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Metalworking (rec.crafts.metalworking) Discuss various aspects of working with metal, such as machining, welding, metal joining, screwing, casting, hardening/tempering, blacksmithing/forging, spinning and hammer work, sheet metal work. |
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#1
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote:
The percentage of households that report gun ownership is declining, and it is not explained by fatuous and wholly unsupported claims that survey respondents have begun "lying" about gun ownership. There is no evidence that survey respondents have begun lying at increasing rates, which would have to be the case to explain away the fall *other* than by accepting that the fall is real. What survey? Conducted by whom? What was the previous survey and who conducted it. Who paid for the surveys. How many people did the survey contact. What is the actual numbers. WHat is the confidence of the surveys? Come on, post something that is possible to verify. As far as I can tell you made up the whole post and there were no surveys. And you did not say what the supposed decline was. Was it one half of one percent? Go away and come back with something on topic. Dan |
#2
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
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#3
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote:
On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan |
#4
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 05:21:16 -0800 (PST), " wrote: On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....day-have-guns/ -- Ed Huntress |
#5
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 10:10:17 AM UTC-5, Ed Huntress wrote:
.. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....erica-today--- have-guns/ -- Ed Huntress Ah skucks. The idea was to get Rudy to expend some effort so he would have less time to post OT stuff. I really do not care about how many households have guns. Dan |
#7
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On 11/18/2017 10:48 AM, wrote:
On Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 10:10:17 AM UTC-5, Ed Huntress wrote: On 11/17/2017 6:00 PM, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: The percentage of households that report gun ownership is declining, and it is not explained by fatuous and wholly unsupported claims that survey respondents have begun "lying" about gun ownership. There is no evidence that survey respondents have begun lying at increasing rates, which would have to be the case to explain away the fall *other* than by accepting that the fall is real. What survey? Conducted by whom? What was the previous survey and who conducted it. Who paid for the surveys. How many people did the survey contact. What is the actual numbers. WHat is the confidence of the surveys? Come on, post something that is possible to verify. As far as I can tell you made up the whole post and there were no surveys. And you did not say what the supposed decline was. Was it one half of one percent? Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....erica-today--- have-guns/ -- Ed Huntress Ah skucks. The idea was to get Rudy to expend some effort so he would have less time to post OT stuff. chuckle Took me all of three minutes to find one post - out of several - in which I elaborated on and identified surveys of gun ownership. You're such a chump. |
#8
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 2:03:23 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote:
On 11/18/2017 10:48 AM, wrote: So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan chuckle Took me all of three minutes to find one post - out of several - in which I elaborated on and identified surveys of gun ownership. You're such a chump. And yet you have posted no cites. What an ignorant poster. Dan |
#9
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On 11/18/2017 4:30 PM, wrote:
On Saturday, November 18, 2017 at 2:03:23 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/18/2017 10:48 AM, wrote: So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan chuckle Took me all of three minutes to find one post - out of several - in which I elaborated on and identified surveys of gun ownership. You're such a chump. And yet you have posted no cites. That's a lie. I posted the message ID in which I cited the surveys. That's a cite. Look it up, chump. |
#10
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On 11/18/2017 7:10 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 05:21:16 -0800 (PST), " wrote: On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....day-have-guns/ Surveys compile the percentage of households who ADMIT to owning a gun. Not quite the same thing. I surmise that the current frenzy over gun ownership makes it less likely for someone to ADMIT gun ownership. Survey is USELESS. |
#11
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 17:24:42 -0800, mike wrote:
On 11/18/2017 7:10 AM, Ed Huntress wrote: On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 05:21:16 -0800 (PST), " wrote: On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....day-have-guns/ Surveys compile the percentage of households who ADMIT to owning a gun. Not quite the same thing. Prove it. I surmise that the current frenzy over gun ownership makes it less likely for someone to ADMIT gun ownership. Survey is USELESS. Only because it doesn't say what you want it to say. If it did, you'd say it was unequivocal. Surmise what you want. -- Ed Huntress |
#12
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back...
