wrote in message news
On Tue, 24 Sep 2013 14:05:10 -0400, Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Tue, 24 Sep 2013 11:12:42 -0500, Leon wrote:

"Lew Hodgett" wrote:
"Lew Hodgett" wrote:

My guess is that in 10 years or less, the majority of vehicles
manufactured will be electric.
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wrote:

I'm not quite that optimistic, but I can envision it happening
within
the next quarter century. With entrepreneurs like Tesla fully
committed to electric vehicle promotion, it will happen sooner than
later. Add onto that the fact that the Tesla *looks damned good*
IMHO,
the electric car field has nowhere to go except up.
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That 10 year number comes from the industry itself, not me,
I'm just the messenger.

Lew
Well first Lew, you say "your guess" is that in 10 years or less the
"majority" of vehicles will be electric. Now you say this number comes
from the industry.
That industry naturally will make that claim, it's make it or break it
time. That industry needs an enormous infusion of cash from investors
to
be able to mass produce a vehicle that will actually perform and go the
distance and be at least equal in amenities as the much much lower price
vehicles available right now with gasoline/diesel engines.

I hope that 10 years is a realistic and achievable time frame but I
don't
see the trend growing that fast. It seems to be growing fast because
of
all of the attention it is getting but I am still seeing, in Houston,
the
vast majority of new vehicles being equipped with the traditional
internal
combustion engine. Many more hurdles will have to be over come before
the
"majority of new vehicle buyers make the switch.
My bet is that in ten years there will be FEWER electric and hybrid
cars on the market than there are now. Cars won't be smaller or get
much better mileage and barring (even more) government meddling, gas
won't be much more expensive in a decade, either. Two decades, even.

Mercedes, IIRC, suggests they will have a "self-driving car" by the end
of the decade. I expect an increase in mass transit, and fewer cars. A
self-driving car would seem to support various forms of "sharing".

Self-driving cars, or some subset of such, is a definite possibility.
Mass transit, not a chance. No one wants it and there is no money to
pay for it if they did.
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Seattle mass transit, they say, has record ridership but according to the
politicos, they are going to have to raise taxes on everyone to keep it
running. Now that's an efficient system. The plan is to raise vehicle
license rate so those of us that don't use the public system get to pay for
it.