum result was.

The Tories could cope easily with a majority of 10-15.

Yes, thats certainly quite possible when a no deal brexit works fine.

But not a 3 digit majority with half the county not wanting to leave the
EU..

Dont shoot the messenger.

I'm not shooting anyone, just pointing out that
a 3 digit majority for the Torys isnt going to happen
if they do manage to make brexit happen given that
half the country doesnt want brexit.

I am only quoting the prediction figures.

But dont understand that you cant take country wide
voting intention percentages and turn those into seats.
As should be obvious when you notice that while UKIP
did get over 10% in the polls before the last general
election, they didnt even get a single MP elected,
just one refugee from the Torys whose constituency
would have re-elected him even if he had joined
the monster raving loony party instead of UKIP.

Sure, part of that is because of how the FPP system
works and the fact that UKIP voters were spread
pretty evenly around the country, but its also true
that the Torys never get the same percentage of
seats as they get in the voting intension polls.
Thats because they appeal to more outside
the major cities and so they get lots of tory
voters where they already have enough to
get the tory MP elected.

Same thing happens with Labour in reverse.

A few % either way makes a difference between a Tory majority
of 50 and over 100; neither of which are going to worry the Tories.

It doesnt work like that with so many seats
dominated by Tory voters and Labour voters.

The old 650 seat parliament would be 386 Tory, 181 Labour and 26
LDs.

Pity about the polls before that particular general election.

I think that the only way that will happen is if most of the
rest stay home on poling day.
The whole point has been missed and as many said at the time,
regardless
of
you position on leave or stay, the referendum was flawed in so
many
ways.
No
threshold turn out , no majority based on the actual voters who
turned
out,
then both sides campaigns blatantly lying or over simplifying the
problem
of
leaving
Did nobody foresee what everyone else did here?

You just cant handle the truth.

You wouldnt know what the truth was if it bit you on your lard arse.

Ad hominems so quickly?

Thats not ad hominem, its a statement of fact.

Polls arent anything even remotely like anything like the truth.

They are better than nothing,

Yes, but nothing like the truth.

and far better than personal guesswork
masquerading as the truth.

Yes, but actual election results in the recent
elections is much better again than both.

If Labour had even a slim chance of getting the most seats, Corbyn
would have fallen over himself to have called an election weeks
ago.

Not necessarily if he believes the result would be better if he
waited.

If he believes that, then he needs to consider being sectioned.

Not necessarily if he can force no brexit at all given that something
like half the country doesnt want the UK to leave. If he can achieve
that, it would improve his general election prospects.

He cant €˜force a no Brexit

It could happen if the EU agrees to an extension and he
manages to achieve a no confidence motion and gets
enough to agree to have him caretaker PM and have
a second referendum which sees the remainers come
out on top and then revokes Article 50 before a general
election.

Unlikely given that he actually is a leaver himself and
hardly anyone is prepared to have him as caretaker
PM, but it might be achievable with someone who isnt
planning to stand in the next general election with
some like the SNP desperate to avoid any form of brexit.

as it is an EU requirement of A50 once the negotiating
period has come to an end, unless there is an agreed
extension - and Boris is not agreed.

Or if Article 50 is revoked.

Corbyn would have to unseat the PM to get anywhere near that scenario

Yes, but given that a big majority of MPs are remainers,
a no confidence motion may get up if they can agree
about who the caretaker PM will be, not Corbyn.

That delay would improve Labour's prospects in
a general election that happens before a brexit
because lots of Labour voters would never vote
LD and might well be fooled by Corbyn not
saying outright that he is a leaver.

- which would be hardly a democratic way to proceed,
given that Boris has more HoC seats than he does.

Sure, but Trots arent into democracy. They dont even believe
in parliament and are only involved in parliament as a means
to an end, to get rid of parliament all together. Most Labour
voters are too stupid to have even noticed that.

At least Corbyn knows the truth, although the snowflakes
will continue to believe his lies about why he cant call an
election at the moment however much he wants to.