On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 11:24:25 -0500, "Jim Wilkins"
wrote:

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
.. .
On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 07:41:38 -0500, "Jim Wilkins"
wrote:

"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn
wrote:

Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back...

There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was
tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without
telling
the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun.
In
fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only
the
survey managers did.

They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone
in
their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know"
responses
was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget.

In other words, people don't lie about it.

That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the
government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people.
Your logic is unusually sloppy here.

"My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the
truth, while other gun owners are liars?

There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the
pollster
nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database.

Now, to complicate the issue, Zogby Analytics dealt with the
question
from another angle in a survey they did in 2015. They asked "If a
national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you
determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none
of their business?"

It turns out that was a bad question, for this reason: 36% of total
survey respondants answered in the negative. But 35% of those who
had
already told the pollster they DO have a gun also answered in the
negative!

http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/...4af529b00_.pdf

So which question were they answering -- whether they would tell the
truth, or whether they just think it's none of the pollster's
business?

This was pretty weird, coming from Zogby, which is right-leaning but
also very high-quality pollster.

I have no dog in this fight, but here's my working conclusion: Based
on the Zogby study, it appears that admitted gun owners have the
same
reaction as others to the question, and that, despite their negative
reaction to the two-part question, they're telling the truth. In
fact,
they already did admit they have a gun. But they also think it's
nobody's business -- even though they admitted to the pollster that
they have guns.

Based on that, I see no reason to believe that CCW holders are more
or
less honest about it than other gun owners. In such a double-blind
study, conducted by independent pollsters, they have no knowledge of
whether the pollster knows they own guns. And they were something
like
94% thruthful about owning a gun.

Your reaction is the same one I've seen for years, because this has
come up on RCM several times. Your response is anecdotal. You also
have no way of knowing if the honesty of responses has changed over
the years, as far as I know, because I've looked far and wide for
previous studies like the Zogby study, and have come up empty. If
you
know of some comparison over time, one that's scientific and not
just
based on anecdotes, please let us know.

If we are going to consider anecdotes, the decline in ownership
agrees
with my experience.

--
Ed Huntress


What the pollster knows is an irrelevant distraction.

Aha. I thought you knew something about polling. If you're interested,
find out about double-blind studies, and why they're done that way.

The CCW holder
knows they are already in the police file of actual or potential gun
owners.

A "police file"? We're talking here about private, independent
pollsters, who were running a multi-question social-issues poll.

They have little to lose by being truthful to the pollster...

Neither does anyone else, especially if you care about evidence.

even if they suspect the pollster will report them to the police.

What would they report? That someone has a gun?

Non-CCW holders risk losing their anonymity.

It didn't seem to bother the gun owners in the Zogby poll. Nor is
there any evidence that the percentage who would lie has changed over
time.

And if it hasn't, the polls showing a decline in percentage of gun
owners are quite accurate, especially because multiple polls,
conducted in difference ways by different pollsters (including the
General Social Survey) keep showing the same results.


You unjustifiably assume that people who expect to qualify for a CCW
necessarily behave the same as people who don't. A CCW is a judgement
that the holder can be trusted with a concealed weapon in public,
similar to a security clearance that divides people who (hopefully)
can be trusted with secrets from those who shouldn't. The difference
is whether the local police or a federal agent questions your
neighbors.

I assume nothing. I've read the polls, including the Zogby poll, which
showed the same levels among acknowledged gun owners and others.

You're really reaching around the barn to find some way to confound
evidence that you don't like, Jim. You're like a lawyer trying to
discredit a witness on specious grounds.

--
Ed Huntress