On 11/18/2017 9:10 AM, Ed Huntress wrote: On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 05:21:16 -0800 (PST), " wrote: On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....day-have-guns/ |
#13
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn
wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. On 11/18/2017 9:10 AM, Ed Huntress wrote: On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 05:21:16 -0800 (PST), " wrote: On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....day-have-guns/ |
#14
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
... On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. |
#15
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn
wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... On 11/18/2017 9:10 AM, Ed Huntress wrote: On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 05:21:16 -0800 (PST), " wrote: On Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:00:57 PM UTC-5, Rudy Canoza wrote: On 11/17/2017 5:53 PM, wrote: On Thursday, July 23, 2015 at 2:41:52 AM UTC-4, Rudy Canoza wrote: Why are you responding to a two and a half year old post with whiny petulant bull****? Surveys on gun ownership are undertaken by numerous public opinion survey institutions. They all show the same thing: the percentage of the population that owns guns is falling. So if there are numerous surveys, why can you not cite at least one. Dan Here's three separate ones one link: https://gunculture2point0.wordpress....day-have-guns/ No one I know will admit to owning firearms on the phone. Yet I know at least 5 families that now have firearms that never did before. Seems the "canoing accident" theme has taken hold. --- This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus |
#16
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 07:41:38 -0500, "Jim Wilkins"
wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message .. . On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database. Now, to complicate the issue, Zogby Analytics dealt with the question from another angle in a survey they did in 2015. They asked "If a national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none of their business?" It turns out that was a bad question, for this reason: 36% of total survey respondants answered in the negative. But 35% of those who had already told the pollster they DO have a gun also answered in the negative! http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/...4af529b00_.pdf So which question were they answering -- whether they would tell the truth, or whether they just think it's none of the pollster's business? This was pretty weird, coming from Zogby, which is right-leaning but also very high-quality pollster. I have no dog in this fight, but here's my working conclusion: Based on the Zogby study, it appears that admitted gun owners have the same reaction as others to the question, and that, despite their negative reaction to the two-part question, they're telling the truth. In fact, they already did admit they have a gun. But they also think it's nobody's business -- even though they admitted to the pollster that they have guns. Based on that, I see no reason to believe that CCW holders are more or less honest about it than other gun owners. In such a double-blind study, conducted by independent pollsters, they have no knowledge of whether the pollster knows they own guns. And they were something like 94% thruthful about owning a gun. Your reaction is the same one I've seen for years, because this has come up on RCM several times. Your response is anecdotal. You also have no way of knowing if the honesty of responses has changed over the years, as far as I know, because I've looked far and wide for previous studies like the Zogby study, and have come up empty. If you know of some comparison over time, one that's scientific and not just based on anecdotes, please let us know. If we are going to consider anecdotes, the decline in ownership agrees with my experience. -- Ed Huntress |
#17
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
... On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 07:41:38 -0500, "Jim Wilkins" wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message . .. On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database. Now, to complicate the issue, Zogby Analytics dealt with the question from another angle in a survey they did in 2015. They asked "If a national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none of their business?" It turns out that was a bad question, for this reason: 36% of total survey respondants answered in the negative. But 35% of those who had already told the pollster they DO have a gun also answered in the negative! http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/...4af529b00_.pdf So which question were they answering -- whether they would tell the truth, or whether they just think it's none of the pollster's business? This was pretty weird, coming from Zogby, which is right-leaning but also very high-quality pollster. I have no dog in this fight, but here's my working conclusion: Based on the Zogby study, it appears that admitted gun owners have the same reaction as others to the question, and that, despite their negative reaction to the two-part question, they're telling the truth. In fact, they already did admit they have a gun. But they also think it's nobody's business -- even though they admitted to the pollster that they have guns. Based on that, I see no reason to believe that CCW holders are more or less honest about it than other gun owners. In such a double-blind study, conducted by independent pollsters, they have no knowledge of whether the pollster knows they own guns. And they were something like 94% thruthful about owning a gun. Your reaction is the same one I've seen for years, because this has come up on RCM several times. Your response is anecdotal. You also have no way of knowing if the honesty of responses has changed over the years, as far as I know, because I've looked far and wide for previous studies like the Zogby study, and have come up empty. If you know of some comparison over time, one that's scientific and not just based on anecdotes, please let us know. If we are going to consider anecdotes, the decline in ownership agrees with my experience. -- Ed Huntress What the pollster knows is an irrelevant distraction. The CCW holder knows they are already in the police file of actual or potential gun owners. They have little to lose by being truthful to the pollster, even if they suspect the pollster will report them to the police. Non-CCW holders risk losing their anonymity. You unjustifiably assume that people who expect to qualify for a CCW necessarily behave the same as people who don't. A CCW is a judgement that the holder can be trusted with a concealed weapon in public, similar to a security clearance that divides people who (hopefully) can be trusted with secrets from those who shouldn't. The difference is whether the local police or a federal agent questions your neighbors. -jsw |
