On Sun, 28 Jul 2013 09:59:34 -0500, pilgrim wrote:
On Sat, 27 Jul 2013 17:40:38 -0700, Winston_Smith
wrote:

Snip
I assume computers will divide into personal
entertainment machines and server based commercial operations. That
means the generic desktop will likely cease to exist.
Snip

Winston,

Will you please say more about this? I've heard a lot about this, but I
never have understood what I've heard. All education will be appreciated.

Thanks in advance,

It's really just a personal conclusion on my part based on what I see
evolving in the marketplace.

I'm a lover of the long obsolete Pocket PC which runs a simplified
form of Windows. Not that I love windows but that machine is a full up
windows computer with a simplified version of the Office package on it
when it comes out of the box. And fits in my shirt pocket with room to
spare.

The flaw in the business model was that once they sell the hardware
and maybe a few applications, there is no more income stream.

I bought my first one in 2003. At that time cell phones were big,
expensive, stupid, and had a text only monochrome screen something
like a 1'' by 1.5''. Just big enough to show a phone number and a
name. All it could do was make phone calls and pretty high priced
phone calls at that.

The PPC can't make phone calls but does a decent job of everything
else within it's obvious physical limits.

Over the years, cell phones got bigger screens, color, and the
processor got smart enough to run "apps". And millions of developers
wrote them. And some apps use processing power at a server on the
network.

Cell phones put the PPC out of business but they come with a monthly
bill - good business model, not good for me. And they come with
considerable questions about privacy.

But they do do most of the things most people want a computer for. In
a great many homes they have completely replaced both the desktop box
and the land line. Plus, you get a bigger, better, and cheaper one
every year or two.

At the same time companies were giving up stand-alone computers. Hard
to maintain, easy for employee tampering, well meant or not. And
difficult to collect information into a central database. That's
essential for any sort of statistical process control, tracking
production progress from input to output, software licence management,
version updates, etc. They have gone to what looks like a personal
computer at each point of use. It most IS a PC but it's pretty limited
hardware and really functions as a dumb terminal to the server. It has
almost zero software on it. Simple and cheap and all upgrades are done
at one server instead of X stations.

So from both the consumer and commercial/industrial side of the
picture, the belch-fire V8 stand alone computer is a dinosaur. And
sales figures show that.

I don't think it's a big reach to say the powerful, stand alone, home
machine will go the way of the PPC. That's a personal conclusion and I
expect someone will pop up here to dispute it. I'd like to hear
opposing views. Only time will tell.

The laptop took over for a lot of desktops. But look at their
evolution. The netbook is fast replacing laptops for many users. It's
getting so computer screens are getting smaller and cell phone screens
are getting bigger. Net books are heavily network dependent. Android
tablets almost completely. Revenue stream.

Look at the software business models. If Gates sells you XP, it's one
sale. In theory it's limited to one computer for as long as it lasts.
It's easy to put it on several, it's easy to migrate it to a new
machine. Not good for Gates. He started talking about leasing the OS
by the year long, long ago. Many engineering applications already do.
Perpetual income streams. That means a network machine.

Cell phones - perpetual income streams and perhaps more money to be
made from tracking people and selling advertising information than
from the monthly usage charge. Same story for the 99 cent
applications.

Revenue streams for application writers. Either you work corporate or
you work the personal market. How much can I charge Joe Sixpack for an
app? You don't go to the software store and buy a box anymore. They
make their money selling it in bulk, through a network distribution
channel (with a zero per copy physical cost), to millions of users.
Users hanging on the network. And most of them generate user profile
income, if not personal then in aggregate.

Windows has had trouble establishing itself in the cell phone market.
People seem to like Android. That interface is purely geared to
personal use and to social networking and entertainment media. Windows
7 and 8 are look-alikes. Most cell phones are Android. Most tablets
are Android. That format will dominate on personal equipment. Simple,
uncluttered on a small screen, suitable for touch screen instead of
keyboard/mouse, does what Joe Sixpack wants to do. While Win7-8 can be
reconfigured to look/work like XP, it's an extra step.
Commerce/industry won't bother. They will run Linux on a heavy duty
server and give individual workstations a simple dumb client machine
with what ever screen serves their needs. The security is better too.

I'll climb off my soap box now. I'll repeat this is a personal
estimation of the future. The future likes to take screwball turns,
but so far the path as been consistent and it also makes sense - small
personal devices completely network dependant. Or stand alone, secure
commercial servers on a tightly controlled internal network. There is
not enough middle ground to support a business model. (Land lines will
go extinct before too long too.)

If anyone agrees with this, the message is to stock up on performance
computer hardware and archive your existing software for the future.

It's both a choice between what mode you want to do your computing
chores in, and how you want to trade off one time cost vs. monthly
cost, and how you want to trade off convenient and current vs.
privacy.

Full disclosu I'm in alt.survival. I'm always thinking in terms of
what if the standard way of the world goes bad. How do I live off-grid
with minimal dependence on outside products and services. If you see
the world going on forever, just getting better and better, ignore me.
You are probably right, but I'm keeping my options open.