On 25/02/18 12:45, David wrote:
On Sun, 25 Feb 2018 08:18:53 +0000, The Natural Philosopher wrote:

On 24/02/18 21:07, The Other Mike wrote:
On 24 Feb 2018 19:09:26 GMT, David wrote:

I do look at the site from time to time and from previous chats I
expect nuclear to be going hell for leather, wind and solar to be
doing what the weather dictates, and CCGT filling in the gaps, with
coal kicking in when the warm brown stuff hits the rotating object.
OCGT when all else fails.

Tonight coal is almost up against the stops and CCGT is just strolling
along at about 11 GW with plenty to spare.

Is there some kind of special offer on coal power at the moment?

Nothing other then using allocated hours under the Industrial Emissions
Directive, gas supplies in Europe being limited, selling into the
market gas bought on forward contracts and storage being topped up.

Ah yes. Gas has gone expoensive hasn't it? I spotted that but didnt
connect the two...

https://www.reuters.com/article/euro...old-snap-sees-
european-gas-prices-soar-as-supply-options-dwindle-idUSL8N1QD50V

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.ne...lingView/Index

Coal today and for the past 24 hours at 6.5 - 7GW is nowhere 'near the
stops'

There is currently 12781 MW of coal capacity 2-14 days ahead (same as
for today but that was declared Thursday)

Minimum margin for today was 14279MW at around 7pm

https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=ge...putusable-2-14

I am not sure how real that capacity reaslly is. When I have tried to
tot up power stations I cant get much over 8...

Gridwatch seems to have 10 GW as "against the stops" and into the amber at
around 8GW. Which was more or less where it was (didn't note the actual
number) at the time. I tend to view "into the amber" as "almost against
the stops".

Those stops are - as 'The other Mike' points out - somewhat arbitrary
and represent 'the most coal power ever seen on BM reports'

I've seen 25GW back in 2011, but the most last year was 11.4GW and we
lost another 2GW last year I think.

We are not yet in blackout territory, but a cold sunless period with one
or more power staions out of action aross Europe could make things marginal.



Certainly far more coal than we usually see, especially as gas is usually
a lot cheaper and quicker to wind up.

Except right now it isnt that cheap for some reason.

I think the note about the spike in gas prices because of the coming cold
snap may explain why it is suddenly economic to burn coal instead of gas.


The coal power stations have a certain amount of running hours left. If
the spot price is high enough they will be put online.

I havent checked BM reports for that. I should.

Perhaps also to get the less used plant up to speed so there are no nasty
surprises if they are called on to deliver at full output.

Next couple of weeks are looking pretty icy. Wonder how good solar panels
are at shedding snow?

:-)



Cheers


Dave R





--
Those who want slavery should have the grace to name it by its proper
name. They must face the full meaning of that which they are advocating
or condoning; the full, exact, specific meaning of collectivism, of its
logical implications, of the principles upon which it is based, and of
the ultimate consequences to which these principles will lead. They must
face it, then decide whether this is what they want or not.

Ayn Rand.