#18
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 11:24:25 -0500, "Jim Wilkins"
wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message .. . On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 07:41:38 -0500, "Jim Wilkins" wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database. Now, to complicate the issue, Zogby Analytics dealt with the question from another angle in a survey they did in 2015. They asked "If a national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none of their business?" It turns out that was a bad question, for this reason: 36% of total survey respondants answered in the negative. But 35% of those who had already told the pollster they DO have a gun also answered in the negative! http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/...4af529b00_.pdf So which question were they answering -- whether they would tell the truth, or whether they just think it's none of the pollster's business? This was pretty weird, coming from Zogby, which is right-leaning but also very high-quality pollster. I have no dog in this fight, but here's my working conclusion: Based on the Zogby study, it appears that admitted gun owners have the same reaction as others to the question, and that, despite their negative reaction to the two-part question, they're telling the truth. In fact, they already did admit they have a gun. But they also think it's nobody's business -- even though they admitted to the pollster that they have guns. Based on that, I see no reason to believe that CCW holders are more or less honest about it than other gun owners. In such a double-blind study, conducted by independent pollsters, they have no knowledge of whether the pollster knows they own guns. And they were something like 94% thruthful about owning a gun. Your reaction is the same one I've seen for years, because this has come up on RCM several times. Your response is anecdotal. You also have no way of knowing if the honesty of responses has changed over the years, as far as I know, because I've looked far and wide for previous studies like the Zogby study, and have come up empty. If you know of some comparison over time, one that's scientific and not just based on anecdotes, please let us know. If we are going to consider anecdotes, the decline in ownership agrees with my experience. -- Ed Huntress What the pollster knows is an irrelevant distraction. Aha. I thought you knew something about polling. If you're interested, find out about double-blind studies, and why they're done that way. The CCW holder knows they are already in the police file of actual or potential gun owners. A "police file"? We're talking here about private, independent pollsters, who were running a multi-question social-issues poll. They have little to lose by being truthful to the pollster... Neither does anyone else, especially if you care about evidence. even if they suspect the pollster will report them to the police. What would they report? That someone has a gun? Non-CCW holders risk losing their anonymity. It didn't seem to bother the gun owners in the Zogby poll. Nor is there any evidence that the percentage who would lie has changed over time. And if it hasn't, the polls showing a decline in percentage of gun owners are quite accurate, especially because multiple polls, conducted in difference ways by different pollsters (including the General Social Survey) keep showing the same results. You unjustifiably assume that people who expect to qualify for a CCW necessarily behave the same as people who don't. A CCW is a judgement that the holder can be trusted with a concealed weapon in public, similar to a security clearance that divides people who (hopefully) can be trusted with secrets from those who shouldn't. The difference is whether the local police or a federal agent questions your neighbors. I assume nothing. I've read the polls, including the Zogby poll, which showed the same levels among acknowledged gun owners and others. You're really reaching around the barn to find some way to confound evidence that you don't like, Jim. You're like a lawyer trying to discredit a witness on specious grounds. -- Ed Huntress |
#19
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
... On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 07:41:38 -0500, "Jim Wilkins" wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message . .. On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database. Now, to complicate the issue, Zogby Analytics dealt with the question from another angle in a survey they did in 2015. They asked "If a national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none of their business?" It turns out that was a bad question, for this reason: 36% of total survey respondants answered in the negative. But 35% of those who had already told the pollster they DO have a gun also answered in the negative! http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/...4af529b00_.pdf So which question were they answering -- whether they would tell the truth, or whether they just think it's none of the pollster's business? This was pretty weird, coming from Zogby, which is right-leaning but also very high-quality pollster. I have no dog in this fight, but here's my working conclusion: Based on the Zogby study, it appears that admitted gun owners have the same reaction as others to the question, and that, despite their negative reaction to the two-part question, they're telling the truth. In fact, they already did admit they have a gun. But they also think it's nobody's business -- even though they admitted to the pollster that they have guns. They regretted their hasty answer. The "pollsters" might have been burglars. We've been warned about fake utility employees. https://getsafe.com/are-burglars-cas...me-four-scams/ Based on that, I see no reason to believe that CCW holders are more or less honest about it than other gun owners. In such a double-blind study, conducted by independent pollsters, they have no knowledge of whether the pollster knows they own guns. And they were something like 94% thruthful about owning a gun. CCW holders are a self-selected group who expected to pass a background check, not a random sample. -jsw |
