On Wed, 27 Feb 2013 09:40:43 -0600, The Daring Dufas
wrote:

On 2/27/2013 9:10 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Wed, 27 Feb 2013 09:04:52 -0600, The Daring Dufas
wrote:

On 2/27/2013 8:16 AM, Ed Huntress wrote:
On Wed, 27 Feb 2013 08:53:50 -0500, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:


Doug wrote:

On Wed, 27 Feb 2013 05:16:38 -0500, "Michael A. Terrell"
wrote:


Doug wrote:

Agreed. I've read they will have filling stations for electric cars
too and I think they already have some as a prototype but I don't
recall where.


At the current rate, it will take hundreds of years to convert to
electric vehicles.

Why?


Think about it. The technology isn't there. The power generation
isn't there. It can take 25 years to get the permits to build & put one
power plant on line. Viable electric vehicles have been "Just around
the corner" for 100 years. Picture this: Every car in town is
electric. A massive power failure and after a few days most of them are
sitting on the road where the batteries died. How long before people
start stealing the expensive batteries to replace their failed batteries
instead of paying the dealer full retail?

Study electronics for yourself, and do some heavy math. You'll see
for yourself. There is very little excess capacity in the grid, and the
nighttime usage allows them to take some generators or controls down for
minor repairs. Without that, the whole facility is run till it needs a
major overhaul, which can take months or years. The entire grid is
aging, and a lot of equipment is well past its design life. Between the
MBAs, NIMBYs and Greenies, it's a looming crisis.

After a major power failure, half the people in an area buy
gernerators. If we have electric cars, we'll just have to buy little
trailers to carry the generators...

Seriously, electric cars are likely to have only slow and incremental
growth. The most likely scenario I've seen involves several
configurations and energy sources: all-electrics for people who have
another car; plug-in hybrids (with or without trailers g);
liquid-fuel cars (gasoline; diesel; gasohol) and CNG cars. Hydrogen
fuel cells seem, to me, to be least likely, or to require some
breakthrough that we don't know about yet. The wire-in-road electrics
sound like "a helicopter in every garage."

It will be interesting to see how all of these types jocky for market
share. Lithium-based batteries sound like they're going to be a
limiting factor for electrics, but there is always another battery
technology in a lab somewhere. Don't bet the farm or count them out.


I'd like to see fuel cells running on natural gas to supplement or
supplant power from the grid for homes. The country has ample supplies
of NG now and the power grid may go down during severe weather but the
NG service rarely fails unless it's a situation like the 100 year storm
that hit The East Coast. The technology for CNG powered cars and fuel
cells exists now and it works but like any technology the infrastructure
is not all there at this time along with the production in numbers that
would bring the price down. ^_^

TDD

All of the alternatives have limitations. The Honda Civic CNG car that
they sold until a few years ago had little trunk space and a 120 mile
range. If was good for commuters and it was popular in one of the
western states (Idaho? Utah?) where they didn't have a
transportation-fuel tax on natural gas.

For something between $3,000 and $4,000, you could buy a home
refueling station from Honda that would fill your tank(s) overnight.


Alabama Gas has been running their service trucks on CNG for decades and
the information on the new Honda lists it's range as 200+ miles
and it can be refueled in minutes at a CNG filling station as opposed to
hours for a battery charge for an electric vehicle.

Aha! So they're back in the market, eh? Is it available in the US?

If you have CNG fueling stations around, though, you're lucky. If
there are any here, I don't know about them. There's one in Newark
(don't go there on purpose, please...) and another on Staten Island.
(only about 10 miles, but the toll is $12 cash, one-way. No thanks.)

CNG has a way to go for most areas. Gas in NJ is relatively cheap,
anyway.

Like any technology,
CNG for passenger cars needs more development to make it ready for prime
time. I do think CNG is closer to practical reality than electric power
for passenger cars. ^_^

I agree. We'll be in fracking paradise before long....

--
Ed Huntress



TDD