On Sun, 13 Sep 2015 21:38:49 -0400, "J. Clarke"
wrote:

In article ,
says...

On Sun, 13 Sep 2015 19:15:21 -0400, Ed Pawlowski wrote:

On 9/13/2015 5:38 PM, John McCoy wrote:



And, manufacturing cost is a chicken and egg thing - now
it is very high (Toyota looses $100,000 on every one
they build), and while the expectation is that if
they're built in large volumes cost will come down, it's
questionable if anyone will be willing to take the losses
while building the volume.

Those are the two reasons why I say they should be
introduced in a captive market like the post office.
You immediately get a substantial volume (since all
post office trucks are the same), and you don't need
much refueling infrastructure.

The third thing hanging over the head of fuel cell
vehicles is efficiency. End-to-end (i.e. including
the cost of making the hydrogen) they are substantially
less efficient than plug-in electrics. If recharging
stations continue to appear at the rate they have been,
electic cars will capture the market before fuel-cell
has a chance.

John


Sounds a bit like Edison/Tesla, DC/AC. Where do we invest?

We probably should be investing in both until there is a clear winner.
I don't know if it is 5 years or 50,000 years. but oil will run out.

Nonsense. There is no point in investing until it's needed. As/if
oil "runs out" it won't happen overnight. The cost of oil will
increase

Eventually. Remember, right now we seem to be having the opposite
problem.

Exactly. The price of oil will most likely stabilize (my guess
$40-$50/bbl) because OPEC has been effectively busted. Fracking and
shale will effectively buffer prices.

and there will be plenty of time to develop whatever
infrastructure will be needed. It's far better to allow this to
happen than force the issue. Picking winners and losers now is a
fools game. Government doing it is far, far, worse.

Yep. Californica demanding electric cars be sold as a condition of
being allowed to do business in their state is just evil. The sad part
is that other states are following their model.

That's not the worst of it. Government has no business picking
winners and losers. It hasn't anymore the expertise to do this than
the Politbuto had growing wheat. All it can do is transfer my money
to government bureaucrats and politicians' cronies.