#20
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
"Ed Huntress" wrote in message
... On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 11:24:25 -0500, "Jim Wilkins" wrote: The CCW holder knows they are already in the police file of actual or potential gun owners. A "police file"? We're talking here about private, independent pollsters, who were running a multi-question social-issues poll. The laptop in the cruiser brings up CCW information when you type in an address, that "police file". You keep pretending that what the pollster knows or doesn't affects what sensitive personal information a security-conscious individual is willing to risk sharing with a stranger. Don't forget that expert professional surveys gave Hillary the election. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politi...htmlstory.html "Overall, SurveyMonkey estimates Clinton's chances of winning at 96%." We know the election was fair because the Dems assured us there was no voter fraud. -jsw |
#21
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 12:59:06 -0500, "Jim Wilkins"
wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message .. . On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 07:41:38 -0500, "Jim Wilkins" wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message ... On Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:23:20 -0600, Martin Eastburn wrote: Maybe having one is becoming more private than in years back... There was a project run a few years ago in which this point was tested. They surveyed people with CCWs on gun issues, without telling the respondants that they (the researchers) knew they had a gun. In fact, the questioners didn't know their subjects had a gun. Only the survey managers did. They were testing to see how many would lie when asked if anyone in their home had a gun. The total of "lies/forget/don't know" responses was either 4% or maybe 6%; I forget. In other words, people don't lie about it. That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database. Now, to complicate the issue, Zogby Analytics dealt with the question from another angle in a survey they did in 2015. They asked "If a national pollster asked you if you owned a firearm, would you determine to tell him or her the truth or would you feel it was none of their business?" It turns out that was a bad question, for this reason: 36% of total survey respondants answered in the negative. But 35% of those who had already told the pollster they DO have a gun also answered in the negative! http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/...4af529b00_.pdf So which question were they answering -- whether they would tell the truth, or whether they just think it's none of the pollster's business? This was pretty weird, coming from Zogby, which is right-leaning but also very high-quality pollster. I have no dog in this fight, but here's my working conclusion: Based on the Zogby study, it appears that admitted gun owners have the same reaction as others to the question, and that, despite their negative reaction to the two-part question, they're telling the truth. In fact, they already did admit they have a gun. But they also think it's nobody's business -- even though they admitted to the pollster that they have guns. They regretted their hasty answer. Oh, Jesus. Now you're a mind reader. The "pollsters" might have been burglars. We've been warned about fake utility employees. https://getsafe.com/are-burglars-cas...me-four-scams/ You never know. Did you say you live in Paranoia, NH? Based on that, I see no reason to believe that CCW holders are more or less honest about it than other gun owners. In such a double-blind study, conducted by independent pollsters, they have no knowledge of whether the pollster knows they own guns. And they were something like 94% thruthful about owning a gun. CCW holders are a self-selected group who expected to pass a background check, not a random sample. -jsw For this study, they were added to a random sample, which served at the control group, to tune out the bias to the interviewers that would come from everyone saying they had guns. They were coded and only the poll administrators had the data connecting the numbers to the data. Nobody had the names after the list was coded. -- Ed Huntress |
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 13:25:34 -0500, "Jim Wilkins"
wrote: "Ed Huntress" wrote in message .. . On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 11:24:25 -0500, "Jim Wilkins" wrote: The CCW holder knows they are already in the police file of actual or potential gun owners. A "police file"? We're talking here about private, independent pollsters, who were running a multi-question social-issues poll. The laptop in the cruiser brings up CCW information when you type in an address, that "police file". But what does that have to do with an independent social-issues poll? The records are private in most states: http://www.concealedcarryfans.com/co...public-record/ You keep pretending that what the pollster knows or doesn't affects what sensitive personal information a security-conscious individual is willing to risk sharing with a stranger. I'm not pretending anything. I reported the data from the Zogby poll. Did you look at it? I even provided a link. Don't forget that expert professional surveys gave Hillary the election. http://www.latimes.com/nation/politi...htmlstory.html "Overall, SurveyMonkey estimates Clinton's chances of winning at 96%." We know the election was fair because the Dems assured us there was no voter fraud. -jsw You sould read better sources. Clinton finished, the day before the election, with a 3.2% popular-vote poll advantage: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nson-5949.html She won the popular vote by 2.1%. Getting it right to 1.1%, nationwide, with results close to 50%, is spectacularly good poll accuracy. Once the numbnuts got ahold of it, though, they totally screwed up the reporting on poll accuracy. -- Ed Huntress |
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Mon, 20 Nov 2017 21:00:59 -0500, Joseph Gwinn
wrote: Then we follow the FBI, and not the various polls. OK? I've been using FBI/UCR data since the days I had to go to a major library and look the numbers up on computer printouts. I can't think of any contradictions between the FBI and the Zogby poll linked to above. The Zogby poll cited just above says nothing about the trends in the US gun inventory, increasing or decreasing. When we disciussed this in 2016, the cited polls claimed decrease; this is directly contradicted by the FBI data. In round numbers, it was 30 million new guns per year, adding to an existing inventory of order 300 million guns, or 10% increase per year. I give the FBI far more weight than any poll. Joe Gwinn But...but...but its only a few old gun owners adding to their stockpile of nasty people killer weapons that are buying that 30 million guns a year!!! Snerk! Gunner --- This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus |
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Mon, 20 Nov 2017 20:23:31 -0800, Gunner Asch
wrote: On Mon, 20 Nov 2017 21:00:59 -0500, Joseph Gwinn wrote: Then we follow the FBI, and not the various polls. OK? I've been using FBI/UCR data since the days I had to go to a major library and look the numbers up on computer printouts. I can't think of any contradictions between the FBI and the Zogby poll linked to above. The Zogby poll cited just above says nothing about the trends in the US gun inventory, increasing or decreasing. When we disciussed this in 2016, the cited polls claimed decrease; this is directly contradicted by the FBI data. In round numbers, it was 30 million new guns per year, adding to an existing inventory of order 300 million guns, or 10% increase per year. I give the FBI far more weight than any poll. Joe Gwinn But...but...but its only a few old gun owners adding to their stockpile of nasty people killer weapons that are buying that 30 million guns a year!!! Snerk! Gunner You have three problems with that, Gunner. First, I don't remember any year reaching 30 million. Maybe, but I don't think so. The number reported by the FBI for 2015 was 15.2 million. Second, the number confiscated, lost, or damaged and destroyed is enough to keep the total down, or we'd have well over a billion guns by now. I don't think so. Third, the average number of guns owned per gun owner HAS gone up, but I'm not going looking for the statistics on that. -- Ed Huntress |
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Mon, 20 Nov 2017 21:00:59 -0500, Joseph Gwinn
wrote: On Nov 20, 2017, Ed Huntress wrote (in ): big snip BTW, here are the stats on gun sales and a few other things in very compact, graphical form, from ATF, FBI, GSS, etc.: https://www.npr.org/2016/01/05/46201...by-the-numbers The total was only 3 million in 2001. The record was 27 million, reached in 2016. Sales are off by something like 25% in 2017. -- Ed Huntress |
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 10:35:21 -0500, Ed Huntress wrote:
That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database Jim has a point that CCWs are a biased sample. Try this Gedankenexperimant: what if they asked convicted felons instead of CCWs? They would have to answer NO, regardless of whether they have the gun at home or not. Having said that, I suspect that CCWs are much more consistent on this point with the general population than CFs |
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Declining percentage of households that report gun ownership
On Thu, 23 Nov 2017 01:07:34 -0000 (UTC), Przemek Klosowski
wrote: On Sun, 19 Nov 2017 10:35:21 -0500, Ed Huntress wrote: That only proves CCW holders don't mind revealing information the government already possesses, and says -nothing- about other people. Your logic is unusually sloppy here. "My" logic? By what logic do you conclude that CCW holders tell the truth, while other gun owners are liars? There isn't any. This was a double-blind test -- neither the pollster nor the subject knew that they were chosen from a CCW database Jim has a point that CCWs are a biased sample. There is a potential for bias. Further comments in this thread indicate that there probably wasn't any actual bias. Try this Gedankenexperimant: what if they asked convicted felons instead of CCWs? They would have to answer NO, regardless of whether they have the gun at home or not. Convicted felons have nothing to do with the research results we were talking about. The bias there is based on a risk of being jailed. The incentive there is 'way over the top. Having said that, I suspect that CCWs are much more consistent on this point with the general population than CFs No doubt. g When social-science researchers look for potential bias, and try to design tests to measure it, they separate cases where there is an obvious or likely incentive for bias, from those that have no such known motive or incentive. Very often, the "obvious" bias turns out to be nonexistent, in terms of results. The problems tend to fall on those that indicate a bias, and a correlation that goes with the bias, but no obvious reason for it. That can make survey designers tear their hair out. But if they can measure and predict it, it doesn't affect the results. It's a neat and satisfying field for very smart people who have good insights. I used to live a few blocks from the Gallup and Public Opinion Research offices in Princeton, NJ, and the sons and daughters of workers there, who were my high school classmates, were some of the brainiest people I've ever known. -- Ed Huntress |
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